Search

Glaciologist Rob DeConto's research on polar climate change, specifically focusing on glaciers and ice sheets, is discussed in this article. DeConto explains the differences between Antarctica and Greenland and the challenges of understanding how the Antarctic ice sheet will behave in a warmer world. He also discusses the potential dangers of marine ice sheet instability and the impact of melting ice shelves on sea-level rise. The article emphasizes the uncertainties surrounding the rate of sea-level rise and the need for further research in this area. It highlights the term "deep uncertainty" used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to describe the situation and the conservative nature of current projections. The author emphasizes the need for action to address the melting of ice sheets, as it poses a threat to infrastructure worldwide. [Extracted from the article]

Despite the crucial role of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies in modulating modern and past climate evolution, little is known about their behavior and possible forcing mechanisms during the early Cenozoic. We probe changes in the hydroclimate of southwest Australia during 62–51 Ma, based on sedimentary proxy records from the International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1514 in the Mentelle Basin. Our results reveal a transition from a less humid climate to wetter conditions at mid–high latitudes starting from the early Eocene, which suggests poleward migration of the SH westerlies. This long‐term trend is punctuated by short‐lived events of aridification during the Mid‐Paleocene Biotic Event and wetter intervals during the Paleocene‐Eocene Thermal Maximum, indicating additional short‐term meridional shifting of the westerlies. We propose that the evolution of SH westerlies was driven by the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient regulated by global warming and ephemeral growth of the Antarctic ice sheet. Plain Language Summary: The Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies, which are the dominant atmospheric circulation patterns in the middle latitudes, play a key role in regulating global and regional climate. Currently, the knowledge of past changes in SH westerlies relies mainly on the late Quaternary. Its dynamics over longer timescales, especially under early Cenozoic greenhouse climate states, remain poorly understood. The Mentelle Basin off southwest Australia was located at a more southerly location than at the present day, and was potentially under the influence of SH westerlies. To examine the long‐term hydroclimate changes in southwest Australia during the mid‐late Paleocene to the early Eocene (62–51 Ma), we measured neodymium and hafnium isotopic compositions of fine‐grained detrital sediments from a borehole (IODP Site U1514) drilled in the Mentelle Basin, in addition to clay mineralogy, and elemental abundances. Our results suggest a gradual wetting of southwest Australia since the early Eocene, which we relate to the poleward migration of SH westerlies in response to a reduced latitudinal temperature gradient. An abrupt northward shift of SH westerlies was observed during the short‐lived Middle Paleocene Biotic Event (∼59 Ma), possibly driven by ephemeral growth of the Antarctica ice sheet. Key Points: We reconstruct the hydroclimate evolution of southwest Australia during 62–51 MaThe Southern Hemisphere (SH) westerlies remained relatively stable during the mid‐late Paleocene and shifted poleward since the early EoceneProcesses related to variations of pole‐equator temperature gradients drove meridional migration of the SH westerlies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Dominant plants play crucial roles in supporting the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems. Plants can influence the spatial heterogeneity of environmental factors, as well as the spatial turnover in the composition of soil communities (i.e. β‐diversity of soil communities). However, we still poorly understand how dominant plants drive the spatial turnover in multiple ecosystem functions (β‐multifunctionality hereafter), and to which extent the effects of dominant plants are mediated by changes in environmental heterogeneity and the β‐diversity of soil communities.Antarctica supports one of the most challenging environments on the planet including low temperature and water availability. Here, we collected soil samples under three dominant plants (lichen, moss and vascular plants) and bare ground. We measured carbon storage, nutrient availability, nutrient decomposition, microbial biomass and pathogen control to calculate β‐multifunctionality.Both non‐vascular and vascular plants were associated with increased β‐multifunctionality compared to bare ground. We further showed that lichen mainly affected β‐multifunctionality through soil temperature heterogeneity and β‐bacterial diversity. Similarly, moss mainly affected β‐multifunctionality through the spatial heterogeneity of soil water content and β‐bacterial diversity. However, vascular plants did not significantly affect environmental heterogeneity. Instead, the responses of β‐multifunctionality to vascular plants were mainly driven by the β‐diversity of soil communities. These results indicate that environmental heterogeneity is important for turnover in multiple ecosystem functions in early successional stages (dominated by non‐vascular plants), while the importance of soil communities' heterogeneity becomes more significant in late successional stages (dominated by vascular plants).Synthesis. Our findings highlight the fundamental role of dominant plants in controlling the spatial turnover in ecosystem functions, and suggest that accelerated succession under current climate warming may increase bacterial β‐diversity but decrease abiotic heterogeneity, thereby leading to both increases (e.g. regarding functions related to microbial biomass) and decreases (e.g. regarding functions related to nutrient availability) in β‐multifunctionality and hence the spatial turnover in levels of ecosystem functioning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A detailed understanding of how the Antarctic ice sheet (AIS) responds to a warming climate is needed because it will most likely increase the rate of global mean sea level rise. Time-variable satellite gravimetry, realized by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment Follow-On (GRACE-FO) missions, is directly sensitive to AIS mass changes. However, gravimetric mass balances are subject to two major limitations. First, the usual correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect by modelling results is a dominant source of uncertainty. Second, satellite gravimetry allows for a resolution of a few hundred kilometres only, which is insufficient to thoroughly explore causes of AIS imbalance. We have overcome both limitations by the first global inversion of data from GRACE and GRACE-FO, satellite altimetry (CryoSat-2), regional climate modelling (RACMO2), and firn densification modelling (IMAU-FDM). The inversion spatially resolves GIA in Antarctica independently from GIA modelling jointly with changes of ice mass and firn air content at 50 km resolution. We find an AIS mass balance of - 144 ± 27 Gt a -1 from January 2011 to December 2020. This estimate is the same, within uncertainties, as the statistical analysis of 23 different mass balances evaluated in the Ice sheet Mass Balance Inter-comparison Exercise (IMBIE ;). The co-estimated GIA corresponds to an integrated mass effect of 86 ± 21 Gt a -1 over Antarctica, and it fits better with global navigation satellite system (GNSS) results than other GIA predictions. From propagating covariances to integrals, we find a correlation coefficient of - 0.97 between the AIS mass balance and the GIA estimate. Sensitivity tests with alternative input data sets lead to results within assessed uncertainties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cenozoic sediments from the continental rise off the George V Land consist of silty/clayey facies variably rich in diatom ooze; these sediments hold a record of the glacial history of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin and are important for estimating the contribution of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet to global sea level changes during past transition to warmer climates. This is fundamental to predict future scenarios related to the global warming. The petrophysical properties of Antarctic marine sediments are influenced by the ice sheet dynamics and may affect the amplitude of seismic reflections. Through a seismic‐to‐well tie procedure, we investigate the origin of high amplitude reflections from Miocene‐early Pliocene deposits identified in two seismic lines crossing at the Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 318 drill site U1359. Downhole and core log measurements are preconditioned and merged to obtain complete velocity and density records from the sea floor to the bottom of the deepest of the four wells drilled at this site. We generate a synthetic trace by convolving the reflectivity series with the seismic wavelet obtained from the sea‐floor reflection and match the synthetic trace to the seismic data with a time variant cross‐correlation procedure. This procedure established a robust time‐depth relationship, not achievable from the available small‐offset seismic data. To our knowledge, this is the first seismic‐to‐well tying in the George V Land area. Based on results from synthetic data, the anomalous high amplitude seismic package can be linked to changes in density of sediments. Such changes are interpreted as representative for the alternation of diatom‐rich (warm climate) and silty‐clay layers with ice‐rafted debris (cold climate) inside the deposits. We suggest that the analysis of the characteristics and the distribution of similar seismic anomaly around Antarctica can give insight into the modality of past Antarctic ice sheet dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The stability of contemporary ice shelves is under threat due to global warming, and the geological records in the Ross Sea offer such an opportunity to test the linkage between them. However, the absence of calcareous microfossils in the sediments of the Ross Sea results in uncertainties in establishing a precise chronology for studies. Hence, three sediment cores were collected and studied in terms of radiocarbon dating, magnetic susceptibility, and sediment grain size to reconstruct the environmental processes in the Ross Sea since the last glacial period. The main results are as follows: (1) two grain-size components were identified for the studied cores, which can be correlated to ice-shelf and sea-ice transport, respectively; (2) due to old-carbon contamination and an inconsistent carbon reservoir, the radiocarbon dates were generally underestimated, and as an alternative, changes in magnetic susceptibility of the studied cores can be tuned to the ice-core records to establish a reliable age–depth model and; (3) integrating sediment grain-size changes and comparisons with other paleoenvironmental proxies in the Antarctic, a process from a sub-ice sheet in the last glacial period to a sub-ice shelf in the glacial maximum, and, finally, to a glaciomarine state since the last deglacial period was identified in the western Ross Sea. Integrating these findings, the warming processes in the Antarctic were highlighted in the retreat