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Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The climate in Alaska is changing with temperatures and precipitation increasing, and experts say those changes will continue. The changing climate will, among other kinds of social and economic effects, damage public infrastructure throughout Alaska, adding to maintenance costs and shortening the lifespan of everything from schools to sanitation systems. The question of how much cost impact this change will have and when the costs are expected to occur is the question of significant concern and debate. One approach to answering this question is addressed in this paper. Based on a probabilistic model, the results in this paper estimate how much climate change will add to future costs of public infrastructure in Alaska. Based on a database of public infrastructure throughout Alaska and the estimated replacement costs and lifespans for the various types of infrastructure statewide, the model provides a first analysis of climate impact on infrastructure costs. As an additional refinement of the model, the paper presents two potential adaptation approaches to reduce the impacts of climate change on the adaptation process. Code adaptation and event adaptation are introduced as two potential processes, based on existing responses to natural disasters, that may be employed to adapt to climate change. These adaptation approaches have the potential to reduce climate change costs by 10–45%. This is significant when the total potential cost impact to infrastructure from climate change is projected to add 10–20% to infrastructure costs by 2030 and 10–12% by 2080 under different climate projections and taking design adaptations into account. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This analysis reports on the projected cost of Alaska''s public infrastructure at risk from rapid climate change. Specifically, we coupled projections of future climate with engineering rules of thumb to estimate how thawing permafrost, increased flooding, and increased coastal erosion affect annualized replacement costs for nearly 16,000 structures. We conclude that climate change could add $3.6–$6.1 billion (+10% to +20% above normal wear and tear) to future costs for public infrastructure from now to 2030 and $5.6–$7.6 billion (+10% to +12%) from now to 2080. These estimates take into account different possible levels of climate change and assume agencies strategically adapt infrastructure to changing conditions. In addition to implementing a risk-based economic analysis of climate change impacts, this research effort demonstrates that implementing plausible adaptation strategies could offset impacts by up to 45% over the long-run. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]