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Moose (Alces alces) in the boreal forest habitats of Alaska are unlike other northern ungulates because they tolerate high densities of flies (Diptera) even though flies cause wounds and infections during the warm summer months. Moose move to find food and to find relief from overheating (hyperthermia) but do they avoid flies? We used GPS collars to measure the rate of movement (m⋅h−1) and the time spent (min⋅day−1) by enclosed moose in four habitats: wetlands, black spruce, early seral boreal forest, and late seral boreal forest. Fly traps were used in each habitat to quantify spatio‐temporal abundance. Average daily air temperatures increased into July when peak biomass of forage for moose was greatest in early seral boreal forest habitats (424.46 vs. 25.15 kg⋅ha−1 on average in the other habitats). Average daily air temperatures were 1.7°C cooler in black spruce than other habitats, but fly abundance was greatest in black spruce (approximately 4‐fold greater on average than the other habitats). Moose increased their movement rate with counts of biting flies (mosquitoes, black flies, horse and deer flies), but not non‐biting flies (coprophagous flies). However, as air temperature increased (above 14.7°C) moose spent more time in fly‐abundant black spruce, than early seral boreal forest, showing great tolerance for mosquitoes. Warm summer temperatures appear to cause moose to trade‐off foraging in fly‐sparse habitats for resting and dissipating heat in shady, wet habitats with abundant flies that adversely affect the fitness of moose. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the Noah land surface model used in conjunction with the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić surface layer scheme (hereafter, Noah-MYJ) and the Noah multiphysics scheme (Noah-MP) from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 4.5.1 mesoscale model are evaluated with regard to their performance in reproducing positive temperature gradients over forested areas in the Arctic winter. First, simplified versions of the WRF schemes, recoded in Python, are compared with conceptual models of the surface layer in order to gain insight into the dependence of the temperature gradient on the wind speed at the top of the surface layer. It is shown that the WRF schemes place strong limits on the turbulent collapse, leading to lower surface temperature gradient at low wind speeds than in the conceptual models. We implemented modifications to the WRF schemes to correct this effect. The original and modified versions of Noah-MYJ and Noah-MP are then evaluated compared to long-term measurements at the Ameriflux Poker Flat Research Range, a forest site in interior Alaska. Noah-MP is found to perform better than Noah-MYJ because the former is a two-layer model which explicitly takes into account the effect of the forest canopy. Indeed, a non-negligible temperature gradient is maintained below the canopy at high wind speeds, leading to overall larger gradients than in the absence of vegetation. Furthermore, the modified versions are found to perform better than the original versions of each scheme because they better reproduce strong temperature gradients at low wind speeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate-induced northward advance of boreal forest is expected to lessen albedo, alter carbon stocks, and replace tundra, but where and when this advance will occur remains largely unknown. Using data from 19 sites across 22 degrees of longitude along the tree line of northern Alaska, we show a stronger temporal correlation of tree ring growth with open water uncovered by retreating Arctic sea ice than with air temperature. Spatially, our results suggest that tree growth, recruitment, and range expansion are causally linked to open water through associated warmer temperatures, deeper snowpacks, and improved nutrient availability. We apply a meta-analysis to 82 circumarctic sites, finding that proportionally more tree lines have advanced where proximal to ongoing sea ice loss. Taken together, these findings underpin how and where changing sea ice conditions facilitate high-latitude forest advance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations of the annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 in high northern latitudes provide evidence for an increase in terrestrial metabolism in Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. However, the mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. One proposed hypothesis is that ecological change from disturbance, such as wildfire, could increase the magnitude and change the phase of net ecosystem exchange through shifts in plant community composition. Yet, little quantitative work has evaluated this potential mechanism at a regional scale. Here we investigate how fire disturbance influences landscape‐level patterns of photosynthesis across western boreal North America. We use Alaska and Canadian large fire databases to identify the perimeters of wildfires, a Landsat‐derived land cover time series to characterize plant functional types (PFTs), and solar‐induced fluorescence (SIF) from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory‐2 (OCO‐2) as a proxy for photosynthesis. We analyze these datasets to characterize post‐fire changes in plant succession and photosynthetic activity using a space‐for‐time approach. We find that increases in herbaceous and sparse vegetation, shrub, and deciduous broadleaf forest PFTs during mid‐succession yield enhancements in SIF by 8–40% during June and July for 2‐ to 59‐year stands relative to pre‐fire controls. From the analysis of post‐fire land cover changes within individual ecoregions and modeling, we identify two mechanisms by which fires contribute to long‐term trends in SIF. First, increases in annual burning are shifting the stand age distribution, leading to increases in the abundance of shrubs and deciduous broadleaf forests that have considerably higher SIF during early‐ and mid‐summer. Second, fire appears to facilitate a long‐term shift from evergreen conifer to broadleaf deciduous forest in the Boreal Plain ecoregion. These findings suggest that increasing fire can contribute substantially to positive trends in seasonal CO2 exchange without a close coupling to long‐term increases in carbon storage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many disturbances are shifting in severity, frequency, and extent due to changing climate and human activities. Altered disturbance regimes can trigger shifts in ecosystem state where recovery to the pre-disturbance ecosystem is uncertain. In the western North American boreal forest, the intensification of wildfire can cause canopy dominance to switch from black spruce (Picea mariana) to deciduous trees such as Alaska paper birch (Betula neoalaskana) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides). Understanding the key mechanisms that determine the resilience and stability of these alternative community types is required for the prediction of future forest dynamics. Here, we assess patterns of post-fire tree recovery across a pre-fire gradient of spruce- to deciduous-dominated forests in Interior Alaska and quantify compositional and environmental thresholds that support the resilience of alternative canopy types. We found post-fire organic soil depth of stands on a recovery trajectory to deciduous dominance (7.3 ± 5.5 cm) were similar regardless of pre-fire composition and significantly shallower than spruce (14.9 ± 9.0 cm) or mixed trajectories (10.4 ± 5.9 cm). Deciduous-dominated stands were highly resilient to fire, as 100% remained deciduous-dominated post-fire. Even when deciduous trees only accounted for a small proportion (12%) of the pre-fire stand, deciduous trees often became dominant after wildfire. We conclude that the establishment of deciduous bud banks and seed sources creates a strong hysteresis in stand recovery that reinforces the resilience of deciduous-dominated boreal forests to wildfire. Accounting for the resilience of this alternative stable state to wildfire suggests that shifts from spruce to deciduous dominance caused by shifting wildfire will have long-term effects on future structure and function of boreal forests and vegetation feedbacks to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: In interior Alaska, increasing wildfire activity associated with climate change is projected to continue, potentially altering regional forest composition. Conifers are emblematic of boreal forest; however, greater frequency and severity of wildfires has been found to favor broadleaf-deciduous species in numerous studies. Objectives: This study examines potential shifts in forest type in interior Alaska and how shifts may be impacted by recurring wildfires under future climate change. Methods: A spatially-explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, was used to simulate forest succession and wildfire over a 380,400-hectare landscape under historic and future (RCP 8.5) climate. Wildfire was modeled using the SCRPPLE fire extension and vegetation growth, belowground carbon, hydrologic, and permafrost dynamics were modeled with the DGS succession extension. The relative importance of drivers of forest type change away from black spruce was quantified using random forest models for areas on the landscape experiencing different numbers of wildfires. Results: Greater frequencies of fire activity were associated with shifts in conifer-dominant areas to broadleaf-deciduous, which climate change accelerated. Vegetation transitions were most strongly influenced by percent tree mortality from the most recent wildfire. Starting deciduous fraction and proximity of mature black spruce to a site pre-fire were also influential, indicating pre-fire composition and context modified the effect of vegetation shifts. Conclusions: These results underscore how shifts in forest type may occur in a nonlinear manner in this region as the landscape experiences pressure from climate change and forests are subject to complex interactions between wildfire, climate, belowground processes, and the arrangement of forest communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The Drought Code (DC) of the Canadian Fire Weather Index System (CFWIS) has been intuitively regarded by fire managers in Alaska, USA, as poorly representing the moisture content in the forest floor in lowland taiga forests on permafrost soils. Aims. The aim of this study was to evaluate the DC using its own framework of water balance as cumulative additions of daily precipitation and substractions of actual evaporation. Methods. We used eddy covariance measurements (EC) from three flux towers in Interior Alaska as a benchmark of natural evaporation. Key results. The DC water balance model overpredicted drought for all 14 site-years that we analysed. Errors in water balance cumulated to 109 mm by the end of the season, which was 54% of the soil water storage capacity of the DC model. Median daily water balance was 6.3 times lower than that measured by EC. Conclusions. About half the error in the model was due to correction