processes of the Ross Ice Shelf in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Avian siadenoviruses infect diverse terrestrial and aquatic birds worldwide. Antarctica hosts several avian species that are susceptible to siadenovirus infection, such as penguins and South Polar skuas. However, the presence, diversity, and transmission of these viruses in Antarctic birds are poorly understood due to limited surveillance and sequence data. In this study, we performed a noninvasive surveillance of avian siadenoviruses using fecal samples collected from waterbirds at King George Island (part of South Shetland Islands, Antarctica) from late January to mid-February 2023. Polymerase chain reaction, sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis were used to investigate the occurrence, genetic diversity, and evolutionary relationships of these viruses in this unique environment. The results of these studies confirmed the presence of siadenoviruses in penguins living along the southeastern coast of King George Island. Distinct viral strains, specific to each penguin species studied, were found suggesting limited interspecies transmission and a complex viral ecosystem within Antarctic bird populations. Siadenovirus strains isolated from penguin's species were genetically distinct from those infecting South Polar skuas. An in silico 3D modeling of hexon proteins from siadenoviruses gathered from gentoo penguins permitted to detect key amino acid substitutions in the FG2 domain that may affect capsid structure and function. The persistent prevalence of siadenoviruses in Antarctica underscores the need for ongoing surveillance to understand the evolutionary dynamics of viruses in this region. This study is the first to noninvasively detect siadenoviruses in Antarctic penguins, opening a new avenue for viral research. This approach not only sheds light on viral dynamics but also contributes to the conservation of Antarctica's unique wildlife and biodiversity, especially in the face of increasing global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ocean is the main heat reservoir in Earth's climate system, absorbing most of the top-of-the-atmosphere excess radiation. As the climate warms, anomalously warm and fresh ocean waters in the densest layers formed near Antarctica spread northward through the abyssal ocean, while successions of warming and cooling events are seen in the deep-ocean layers formed near Greenland. The abyssal warming and freshening expands the ocean volume and raises sea level. While temperature and salinity characteristics and large-scale circulation of upper 2000 m ocean waters are well monitored, the present ocean observing network is limited by sparse sampling of the deep ocean below 2000 m. Recently developed autonomous robotic platforms, Deep Argo floats, collect profiles from the surface to the seafloor. These instruments supplement satellite, Core Argo float, and ship-based observations to measure heat and freshwater content in the full ocean volume and close the sea level budget. Here, the value of Deep Argo and planned strategy to implement the global array are described. Additional objectives of Deep Argo may include dissolved oxygen measurements, and testing of ocean mixing and optical scattering sensors. The development of an emerging ocean bathymetry dataset using Deep Argo measurements is also described. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are melting and releasing additional freshwater into the Southern Ocean. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is typically unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous modelling studies that have imposed additional Antarctic meltwater have demonstrated regional impacts on Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as remote changes in atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, have been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater–climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater Input from Antarctica (SOFIA) initiative brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input along with key aspects of the uncertainty. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean–sea ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations using a common experimental design, open data archiving, and facilitating scientific collaboration, SOFIA aims to move the community toward better constraining our understanding of the climate system response to Antarctic melt. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Oligocene (33.9–23.03 Ma) was characterised by generally warm climates, with flattened meridional temperature gradients while Antarctica retained a significant cryosphere. This makes the Oligocene an imperfect analogue to long-term future climate states with unipolar icehouse conditions. Although local and regional climate and environmental reconstructions of Oligocene conditions are available, the community lacks synthesis of regional reconstructions. In order to provide a comprehensive overview of marine and terrestrial climate and environmental conditions in the Oligocene, as well as a reconstruction of trends through time, we here review marine and terrestrial proxy records and numerical climate model simulations of the Oligocene. Results display weaker temperature gradients during the Oligocene compared to modern times, with generally warm poles and colder-than-modern temperatures around the equator. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) show similar trends to the land temperatures, with warm temperatures around the mid and high latitudes (~60–90°) of especially the Southern Hemisphere. Vegetation-based precipitation reconstructions of the Oligocene suggest drier conditions compared to modern times, in particular around the equator. When compared to proxy-based data, climate modelling approaches overestimate Oligocene precipitation in most areas, in particular the tropics. Temperature around the mid to high latitudes is generally underestimated in models compared to proxy data and tend to overestimate the warming in the tropics. In line with previous conclusions models underestimate polar amplification and the equator-to-pole heat distribution that prevailed during the Oligocene. Despite prevalent glaciation on Antarctica, the Oligocene "icehouse" experienced warm global average temperatures while still maintaining a unipolar icehouse state. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A discussion is presented of the effects generated by the imbalance between the insolation energy of polar-day zones and the radiation energy of polar-night zones on multicentennial changes in the Earth's climate. The dependence of this imbalance on the Earth's orbital parameters is determined. The energy imbalance curves are compared with the known temperature curves for the polar regions, which have been estimated from the results of an analysis of ice cores taken in Antarctica and Greenland. The curves clearly reveal a difference between the contributions of cosmic and terrestrial factors to the temperature profiles for the regions in question and demonstrate a synchronicity of these factors. Algorithms are obtained for calculating the magnitude of fluctuations in the size of the Earth's polar caps relative to their averages. The results obtained within the assumptions taken in this work enable predictions to be made about the development of the current global warming and about changes in the size of the Arctic and Antarctic polar caps. It is predicted that over the next three millennia, changes in the Earth's orbital parameters will contribute to the slow melting of the northern polar cap. Then, the trend for a new growth of the northern polar cap will again manifest itself. In the Southern Hemisphere, a trend towards increased glaciation has already formed. Influenced by the cosmic factor, it will intensify over the next 20 000 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. This study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi‐latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre‐industrial. All these multi‐latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid‐to‐late 21st century SSP2‐4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre‐industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (∼15°S ‐ 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss. Plain Language Summary: Large portions of the Antarctic ice sheet are imminently vulnerable to melting as global temperatures rise over the 21st century. This melt would lead to consequential sea level rise intensifying coastal flooding and causing large economic and ecological costs. One idea to slow global warming and limit such climate risks, is to deliberately cool the planet by placing reflective particles in the atmosphere to deflect sunlight before it warms the Earth's surface. This idea is called stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI). Here, our computer simulations show that Antarctic ice loss can be slowed by using SAI, however, the results depend on the location of the aerosol injection (Equator, tropics, or high latitudes). We show that putting the particles between 30°N and 30°S with the majority placed in the southern hemisphere has the best potential to slow 21st century Antarctic ice loss in our computer simulations. This study is an example of how various SAI strategies (such as, where to put these particles) can lead to very different regional climate impacts—a result that decision makers must thoroughly consider. Key Points: Antarctic atmospheric circulation responds differently to stratospheric aerosol injections that vary by amount and injection latitude(s)Changes to the coastal winds impacts surface ice accumulation and shelf ocean temperatures near ice shelvesSpecific injection strategies can slow 21st century ice loss and avoid identified thresholds pertaining to Antarctic tipping points [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rising global sea levels are one of many impacts, the current anthropogenic global warming poses to humanity. The Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) has the potential to contribute several meters of sea level rise over the next few centuries. To predict future sea level rise contributions from ice sheets, both global and regional climate model (RCM) outputs are used as forcing in ice sheet model simulations. While the impact of different global models on future projections is well-studied, the impact of different regional models on the evolution of the AIS is not well-constrained. In our study, we investigated the impact of the choice of present-day reference RCM forcing on the evolution of the AIS. We used the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) to study the AIS in a constant forcing quasi-equilibrium state and under future projection s, combining present-day RCM output with global climate model projections. Our study shows that the choice of RCM reference forcing results in uncertainties of future sea level rise predictions of 8.7 (7.3–9.5) cm in the year 2100 and 24.3 (16.3–46.5) cm in 2300 under the RCP8.5 scenario. Those uncertainties are of the same order of magnitude as the choice of the underlying ice sheet model parameterization and global climate model. Additionally, our study shows that the choice of RCM reference affects the extent of grounding line retreat in West Antarctica in future projections and can result in the potential long-term collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in quasi-equilibrium simulations. Our study therefore highlights the importance, of a careful choice of RCM reference forcing for simulations of the AIS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Radio Echo Sounding (RES) surveys conducted in May 2010 and April 2011 revealed a 2 km2 flat area with increased bed reflectivity at the base of Isunnguata Sermia at the western margin of the Greenland Ice Sheet. This flat reflector was located within a localized subglacial hydraulic potential (hydropotential) minimum, as part of a complex and elongated trough system. By analogy with comparable features in Antarctica, the initial interpretation of such a feature was a potential subglacial lake. In September 2013 a co‐located seismic survey revealed a 1,750 m by 540 and 37 m thick stratified lens‐shaped bedform at the base of a subglacial trough system. Amplitude Versus Angle (AVA) analysis yields a derived reflection coefficient R = 0.09 ± 0.14 indicative of consolidated sediments possibly overlain by dilatant till. The bed and flank on the northern side of the trough consist of unconsolidated, possibly water‐bearing sediments with R = −0.10 ± 0.08, whereas on the southern side it consists of more consolidated material. We interpret the trough as a key component of the wider subglacial drainage network, for which the sediments on its northern side act as a localized water‐storage reservoir. Given the observation of seasonally forming and rapidly draining supraglacial meltwater lakes in this area, we interpret the lens‐shaped bedform as deposited by episodically ponding meltwater within the subglacial trough system. Our results highlight the importance of transient subglacial hydrological and sedimentological processes such as drainage events for the interaction of ice sheets and their substrates, to understand ice dynamics in a warming climate. Plain Language Summary: A ground based radar survey in West Greenland showed an unusually flat, highly reflective zone in an otherwise rough bed suggesting a possible subglacial lake beneath the ice. The highly reflective zone was part of a drainage system transporting meltwater under the ice sheet. We performed a detailed seismic survey across the area which, unlike radar signals, has the advantage of penetrating through the overlying ice into any rock, sediments and water below it. Analysis of our reflection data reveal that the flat area was in fact an elongated lens‐shaped bedform consisting of layered (stratified) sediments. However at a larger angle of incidence, analysis showed the bedform is possibly overlain by a thin layer of water‐bearing sediments likely saturated by ponding water. Our interpretation is that episodically draining meltwater from upstream is locally accumulating beneath the ice sheet at this locality, thereby depositing the lens‐shaped bedform over many melt seasons. Key Points: Seismic data show that a subglacial lake implied by high reflectivity in radar data is in fact a lens‐shaped sediment bedformSeismic reflectivity analysis suggests the lens‐shaped bedform is possibly overlain by a thin layer of water‐bearing sedimentsThe subglacial bedform is stratified and likely deposited through episodically ponding of upstream derived meltwater [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate feedbacks between subsurface continental shelf ocean temperatures and Antarctic glacial melt using a coupled climate model. The model was forced with SSP5‐8.5 and an uncoupled projection of basal melt and calving fluxes. SSP5‐8.5 forcing with fixed pre‐industrial glacial melt warms all continental shelves, such that historically "cool" and "fresh" shelves transition to "warm." Additional glacial melt, added at depth, cools the Eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen seas, suggesting a negative feedback on basal melt—a novel result for a coarse resolution coupled model. From the Weddell Sea, along East Antarctica, and into the western Ross Sea—where continental shelves transition to a "warm" state—additional glacial melt increases temperatures at the continental shelf sea floor, suggesting a positive feedback. The sign of the glacial melt–subsurface temperature feedback is critically dependent on continental shelf properties, climate state, and the vertical distribution of glacial melt inputs. Plain Language Summary: Antarctic ice shelves lose mass as freshwater—primarily from melting at their base and when icebergs break off. We know that the rate at which Antarctic ice shelves are losing mass is increasing and we expect this freshwater input into the ocean to increase further in a warmer world. Most climate models do not include a representation of this changing freshwater input, and its climatic impacts are uncertain. One particularly important climate impact is how the additional freshwater changes the subsurface ocean temperature. If freshwater warms/cools the coastal ocean it could increase/decrease melt in a positive/negative feedback loop. But existing studies disagree about this effect and even about the sign of the feedback. We added a timeseries of freshwater input to a climate model and ran experiments with strong climate warming to investigate this feedback. The sign of the feedback varies by region. Where climate change drives a cold coastal ocean to transition to a new warmer state, we find that freshwater causes a strong additional warming (a positive feedback). Where the coastal ocean is already warm in the present day and warms in future, freshwater reduces this warming (a negative feedback). To achieve the negative feedback freshwater must be added at depth. Key Points: A glacial melt projection is added to a 1° coupled climate model under SSP5‐8.5 to investigate ocean temperature feedbacksAdditional glacial melt cools the Eastern Ross, Amundsen, and Bellingshausen seas at depth, but warms elsewhereThe addition of glacial melt at depth is necessary to generate the cooling response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Antarctic region has been experiencing some of the planet's strongest climatic changes, including an expected increase of the land temperature. The potential effects of this warming trend will lead ecosystems to a risk of losing biodiversity. Antarctic mosses and lichens host different microbial groups, microarthropods and meiofaunal organisms (e.g., tardigrades, rotifers). The eutardigrade Acutuncus antarcticus is considered a model animal to study the effect of increasing temperature due to global warming on Antarctic terrestrial communities. In this study, life history traits and fitness of this species are analyzed by rearing specimens at two different and increasing temperatures (5°C vs. 15°C). Moreover, the first transcriptome analysis on A. antarcticus is performed, exposing adult animals to a gradual increase of temperature (5°C, 10°C, 15°C, and 20°C) to find differentially expressed genes under short- (1 day) and long-term (15 days) heat stress. Acutuncus antarcticus specimens reared at 5°C live longer (maximum life span: 686 days), reach sexual maturity later, lay more eggs (which hatch in longer time and in lower percentage) compared with animals reared at 15°C. The fitness decreases in animals belonging to the second generation at both rearing temperatures. The short-term heat exposure leads to significant changes at transcriptomic level, with 67 differentially expressed genes. Of these, 23 upregulated genes suggest alterations of mitochondrial activity and oxido-reductive processes, and two intrinsically disordered protein genes confirm their role to cope with heat stress. The long-term exposure induces alterations limited to 14 genes, and only one annotated gene is upregulated in response to both heat stresses. The decline in transcriptomic response after a long-term exposure indicates that the changes observed in the short-term are likely due to an acclimation response. Therefore, A. antarcticus could be able to cope with increasing temperature over time, including the future conditions imposed by global climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surface melting is one of the primary drivers of ice shelf collapse in Antarctica and is expected to increase in the future as the global climate continues to warm because there is a statistically significant positive relationship between air temperature and melting. Enhanced surface melt will impact the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and, through dynamic feedbacks, induce changes in global mean sea level (GMSL). However, the current understanding of surface melt in Antarctica remains limited in terms of the uncertainties in quantifying surface melt and understanding the driving processes of surface melt in past, present and future contexts. Here, we construct a novel grid-cell-level spatially distributed positive degree-day (PDD) model, forced with 2 m air temperature reanalysis data and spatially parameterized by minimizing the error with respect to satellite estimates and surface energy balance (SEB) model outputs on each computing cell over the period 1979 to 2022. We evaluate the PDD model by performing a goodness-of-fit test and cross-validation. We assess the accuracy of our parameterization method, based on the performance of the PDD model when considering all computing cells as a whole, independently of the time window chosen for parameterization. We conduct a sensitivity experiment by adding ±10 % to the training data (satellite estimates and SEB model outputs) used for PDD parameterization and a sensitivity experiment by adding constant temperature perturbations (+1 , +2 , +3 , +4 and +5 ∘ C) to the 2 m air temperature field to force the PDD model. We find that the PDD melt extent and amounts change analogously to the variations in the training data with steady statistically significant correlations and that the PDD melt amounts increase nonlinearly with the temperature perturbations, demonstrating the consistency of our parameterization and the applicability of the PDD model to warmer climate scenarios. Within the limitations discussed, we suggest that an appropriately parameterized PDD model can be a valuable tool for exploring Antarctic surface melt beyond the satellite era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming intensifies atmospheric water vapor transport between ocean and land, which increases the likelihood of extreme precipitation and floods. However, accurate estimations of water vapor exchange between ocean and land are difficult due to the lack of available data and effective methods. This study developed a novel eight-direction-vector decomposition algorithm for calculating water vapor flux between ocean and land based on the ERA5 dataset, and the results showed that global water vapor exchange between ocean and land had significantly increased in the past 40 years, except for Antarctica. During 1980–2018, the average annual net water vapor inflow from ocean to land (Qnet) was 44.68 × 1015 kg yr−1, and Qnet increased at a rate of 1.48 × 1015 kg yr−1 decade−1. The intensified atmospheric water vapor exchange between ocean and land was directly caused by the increase of atmospheric water vapor content, which largely depended on the rising air temperature, and it was found that water vapor flux between ocean and land increased by over 8% K−1 with the increasing air temperature at the global average. This study also identified El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as an important contributor to the global ocean–land water vapor exchange anomalies. A strong El Niño event (MEI = 1) can result in a 1.36 × 1015 kg yr−1 (3.03%) decrease in Qnet, and a strong La Niña event (MEI = −1) can increase Qnet by 1.38 × 1015 kg yr−1 (3.09%). The eight-direction-vector decomposition algorithm was effective in ocean–land water vapor flux estimations at different spatial and temporal scales, which could provide great insights into the mechanisms of extreme precipitation events. Significance Statement: This study developed a novel approach on water vapor flux estimation (i.e., the eight-direction-vector decomposition algorithm) and achieved a high-temporal–spatial-resolution estimation of water vapor flux between ocean and land. It was found that water vapor flux between ocean and land was intensified by increasing air temperature at a rate of 8% K−1, and El Niño yielded an anomaly low net water vapor input from ocean to land at the global scale. The algorithm developed in this study can be used for estimating water vapor fluxes at different spatial and temporal scales, which is crucial for evaluating the role of water vapor flux on formations for extreme weather (e.g., torrential rainstorms and heat waves) and climatic extremes (e.g., droughts and floods). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solid precipitation measurements in Antarctica are crucial as snowfall represents the main water input term for the polar cap, and its probable increase in the coming century can mitigate sea-level rise caused by global warming. This paper presents 7 years of Micro Rain Radar (Metek MRR-2) data at the Dumont d'Urville station in coastal Adélie Land, East Antarctica. Statistics are calculated on 3 radar variables (equivalent reflectivity, mean Doppler velocity and signal-to-noise ratio) to outline the main characteristics of the radar dataset. Seasonal and interannual variabilities are also investigated, but no significant temporal trends are detected except for the seasonal mean Doppler velocity which is higher in summer and lower in winter. We then use the snowfall rate (S) data from a colocated snow-gauge to estimate the MRR precipitation profile from the radar equivalent reflectivity (Ze) through a locally derived Ze-S relation. We find the relation Ze = 43.3 S0.88. The processing method used to obtain this relation, data quality and uncertainty considerations are discussed in the manuscript. In order to give an example of application of the dataset, a brief statistical comparison of the MRR precipitation rate along the vertical with model data from the ERA5 reanalysis and the LMDZ climate model is performed, and notably shows that models underestimate heavy precipitation events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling (SA) amplifies greenhouse gas-driven global warming via changes in surface heat balance. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project projects an acceleration in SA-driven warming due to the 'warmer climate – drier soil' feedback, which continuously warms the globe and thereby exerts an acceleration effect on global warming. The projection shows that SA-driven warming exceeds 0.5 °C over extratropical landmasses by the end of the 21st Century. The likelihood of extreme high temperatures will additionally increase by about 10% over the entire globe (excluding Antarctica) and more than 30% over large parts of North America and Europe under the high-emission scenario. This demonstrates the high sensitivity of SA to climate change, in which SA can exceed the natural range of climate variability and play a non-linear warming component role on the globe. Soil moisture–atmosphere coupling induces non-linear warming via the 'warmer climate – drier soil' feedback, which exerts an accelerating effect on global warming and on extremely high temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming has been accelerating the frequency and intensity of climate extremes, and has had an immense influence on the economy and society, but attention is seldom paid to future Antarctic temperature extremes. This study investigates five surface extreme temperature indices derived from the multimodel ensemble mean (MMEM) based on 14 models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) under the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) of SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. In Antarctica, the variations in extreme temperature indices exhibit regional and seasonal differences. The diurnal temperature range (DTR) usually illustrates a downward trend, particularly for the Antarctic Peninsula and Antarctic coast, and the strongest change occurs in austral summer. In all cases, the annual highest minimum/maximum temperature (TNx/TXx) increases faster in inland Antarctica. Antarctic amplification of extreme temperature indices is detected and is strongest at the lowest maximum temperature (TXn). At the Antarctic Peninsula, TXx amplification only appears in winter. Great DTR amplification appears along the Antarctic coast and is strongest in summer and weakest in winter. The changes in extreme temperature indices indicate the accelerated Antarctic warming in future scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few ice cores from the Amundsen Sea and Bellingshausen Sea sectors of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) extend back in time further than a few hundred years. The WAIS is believed to be susceptible to collapse as a result of anthropogenic climate change and may have at least partially collapsed during the Last Interglacial (LIG) period. Understanding the stability of the WAIS during warm periods such as the LIG and Holocene is important. As part of the WACSWAIN (WArm Climate Stability of the West Antarctic ice sheet in the last INterglacial) project, the British Antarctic Survey's (BAS) Rapid Access Isotope Drill (RAID) was deployed in 2020 on Sherman Island in the Abbot Ice Shelf, West Antarctica. We drilled a 323 m deep borehole, with discrete samples of ice chippings collected that cover the entire depth range of the drilled ice. The samples were analysed for stable water isotope composition and major ion content at BAS from 2020–2022. Using annual layer counting of chemical records, volcanic horizon identification and ice modelling, an age scale for the record of 1724 discrete samples is presented. The Sherman Island ice record extends back to greater than 1240 years, providing the oldest, continuous ice-derived palaeoclimate records in the coastal Amundsen and Bellingshausen Sea sectors to date. We demonstrate the potential for recovery of a complete Holocene climate record from Sherman Island in the future and confidence in the ability of RAID samples to contain sufficiently resolved records for meaningful climatic interpretation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meltwater content and pathways determine the impact of Antarctica's melting ice shelves on ocean circulation and climate. Using ocean glider observations, we quantify meltwater distribution and transport within the Bellingshausen Sea's Belgica Trough. Meltwater is present at different densities and with different turbidities: both are indicative of a layer's ice shelf of origin. To investigate how ice‐shelf origin separates meltwater into different export pathways, we compare these observations with high‐resolution tracer‐release model simulations. Meltwater filaments branch off the Antarctic Coastal Current into the southwestern trough. Meltwater also enters the Belgica Trough in the northwest via an extended western pathway, hence the greater observed southward (0.50 mSv) than northward (0.17 mSv) meltwater transport. Together, the observations and simulations reveal meltwater retention within a cyclonic in‐trough gyre, which has the potential to promote climactically important feedbacks on circulation and future melting. Plain Language Summary: Recent research has advanced our understanding of interactions between warm ocean waters and the underside of Antarctica's floating ice shelves. But what happens to meltwater that these ice shelves release? Meltwater is fresh: it reduces the salinity of sea water and upsets the delicate balance between salty and fresh water that drives many polar ocean processes ‐ for example, the sinking of cold, salty water to the deepest regions of the ocean, which is of global climatic importance. We use high‐resolution observations and state‐of‐the‐art model simulations to determine the pathways that meltwater takes as it flows in and around the Belgica Trough in the central Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica. Meltwater is principally confined to the edges of the trough's clockwise gyre circulation. Meltwater from eastern ice shelves is generally found at shallower depths than meltwater from southern ice shelves; this explains evidence of two meltwater layers found in our observations. In addition, meltwater from eastern ice shelves is turbid, while meltwater from southern ice shelves is clear. These results will help us to better predict how Antarctica's coastal seas will respond to a warming climate as ever more meltwater is released into the ocean. Key Points: Meltwater pathways in the Bellingshausen Sea, Antarctica, are explored using observations from gliders and a high‐resolution regional modelMeltwater observed at different densities originates from different ice shelves: lighter meltwater layers originate from eastern ice shelvesMeltwater from different ice shelves is distinguished by different turbidity signatures, suggestive of different biogeochemical properties [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The oceanic forcing of basal melt under floating ice shelves in Greenland and Antarctica is one of the major sources of uncertainty in climate ice sheet modelling. We use a high-resolution, nonhydrostatic configuration of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) to investigate basal melt rates and melt-driven circulation in the Sherard Osborn Fjord under the floating tongue of Ryder Glacier, northwestern Greenland. The control model configuration, based on the first-ever observational survey by Ryder 2019 Expedition, yielded melt rates consistent with independent satellite estimates. A protocol of model sensitivity experiments quantified the response to oceanic thermal forcing due to warming Atlantic Water and to the buoyancy input from the subglacial discharge of surface fresh water. We found that the average basal melt rates show a nonlinear response to oceanic forcing in the lower range of ocean temperatures, while the response becomes indistinguishable from linear for higher ocean temperatures, which unifies the results from previous modelling studies of other marine-terminating glaciers. The melt rate response to subglacial discharge is sublinear, consistent with other studies. The melt rates and circulation below the ice tongue exhibit a spatial pattern that is determined by the ambient density stratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With progressing global warming, snowfall in Antarctica is expected to increase, which could counteract or even temporarily overcompensate increased ice-sheet mass losses caused by increased ice discharge and melting. For sea-level projections it is therefore vital to understand the processes determining snowfall changes in Antarctica. Here we revisit the relationship between Antarctic temperature changes and precipitation changes, identifying and explaining regional differences and deviations from the theoretical approach based on the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Analysing the latest estimates from global (CMIP6, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) and regional (RACMO2.3) model projections, we find an average increase of 5.5 % in annual precipitation over Antarctica per degree of warming, with a minimum sensitivity of 2 % K -1 near Siple Coast and a maximum sensitivity of > 10 % K -1 at the East Antarctic plateau region. This large range can be explained by the prevailing climatic conditions, with local temperatures determining the Clausius–Clapeyron sensitivity that is counteracted in some regions by the prevalence of the coastal wind regime. We compare different approaches of deriving the sensitivity factor, which in some cases can lead to sensitivity changes of up to 7 percentage points for the same model. Importantly, local sensitivity factors are found to be strongly dependent on the warming level, suggesting that some ice-sheet models which base their precipitation estimates on parameterisations derived from these sensitivity factors might overestimate warming-induced snowfall changes, particularly in high-emission scenarios. This would have consequences for Antarctic sea-level projections for this century and beyond. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate reconstruction of Laurentide Ice Sheet volume changes following the Last Glacial Maximum is critical for understanding ice sheet contribution to sea-level rise, the resulting influence of meltwater on oceanic circulation, and the spatial and temporal patterns of deglaciation. Here, we provide empirical constraints on Laurentide Ice Sheet thinning during the last deglaciation by measuring in situ cosmogenic 10Be in 81 samples collected along vertical transects of nine mountains in the northeastern United States. In conjunction with 107 exposure age samples over five vertical transects from previous studies, we reconstruct ice sheet thinning history. At peripheral sites (within 200 km of the terminal moraine), we find evidence for ~600 m of thinning between 19.5 ka and 17.5 ka, which is coincident with the slow initial margin retreat indicated by varve records. At locations >400 km north of the terminal moraine, exposure ages above and below 1200 m a.s.l. exhibit different patterns. Ages above this elevation are variable and older, while lower elevation ages are indistinguishable over 800-1000 m elevation ranges, a pattern that suggests a subglacial thermal boundary at ~1200 m a.s.l. separating erosive, warmbased ice below and polythermal, minimally erosive ice above. Low-elevation ages from up-ice mountains are between 15 ka and 13 ka, which suggests rapid thinning of ~1000 m coincident with Bølling-Allerød warming. These rates of rapid paleo-ice thinning are comparable to those of other vertical exposure age transects around the world and may have been faster than modern basin-wide thinning rates in Antarctica and Greenland, which suggests that the southeastern Laurentide Ice Sheet was highly sensitive to a warming climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations and modeling studies indicate that ocean and cryosphere dynamics at the Antarctic margin are rapidly evolving and will continue to do so in the face of unabated climate warming. Despite occupying a minute fraction of the world ocean's volume, local dynamics in this region may play an outsized role in the evolving global climate system. Water masses transported along and across the continental shelf influence Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) stability, Dense Shelf Water (DSW) production, oceanic heat and carbon uptake, nutrient distributions, and ecosystems. Changes in these processes may feedback onto the global climate system with significant remote consequences, including accelerated global sea level rise. Recently, Dawson et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018962) combined results from a high‐resolution ocean‐sea ice model with offline Lagrangian particle tracking to constrain pathways and timescales of connectivity along the Antarctic margin. Their findings revealed widespread circumpolar connectivity, with waters able to circumnavigate Antarctica within two decades and reach neighboring shelf regions within 1–5 years. The results provide important context of timescales that anomalies from AIS mass loss or Circumpolar Deep Water intrusions may propagate downstream and feedback onto AIS stability or DSW formation. The authors highlight the importance of along‐slope and along‐shelf currents in setting connectivity timescales and pathways. Combined with other recent studies suggesting significant changes in Antarctic regional ocean circulation in response to warming, the findings of Dawson et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018962) suggest the Antarctic margin is likely to significantly evolve over the 21st century in ways we are just starting to unravel. Plain Language Summary: Advancing our understanding of processes operating at the Antarctic margin and their evolution in a warming climate is critical to constraining estimates of global sea level rise, oceanic heat and carbon inventories, and the future of ocean ecosystems and the global climate system. Obtaining observations in the harsh, ice‐covered environment that characterizes the Antarctic margin is challenging. However, high‐resolution models that simulate ocean circulation features along and across the continental shelf provide an opportunity to gain insight on processes occurring in the region. Recent work emphasizes the interconnectivity along the continental shelf and the need to expand our understanding from individual locations to fully around Antarctica. Part of this motivation comes from the likelihood that freshwater entering the ocean from melting ice shelves will travel away from its source and impact ocean processes downstream. Additionally, warm offshore water that enters the shelf could travel and contribute to ice shelf melting further downstream. Until now, the pathways and timescales of this potential movement have remained unmapped. Dawson et al., (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018962) use a modeling approach to take a step toward filling this knowledge gap and provide an estimate of the pathways and timescales of connectivity around the Antarctic margin. Key Points: Observations and modeling studies suggest that dynamics at the Antarctic margin are evolving and projected to continue as the climate warmsDawson et al. provides an important first estimate of plausible timescales and pathways of circumpolar connectivity at the Antarctic marginImproved understanding and accurate modeling of Antarctic marginal dynamics is critical to reducing uncertainty of projected sea level rise [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The well-established temperature-dependence of growth parameters and maximum sizes of fish and other water-breathing ectotherms (WBEs) form the basis for various "temperature-size rules" for fish and WBEs. Numerous adaptationist interpretations of these rules exist, but their biochemical basis is largely ignored. One fundamental, but frequently overlooked component of the mechanism that leads to temperature-size rules, is that proteins only "work" if their native quaternary structure (or native folding) is maintained. However, proteins have half-lives are U-shaped functions of temperature, which means that higher or lower than optimal temperatures increase their rates of spontaneous denaturation in aqueous solutions, i.e., within body cells. Proteins that lose their quaternary structures cease to function and, in most cases, need to be resynthesized. Thus, protein denaturation may explain why the metabolic rates of fish and other ectotherms increase with temperatures, both above 4 °C, the temperature at which hydrogen bonding in water is the strongest and hydration of protein nonpolar groups the weakest, and below 4 °C, the regime of "cold denaturation." Considering the biochemical basis of temperature-size rules for fish and other WBEs would enable biologists to better understand adverse consequences of climate warming for marine and freshwater biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deep-time palynological studies are necessary to evaluate plant and fungal distribution under warmer-than-present scenarios such as those of the Middle Miocene. Previous palynological studies from southern McMurdo Sound, Antarctica (SMS), have provided unique documentation for Neogene environments in the Ross Sea region during a time of pronounced global warming. The present study builds on these studies and provides a new climate reconstruction using the previously published SMS pollen and plant spore data. Additionally, 44 SMS samples were reanalyzed with a focus on the fungal fraction of the section to evaluate the fungal distribution under warmer than present conditions. The probability-based climate reconstruction technique (CREST) was applied to provide a new plant-based representation of regional paleoclimate for this Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) locality. CREST reconstructs a paleoclimate that is warmer and significantly wetter than present in SMS during the MCO, with mean annual precipitation reconstructed at 1147 mm yr -1 (95 % confidence range: 238–2611 mm yr -1) and a maximum mean annual temperature of 10.3 ∘ C (95 % confidence range: 2.0–20.2 ∘ C) for the warmest intervals of the MCO. The CREST reconstruction fits within the Cfb Köppen–Geiger climate class during the MCO of SMS. This new reconstruction agrees with previous reconstructions using various geochemical proxies. The fungal palynological analyses yielded surprising results, with only a single morphotype recovered, in low abundance, with concentrations ranging up to 199 fungi per gram of dried sediment. The taxa present belongs to the Apiosporaceae family and are known to be adapted to a wide range of climate and environmental conditions. As fungi are depauperate members of the SMS MCO palynofloras and because the one morphotype recovered is cosmopolitan, using the fungi record to confirm a narrow Köppen–Geiger climate class is impossible. Overall, the study demonstrates refinement of plant-based paleoclimatic reconstructions and sheds light on the limited presence of fungi during the MCO in Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: Antarctica; global warming; Thwaites Glacier; sea level rise; climate crisis; ice melt EN Antarctica global warming Thwaites Glacier sea level rise climate crisis ice melt 121 128 8 05/12/20 20200501 NES 200501 On the Thwaites Glacier on Antarctica's western shelf, researchers are going all-out to learn what is happening deep under the surface of the ice, out of sight: How much is melting from below, where the ice comes into contact with warm ocean waters? B Davis b :My understanding is if the whole of the Thwaites Glacier were to collapse - and there's no indication that would occur - you would get somewhere between 50 centimeters (19.5 inches) and maybe 65-to-80 centimeters (25.5-to-31.5 inches) of sea level rise from this one glacier and the region of the ice sheet that it drains alone. B Davis b :The whole of the West Antarctic ice sheet, of which the Thwaites Glacier is a part, has the potential for two-to-three meters of sea level rise, if the whole of the ice sheet were to collapse. Antarctica, global warming, Thwaites Glacier, sea level rise, climate crisis, ice melt. [Extracted from the article]

