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Background: Using a community-based cohort we sought to investigate the association between change in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and risk of incident cardiovascular disease including congestive heart failure (CHF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), and stroke., Methods: We identified 479,126 adults without a history of cardiovascular disease who had at least 3 outpatient eGFR measurements over a 4 year period in Alberta, Canada. Change in eGFR was estimated as the absolute annual rate of change (categorized as ≤-5, -4, -3, -2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, and ≥5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year). In a sensitivity analysis we also estimated change as the annual percentage change (categorized as ≤-7, -6 to -5, -4 to -3, -2 to -1, 0, 1 to 2, 3 to 4, 5 to 6, and ≥7%/year). The adjusted risk of incident CHF, AMI, and stroke associated with each category of change in eGFR was estimated, using no change in eGFR as the reference,, Results: There were 2622 (0.6%) CHF, 3463 (0.7%) AMI, and 2768 (0.6%) stroke events over a median follow-up of 2.5 years. Compared to participants with stable eGFR, those with the greatest decline (≤-5 mL/min/1.73 m2/year) had more than a two-fold increased risk of CHF (HR 2.57; 95% CI: 2.28 to 2.89). Risk for AMI and stroke was increased by 31% and 29%, respectively. After adjusting for the last eGFR at the end of the accrual period, the observed association remained significantly higher for CHF but diminished for AMI and stroke. A similar pattern was observed when change in eGFR was quantified as annual percentage change., Conclusion: In this large community-based cohort, we observed that a declining eGFR was associated with an increased risk of CHF, AMI, and stroke. However, when the risk of CVD events was adjusted for the last eGFR measurement, decline in eGFR per se was no longer associated with increased risk of AMI or stroke, and the association with CHF remained significant but was attenuated. These results demonstrate the importance of monitoring change in eGFR over time to improve cardiovascular risk prognostication., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) on a single occasion is associated with risk of cardiovascular events; whether the degree of change in eGFR during a 1-year period adds prognostic information is unknown., Methods and Results: We included adults who had ≥2 outpatient eGFR measurements (≥6 months apart) during a 1-year accrual period in Alberta, Canada. According to recent guidelines, we used a change in eGFR category (≥90, 60 to 89, 45 to 59, 30 to 44, 15 to 29, and <15 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)), and the presence/absence of a ≥25% change from baseline to classify participants into 5 groups: certain drop, uncertain drop, stable (no change), uncertain rise, and certain rise. We calculated adjusted rates of cardiovascular events (per 10 000 person-years) for each group. We estimated the adjusted risks of cardiovascular events associated with each category of change in eGFR, in reference to stable kidney function. Among the 526 388 participants, 76.1% (n=400 560) had stable, 2.6% (n=13 668) had a certain drop, and 3.3% (n=17 499) had a certain rise in eGFR. Compared with participants with stable kidney function, adjusted risks of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and stroke were 27%, 51%, and 20% higher, respectively, for those with a certain drop in kidney function. After adjusting for the last eGFR at the end of the accrual period, the observed association diminished., Conclusion: Clinically relevant changes in eGFR are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events. However, most of the apparent increase in risk can be accounted for by assessing comorbidity and baseline kidney function., (© 2014 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley Blackwell.)