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"This paper uses pooled 1971, 1981, and 1986 Canadian census data to evaluate the extent to which (1) the earnings of Canadian immigrants at the time of immigration fall short of the earnings of comparable Canadian-born individuals, and (2) immigrants' earnings grow more rapidly over time than those of the Canadian born. Variations in the labour market assimilation of immigrants according to their gender and country of origin are also analysed. The results suggest that recent immigrant cohorts have had more difficulty being assimilated into the Canadian labour market than earlier ones, an apparent consequence of recent changes in Canadian immigration policy, labour market discrimination against visible minorities, and the prolonged recession of the early 1980s." (SUMMARY IN FRE), (excerpt)

"This paper reviews the two leading methods used to project the number of AIDS cases: back calculation and extrapolation. These methods are assessed in light of key features of the HIV/AIDS epidemic and of data on the epidemic; they are also assessed in terms of the quality of the projections they yield. Our analysis shows that both methods have tended to overproject, often by sizable amounts, the number of AIDS cases in the United States....A new method for projecting AIDS cases is proposed that exploits knowledge about the process generating AIDS cases and that incorporates readily available information about rates of new HIV infection.... Relative to the method of extrapolation, this method projects 22,000 fewer new AIDS cases for 1995 (a 36% difference). This method also projects that intravenous drug users will replace homosexual/bisexual men as the dominant transmission category for AIDS.", (excerpt)

"This article investigates the application of the three-parameter, Coale-McNeil marriage model and some related hyperparameterized specifications to data on the first marriage patterns of American women. Because the model is parametric, it can be used to estimate the parameters of the marriage process for cohorts that have yet to complete their first marriage experience. Empirical evidence from three surveys is reported on the ability of the model to replicate and project observed marriage behavior. The results indicate that the model can be a useful tool for analyzing cohort marriage data and that recent cohorts are showing relatively strong proclivities to both delay and forego marriage. Consistent with earlier work, the results also indicate that education is a powerful covariate of the timing of first marriage and that race is a powerful covariate of its incidence." Data are from the U.S. Current Population Survey for 1976 and 1985 and Cycle III of the National Survey of Family Growth for 1982., (excerpt)