Thwaites Ice Shelf (TWIS), the floating extension of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, is changing rapidly and may completely disintegrate in the near future. Any buttressing that the ice shelf provides to the upstream grounded Thwaites glacier will then be lost. Previously, it has been argued that this could lead to onset of dynamical instability and the rapid demise of the entire glacier. Here we provide the first systematic quantitative assessment of how strongly the upstream ice is buttressed by TWIS and how its collapse affects future projections. By modeling the stresses acting along the current grounding line, we show that they deviate insignificantly from the stresses after ice shelf collapse. Using three ice‐flow models, we furthermore model the transient evolution of Thwaites Glacier and find that a complete disintegration of the ice shelf will not substantially impact future mass loss over the next 50 years. Plain Language Summary: As ice is lost, global sea levels rise. Currently glaciers and ice sheets contribute about half of observed sea level rise (SLR). Some ice is lost through surface melting, but sea levels can also be impacted by ice that flows directly into the ocean. This loss of ice, from the grounded interior into the surrounding ocean, is particularly important for the Antarctic Ice Sheet. There the grounded sections of the ice sheet are sometimes surrounded by floating seaward extensions referred to as ice shelves. These ice shelves can restrict, that is, buttress, upstream flow. Here we estimate the buttressing provided to one of the largest and most dynamical glaciers of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Thwaites Glacier. The glacier is currently abutted by an ice shelf, which has become progressively smaller and weaker over the last few decades. It has been suggested that a disintegration of the ice shelf might lead to greatly enhanced ice flow. However, we find that the ice shelf does not significantly buttress upstream flow, and removing the ice shelf has little effect on SLR over the next 50 years. Key Points: Thwaites Ice Shelf provides limited buttressing to the grounded upstream Thwaites GlacierRemoval of the ice shelf changes the contribution of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to sea level rise by at most a few millimeters over 50 yearsObservations and modeling suggest that Thwaites Glacier is currently unsteady and stable [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract–A seismogenic-trigger mechanism is proposed for the activation of methane emission on the Arctic shelf in the late 1970s, which caused the onset of abrupt climate warming in the Arctic and a rapid disintegration of West Antarctica's ice sheet and ice shelves in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. This process is accompanied by the release of methane from the underlying hydrate-bearing sedimentary rocks and accelerated climate warming in Antarctica. The proposed mechanism is associated with the action of deformation tectonic waves in the lithosphere–asthenosphere system, caused by strong earthquakes occurring in the subduction zones closest to the polar regions: the Aleutian, located in the northern part of the Pacific Ocean, the Chilean and Kermadec-Macquarie, located in the southeastern and southwestern parts of the Pacific lithosphere. Disturbances of the lithosphere are transmitted at an average velocity of about 100 km/yr over distances as long as 2000–4000 km, and the associated additional stresses that come to the Arctic and Antarctica several decades after earthquakes lead to the destruction of metastable gas hydrates located in the frozen rocks of the Arctic shelf or in the subglacial sedimentary rocks of Antarctica, causing the greenhouse effect and climate warming. Moreover, transmission of additional stresses causes a decrease in the adhesion of the ice sheet to the underlying rocks, its accelerated sliding and the destruction of the ice shelves in Antarctica. The considered hypothesis leads to the conclusion that in the coming decades, the processes of glacier destruction and climate warming in Antarctica will increase due to an unprecedented increase in the number of strong earthquakes in the subduction zones of the South Pacific Ocean in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correlation is observed between changes in the level of Earth's seismic activity and increments of the atmospheric methane concentration over the past 40 years. Trigger mechanisms are proposed for methane emissions and glacier collapse in polar regions. These mechanisms are due to deformation waves caused by large earthquakes in subduction zones located near the polar regions: the Aleutian and Kuril–Kamchatka subduction zones, closest to the Arctic, and the Antarctica–Chilean and Tonga–Kermadec–Macquarie subduction zones. Disturbances of the lithosphere are transmitted over the distances of 3000–4000 km and more at a speed of about 100 km/year. Additional associated stresses come to the Arctic and Antarctica several decades after the occurrence of large earthquakes. In the Arctic zone, additional stresses affect the low-permeability structure of gas bearing sedimentary strata, causing increased methane emission and climate warming. In West Antarctica, deformation waves could trigger the acceleration and intensive collapse of West Antarctic glaciers, which has been observed since the 1970s. These waves are also capable of activating dormant volcanoes located under the sheet glaciers of West Antarctica, leading to an increase in heat flux, to the melting of ice at the glaciers' base, and to their accelerated sliding towards the ocean, as is happening with the Thwaites Glacier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctica's continental margins pose an unknown submarine landslide-generated tsunami risk to Southern Hemisphere populations and infrastructure. Understanding the factors driving slope failure is essential to assessing future geohazards. Here, we present a multidisciplinary study of a major submarine landslide complex along the eastern Ross Sea continental slope (Antarctica) that identifies preconditioning factors and failure mechanisms. Weak layers, identified beneath three submarine landslides, consist of distinct packages of interbedded Miocene- to Pliocene-age diatom oozes and glaciomarine diamicts. The observed lithological differences, which arise from glacial to interglacial variations in biological productivity, ice proximity, and ocean circulation, caused changes in sediment deposition that inherently preconditioned slope failure. These recurrent Antarctic submarine landslides were likely triggered by seismicity associated with glacioisostatic readjustment, leading to failure within the preconditioned weak layers. Ongoing climate warming and ice retreat may increase regional glacioisostatic seismicity, triggering Antarctic submarine landslides. Changes in climate preconditioned large-scale, recurrent Miocene to Pleistocene Antarctic submarine landslides through variations in biological productivity, ice proximity and ocean circulation, posing tsunami risk to Southern Hemisphere populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonlinear trends (i.e. quadratic trends, usually defined as accelerations) in Antarctic ice mass loss due primarily to the complex climate warming forcing regimes have induced large uncertainty to future sea level projection. Here, we quantify the nonlinear and spatially varying mass losses in the Antarctic ice sheet during the last two decades using the satellite gravimetry data collected by Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) and its successor GRACE Follow-On. We use a regional inversion methodology to generate the mass change time-series over Antarctica. Our findings reveal that seven regions have evidenced significant nonlinear mass change. These regions are all concentrated along the coast of Antarctica and show spatially heterogeneous mass balance nonlinear trend patterns. Among them, the Amundsen Sea Embayment (ASE) and the Dronning Maud Land (DML) are found to be particularly sensitive to short-term climate variability. The GRACE-inferred nonlinear mass balance signal can be confirmed by independent Global Positioning System (GPS) observations, and the difference between the nonlinear vertical deformation trends estimated by GRACE and GPS, especially in ASE, is likely due to the imperfect correction of the glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) effect. For Antarctic ice sheet as a whole, GRACE satellite gravimetry indicates an ice mass loss of −101.3 ± 18.0 Gt yr−1, with an accelerated loss of −6.4 ± 1.3 Gt yr−2 during 2002–2021. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study describes 16 well-dated, terrestrial glacial sedimentary cycles deposited during astronomically paced climate cycles from the termination of the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO) through the middle Miocene Climate Transition (MMCT) (15.1-13.8 Ma) in the Friis Hills, Transantarctic Mountains, Antarctica. Three locations were continuously cored (79% recovery) to a maximum depth of 50.48 m through a succession of interbedded till sheets and fossil-bearing, fluvio-lacustrine sediments. A composite chronostratigraphic framework is presented for the cores based on the previous mapping, a seismic refraction survey that defines basin geometry, and a new, integrated age model based on paleomagnetic stratigraphy that is constrained by radioisotopic 40Ar/39Ar numeric ages on two newly identified silicic tephra. The paleoecologic and sedimentologic characteristics of organic-rich lithologies are relatively consistent up-section, which implies that successively younger interglacial deposits during the MMCT represented broadly similar environmental and climatic conditions. During these interglacials, the Friis Hills hinterland was likely ice-free. Major disconformities in the section suggest a transition to colder climates, and after ca. 14.6 Ma, thicker, more extensive and erosive ice cover occurred across the Friis Hills during glacial episodes. Diamictites in the upper three cycles suggest that climate cooled and became drier after ca. 14.2 Ma. However, cyclical retreat of the ice and a return to warm climate conditions during interglacials continued through ca. 13.9 Ma. These direct records reflect a highly variable East Antarctic Ice Sheet margin but show that the ice margin became progressively more extensive during successive glacial intervals, which is consistent with a cooling trend toward more glacial values in the far-field benthic foraminifera δ18O proxy ice volume and temperature record. Age constraints show that glacial-interglacial variability at the terrestrial margin of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet was primarily paced by astronomical precession (~23 k.y.) through the onset of the MMCT (15-14.7 Ma). Precession-driven cycles are modulated by short-period (~100 k.y.) eccentricity cycles. Intervals of maximum eccentricity (high seasonality) coincide with sedimentary cycles comprising thin diamictites and relatively thick interglacial sandstone and mudstone units. Intervals of minimum eccentricity (low seasonality) coincide with sedimentary cycles comprising thick diamictites and relatively thin interglacial sedimentary deposits. Major disconformities