of precipitation for canopy effects. The other half was due to dependence of the actual evaporation rate on the proportional 'fullness' of soil water storage in the DC model. Implications. Fire danger situational awareness is improved by ignoring the DC in the CFWIS for boreal forests occurring on permafrost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades the habitat of North American beaver (Castor canadensis) has expanded from boreal forests into Arctic tundra ecosystems. Beaver ponds in Arctic watersheds are known to alter stream biogeochemistry, which is likely coupled with changes in the activity and composition of microbial communities inhabiting beaver pond sediments. We investigated bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities in beaver pond sediments along tundra streams in northwestern Alaska (AK), USA and compared them to those of tundra lakes and streams in north‐central Alaska that are unimpacted by beavers. β‐glucosidase activity assays indicated higher cellulose degradation potential in beaver ponds than in unimpacted streams and lakes within a watershed absent of beavers. Beta diversity analyses showed that dominant lineages of bacteria and archaea in beaver ponds differed from those in tundra lakes and streams, but dominant fungal lineages did not differ between these sample types. Beaver pond sediments displayed lower relative abundances of Crenarchaeota and Euryarchaeota archaea and of bacteria from typically anaerobic taxonomic groups, suggesting differences in rates of fermentative organic matter (OM) breakdown, syntrophy, and methane generation. Beaver ponds also displayed low relative abundances of Chytridiomycota (putative non‐symbiotic) fungi and high relative abundances of ectomycorrhizal (plant symbionts) Basidiomycota fungi, suggesting differences in the occurrence of plant and fungi mutualistic interactions. Beaver ponds also featured microbes with taxonomic identities typically associated with the cycling of nitrogen and sulfur compounds in higher relative abundances than tundra lakes and streams. These findings help clarify the microbiological implications of beavers expanding into high latitude regions. Plain Language Summary: The North American beaver has moved into tundra regions of Alaska in recent decades as a result of more favorable habitat and population rebound from overtrapping in previous centuries. On the tundra, beavers create/engineer ponds, changing how water flows, carbon and nutrient cycling, and the rate of permafrost thawing. Our study compares the microbiology of Alaskan tundra beaver pond sediments to that of pristine tundra lakes and streams in an Arctic region still undisturbed by beavers. Our findings indicate that bacteria and archaea found in Arctic beaver ponds are different from those of tundra lakes and streams, yet dominant fungal lineages were not different between these settings. Based on the types of microbes found, beaver ponds may provide favorable conditions for plant‐associated fungi, nitrogen‐ and sulfur‐cycling bacteria, and aerobic bacteria, while tundra lakes and streams display particularly high relative abundances of fungal parasites and pathogens and anaerobic bacteria and archaea that are usually attributed with fermentative, methanogenic, and syntrophic or cooperative metabolisms. Our data provides a first look at the microbiology of far northern beaver ponds, an ecological setting that's unique to a drastically changing Arctic. Key Points: Bacterial and archaeal communities of Alaskan tundra beaver ponds are unique from pristine Alaskan tundra lakes and streamsFungal communities of beaver ponds and tundra lakes and streams differ in overall composition but not dominant lineagesThe bacteria, archaea, and fungi of beaver ponds display greater similarity to tundra streams than to tundra lakes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal forest of northwestern North America covers an extensive area, contains vast amounts of carbon in its vegetation and soil, and is characterized by extensive wildfires. Catastrophic crown fires in these forests are fueled predominantly by only two evergreen needle-leaf tree species, black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. var. latifolia Engelm.). Identifying where these flammable species grow through time in the landscape is critical for understanding wildfire risk, damages, and human exposure. Because medium resolution landcover data that include species detail are lacking, we developed a compound modeling approach that enabled us to refine the available evergreen forest category into highly flammable species and less flammable species. We then expanded our refined landcover at decadal time steps from 1984 to 2014. With the aid of an existing burn model, FlamMap, and simple succession rules, we were able to predict future landcover at decadal steps until 2054. Our resulting land covers provide important information to communities in our study area on current and future wildfire risk and vegetation changes and could be developed in a similar fashion for other areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires, which are a natural part of the boreal ecosystem in Alaska, have recently increased in frequency and size. Environmental conditions (high temperature, low precipitation, and frequent lightning events) are becoming favorable for severe fire events. Fire releases greenhouse gasses such as carbon dioxide into the environment, creating a positive feedback loop for warming. Needleleaf species are the dominant vegetation in boreal Alaska and are highly flammable. They burn much faster due to the presence of resin, and their low-lying canopy structure facilitates the spread of fire from the ground to the canopy. Knowing the needleleaf vegetation distribution is crucial for better forest and wildfire management practices. Our study focuses on needleleaf fraction mapping using a well-documented spectral unmixing approach: multiple endmember spectral mixture analysis (MESMA). We used an AVIRIS-NG image (5 m), upscaled it to 10 m and 30 m spatial resolutions, and applied MESMA to all three images to assess the impact of spatial resolution on sub-pixel needleleaf fraction estimates. We tested a novel method to validate the fraction maps using field data and a high-resolution classified hyperspectral image. Our validation method produced needleleaf cover fraction estimates with accuracies of 73%, 79%, and 78% for 5 m, 10 m, and 30 m image data, respectively. To determine whether these accuracies varied significantly across different spatial scales, we used the McNemar statistical test and found no significant differences between the accuracies. The findings of this study enhance the toolset available to fire managers to manage wildfire and for understanding changes in forest demography in the boreal region of Alaska across the high-to-moderate resolution scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anomalous absorption of finely dispersed smoke aerosol was recorded in large-scale smoke haze during mass fires in the boreal forests of Alaska in July 2019 in the visible and near-infrared regions of the spectrum (440‒1020 nm) according to the data of monitoring of the spectral dependences in the refractive index imaginary part on the network of AERONET stations. The variations in the spectral dependences of the aerosol optical depths (extinction and absorption), as well as the size distribution function of aerosol particles, are analyzed. During the anomalous absorption, the imaginary part of the refractive index increased by a factor of 1.8‒7.2 with an increasing optical wavelength from 440 to 1020 nm, reaching a value of 0.315 for the wavelength of 1020 nm. A power approximation is proposed for the spectral dependence of the imaginary part of the refractive index with indices of power approximately from 0.7 to 2.3. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small water bodies (i.e., ponds; <0.01 km2) play an important role in Earth System processes, including carbon cycling and emissions of methane. Detection and monitoring of ponds using satellite imagery has been extremely difficult and many water maps are biased toward lakes (>0.01 km2). We leverage high‐resolution (3 m) optical satellite imagery from Planet Labs and deep learning methods to map seasonal changes in pond and lake areal extent across four regions in Alaska. Our water maps indicate that changes in open water extent over the snow‐free season are especially pronounced in ponds. To investigate potential impacts of seasonal changes in pond area on carbon emissions, we provide a case study of open water methane emission budgets using the new water maps. Our approach has widespread applications for water resources, habitat and land cover change assessments, wildlife management, risk assessments, and other biogeochemical modeling efforts. Plain Language Summary: Small water bodies (<0.01 km2) are an important driver of many Earth system processes. Despite their importance, many existing water mapping products have difficulty detecting these small water features and their seasonal changes in surface area. We used deep learning and high‐resolution (3 m) satellite imagery to map and monitor seasonal changes in the areal extent of lakes and small ponds across four regions in Alaska. The resulting water maps accounted for considerably more water coverage than existing products. The maps also effectively tracked widespread seasonal changes in pond and lake area that were not previously identified. This demonstrates the importance of monitoring surface water at high spatial resolutions and across seasons. Key Points: Deep learning and 3 m resolution satellite imagery from Planet Labs can detect and track ponds and lakes >0.0001 km2Total surface area for ponds (<0.01 km2) in boreal forest and tundra environments can vary by 20%–40% throughout an individual seasonPonds can contribute to a broad range (8%–37%) of total methane emissions from lakes and ponds in northern boreal forest and tundra [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and increased fire are eroding the resilience of boreal forests. This is problematic because boreal vegetation and the cold soils underneath store approximately 30 % of all terrestrial carbon. Society urgently needs projections of where, when, and why boreal forests are likely to change. Permafrost (i.e., subsurface material that remains frozen for at least 2 consecutive years) and the thick soil-surface organic layers (SOLs) that insulate permafrost are important controls of boreal forest dynamics and carbon cycling. However, both are rarely included in process-based vegetation models used to simulate future ecosystem trajectories. To address this challenge, we developed a computationally efficient permafrost and SOL module named the Permafrost and Organic LayEr module for Forest Models (POLE-FM) that operates at fine spatial (1 ha) and temporal (daily) resolutions. The module mechanistically simulates daily changes in depth to permafrost, annual SOL accumulation, and their complex effects on boreal forest structure and functions. We coupled the module to an established