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The world's oceans are changing, and dramatic shifts have been documented in the Southern Ocean. The consequences of these shifts to coastal benthic organisms are difficult to predict at present, as ocean warming may increase primary production and food resources for benthic consumers, whilst OA may have negative impacts that differentially affect various species and life stages. A model was developed to investigate how different scenarios of change may influence population size of the Antarctic bivalve Laternula elliptica. The model describes potential implications of both pH and temperature change on survivorship and reproductive output of a population of this bivalve species in McMurdo Sound, Ross Sea. Implications of increases and decreases in mortality rate across different life stages of the population (early, mid and late) were assessed. Additionally, effects on energetic resource partitioning and dictating reproductive potential (RP) were also investigated. Significant declines in RP, due to increased basal metabolic demand, were associated with even relatively small changes in temperature and pH, resulting in populations declining to 25 % of the starting equilibrium density within 60 years. As L. elliptica is a pivotal species to the functionality of the Antarctic coastal benthic ecosystem, wide spread repercussions are expected if populations are impacted as the model predicts. Although further model development is required to explore the ecosystem implications of the population decline described in this paper, this work allows a better understanding of the consequences of change as soon as data on the direction and magnitude of the changes affecting Antarctic seas become available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic sea ice and the cold waters surrounding the continent are key elements of the global climate system, influencing heat redistribution, oceanic circulation and the absorption of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, the Southern Ocean is predicted to warm by 1-6°C over the next century, altering sea ice extent, thickness and permanence. To better understand the connections between coastal sea ice conditions and the functioning of Antarctica's unique marine benthic ecosystems, we performed manipulative experiments on the seafloor at two southwestern Ross Sea sites with contrasting sea ice conditions. Benthic systems at both study sites were net heterotrophic during the study period (early November), with primary production most likely limited by light availability rather than nutrients. There was five times more fresh algal detrital material in benthic sediments at the site with the thinner, snow-free, annually formed sea ice, relative to the site with thicker, multiyear sea ice. This elevated quantity and quality of algal detrital matter corresponded with a significantly greater rate of sediment oxygen utilization by the benthos and an altered pathway of nitrogen regeneration (tighter coupling between nitrification and denitrification). Large benthic animals (brittle stars, Ophionotus victoriae) enhanced the efflux of dissolved inorganic nutrients from the sediment to the water column and played a greater role in nutrient regeneration at the site with more food. Although changes in sea ice characteristics in the Western Ross Sea are difficult to predict at present, large benthic organisms can be expected to have an expanded role in mediating the effects of elevated coastal productivity and detritus supply on ecosystem dynamics in this part of Antarctica. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]