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Plot-level photography is an attractive time-saving alternative to field measurements for vegetation monitoring. However, widespread adoption of this technique relies on efficient workflows for post-processing images and the accuracy of the resulting products. Here, we estimated relative vegetation cover using both traditional field sampling methods (point frame) and semi-automated classification of photographs (plot-level photography) across thirty 1 m2 plots near Utqiaġvik, Alaska, from 2012 to 2021. Geographic object-based image analysis (GEOBIA) was applied to generate objects based on the three spectral bands (red, green, and blue) of the images. Five machine learning algorithms were then applied to classify the objects into vegetation groups, and random forest performed best (60.5% overall accuracy). Objects were reliably classified into the following classes: bryophytes, forbs, graminoids, litter, shadows, and standing dead. Deciduous shrubs and lichens were not reliably classified. Multinomial regression models were used to gauge if the cover estimates from plot-level photography could accurately predict the cover estimates from the point frame across space or time. Plot-level photography yielded useful estimates of vegetation cover for graminoids. However, the predictive performance varied both by vegetation class and whether it was being used to predict cover in new locations or change over time in previously sampled plots. These results suggest that plot-level photography may maximize the efficient use of time, funding, and available technology to monitor vegetation cover in the Arctic, but the accuracy of current semi-automated image analysis is not sufficient to detect small changes in cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A warming Arctic has been associated with increases in aboveground plant biomass, specifically shrubs, and changes in vegetation cover. However, the magnitude and direction of changes in NDVI have not been consistent across different tundra types. Here we examine the responsiveness of fine-scale NDVI values to experimental warming at eight sites in northern Alaska, United States. Warming in our eight sites ranged in duration from 2‑23 seasons. Dry, wet and moist tundra communities were monitored for canopy surface temperatures and NDVI in ambient and experimentally-warmed plots at near-daily frequencies during the summer of 2017 to assess the impact of the warming treatment on the magnitude and timing of greening. Experimental warming increased canopy-level surface temperatures across all sites (+0.47 to +3.14˚C), with the strongest warming effect occurring during June and July and for the southernmost sites. Green-up was accelerated by warming at six sites, and autumn senescence was delayed at five sites. Warming increased the magnitude of peak NDVI values at five sites, decreased it at one site, and at two sites it did not change. Warming resulted in earlier peak NDVI at three sites and no significant change in the other sites. Shrub and graminoid cover was positively correlated with the magnitude of peak NDVI (r=0.37 to 0.60) while cryptogam influence was mixed. The magnitude and timing of peak NDVI showed considerable variability across sites. Warming extended the duration of the summer green season at most sites due to accelerated greening in the spring and delayed senescence in the autumn. We show that in a warmer Arctic (as simulated by our experiment) the timing and total period of carbon gain may change. Our results suggest these changes are dependent on community composition and abundance of specific growth forms and therefore will likely impact net primary productivity and trophic interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The intensification of coastal storms, combined with declining sea ice cover, sea level rise, and changes to permafrost conditions, will likely increase the incidence and impact of storm surge flooding in Arctic coastal environments. In coastal communities accurate information on the exposure of infrastructure can make an important contribution to adaptation planning. In this study, we use high resolution elevation data from airborne LiDAR to generate storm flooding scenarios for three coastal communities (Utqiaġvik, Wainwright, and Kaktovik) in northern Alaska. To estimate the potential for damage to infrastructure caused by flooding for each community, we generated data on replacement costs and used it to estimate the financial impact of 24 storm flooding scenarios of varying intensities. This analysis shows that all three communities are exposed to storm surges, but highlights the fact that infrastructure in Utqiaġvik (the administrative center of the North Slope Borough) is significantly more exposed than buildings in Wainwright and Kaktovik. Our findings show that flooding scenarios can complement information gained from past events and help to inform local-decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is warming the temperatures and lengthening the Arctic growing season with potentially important effects on plant phenology. The ability of plant species to acclimate to changing climatic conditions will dictate the level to which their spatial coverage and habitat-type dominance is different in the future. While the effect of changes in temperature on phenology and species composition have been observed at the plot and at the