forest landscape model, iLand, and benchmarked the model in interior Alaska at spatial scales of stands (1 ha) to landscapes (61 000 ha) and over temporal scales of days to centuries. The coupled model generated intra- and inter-annual patterns of snow accumulation and active layer depth (portion of soil column that thaws throughout the year) generally consistent with independent observations in 17 instrumented forest stands. The model also represented the distribution of near-surface permafrost presence in a topographically complex landscape. We simulated 39.3 % of forested area in the landscape as underlain by permafrost, compared to the estimated 33.4 % from the benchmarking product. We further determined that the model could accurately simulate moss biomass, SOL accumulation, fire activity, tree species composition, and stand structure at the landscape scale. Modular and flexible representations of key biophysical processes that underpin 21st-century ecological change are an essential next step in vegetation simulation to reduce uncertainty in future projections and to support innovative environmental decision-making. We show that coupling a new permafrost and SOL module to an existing forest landscape model increases the model's utility for projecting forest futures at high latitudes. Process-based models that represent relevant dynamics will catalyze opportunities to address previously intractable questions about boreal forest resilience, biogeochemical cycling, and feedbacks to regional and global climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire frequency is increasing with climate warming in the boreal regions of interior Alaska, with short fire return intervals (< 50 years) becoming more common. Recent studies suggest these "reburns" will reduce the insulating surface organic layer (SOL) and seedbanks, inhibiting black spruce regeneration and increasing deciduous cover. These changes are projected to amplify soil warming, increasing mineral soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition rates, and impair re-establishment of understorey vegetation and the SOL. We examined how reburns changed soil temperature, heterotrophic soil respiration (RH), and understorey gross primary production (GPP), and related these to shifts in vegetation composition and SOL depths. Two distinct burn complexes previously covered by spruce were measured; both included areas burned 1x, 2x, and 3x over 60 years and mature (≈ 90 year old) spruce forests underlain by permafrost. A 2.7 °C increase in annual near-surface soil temperatures from 1x to 3x burns was correlated with a decrease in SOL depths and a 1.9 Mg C ha−1 increase in annual RH efflux. However, near-surface soil warming accounted for ≤ 23% of higher RH efflux; increases in deciduous overstorey vegetation and root biomass with reburning better correlated with RH than soil temperature. Reburning also warmed deeper soils and reduced the biomass and GPP of understory plants, lessening their potential to offset elevated RH and contribute to SOL development. This suggests that reburning led to losses of mineral SOC previously stored in permafrost due to warming soils and changes in vegetation composition, illustrating how burn frequency creates pathways for accelerated regional C loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal forest and tundra ecosystems are undergoing rapid climatic and environmental changes with consequences for ecosystem structure, function, and services. Although riparian zones occupy a small footprint within subarctic landscapes, they have disproportionately high value as foci of hydrological processes, biogeochemical cycling, ecological disturbance, biodiversity, and wildlife activity. Recent observations of increased winter discharge, reduced peak flows, and increased connectivity between catchments, streams, and groundwater in subarctic riparian zones have prompted predictions of altered riverine disturbance regimes, increased channelization, and a decline in the extent of active floodplains. However, few observational data exist concerning the spatiotemporal dynamics of subarctic floodplain vegetation, which can serve as a bioindicator to corroborate such predictions. We analyzed the distribution and extent of riparian ecotypes across a network of streams in 12 Interior Alaska watersheds using high‐resolution image pairs from circa 1981–2010. All stream reaches encompassed pronounced elevational gradients and included elevational forest–tundra ecotones. We classified riparian ecotypes using an image‐based point‐intercept sampling approach, calculated the probability of ecotype transitions, and evaluated relationships between ecotype transitions and environmental covariates. Our results reveal widespread increases in the stature, density, and extent of riparian vegetation spanning gradients of elevation, floodplain morphology, and climate. Ecotype transitions occurred at >20% of sample points, and there was a strong imbalance toward forward successional transitions (16.5%) versus backward transitions (4.0%). That is, we observed a strong tendency toward increasing cover, stature, and density of vegetation communities across our extensive sampling domain across our approximately 30‐year sample period. This relatively rapid riparian "greening" signal tended to be most pronounced in our glaciated watersheds. Although the streams we studied displayed high local variability in ecotype transitions, our results support hypotheses of increasing channelization and reduced extent of unvegetated surfaces on subarctic floodplains. They also likely reflect a trend toward more rapid and extensive plant recruitment and growth due to processes associated with conspicuous warming in northern ecosystems, consistent with greening documented in other subarctic landscape segments along gradients of elevation and latitude. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Autotrophic and heterotrophic microbes in stream biofilms dominate biogeochemical cycling and rely on nutrient and energy resources for growth and productivity. In the boreal forest, variation in these resources can originate from permafrost distribution and controls competition for nutrients between stream autotrophs and heterotrophs. We investigated which resources control nutrient uptake and metabolism in headwater stream biofilms of subarctic Alaska, USA, and how resource availability affects competition for inorganic nutrients. We hypothesized that the competitive outcome between autotrophs and heterotrophs for inorganic nutrients would be dependent on availability of organic C, or inorganic nutrients (N and P). To test our hypotheses, we measured resource limitation at the patch and reach scales along a permafrost gradient in interior Alaska. At the patch scale, nutrient diffusing substrata revealed that, secondary to light, N and P were colimiting to autotrophic growth, whereas C was primarily limiting to heterotrophic respiration. In the presence of labile C, heterotrophs exhibited a larger response to nutrient enrichment and outcompeted autotrophs for inorganic nutrients. At the reach scale, light availability had the largest influence on nutrient uptake, but inorganic nutrients were also important. The positive response to increased nutrient and C availability at the patch scale suggests that the predicted increase in exports into fluvial networks with permafrost degradation will alter biofilm structure and function. Ultimately, biofilm communities will shift to more heterotroph-dominated patches if heterotrophs outcompete autotrophs for inorganic nutrients. As permafrost thaws and nutrients and organic C mobilize into streams, nutrient uptake dynamics and competition within biofilms will be altered, affecting nutrient use and export. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many populations of long‐distance migrant shorebirds are declining rapidly. Since the 1970s, the lesser yellowlegs (Tringa flavipes) has experienced a pronounced reduction in abundance of ~63%. The potential causes of the species' decline are complex and interrelated. Understanding the timing of migration, seasonal routes, and important stopover and non‐breeding locations used by this species will aid in directing conservation planning to address potential threats. During 2018–2022, we tracked 118 adult lesser yellowlegs using GPS satellite tags deployed on birds from five breeding and two migratory stopover locations spanning the boreal forest of North America from Alaska to Eastern Canada. Our objectives were to identify migratory routes, quantify migratory connectivity, and describe key stopover and non‐breeding locations. We also evaluated predictors of southbound migratory departure date and migration distance. Individuals tagged in Alaska and Central Canada followed similar southbound migratory routes, stopping to refuel in the Prairie Pothole Region of North America, whereas birds tagged in Eastern Canada completed multi‐day transoceanic flights covering distances of >4000 km across the Atlantic between North and South America. Upon reaching their non‐breeding locations, lesser yellowlegs populations overlapped, resulting in weak migratory connectivity. Sex and population origin were significantly associated with the timing of migratory departure from breeding locations, and body mass at the time of GPS‐tag deployment was the best predictor of southbound migratory distance. Our findings suggest that lesser yellowlegs travel long distances and traverse numerous political boundaries each year, and breeding location likely has the greatest influence on migratory routes and therefore the threats birds experience during migration. Further, the species' dependence on wetlands in agricultural landscapes during migration and the non‐breeding period may make them vulnerable to threats related to agricultural practices, such as pesticide exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Boreal forest soils contain large stocks of soil carbon (C) that may be sensitive to changes in climate and disturbance. Destablization of boreal forest soil C through changes in C inputs, belowground C pools and/or wildfire could feedback to accelerate rising atmospheric CO2 concentration. Additionally, increasing frequency of severe fires may be changing the dominant forest types and reshaping aboveground C stocks. 2. Although controls on ecosystem C pools have received considerable attention, many studies have been limited to locations near the road system, leading to uncertainty in current and future C stocks across boreal Alaska. Here, we leveraged 545 randomly selected and spatially balanced Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) plots across ~13.5 million hectares in interior Alaska to examine the factors governing soil and live tree C pools. 3. Forest type mediated the effects of mean summer air temperature and the probability of near-surface permafrost on soil C. Meanwhile, forest type, stand age and aspect were the primary drivers of live tree C. Overall, plots with a known history of wildfire during the past 70 years did not have significantly different soil C stocks than plots without a known history of fire, likely due to the historical predominance of low severity fires. 