in the Friis Hills succession that span more than ~100 k.y. reflect episodes of expansion of erosive ice across, and well beyond, the Transantarctic Mountains and coincide with nodes in eccentricity (~400 k.y.). These relationships suggest that during relatively warm intervals in the middle Miocene, the East Antarctic Ice Sheet expanded and contracted over 100 k.y. cycles, while its margins continued to fluctuate at higher (~23 k.y.) frequency. After 14.5 Ma, obliquity is the dominant frequency in δ18O records, marking a period during which large regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet grounded in marine environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Last Interglacial (LIG: 130,000–115,000 years ago) was a period of warmer global mean temperatures and higher and more variable sea levels than the Holocene (11,700–0 years ago). Therefore, a better understanding of Antarctic ice-sheet dynamics during this interval would provide valuable insights for projecting sea-level change in future warming scenarios. Here we present a high-resolution record constraining ice-sheet changes in the Wilkes Subglacial Basin (WSB) of East Antarctica during the LIG, based on analysis of sediment provenance and an ice melt proxy in a marine sediment core retrieved from the Wilkes Land margin. Our sedimentary records, together with existing ice-core records, reveal dynamic fluctuations of the ice sheet in the WSB, with thinning, melting, and potentially retreat leading to ice loss during both early and late stages of the LIG. We suggest that such changes along the East Antarctic Ice Sheet margin may have contributed to fluctuating global sea levels during the LIG. Sedimentary records from offshore of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet support two episodes of ice loss during the last interglacial period (130-115 ka), leading to elevated global sea levels under global mean temperatures similar to the present day. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the influence of the Antarctic on the global climate is crucial for the prediction of global warming. However, due to very few observation sites, it is difficult to reconstruct the rational spatial pattern by filling in the missing values from the limited site observations. To tackle this challenge, regional spatial gap-filling methods, such as Kriging and inverse distance weighted (IDW), are regularly used in geoscience. Nevertheless, the reconstructing credibility of these methods is undesirable when the spatial structure has massive missing pieces. Inspired by image inpainting, we propose a novel deep learning method that demonstrates a good effect by embedding the physics-aware initialization of deep learning methods for rapid learning and capturing the spatial dependence for the high-fidelity imputation of missing areas. We create the benchmark dataset that artificially masks the Antarctic region with ratios of 30%, 50% and 70%. The reconstructing monthly mean surface temperature using the deep learning image inpainting method RFR (Recurrent Feature Reasoning) exhibits an average of 63% and 71% improvement of accuracy over Kriging and IDW under different missing rates. With regard to wind speed, there are still 36% and 50% improvements. In particular, the achieved improvement is even better for the larger missing ratio, such as under the 70% missing rate, where the accuracy of RFR is 68% and 74% higher than Kriging and IDW for temperature and also 38% and 46% higher for wind speed. In addition, the PI-RFR (Physics-Informed Recurrent Feature Reasoning) method we proposed is initialized using the spatial pattern data simulated by the numerical climate model instead of the unified average. Compared with RFR, PI-RFR has an average accuracy improvement of 10% for temperature and 9% for wind speed. When applied to reconstruct the spatial pattern based on the Antarctic site observations, where the missing rate is over 90%, the proposed method exhibits more spatial characteristics than Kriging and IDW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We apply geologic evidence from ice-free areas in Antarctica to evaluate model simulations of ice sheet response to warm climates. This is important because such simulations are used to predict ice sheet behaviour in future warm climates, but geologic evidence of smaller-than-present past ice sheets is buried under the present ice sheet and therefore generally unavailable for model benchmarking. We leverage an alternative accessible geologic dataset for this purpose: cosmogenic-nuclide concentrations in bedrock surfaces of interior nunataks. These data produce a frequency distribution of ice thickness over multimillion-year periods, which is also simulated by ice sheet modelling. End-member transient models, parameterized with strong and weak marine ice sheet instability processes and ocean temperature forcings, simulate large and small sea-level impacts during warm periods and also predict contrasting and distinct frequency distributions of ice thickness. We identify regions of Antarctica where predicted frequency distributions reveal differences in end-member ice sheet behaviour. We then demonstrate that a single comprehensive dataset from one bedrock site in West Antarctica is sufficiently detailed to show that the data are consistent only with a weak marine ice sheet instability end-member, but other less extensive datasets are insufficient and/or ambiguous. Finally, we highlight locations where collecting additional data could constrain the amplitude of past and therefore future response to warm climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Until recently, complete information on global reptile distributions has not been widely available. Here, we provide the first comprehensive climate impact assessment for reptiles on a global scale. Location: Global, excluding Antarctica. Time period: 1995, 2050 and 2080. Major taxa studied: Reptiles. Methods: We modelled the distribution of 6296 reptile species and assessed potential global and realm‐specific changes in species richness, the change in global species richness across climate space, and species‐specific changes in range extent, overlap and position under future climate change. To assess the future climatic impact on 3768 range‐restricted species, which could not be modelled, we compared the future change in climatic conditions between both modelled and non‐modelled species. Results: Reptile richness was projected to decline significantly over time, globally but also for most zoogeographical realms, with the greatest decreases in Brazil, Australia and South Africa. Species richness was highest in warm and moist regions, with these regions being projected to shift further towards climate extremes in the future. Range extents were projected to decline considerably in the future, with a low overlap between current and future ranges. Shifts in range centroids differed among realms and taxa, with a dominant global poleward shift. Non‐modelled species were significantly stronger affected by projected climatic changes than modelled species. Main conclusions: With ongoing future climate change, reptile richness is likely to decrease significantly across most parts of the world. This effect, in addition to considerable impacts on species range extent, overlap and position, was visible across lizards, snakes and turtles alike. Together with other anthropogenic impacts, such as habitat loss and harvesting of species, this is a cause for concern. Given the historical lack of global reptile distributions, this calls for a re‐assessment of global reptile conservation efforts, with a specific focus on anticipated future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming may result in increased polar amplification, but future temperature changes under different climate change scenarios have not been systematically investigated over Antarctica. An index of Antarctic amplification (AnA) is defined, and the annual and seasonal variations of Antarctic mean temperature are examined from projections of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) under scenarios SSP119, SSP126, SSP245, SSP370 and SSP585. AnA occurs under all scenarios, and is strongest in the austral summer and autumn, with an AnA index greater than 1.40. Although the warming over Antarctica accelerates with increased anthropogenic forcing, the magnitude of AnA is greatest in SSP126 instead of in SSP585, which may be affected by strong ocean heat uptake in high forcing scenario. Moreover, future AnA shows seasonal difference and regional difference. AnA is most conspicuous in the East Antarctic sector, with the amplification occurring under all scenarios and in all seasons, especially in austral summer when the AnA index is greater than 1.50, and the weakest signal appears in austral winter. Differently, the AnA over West Antarctica is strongest in austral autumn. Under SSP585, the temperature increase over the Antarctic Peninsula exceeds 0.5°C when the global average warming increases from 1.5°C to 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, except in the austral summer, and the AnA index in this region is strong in the austral autumn and winter. The projections suggest that the warming rate under different scenarios might make a large difference to the future AnA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Hemisphere westerly winds (SWW) play a critical role in global climate, yet their behavior on decadal to centennial timescales, and the mechanisms driving these changes during the preindustrial era, remain poorly understood. We present a decadally resolved record of dust compositions using strontium and neodymium isotope ratios in mineral dust from the Siple Dome ice core, Antarctica, to explore the potential that abrupt changes in SWW behavior occurred over the past millennium. The record spans portions of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the Little Ice Age (LIA) intervals as defined in the Northern Hemisphere. We find evidence of an abrupt strengthening of atmospheric circulation during the MCA at ∼1125 CE (825 BP) that persisted for about 60 yr, indicating increased influence of Patagonia‐sourced dust. This occurs during an extended positive phase of Southern Annular Mode (SAM+)‐like conditions, characterized by high SWW velocities and a southerly shift of the main wind belt toward ∼60°S, suggesting that rapid changes in SWW strength could occur under the present SAM+ pattern. A second 20 yr long shift in dust compositions during the LIA at ∼1748 CE (200 BP) is coincident with higher dust delivery to Siple Dome, and may indicate increased dust emissions related to glacier activity in Patagonia. The new Siple Dome ice core data set demonstrates that Sr‐Nd isotopes can be used to trace shifts in atmospheric circulation on decadal timescales. Plain Language Summary: The prevailing winds that encircle Antarctica, blowing west to east, play an outsized role in global climate. Because they blow continuously over the ocean, they create ocean currents and cause upwelling. When deep ocean water comes to the surface, it releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, causing the climate to warm. Changes in wind strength and positioning modulate the release of carbon dioxide. Therefore, knowing how and why the winds shift is important for understanding how Earth's climate system operates. We use the composition of dust preserved in an Antarctic ice core to learn how