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"In this paper we estimate the impact of the [U.S.] federal individual income tax on the timing of marital decisions.... Using household data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics, we estimate various models of the probability of delaying marriage as a function of the change in tax burden caused by marriage (as well as several other variables). We find that there is a significant positive relationship between the marriage penalty in a year and the probability of delaying marriage until the following year. The magnitude of the effect, however, is small.", (excerpt)

"This paper discusses new empirical evidence on the role of income tax incentives in marital decisions [in the United States]. Time-series evidence suggests that taxes have a small but statistically significant effect on the aggregate marriage rate; however, this evidence is sensitive to the time period and the measure of marriage. Additional evidence, based on household longitudinal data, indicates that the probability of marriage falls and that of divorce rises with an increase in the so-called marriage tax, and that the timing of marriage (though not of divorce) is also affected by taxes. In short, there is strong evidence that taxes affect some marital decisions.", (excerpt)