4. Where wildfire likely initiated a transition to deciduous trees (19% of plots), live tree and soil C pools were reduced by 16% and 20%, respectively. Ecosystem C likely recovered over time, as maturing deciduous stands rapidly gained C in live trees. Deciduous stands without a known fire had comparatively very large live tree C stocks, suggesting a significant change in the distribution of ecosystem C following severe fire. 5. Synthesis. Our results highlight the nuanced interactions among wildfire, landscape position and forest type that will play important roles in shaping future boreal ecosystem C stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of green‐winged teal (Anas crecca) as a harvested species in North America, recent information on variation in vital rates among regions is lacking. We used band recovery data and hierarchical autoregressive models to examine temporal and age‐sex‐class variation in survival, hunting mortality, and nonhunting mortality probabilities of green‐winged teal banded at Kgun Lake on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska, USA, from 1997–2019. We used data from 10,554 adult and juvenile green‐winged teal of known sex and age banded and released at Kgun Lake, and 1,245 hunter recoveries. Estimates of annual survival probability for adult females and males ranged from 0.44 (95% CI = 0.29–0.54) to 0.49 (95% CI = 0.37–0.68) and 0.56 (95% CI = 0.50–0.61) to 0.58 (95% CI = 0.50–0.64), respectively, during our study period. Estimates of annual survival probability for juvenile females and males ranged from 0.36 (95% CI = 0.18–0.56) to 0.46 (95% CI = 0.31–0.71) and 0.51 (95% CI = 0.38–0.61) to 0.56 (95% CI = 0.44–0.71), respectively. Hunting mortality probability was greatest for juvenile males and least for adult females. Hunting mortality probability of juvenile males increased from 0.09 (95% CI = 0.05–0.13) in 1997 to 0.14 (95% CI = 0.11–0.18) in 2015. Nonhunting mortality probability was greater and more variable than hunting mortality probability for all age‐sex classes, indicating nonhunting mortality contributed most to total mortality of green‐winged teal banded at Kgun Lake during our study. Additionally, survival probability of female green‐winged teal banded at Kgun Lake is less than published estimates for green‐winged teal banded in the boreal forest of Alaska. We recommend continuing consistent banding operations for green‐winged teal on the Yukon‐Kuskokwim Delta and other important breeding areas to further understand factors influencing nonhunting mortality and how they may vary seasonally and geographically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cost-effective monitoring of forest carbon resources is critical to the development of national policies and enforcement of international agreements aimed at reducing carbon emissions and mitigating the impacts of climate change. While carbon monitoring systems are often based on national forest inventories (NFI) utilizing a large sample of field plots, in remote regions the lack of transportation infrastructure often requires heavier reliance on remote sensing technologies, such as airborne lidar. The challenge motivating our research is that the efficacy of estimating carbon with lidar varies across the various carbon pools within forest ecosystems. Lidar measurements are typically highly correlated with aboveground tree carbon but are less strongly correlated with other carbon pools, such as down woody materials (DWM) and soil. Field measurements are essential to both (1) estimate soil and DWM carbon directly and (2) develop regression models to estimate tree carbon indirectly using lidar. With limited budgets and time, however, decision makers must find an optimal way to combine field measurements with lidar to minimize standard errors in carbon estimates for the various pools. We introduce a multi-objective binary programming formulation that quantifies the tradeoffs behind the competing objectives of minimizing standard errors for tree carbon, DWM carbon, and soil carbon. Using NFI and airborne lidar data from a remote boreal forest region of interior Alaska, we demonstrate the operational feasibility of the method and suggest that it is generalizable to other carbon sampling projects because of its generic mathematical structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost, an important source of soil disturbance, is particularly vulnerable to climate change in Alaska where 85% of the land is underlained with discontinuous permafrost. Boreal forests, home to plants integral to subsistence diets of many Alaska Native communities, are not immune to the effects of climate change. Soil disturbance events, such as permafrost thaw, wildfires, and land use change can influence abiotic conditions, which can then affect active layer soil microbial communities. In a previous study, we found negative effects on boreal plants inoculated with microbes impacted by soil disturbance compared to plants inoculated with microbes from undisturbed soils. Here, we identify key shifts in microbial communities altered by soil disturbance using 16S rRNA gene sequencing and make connections between microbial community changes and previously observed plant growth. Additionally, we identify further community shifts in potential functional mechanisms using long read metagenomics. Across a soil disturbance gradient, microbial communities differ significantly based on the level of soil disturbance. Consistent with the earlier study, the family Acidobacteriaceae , which consists of known plant growth promoters, was abundant in undisturbed soil, but practically absent in most disturbed soil. In contrast, Comamonadaceae , a family with known agricultural pathogens, was overrepresented in most disturbed soil communities compared to undisturbed. Within our metagenomic data, we found that soil disturbance level is associated with differences in microbial community function, including mechanisms potentially involved in plant pathogenicity. These results indicate that a decrease in plant growth can be linked to changes in the microbial community and functional composition driven by soil disturbance and climate change. Together, these results build a genomic understanding of how shifting soil microbiomes may affect plant productivity and ecosystem health as the Arctic warms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change will lead to more frequent and more severe fires in some areas of boreal forests, affecting the distribution and availability of late‐successional forest communities. These forest communities help to protect globally significant carbon reserves beneath permafrost layers and provide habitat for many animal species, including forest‐dwelling caribou. Many caribou populations are declining, yet the mechanisms by which changing fire regimes could affect caribou declines are poorly understood. We analyzed resource selection of 686 GPS‐collared female caribou from three ecotypes and 15 populations in a ~600,000 km2 region of northwest Canada and eastern Alaska. These populations span a wide gradient of fire frequency but experience low levels of human‐caused habitat disturbance. We used a mixed‐effects modeling framework to characterize caribou resource selection in response to burns at different seasons and spatiotemporal scales, and to test for functional responses in resource selection to burn availability. We also tested mechanisms driving observed selection patterns using burn severity and lichen cover data. Caribou avoided burns more strongly during winter relative to summer and at larger spatiotemporal scales relative to smaller scales. During the winter, caribou consistently avoided burns at both spatiotemporal scales as burn availability increased, indicating little evidence of a functional response. However, they decreased their avoidance of burns during summer as burn availability increased. Burn availability explained more variation in caribou selection for burns than ecotype. Within burns, caribou strongly avoided severely burned areas in winter, and this avoidance lasted nearly 30 years after a fire. Caribou within burns also selected higher cover of terrestrial lichen (an important caribou food source). We found a negative relationship between burn severity and lichen cover, confirming that caribou avoidance of burns was consistent with lower lichen abundance. Consistent winter avoidance of burns and severely burned areas suggests that caribou will experience increasing winter habitat loss as fire frequency and severity increase. Our results highlight the potential for climate‐induced alteration of natural disturbance regimes to affect boreal biodiversity through habitat loss. We suggest that management strategies prioritizing protection of core winter range habitat with lower burn probabilities would provide important climate‐change refugia for caribou. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire severity is a key driver shaping the ecological structure and function of North American boreal ecosystems, a biome dominated by large, high‐intensity wildfires. Satellite‐derived burn severity maps have been an important tool in these remote landscapes for both fire and resource management. The conventional methodology to produce satellite‐inferred fire severity maps generally involves comparing imagery from 1 year before and 1 year after a fire, yet environmental conditions unique to the boreal have limited the accuracy of resulting products. We introduce an alternative method – the 'hybrid composite' – based on deriving mean severity over time on a per‐pixel basis within the cloud‐computing environment of Google Earth Engine. It constructs the post‐fire image from satellite data composited from all valid images (i.e., clear‐sky and snow‐free) acquired in the time period immediately after fire through the early growing season of the following year. We compare this approach to paired‐scene and composite approaches where the post‐fire time period is from the growing season 1 year after fire. Validation statistics based on field‐derived data for 52 fires across Alaska and Canada indicate that the hybrid composite method outperforms the other approaches. This approach presents an efficient and cost‐effective means to monitor and explore trends and patterns across broad spatial domains, and could be applied to fires in other regions, especially those with frequent cloud cover or rapid vegetation recovery. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Black spruce forest communities in boreal Alaska have undergone self‐replacement succession following low‐to‐moderate severity fires for thousands of years. However, recent intensification of interior Alaska's fire regime, particularly deeper burning of the soil organic layer, is leading to shifts to deciduous‐dominated successional pathways, resulting in many socioecological consequences. Both fuel load quantity and quality (or "burnability") influence black spruce plant communities' potential to burn. Even relatively low fuel loads, such as those seen in black spruce forest understory, can be highly influential drivers of fire behavior due to their high flammability. Additionally, black spruce community self‐replacement following fire can be largely attributed to the suite of functional and life history traits possessed by the species dominating these communities. We used fuel load (quantity and quality) and amount of within‐population plant trait variation (coefficient of variation; CV) as community‐level emergent properties to investigate black spruce forest vulnerability and resilience to a changing fire regime across the landscape. Our burn severity potential index (BSPI), calculated from fuel load quantity and quality measurements, indicates that drier, higher elevation stands with thicker active layers were the most vulnerable to fire‐induced vegetation shifts under a changing fire regime. Forest resilience to fire‐induced vegetation shift, represented by higher CV, was negatively associated with BSPI and greatest in ecoregions dominated by lowland black spruce forests. Together, these analyses provide critical information for determining the likelihood of stand‐replacing shifts in dominant vegetation following fire and for implementing appropriate ecosystem management practices. Plain Language Summary: As larger and more severe wildfires occur more often, it is becoming increasingly important to understand the ecological effects of fire and to predict how landscapes may change in the future. To investigate properties of black spruce forest vulnerability and resilience to fire‐induced vegetation changes in interior Alaska, we quantified burn severity potential index and plant trait variation for 28 sites using site‐level measurements of fuel load (organic biomass) and plant traits, respectively. We assessed which black spruce forests, in terms of their location across the landscape, are likely the most vulnerable versus the most resilient to severe burning. We found that two types of black spruce forest plant communities (dry nonacidic upland black spruce and dry acidic upland black spruce lichen woodlands) are most vulnerable to experiencing postfire vegetation shifts and, notably, ∼27% of the landscape in interior Alaska is covered by these forest types. Although more research is necessary to verify that plant trait variation is a broadly useful measure of site resilience to fire, these findings will influence future management practices across interior Alaska's landscapes to minimize the loss of social and ecological values that black spruce forests provide. Key Points: Burn severity potential index was significantly related to burn severity, validating it as an indicator of site vulnerabilityDry nonacidic upland black spruce and dry acidic upland black spruce lichen woodlands are most vulnerable to fire‐induced vegetation shiftsSite‐level coefficient of variation will require further validation as an indicator of forest resilience to severe fire [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Arctic and subarctic wildlife are among the most vulnerable species to climate change. Canada Jays (Perisoreus canadensis (Linnaeus, 1776)) are generalist residents of northern boreal forests and scatter-hoard food to insulate against food scarcity during winter. Unlike most scatter-hoarders, however, Canada Jays primarily cache perishable food, rendering their caches more susceptible to climate change induced degradation and loss. Here we use a mostly noninvasive approach to document Canada Jay foraging ecology among a population in interior Alaska, USA, including the types of food acquired, foraging and caching rates, and cache longevity and loss. We also tested for associations between foraging and caching rates with reproductive metrics to assess possible relationships among food and productivity. We found that Canada Jays have a varied diet that changed seasonally, and responded to a record-setting warm spring by directing foraging efforts away from cache recovery and towards the emergence of fresh food. We did not find evidence for relationships between foraging and caching rate with reproductive output, possibly owing to small sample sizes. We found that caches were recovered quickly (<4 weeks) and frequently lost to conspecific and heterospecific competitors. Our study suggests that Canada Jays may be better poised to respond to changes in cache integrity and food availability than has been previously recognized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Neodothiora populina Crous, G.C. Adams & Winton was determined to be a new pathogen of trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides) growing in Alaska, based on completion of Koch's Postulates in replicated forest and growth chamber inoculation trials. The pathogen is responsible for severe damage and widespread rapid mortality of sapling to mature aspen (≥ 80 years) in the boreal forests of interior Alaska, due to large diffuse annual (1–2 years) cankers. Isolation of the pathogen was challenging, and identification based on cultural characters was difficult. Fruiting bodies were not found on wild diseased trees, but erumpent pycnidia were found in bark overlying cankers on several stems inoculated with pure cultures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future carbon balance of boreal ecosystems under increasing temperatures is highly uncertain. In particular, the net effects of a longer growing season versus enhanced respiration are poorly understood. Here, we use a geostatistical inverse model from 2012 to 2014 to determine temperature sensitivity in Alaskan biomes throughout the growing season, in order to identify the relative effects of these competing phenomena. We find that temperature explains a large portion of the disparities in autumn carbon flux between 2013 and 2014. Boreal forests experienced a growing season extension during the warm October of 2013 that offset increased respiration into autumn in years with high temperatures. In contrast, increased temperatures in the tundra and shrublands led to a large respiration signal during October 2013, producing a greater net carbon release. These results suggest a greater vulnerability of Alaskan tundra and shrubland carbon stocks compared to boreal forest carbon stocks under warming. Plain Language Summary: Increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are driving climate change, which is happening particularly rapidly near the poles of the Earth. This rapid warming may help plants in these high‐latitude regions take up more carbon through photosynthesis, which could decrease the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, slowing climate change. However, rapid warming is also speeding up soil microbial activity and other processes that release more CO2 into the atmosphere at high latitudes, possibly accelerating climate change. Therefore, the balance of these different processes will determine the net impact of high‐latitude ecosystems on climate change. We assess how much warming and associated conditions influence the total CO2 exchange across Alaska. We find that during our study period, warming was very important for autumn CO2 exchange. Forests in Alaska continued their photosynthesis later into autumn during the warmest year of our study period, offsetting enhanced CO2 release from these regions. In contrast, under the same conditions, areas covered by shrubs and grasses simply lost large amounts of carbon. These results suggest that under warming, high‐latitude grasslands and shrublands are particularly susceptible to releasing large amounts of CO2, which could potentially accelerate climate change. Key Points: Autumn warming is associated with a growing season extension in the boreal forests in the interior of AlaskaThese same conditions are associated with a strong release of carbon from shrublands and some tundra regions in AlaskaShrubland and tundra regions of Alaska may be more vulnerable to net carbon losses because of a lack of a growing season extension [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon cycle perturbations in high-latitude ecosystems associated with rapid warming can have implications for the global climate. Belowground biomass is an important component of the carbon cycle in these ecosystems, with, on average, significantly more vegetation biomass belowground than aboveground. Large quantities of dead root biomass are also in these ecosystems owing to slow decomposition rates. Current understanding of how live and dead root biomass carbon pools vary across high-latitude ecosystems and the environmental conditions associated with this variation is limited due to the labor- and time-intensive nature of data collection. To that end, we examined patterns and factors (abiotic and biotic) associated with the variation in live and dead fine root biomass (FRB) and FRB carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus concentrations for 23 sites across a latitudinal gradient in Alaska, spanning both boreal forest and tundra biomes. We found no difference in the live or dead FRB variables between these biomes, despite large differences in predominant vegetation types, except for significantly higher live FRB C:N ratios in boreal sites. Soil C:N ratio, moisture, and temperature, along with moss cover, explained a substantial portion of the dead:live FRB ratio variability across sites. We find all these factors have negative relationships with dead FRB, while having positive or no relationship with live FRB. This work demonstrates that FRB does not necessarily correlate with aboveground vegetation characteristics, and it highlights the need for finer-scale measurements of abiotic and biotic factors to understand FRB landscape variability now and into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When tracing vegetation dynamics over long timescales, obtaining enough floristic information to gain a detailed understanding of past communities and their transitions can be challenging. The first high-resolution sedimentary DNA (sed aDNA) metabarcoding record from lake sediments in Alaska—reported here—covers nearly 15,000 years of change. It shows in unprecedented detail the composition of late-Pleistocene "steppe-tundra" vegetation of ice-free Alaska, part of an intriguing late-Quaternary "no-analogue" biome, and it covers the subsequent changes that led to the development of modern spruce-dominated boreal forest. The site (Chisholm Lake) lies close to key archaeological sites, and the record throws new light on the landscape and resources available to early humans. Initially, vegetation was dominated by forbs found in modern tundra and/or subarctic steppe vegetation (e.g., Potentilla , Draba , Eritrichium , Anemone patens), and graminoids (e.g., Bromus pumpellianus, Festuca, Calamagrostis, Puccinellia), with Salix the only prominent woody taxon. Predominantly xeric, warm-to-cold habitats are indicated, and we explain the mixed ecological preferences of the fossil assemblages as a topo-mosaic strongly affected by insolation load. At ca. 14,500 cal yr BP (calendar years before C.E. 1950), about the same time as well documented human arrivals and coincident with an