regional scale, a systematic assessment at medium spatial scales using new noninvasive sensor techniques has not been performed yet. At four sites across the North Slope of Alaska, changes in the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) signal were observed by Mobile Instrumented Sensor Platforms (MISP) that are suspended over 50 m transects spanning local moisture gradients. The rates of greening (measured in June) and senescence (measured in August) in response to the air temperature was estimated by changes in NDVI measured as the difference between the NDVI on a specific date and three days later. In June, graminoid- and shrub-dominated habitats showed the greatest rates of NDVI increase in response to the high air temperatures, while forb- and lichen-dominated habitats were less responsive. In August, the NDVI was more responsive to variations in the daily average temperature than spring greening at all sites. For graminoid- and shrub-dominated habitats, we observed a delayed decrease of the NDVI, reflecting a prolonged growing season, in response to high August temperatures. Consequently, the annual C assimilation capacity of these habitats is increased, which in turn may be partially responsible for shrub expansion and further increases in net summer CO2 fixation. Strong interannual differences highlight that long-term and noninvasive measurements of such complex feedback mechanisms in arctic ecosystems are critical to fully articulate the net effects of climate variability and climate change on plant community and ecosystem processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Few studies have clearly linked long-term monitoring with in situ experiments to clarify potential drivers of observed change at a given site. This is especially necessary when findings from a site are applied to a much broader geographic area. Here, we document vegetation change at Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska, occurring naturally and due to experimental warming over nearly two decades. An examination of plant cover, canopy height, and community indices showed more significant differences between years than due to experimental warming. However, changes with warming were more consistent than changes between years and were cumulative in many cases. Most cases of directional change observed in the control plots over time corresponded with a directional change in response to experimental warming. These included increases in canopy height and decreases in lichen cover. Experimental warming resulted in additional increases in evergreen shrub cover and decreases in diversity and bryophyte cover. This study suggests that the directional changes occurring at the sites are primarily due to warming and indicates that further changes are likely in the next two decades if the regional warming trend continues. These findings provide an example of the utility of coupling in situ experiments with long-term monitoring to accurately document vegetation change in response to global change and to identify the underlying mechanisms driving observed changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10%, 30%, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 × 30 m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high center polygon, flat-center polygon, low center polygon, coalescent low center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO2 and CH4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006-2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (i) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO2 uptake occurs at -902.3 106gC- CO2 day−1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between −438.3 and −1366 106gC- CO2 day−1) and CH4 flux at 28.9 106gC- CH4 day−1(uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 106gC- CH4 day−1), (ii) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO2 and CH4 exchange, while (iii) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO2 uptake (−166.9 106gC- CO2 day−1) and CH4 flux (2.8 106gC- CH4 day−1) with geomorphic change from low to high center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate models predict continued rapid warming for most of the Arctic throughout the next century. To further understand the response of arctic tundra to climate warming, four sites in northern Alaska were warmed for five to seven consecutive growing seasons using open-top chambers. Sites were located in dry heath and wet meadow communities near Barrow (71°18′N, 156°40′W) and Atqasuk (70°29′N, 157°25′W). Change in plant community composition was measured using a point frame method. During the period of observation, species richness declined in control plots by up to 2.7 species plot−1. Responses to warming varied by site but similar trends included increased canopy height (−0.1 to 2.3 cm) and relative cover of standing dead plant matter (1.5–6.0%) and graminoids (1.8–5.8%) and decreased species diversity (0.1–1.7 species plot−1) and relative cover of lichens (0.2–9.1%) and bryophytes (1.4–4.6%) (parentheses enclose the range of average values for the sites). The response to warming was separated into an initial short-term response assessed after two growing seasons of warming and a secondary longer-term response assessed after an additional three to five growing seasons of warming. The initial responses to warming were similar in the four sites, while the secondary responses varied by site. The