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Background: HIV-infected children have less access to combination antiretroviral therapy as compared with adults in resource-limited settings. Growth faltering, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and high mortality are frequently seen., Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed with parameters extracted from the Drug Resource Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition database for HIV-infected, antiretroviral naïve children under 15 years presenting for care at 17 Drug Resource Enhancement against AIDS and Malnutrition centers in Mozambique, Malawi and Guinea between January 2005 to December 2008. Predictors of time-to-death, time-to-LTFU and persistence of malnutrition by Cox's regression and Kaplan-Meier were determined., Results: 2215 children presented to care with 1343 (61%) being ≤ 5 years. At baseline, stunting and malnutrition occurred in 40% and 25%, respectively; 75% of 2149 children had CD4 cell percentages less than 20; median HIV RNA, log10 cp/mL, was 4.97 in 1927 patients. Over time 238 children died (10.7%; 2.7% person-years [PY]) 63 were LTFU (2.8%; 0.7% PY). By multivariate analysis, mortality was associated with virus load (hazards ratio: 1.19; confidence interval: 1.01-1.402, P = 0.038) and reduced weight-for-age Z scores (hazards ratio: 0.590; confidence interval: 0.53-0.66, P < 0.001). LTFU was associated with low weight-for-height Z scores (hazards ratio: 0.71; confidence interval: 0.51-0.97, P = 0.031). At 12 months after combination antiretroviral therapy, anthropometric parameters significantly improved in 1226 children (P < 0.001); virus load declined to <400 copies/mL in over 60%., Conclusions: Despite advanced HIV disease, children initiating combination antiretroviral therapy had mortality rates of 2.7% p/PY with overall attrition rates of 11.7% p/100 PY, with significant reversal of negative anthropometric markers, and improvement of immunological and virological parameters in children with 12 months of follow-up.

Background: HIV RNA monitoring is not available in most antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs in sub-Saharan Africa; switch to second-line therapy is mostly guided by clinical/immunological criteria. This may lead to unnecessary disease progression and drug resistance accumulation. We investigated the prognostic value of virological and immunological status 6 months after ART initiation with respect to death, loss to follow-up, and treatment switch., Methods: We considered treatment-naive HIV-1-infected patients, starting ART with available 6-month visit and subsequent follow-up, enrolled in a prospective cohort comprising 5 ART sites in 3 sub-Saharan countries. Outcome measures included the time from 6-month visit to death for all causes, loss to follow-up, and switch to second line., Results: Of 2539 patients, 62% were females, their median pre-ART CD4 count was 215 cells per microliter, median HIV RNA 4.6 Log10 copies per milliliter, 30% were on WHO stage 3/4. At 6 months, 85% had HIV RNA <1000 copies per milliliter. During 3112 person-years follow-up after the 6-month visit, 91 patients died. Death was predicted by 6-month HIV RNA ≥10,000 copies per milliliter, adherence, and 6-month CD4 <200 cells per microliter. The 2-year estimated probability of surviving ranged from 0.69 (with 6-month HIV RNA ≥10,000 and CD4 <200) to 0.95 (with HIV RNA <1000 and CD4 ≥200). Loss to follow-up (1.95 per 100 person-years follow-up) was predicted by the 6-month HIV RNA >10,000 copies per milliliter and adherence but not by CD4. Switch to second line (6.94 per 100 person-years follow-up) was predicted by 6-month HIV RNA and CD4., Conclusions: In patients starting ART in sub-Saharan Africa, 6-month HIV RNA independently predicts subsequent survival, retention to care, and switch to second-line therapy. This measure warrants further evaluation as specific time point monitoring option.