increase in effective moisture, Betula expanded. Graminoids became less abundant, but many open-ground forb taxa persisted. This woody-herbaceous mosaic is compatible with the observed persistence of Pleistocene megafaunal species (animals weighing ≥44 kg)—important resources for early humans. The greatest taxonomic turnover, marking a transition to regional woodland and a further moisture increase, began ca. 11,000 cal yr BP when Populus expanded, along with new shrub taxa (e.g., Shepherdia , Eleagnus, Rubus, Viburnum). Picea then expanded ca. 9500 cal yr BP, along with shrub and forb taxa typical of evergreen boreal woodland (e.g., Spiraea, Cornus, Linnaea). We found no evidence for Picea in the late Pleistocene, however. Most taxa present today were established by ca. 5000 cal yr BP after almost complete taxonomic turnover since the start of the record (though Larix appeared only at ca. 1500 cal yr BP). Prominent fluctuations in aquatic communities ca. 14,000–9,500 cal yr BP are probably related to lake-level fluctuations prior to the lake reaching its high, near-modern depth ca. 8,000 cal yr BP. • Detailed sed a DNA record of 15,000 yr of late-Quaternary floristic change in Alaska. • Late-glacial steppe and tundra mosaic likely reflects local topoclimatic control. • Major turnover during early-Holocene transitions to deciduous, then spruce forest. • Open-ground-woodland mosaic until 9500 cal yr BP was a resource for diverse mammals. • Forest expansion and higher aquatic diversity with moisture rise ca. 9500 cal yr BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brown carbon (BrC) plays an important role in global radiative budget but there have been few studies on BrC in Arctic despite rapid warming and increasing wildfires in this region. Here we investigate the optical properties of BrC from boreal fires in Alaska summer, with two sets of measurements from PILS-LWCC-TOC (Particle-Into-Liquid-Sampler – Liquid-Waveguide Capillary flow-through optical Cell - Total-Organic-Carbon analyzer) and filter measurements. We show that during intense wildfires, the mass absorption coefficient at 365 nm (MAC 365) from water soluble organic carbon (WSOC) remained stable at ∼1 m2 g−1. With all plumes sampled and derived transport time, we show a decrease of MAC 365 with plume age, with a shorter photobleaching lifetime (∼11 h) at 365 nm compared to 405 nm (∼20 h). The total absorption by organic aerosols measured from filters at 365 nm is higher than the absorption by WSOC by a factor 2–3, suggesting a dominant role of insoluble organic carbon. Overall BrC dominates absorption in the near-ultraviolet and visible radiation during wildfire season in Alaska summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent increases in boreal forest burned area, which have been linked with climate warming, highlight the need to better understand the composition of wildfire emissions and their atmospheric impacts. Here we quantified emission factors for CO and CH 4 from a massive regional fire complex in interior Alaska during the summer of 2015 using continuous high-resolution trace gas observations from the Carbon in Arctic Reservoirs Vulnerability Experiment (CRV) tower in Fox, Alaska. Averaged over the 2015 fire season, the mean CO / CO 2 emission ratio was 0.142 ± 0.051, and the mean CO emission factor was 127 ± 40 g kg -1 dry biomass burned. The CO / CO 2 emission ratio was about 39 % higher than the mean of previous estimates derived from aircraft sampling of wildfires from boreal North America. The mean CH 4 / CO 2 emission ratio was 0.010 ± 0.004, and the CH 4 emission factor was 5.3 ± 1.8 g kg -1 dry biomass burned, which are consistent with the mean of previous reports. CO and CH 4 emission ratios varied in synchrony, with higher CH 4 emission factors observed during periods with lower modified combustion efficiency (MCE). By coupling a fire emissions inventory with an atmospheric model, we identified at least 34 individual fires that contributed to trace gas variations measured at the CRV tower, representing a sample size that is nearly the same as the total number of boreal fires measured in all previous field campaigns. The model also indicated that typical mean transit times between trace gas emission within a fire perimeter and tower measurement were 1–3 d, indicating that the time series sampled combustion across day and night burning phases. The high CO emission ratio estimates reported here provide evidence for a prominent role of smoldering combustion and illustrate the importance of continuously sampling fires across time-varying environmental conditions that are representative of a fire season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this data‐sparse region. Parameter estimation is further complicated in regions with rapidly warming climate, where there is a need to minimize model error dependence on interannual climate variations. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied the physically based, one‐dimensional ecohydrological Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest stand in interior Alaska over a 13‐year period. Using a Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation parameterisation, SHAW reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture during a five‐year validation period quite well, with root mean squared error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020 cm3/cm3. Many parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the eight‐year validation period, indicating some overfitting and demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based on traditional performance measures such as the RMSE that minimize error in soil moisture simulation, with one that is designed to minimize the dependence of model error on interannual climate variability using a new diagnostic approach we call CSMP, which stands for Climate Sensitivity of Model Performance. Use of the CSMP approach moderately decreases traditional model performance but may be more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is important that model error is independent from climate variability. These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL, can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model parameterisation, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter selection to improve applicability in non‐stationary climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past several decades, growth declines and mortality of trembling aspen throughout western Canada and the United States have been linked to drought, often interacting with outbreaks of insects and fungal pathogens, resulting in a "sudden aspen decline" throughout much of aspen's range. In 2015, we noticed an aggressive fungal canker causing widespread mortality of aspen throughout interior Alaska and initiated a study to quantify potential drivers for the incidence, virulence, and distribution of the disease. Stand-level infection rates among 88 study sites distributed across 6 Alaska ecoregions ranged from <1 to 69%, with the proportion of trees with canker that were dead averaging 70% across all sites. The disease is most prevalent north of the Alaska Range within the Tanana Kuskokwim ecoregion. Modeling canker probability as a function of ecoregion, stand structure, landscape position, and climate revealed that smaller-diameter trees in older stands with greater aspen basal area have the highest canker incidence and mortality, while younger trees in younger stands appear virtually immune to the disease. Sites with higher summer vapor pressure deficits had significantly higher levels of canker infection and mortality. We believe the combined effects of this novel fungal canker pathogen, drought, and the persistent aspen leaf miner outbreak are triggering feedbacks between carbon starvation and hydraulic failure that are ultimately driving widespread mortality. Warmer early-season temperatures and prolonged late summer drought are leading to larger and more severe wildfires throughout interior Alaska that are favoring a shift from black spruce to forests dominated by Alaska paper birch and aspen. Widespread aspen mortality fostered by this rapidly spreading pathogen has significant implications for successional dynamics, ecosystem function, and feedbacks to disturbance regimes, particularly on sites too dry for Alaska paper birch. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires are a major disturbance to forest carbon (C) balance through both immediate combustion emissions and post-fire ecosystem dynamics. Here we used a process-based biogeochemistry model, the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM), to simulate C budget in Alaska and Canada during 1986–2016, as impacted by fire disturbances. We extracted the data of difference Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) for fires from Landsat TM/ETM imagery and estimated the proportion of vegetation and soil C combustion. We observed that the region was a C source of 2.74 Pg C during the 31-year period. The observed C loss, 57.1 Tg C year−1, was attributed to fire emissions, overwhelming the net ecosystem production (1.9 Tg C year−1) in the region. Our simulated direct emissions for Alaska and Canada are within the range of field measurements and other model estimates. As burn severity increased, combustion emission tended to switch from vegetation origin towards soil origin. When dNBR is below 300, fires increase soil temperature and decrease soil moisture and thus, enhance soil respiration. However, the post-fire soil respiration decreases for moderate or high burn severity. The proportion of post-fire soil emission in total emissions increased with burn severity. Net nitrogen mineralization gradually recovered after fire, enhancing net primary production. Net ecosystem production recovered fast under higher burn severities. The impact of fire disturbance on the C balance of northern ecosystems and the associated uncertainties can be better characterized with long-term, prior-, during- and post-disturbance data across the geospatial spectrum. Our findings suggest that the regional source of carbon to the atmosphere will persist if the observed forest wildfire occurrence and severity continues into the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moss-associated N2 fixation provides a substantial but heterogeneous input of new N to nutrient-limited ecosystems at high latitudes. In spite of the broad diversity of mosses found in boreal and Arctic ecosystems, the extent to which host moss identity drives variation in N2 fixation rates remains largely undetermined. We used 15N2 incubations to quantify the fixation rates associated with 34 moss species from 24 sites ranging from 60° to 68° N in Alaska, USA. Remarkably, all sampled moss genera fixed N2, including well-studied feather and peat mosses and genera such as Tomentypnum, Dicranum, and Polytrichum. The total moss-associated N2 fixation rates ranged from almost zero to 3.2 mg N m−2 d−1, with an average of 0.8 mg N m−2 d−1, based on abundance-weighted averages of all mosses summed for each site. Random forest models indicated that moss taxonomic family