the balance of dust sources changed during the past millennium. This allows us to track past shifts in the winds around Antarctica and to learn how they respond to climate changes on short timespans, such as decades to centuries. We observe an abrupt change in dust composition at ∼1125 CE lasting for about 60 yr, indicating a greater influence of dust sourced from Patagonia in South America. This dust shift occurred during a globally observed warm period, and corresponded with an interval of stronger westerly winds blowing closer to Antarctica. Our data show that decade‐scale changes can be superimposed on longer intervals of intensified wind strength. Key Points: An ice core dust provenance record from Siple Dome shows marked shifts at about 1125 CE (lasting ∼60 yr) and 1748 CE (∼20 yr)Sr‐Nd isotopes indicate changes in the relative deposition of dust from Patagonian and Antarctic sources driven by changes in windsData suggest decade‐scale changes can be superimposed on longer intervals of intensified westerly wind strength during SAM + ‐like phases [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the climate warms, the grounded ice sheet and floating ice shelves surrounding Antarctica are losing mass at an increasing rate and injecting the resulting meltwater into the Southern Ocean. This freshwater input could feed back onto climate change, particularly since the Southern Ocean is a key contributor to global heat and carbon uptake. Nonetheless, almost all existing coupled climate models have fixed ice sheets, and lack the physics required to represent the dominant sources of Antarctic melt. These missing ice dynamics represent a key uncertainty that is unaccounted for in current global climate change projections. Previous studies have inserted additional Antarctic meltwater into models, demonstrating that it can alter Southern Ocean stratification, circulation, and sea ice, as well as influence remote atmospheric circulation, tropical precipitation, and global temperature. However, these previous studies have used widely varying rates of freshwater forcing, been conducted using different climate models and configurations, and have reached differing conclusions on the magnitude of meltwater-climate feedbacks. The Southern Ocean Freshwater release model experiments InitiAtive (SOFIA) brings together a team of scientists to quantify the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater input. In this paper, we summarize the state of knowledge on meltwater discharge from the Antarctic ice sheet and ice shelves to the Southern Ocean and explain the scientific objectives of our initiative. We propose a series of coupled and ocean/sea-ice model experiments, including idealized meltwater experiments, historical experiments with observationally consistent meltwater input, and future scenarios driven by meltwater inputs derived from stand-alone ice sheet models. Through coordinating a multi-model ensemble of simulations, with data housed in a common archive, SOFIA will be able to produce a consistent estimate of the climate system response to Antarctic meltwater, as well as the uncertainty of this response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most life forms on earth, including the cold-adapted bacteria from the polar regions, are being affected by global warming. To better understand how global warming may affect Antarctic bacteria, the heat-stress response of cold-adapted Cryobacterium sp. SO1 at the transcript level was determined in this study. A Cryobacterium sp. SO1 culture was grown at 20 °C which was its optimal growth temperature and subsequently exposed to a higher temperature of 25 °C that inhibited growth for 3 h. The transcriptome of strain SO1 was isolated, and RNA-sequencing (RNA-seq) was performed and analyzed using bioinformatics tools. The global transcriptome revealed 169 differentially expressed genes (DEGs), 108 of which were up-regulated and 61 of which were down-regulated. The strain SO1 DEGs were classified into seven categories: signal transduction, DNA modification and repair mechanisms, oxidative-stress defence, metabolism-related, cellular translational machinery, cell growth-related, and programmed cell death-related genes. Strain SO1 altered those genes to cope with the heat stress. Transposase gene up-regulation, in particular, probably promoted genome transposition in an attempt to generate genetically diverse cells in the population in the hope that some will be able to withstand the growth inhibitory temperature. Overall, the findings of this study shed some light on how Cryobacterium sp. SO1, and other Antarctic bacteria in general, will probably respond to global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption on 15 January 2022 was one of the most explosive volcanic events of the 21st century so far. According to satellite‐based measurements, 0.4 Tg of sulfur dioxide (SO2) was injected into the stratosphere during the eruption. By using observations and model simulations, here we investigate changes in the chemical compositions of the stratosphere 1 year after the HTHH eruption and examine the key physical and chemical processes that influence the ozone (O3) concentrations. Injected SO2 was oxidized into sulfate during the first 2 months, and transported from the tropics to the Antarctic by the Brewer‐Dobson circulation within 1 year. In mid‐to‐low latitudes, enhanced sulfate aerosol increased O3 concentrations in the middle stratosphere but declined in the lower stratosphere. In addition to the chemical processes, sulfate aerosols also reduced polar low‐stratospheric O3 concentrations through enhanced Antarctic upwelling anomalies. Plain Language Summary: The Hunga Tonga‐Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) eruption on 15 January 2022 was one of the most explosive volcanic eruptions of the 21st century and has attracted global attention. Volcanic ash and gases entering the atmosphere could affect weather and climate processes. Recent studies have largely explored the effects on global warming of HTHH eruption, and have founded that its climate impact is not very strong. However, its impacts on ozone (O3) remains unclear. We used observations and models to analyze how HTHH eruption could influence O3. It confirms that stratospheric O3 can be affected when volcano‐induced aerosols are transported. We suggest that physical and chemical processes combine together to influence stratospheric O3 after HTHH eruption. Moreover, the effect on O3 of HTHH eruption is probably one of the reasons for the recent discovery of a larger O3 hole in Antarctica. Key Points: Volcano‐induced stratospheric sulfate aerosols are transported toward the South Pole and downwards by the Brewer‐Dobson circulationCatalytic nitrogen oxide ozone loss cycles and sulfate aerosols' radiative effects cause extra‐polar stratospheric ozone anomaliesVolcanic aerosol‐induced heterogeneous chemistry and enhanced upward transport causes polar stratospheric ozone anomalies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A seismogenic-trigger mechanism is proposed for the rapid activation of destruction of cover and shelf glaciers in West Antarctica at the end of the 20th and beginning of the 21st centuries, accompanied by release of methane from the underlying hydrate-bearing sedimentary rocks and consequent rapid climate warming. This mechanism is associated with the action of deformation waves in the lithosphere–asthenosphere system, resulting from large earthquakes occurring in the subduction zones surrounding Antarctica: Chile and Kermadec–Macquarie. Disturbances in the lithosphere are transmitted over long distances on the order of 3000 km, and their additional associated stresses, which reach Antarctica several decades after the earthquakes, leading to a decrease in the adhesion of glaciers to underlying rocks, accelerated sliding of glaciers and development of faults in them. This process, in turn, reduces pressure on the underlying gas-hydrate-bearing sedimentary layers, leading to methane emission and climate warming. This hypothesis leads to the conclusion that in the coming decades, glacier destruction and climate warming processes in Antarctica will speed up due to an unprecedented increase in the number of large earthquakes in South Pacific subduction zones in the late 20th and early 21st centuries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Airborne electromagnetic surveys collected in December 2011 and November 2018 and three soil sampling transects were used to analyze the spatial heterogeneity of shallow (<4 m) soil properties in lower Taylor Valley (TV), East Antarctica. Soil resistivities from 2011 to 2018 ranged from ∼33 Ωm to ∼3,500 Ωm with 200 Ωm assigned as an upper boundary for brine‐saturated sediments. Elevations below ∼50 m above sea level (masl) typically exhibit the lowest resistivities with resistivity increasing at high elevations on steeper slopes. Soil water content was empirically estimated from electrical resistivities using Archie's Law and range from ∼<1% to ∼68% by volume. An increase in silt‐ and clay‐sized particles at low elevations increases soil porosity but decreases hydraulic conductivity, promoting greater residence times of soil water at low elevations near Lake Fryxell. Soil resistivity variability between 2011 and 2018 shows soils at different stages of soil freeze‐thaw cycles, which are caused predominantly by solar warming of soils as opposed to air temperature. This study furthers the understanding of the hydrogeologic structure of the shallow subsurface in TV and identifies locations of soils that are potentially prone to greater rates of thaw and resulting ecosystem homogenization of soil properties from projected increases in hydrological connectivity across the region over the coming decades. Plain Language Summary: Liquid water is vital to all life on Earth; however, it is only available to life on land in Taylor Valley (TV), East Antarctica, during the brief Antarctic summer due to extremely cold and dry climate conditions. Water is released November‐February each year, providing nutrients to microbial and algal communities in the region. We used specialized instruments to locate liquid water in the subsurface and map soil water distributions to describe soil properties within TV in December 2011 and November 2018. Soil samples were collected to analyze how soil properties varied at different elevations and to determine how this variance affected soil water levels at different locations. Weather data were examined to study how climate variables affect soil water levels, and satellite imagery was used to examine snow conditions on the surface. We find that 2011 soils were typically wetter than 2018 soils, likely due to warmer climate conditions in 2011. Additionally, we found that low elevation soils were typically composed of finer‐grained sediments, which keep soil water in place for longer time periods. This research identifies areas more prone to thawing within the TV, which is important for understanding how soil organisms will be affected in a warming world. Key Points: McMurdo Dry Valleys soil properties are characterized using resistivity data from two airborne electromagnetic surveys from 2011 to 2018Soil water content in the shallow subsurface largely controls resistivity variabilityHigher percentages of silt‐ and clay‐sized particles at low elevations promote greater residence times of soil water [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]