response to warming was greater at Barrow than Atqasuk because of a greater initial response at Barrow. However, the long-term response to warming was projected to be greater at Atqasuk because of a greater secondary response at Atqasuk. These findings show that predictions of vegetation change due to climate warming based on manipulative experiments will differ depending on both the duration and plant community on which the study focuses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Erosion rates along Alaska's Beaufort Sea coast, among the highest in the world, are negatively impacting communities, industrial and military infrastructure, and wildlife habitat. Decreasing maximal winter ice extent and increasing summer open water duration and extent in the Beaufort Sea may be making the coast more vulnerable to destructive storm waves than during recent, colder, icier decades. Previous studies of Beaufort Sea coastal change have been limited to subaerial analyses of the shoreline. Here we describe nearshore seafloor change by comparing post-World War II (WWII) (1945-53) bathymetry data to recently acquired (1985–2018) bathymetry data and relate the observed seafloor change to adjacent shoreline change near Utqiagvik, within Stefansson Sound, and immediately west of Barter Island and Kaktovik. Within the Utqiagvik region, seabed erosion was generally highest (>1.0 m of loss) offshore of Point Barrow and along the eastern end of the Tapkaluk Islands, while there were lesser amounts of deposition (<0.5 m of gain) within the protected waters of Elson Lagoon. Sedimentation was generally highest offshore of Point Barrow, in a region of converging currents, and on the landward side of the barrier islands and spits fronting Elson Lagoon, which is likely related to a regional trend of westerly sediment transport and landward migration of the barrier islands. Within Stefansson Sound, perhaps the most notable changes from post-WWII bathymetry data compared to recent data are a switch from mixed, low erosion and deposition in 1997 to low deposition (<0.5 m) in 2018 east of the Boulder Patch, a switch from low erosion in 1997 to neutral depth change in 2018 in the channel between the north and south Boulder Patch areas, and higher deposition from 1997 to 2018 landward of the rapidly retreating barrier islands along the Sound's northern border. At Barter Island, high erosion near north-facing shorelines and high deposition near west-facing shorelines generally matched shoreline changes. One of our goals is to identify possible processes responsible for the depth changes we quantified. Using simple metrics that relate sediment characteristics with modeled waves and non-wave induced currents, we show that sediment resuspension and transport by both wave and non-wave driven currents likely contribute to the overall patterns of change within the ∼13 m isobath along the open coast, and that the influence of wave action affecting sediment transport is expanding seaward. • Patterns of decadal-scale changes in shoreline positions and bathymetry indicate possible linkages within the nearshore. • Depth changes are additionally driven by sediment resuspension and transport by both wave and non-wave driven currents. • Wave action affecting sediment transport expanded seaward and deepened by as much as 15 cm/yr between 1979 and 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In the Arctic, earlier snowmelt and longer growing seasons due to warming have been hypothesized to increase vegetation productivity. Using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from both field and satellite measurements as an indicator of vegetation phenology and productivity, we monitored spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation growth for a coastal wet sedge tundra site near Barrow, Alaska over three growing seasons (2000–2002). Contrary to expectation, earlier snowmelt did not lead to increased productivity. Instead, productivity was associated primarily with precipitation and soil moisture, and secondarily with growing degree days, which, during this period, led to reduced growth in years with earlier snowmelt. Additional moisture effects on productivity and species distribution, operating over a longer time scale, were evident in spatial NDVI patterns associated with microtopography. Lower, wetter regions dominated by graminoids were more productive than higher, drier locations having a higher percentage of lichens and mosses, despite the earlier snowmelt at the more elevated sites. These results call into question the oft-stated hypothesis that earlier arctic growing seasons will lead to greater vegetation productivity. Rather, they agree with an emerging body of evidence from recent field studies indicating that early-season, local environmental conditions, notably moisture and temperature, are primary factors determining arctic vegetation productivity. For this coastal arctic site, early growing season conditions are strongly influenced by microtopography, hydrology, and regional sea ice dynamics, and may not be easily predicted from snowmelt date or seasonal average air temperatures alone. Our comparison of field to satellite NDVI also highlights the value of in-situ monitoring of actual vegetation responses using field optical sampling to obtain detailed information on surface conditions not possible from satellite observations alone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]