was a better predictor of rate variation across Alaska than any of the measured environmental factors, including site, pH, tree density, and mean annual precipitation and temperature. Consistent with this finding, mixed models showed that trends in N2 fixation rates among moss genera were consistent across biomes. We also found "hotspots" of high fixation rates in one-fourth of sampled sites. Our results demonstrated the importance of moss identity in influencing N2 fixation rates. This in turn indicates the potential utility of moss identity when making ecosystem N input predictions and exploring other sources of process rate variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lichens occupy diverse substrates across tremendous ranges of environmental variation. In boreal forests, lichen communities co-occur in 'strata' defined by terrestrial or arboreal substrates, but these strata may or may not be interchangeable as bioindicators. Do co-occurring lichen strata have similar community structures and environmental responses? Could one stratum serve as a proxy for the other? We assessed variation in species richness and community compositions between ground-layer versus epiphyte-layer lichen strata in boreal forests and peatlands of interior Alaska. Species richness was lower and more spatially structured in the ground layer than the epiphyte layer. Richness of strata was not correlated. The most compositionally unique ground-layer communities were species-poor but contained regionally rare species not common in other plots. Variation in community compositions (ordination scores) were not congruent between strata (Procrustes congruence < 0.16 on 0–1 scale); the largest departures from congruence occurred where ground layers were species-poor. The best predictors of ground-layer community compositions were hydrological and topographic, whereas epiphytes were most associated with macroclimate and tree abundances. We conclude that lichens on different substrates 'move in different circles': compositional gradients did not agree and the environmental gradients most important to each lichen stratum were not the same. The conditions which strongly influence one vegetation stratum may have little bearing upon another. As global changes modify habitats, an incremental change in environment may lead community trajectories to diverge among lichen strata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Specific leaf area (SLA, leaf area per unit dry mass) is a key canopy structural characteristic, a measure of photosynthetic capacity, and an important input into many terrestrial process models. Although many studies have examined SLA variation, relatively few data exist from high latitude, climate-sensitive permafrost regions. We measured SLA and soil and topographic properties across a boreal forest permafrost transition, in which dominant tree species changed as permafrost deepened from 54 to >150 cm over 75 m hillslope transects in Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed, Alaska. We characterized both linear and threshold relationships between topographic and edaphic variables and SLA and developed a conceptual model of these relationships. We found that the depth of the soil active layer above permafrost was significantly and positively correlated with SLA for both coniferous and deciduous boreal tree species. Intraspecific SLA variation was associated with a fivefold increase in net primary production, suggesting that changes in active layer depth due to permafrost thaw could strongly influence ecosystem productivity. While this is an exploratory study to begin understanding SLA variation in a non-contiguous permafrost system, our results indicate the need for more extensive evaluation across larger spatial domains. These empirical relationships and associated uncertainty can be incorporated into ecosystem models that use dynamic traits, improving our ability to predict ecosystem-level carbon cycling responses to ongoing climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Boreal forest and tundra biomes are key components of the Earth system because the mobilization of large carbon stocks and changes in energy balance could act as positive feedbacks to ongoing climate change. In Alaska, wildfire is a primary driver of ecosystem structure and function, and a key mechanism coupling high‐latitude ecosystems to global climate. Paleoecological records reveal sensitivity of fire regimes to climatic and vegetation change over centennial–millennial time scales, highlighting increased burning concurrent with warming or elevated landscape flammability. To quantify spatiotemporal patterns in fire‐regime variability, we synthesized 27 published sediment‐charcoal records from four Alaskan ecoregions, and compared patterns to paleoclimate and paleovegetation records. Biomass burning and fire frequency increased significantly in boreal forest ecoregions with the expansion of black spruce, ca. 6,000–4,000 years before present (yr BP). Biomass burning also increased during warm periods, particularly in the Yukon Flats ecoregion from ca. 1,000 to 500 yr BP. Increases in biomass burning concurrent with constant fire return intervals suggest increases in average fire severity (i.e., more biomass burning per fire) during warm periods. Results also indicate increases in biomass burning over the last century across much of Alaska that exceed Holocene maxima, providing important context for ongoing change. Our analysis documents the sensitivity of fire activity to broad‐scale environmental change, including climate warming and biome‐scale shifts in vegetation. The lack of widespread, prolonged fire synchrony suggests regional heterogeneity limited simultaneous fire‐regime change across our study areas during the Holocene. This finding implies broad‐scale resilience of the boreal forest to extensive fire activity, but does not preclude novel responses to 21st‐century changes. If projected increases in fire activity over the 21st century are realized, they would be unprecedented in the context of the last 8,000 yr or more. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fire severity affects both ecosystem N-loss and post-fire N-balance. Climate change is altering the fire regime of interior Alaska, although the effects on Siberian alder (Alnus viridis ssp. fruticosa) annual N-fixation input (kg N ha-1 yr-1) and ecosystem N-balance are largely unknown. We established 263 study plots across two burn scars within the Yukon-Tanana Uplands ecoregion of interior Alaska. Siberian alder N-input was quantified by post-fire age, fire severity, and stand type. We modeled the components of Siberian alder N-input using environmental variables and fire severity within and across burn scars and estimated post-fire N-balance using N-loss (volatilized N) and N-gain [biological N-fixation and atmospheric deposition]. Mean nodule-level N-fixation rate was 70% higher 11-years post-fire (12.88 ± 1.18 μmol N g-1 hr-1) than 40-years post-fire (7.58 ± 0.59 μmol N g-1 hr-1). Structural equation modeling indicated that fire severity had a negative effect on Siberian alder density, but a positive effect on live nodule biomass (g nodule m-2 plant-1). Post-fire Siberian alder N-input was highest in 11-year old moderately burned deciduous stands (11.53 ± 0.22 kg N ha-1 yr-1), and lowest in 11-year old stands that converted from black spruce to deciduous dominance after severe fire (0.06 ± 0.003 kg N ha-1 yr-1). Over a 138-year fire return interval, N-gains in converted black spruce stands are estimated to offset 15% of volatilized N, whereas N-gains in burned deciduous stands likely exceed volatilized N by an order of magnitude. High Siberian alder density and nodule biomass drives N-input in burned deciduous stands, while low N-fixer density (including Siberian alder) limits N-input in high severity black spruce stands not underlain by permafrost. A severe fire regime that converts black spruce stands to deciduous dominance without alder recruitment may induce progressive N-losses which alter boreal forest ecosystem patterns and processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interior Alaska, USA, is the least‐studied region in Alaska for breeding shorebirds because of challenging accessibility and expectations of low densities and abundances. We estimated lowland and upland shorebird population sizes on 370,420 ha of military lands in interior Alaska boreal forest from May–July 2016 and 2017. We modified the Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring (PRISM) protocol used elsewhere in Alaska and incorporated a probability‐based sampling design and dependent double‐observer methods. We pooled all lowland shorebird and all upland shorebird observations and estimated abundance using Huggins closed captures models in Program MARK. Estimated abundances of all lowland and upland shorebirds were 42,239 ± 13,431 (SE) and 3,523 ± 494, respectively. The survey area is important for shorebirds in Alaska. We estimate that military lands in interior Alaska support 45,762 ± 13,925 shorebirds, including 7 species of conservation concern. Higher abundance of lowland shorebirds was best explained by lower elevation, lower percent scrub canopy, and higher percent water on plots. Higher abundance of upland shorebirds was best explained by higher elevation and increased distance to wetland. Our modified Arctic PRISM protocol was effective for surveys in the boreal forest and we recommend continued use of method modifications for future shorebird surveys in boreal forests. Identifying baseline abundances of shorebirds using interior Alaska is an important step in monitoring distributional shifts and potential future population declines. © 2020 The Authors. The Journal of Wildlife Management published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of The Wildlife Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest–tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site‐specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non‐growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1–2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103–104 m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model‐based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global‐change‐related biotic and abiotic implications, including land–atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Disturbances can interrupt feedbacks that maintain stable plant community structure and create windows of opportunity for vegetation to shift to alternative states. Boreal forests are dominated by tree species that overlap considerably in environmental niche, but there are few tests of what conditions initiate and sustain different forest states. Here, we examine patterns of post‐fire growth and density of tree seedlings in early succession and use structural equation models to estimate relative effects of environmental and pre‐fire conditions, fire characteristics, and biotic interactions. We surveyed tree seedling recruits for 13 yr across a broad range of environmental and fire conditions (n = 89) in Alaskan black spruce stands that burned in 2004. Densities of established seedlings at 13 yr were strongly determined by initial recruitment that occurred within 2 yr after fire. High proportional combustion of the soil organic layer (fire severity) led to increased densities of deciduous seedlings but not of black spruce and had a positive influence on aboveground biomass of all species. Biotic interactions such as mammalian herbivory or woody competition, potential mechanisms for relay floristic succession, had no detectable effects on tree seedling densities or biomass. Repeated surveys instead suggested persistent shifts in successional trajectories of tree communities from spruce to deciduous dominance at sites where high fire severity created positive conditions for deciduous seedling recruitment and growth. Unless future species interactions alter the deciduous dominance of tree seedling composition, the vegetation transformations that we observed in response to high fire severity are likely to persist over the short fire cycle that increasingly characterizes the fire regime of Interior Alaska. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Satellite imagery has been widely used for the assessment of wildfire burn severity within the scientific community and fire management agencies. Multiple indices have been proposed to assess burn severity, among which the differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) is arguably the most commonly used index that is expected to provide an objective and consistent assessment. However, although evidence of variability in the dNBR-based assessment of burn severity driven by image pair selection has been shown in many studies, the comprehensive examination of the extent of the bias resulting from the image selection has been lacking. In this study, we focus on three factors of the image selection process which are encountered by most Landsat-derived dNBR applications, including the sensor combination and the difference in timing of image acquisition (for both the year and seasonality) of pre- and post-fire image pairs. Through separate analyses, each targeting a single factor, we show that Landsat sensor combination between the pre- and post-fire images has a limited impact on the dNBR values. The difference in the year of acquisition between the images in the image pairs is shown to influence dNBR assessment with a noticeable increase in mean dNBR (>0.1) with only a single year difference between images compared to multi-year differences. However, differences in the image acquisition seasons and the resulting phenological differences is shown to impact dNBR values most considerably. Based on our results, we warn against the calculation of dNBR when the images are acquired in different seasons. We believe that despite the existence of multiple derivatives of dNBR, there remains a need for an improved version; one that is less susceptible to the phenological impacts introduced by the selected images. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the entirety of basin-scale C cycling (DOC fluxes and CO2 exchanges) are central to a holistic perspective of boreal forest biogeochemistry today. Shifts in the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) delivery in streams and eventually into oceans can be expected, while simultaneously CO2 emission may exceed CO2 fixation, leading to forests becoming stronger CO2 sources than sinks amplifying rising trace gases in the atmosphere. At May Creek, a representative late-successional boreal forest watershed at the headwaters of the Copper River Basin, Alaska, we quantified the seasonality of DOC flux and landscape-scale CO2 exchange (eddy covariance) over two seasonal cycles. We deployed in situ fDOM and conductivity sensors, performed campaign sampling for water quality (DOC and water isotopes), and used fluorescence spectroscopy to ascertain DOC character. Simultaneously, we quantified net CO2 exchange using a 100 ft eddy covariance tower. Results indicate DOC exports were pulse-driven and mediated by precipitation events. Both frequency and magnitude of pulse-driven DOC events diminished as the seasonal thaw depth deepened, with inputs from terrestrial sources becoming major contributors to the DOC pool with decreasing snowmelt contribution to the hydrograph. A three-component parallel factorial analysis (PARAFAC) model indicated DOC liberated in late-season may be bioavailable (tyrosine-like). Combining Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) measurements indicate that the May Creek watershed fixes 142–220 g C m-2 yr-1 and only 0.40–0.57 g C m-2 yr-1 is leached out as DOC. Thus, the May Creek watershed and similar mature spruce forest dominated watersheds in the Copper River Basin are currently large ecosystem C sinks and exceeding C conservative. An understanding of DOC fluxes from Gulf of Alaska watersheds is important for characterizing future climate change-induced seasonal shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lynx canadensis Kerr, 1792, commonly called the Canada lynx, is a medium size felid and is the second largest of the four species in the genus Lynx. It is distributed throughout the boreal forest of most of Canada and Alaska and across portions of the northern United States. It prefers dense, regenerating coniferous forests with moderate canopy and understory cover. L. canadensis is a snowshoe hare specialist, and its ecology, morphology, and behavior closely reflect that of its main prey. It is listed as "Least Concern" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources, is on Appendix II of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, and its population size trend is considered stable. However, the status of United States subpopulations, being largely peripheral to the Canadian population, is more tenuous and the species is protected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future of boreal forests in Alaska, United States, will likely consist of more deciduous-dominant stands because larger and more severe fires facilitate the establishment of deciduous species such as trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) and Alaska birch (Betula neoalaskana Sarg.). Whether stands transition to a deciduous-dominant system or mixed-wood forest or return to being dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) Britton, Sterns & Poggenb.) depends on the capacity of regenerating black spruce to grow and produce seed before the next fire. We hypothesized that winter herbivory by snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus Erxleben, 1777) can suppress black spruce under deciduous canopies. We addressed this question by measuring changes in spruce height and herbivory across 54 plots in Interior Alaska that burned 8–88 years ago and related these data to plot-level data collected by the Bonanza Creek Long-Term Ecological Research program. Spruce were more likely browsed at deciduous-dominant sites with dense canopies, and this browsing likely reduced their height growth. Although we found more subtle effects of browsing on height at the individual level, browsing was an important variable in a confirmatory path analysis at the plot level. These observations affirm our broader hypothesis of the selectivity of hare browsing, in that snowshoe hares prefer to browse spruce that are taller and faster growing, effectively "leveling" regenerating seedlings and saplings so that browsed and unbrowsed individuals within a site are the same height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fires in boreal forests of Alaska are changing, threatening human health and ecosystems. Given expected increases in fire activity with climate warming, insight into the controls on fire size from the time of ignition is necessary. Such insight may be increasingly useful for fire management, especially in cases where many ignitions occur in a short time period. Here we investigated the controls and predictability of final fire size at the time of ignition. Using decision trees, we show that ignitions can be classified as leading to small, medium or large fires with 50.4 ± 5.2% accuracy. This was accomplished using two variables: vapour pressure deficit and the fraction of spruce cover near the ignition point. The model predicted that 40% of ignitions would lead to large fires, and those ultimately accounted for 75% of the total burned area. Other machine learning classification algorithms, including random forests and multi-layer perceptrons, were tested but did not outperform the simpler decision tree model. Applying the model to areas with intensive human management resulted in overprediction of large fires, as expected. This type of simple classification system could offer insight into optimal resource allocation, helping to maintain a historical fire regime and protect Alaskan ecosystems. We used machine learning to classify ignition events as leading to small, medium or large fires. Using only two variables, we show that fires can be classified into three size groups with 50% accuracy. This simple framework for fire size prediction may be useful for fire management given limited resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Four-year and nine-year measurements of CO 2 flux at two burned forests at Alaska. • 13 years after fire, the ecosystem become CO 2 sink. • Recovery of GPP was explained by an increase in LAI. • Anomalous weathers increased the CO 2 emissions rather than uptake. • Regional post-fire CO 2 emissions was one third to fourth of the direct CO 2 emissions. Fire is the major disturbance in North American boreal forests, and is thought to be the most important process that determines the carbon balance in North American boreal forests. This study conducted four years of tower flux measurements in a burned ecosystem from one to four years after a fire, and nine years of measurements in a young regeneration from five to 13 years after a fire in interior Alaska. The fire scar acted as a source of 248 g C m−2 yr-1 one year after the fire, and the annual CO 2 emissions continuously decreased until seven years after the fire. At the final year of the study period, 13 years after the fire, the older forest became a CO 2 sink. During the 13 years after the fires, the total post-fire emissions were 767 g C m−2 across both sites. Gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (RE) recovered to those of mature black spruce forests 10 years after the fire. The successional recovery of GPP was mostly explained by the recovery of the leaf area index (LAI). Anomalous weather, such as a cold spring, hot summer, and high summer rainfall, increased the CO 2 emissions rather than the uptake. In interior Alaska, the post-fire CO 2 emissions (35–48 Tg C) were estimated to be approximately one third to fourth of the direct CO 2 emissions (156 Tg C) by combustions from 1998 to 2017, which indicates that post-fire emissions are important to the regional CO 2 balance. The forest successional trajectory at young age still contains large uncertainties due to lack of data, and thus adding new data improves our understanding of the post-fire CO 2 balance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]