Search

Scholars have often focused on the negative involvement of young people in violent conflicts in the African continent, subsequently denying them the attention they need during post-conflict peacebuilding processes. In South Sudan, this study challenges the negative portrayal of young people who participated in the country’s civil wars, arguing that they were victims of their political and economic circumstances. Using primary and secondary data, the author interviewed youth leaders leading various civil society youth organisations promoting the country’s peacebuilding process and used academic papers, websites, newspaper articles, and reports of credible local and international organizations. The paper concludes that while indeed young people participated in South Sudan’s pre and post-independent conflicts, they were mere victims of their political and economic predicaments. Thus, instead of entirely viewing young people’s role in the conflicts from the ‘perpetrator angle,’ we should focus on examining it from the ‘perception of victimhood.’ This lays the foundation for their full inclusion in the post-conflict peacebuilding processes such as disarmament, demobilization and reintegration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political order following rebel victory in civil wars has seen remarkable variation. While some rebellions transform their victories into durable regimes, others do not. This article develops a typological framework to assess the ability, and inability, of victorious rebellions to capture the state after overthrowing incumbents, with a focus on Africa. We argue that these outcomes - state capture, failed state capture, or mixed - depend on two key dimensions of political and military centralization before victory: (1) the distribution of power between rebel organizations participating in the civil war and (2) the communal structure within them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under what conditions do states protect minority rights in a context of domestic resistance? Recent decades have seen rapid divergence on LGBT rights worldwide, with Africa presented as "norms antipreneur" in the face of international pressure. Yet, in 1996, South Africa was the first country in the world to provide constitutional protection on grounds of sexual orientation. This article develops an original theory on LGBT rights protection using a conflict-to-rights framework. Employing process tracing, elite interviews and archival sources, I show how a situation of insurgency allows LGBT activists to build networks and increase egalitarian attitudes to attain in-group status. Continued violence also works to block public participation in policy-making while dividing opposition forces, allowing a tiny group of activists to effectively lobby for change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of our study is to analyze the effects of opportunity inequalities on internal armed conflict in developing countries. In a panel of 69 developing countries, over the period 2000–2020 and using the Logit model, we find a positive and significant relationship between inequality of opportunity and the risk of internal armed conflict in developing countries. The effects are higher in Africa than in Asia. As our results are validated by changing the dependent variable and estimation technique, we recommend, on the one hand, increasing investment in mobility and access to basic goods and services. On the other, we recommend the creation of decent jobs through increased investment, to improve developing countries' attractiveness to foreign direct investment as a source of formal jobs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this article is to examine the impact of urbanization and civil conflicts on the severity of food insecurity for a panel of 43 African countries over the period 2000–2020. Subsequently, the heterogeneous choice models approach was used for the estimations. The results show that urbanization and civil conflict increase food insecurity. The parallel line probability hypothesis results specifically show that a one‐unit increase in urban growth rate increases the probability of belonging to a high‐risk food insecurity category by more than.6 times. Furthermore, the results show that the impacts of urbanization on food insecurity are modulated by civil conflicts in Africa leading to the net effect of.692. This corresponds to the policy threshold of 2.315 when the net positive effect is canceled out. Therefore, this study strongly recommends the need for African economies to develop urban agriculture while controlling the pace of urbanization in order to reduce food insecurity and avoid possible civil wars. Related Articles: Asare‐Nuamah, Peter, Anthony Amoah, and Simplice A. Asongu. 2023. "Achieving Food Security in Ghana: Does Governance Matter?" Politics & Policy 51(4): 614–35. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12540. Ayanoore, Ishmael, and Sam Hickey. 2022. "Reframing the Politics of Natural Resource Governance in Africa: Insights from the Local Content Legislation Process in Ghana." Politics & Policy 50(1): 119–36. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12449. Oehmke, James F., Sera L. Young, Godfrey Bahiigwa, Boaz Blackie Keizire, and Lori Ann Post. 2018. "The Behavioral‐Economics Basis of Mutual Accountability to Achieve Food Security." Politics & Policy 46(1): 32–57. https://doi.org/10.1111/polp.12244. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does UN peacekeeping promote democracy in countries wracked by civil war? Existing studies are limited and reach contradictory conclusions. We develop a theory to explain how peacekeepers can help overcome obstacles to democratization in conflict-affected countries, then test our theory by combining three original datasets on UN mandates, personnel, and activities covering all UN missions in Africa since the end of the Cold War. Using fixed effects and instrumental variables estimators, we show that UN missions with democracy promotion mandates are strongly positively correlated with the quality of democracy in host countries but that the magnitude of the relationship is larger for civilian than for uniformed personnel, stronger when peacekeepers engage rather than bypass host governments when implementing reforms, driven in particular by UN election administration and oversight, and more robust during periods of peace than during periods of civil war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the development of the journal "Civil Wars" from 2006 to 2010. The new editors aimed to expand the journal's focus and establish its position in the field of study, as civil wars were becoming increasingly influential in global politics. The journal sought to document and analyze these conflicts, while also engaging with emerging trends and theoretical debates. Special issues were introduced, covering topics such as security sector reform, forced migration, and insurgency and counterinsurgency. The journal also broadened its scope to include peace processes, peacebuilding, and statebuilding. The article discusses the growth of civil wars research in the early 21st century and how the journal addressed various aspects of civil wars, including non-state actors and conflicts in the Middle East and Africa. The editors recognized the need for an enhanced reviews section to capture developments in the field and ultimately stepped down to allow for new ideas and approaches. The article concludes by celebrating the success of the journal during their tenure and expressing optimism for future growth and collaboration in civil wars research. [Extracted from the article]

Ian Taylor, my PhD co-supervisor, influenced my interrogation of peacebuilding theories and paradigms in many ways. Apart from his lifelong dedication to critical studies and political economy, Ian worked hard to deconstruct the “Liberal Peace” paradigm in some of his writings. During my doctoral studies at the University of St Andrews, Ian and I debated different peace paradigms in terms of their utility, deficiencies and opportunities, especially for post-conflict and so-called “fragile” African states. These discussions influenced my thoughts and lived experiences as a scholar/practitioner. It is, therefore, with a high sense of appreciation for Ian’s influential works interrogating peacebuilding paradigms that I write to honour his memory in this special issue of Contemporary Voices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Whereas previous research shows that peace agreements which include a broad segment of society are more likely to lead to sustainable peace, little effort has gone into explaining inclusion itself. We address this gap in the literature by providing the first large-N study to examine the causes of inclusive peace negotiations across civil wars. We argue that civil society actors can gain leverage through mobilization of civilian protest, or build trust through dialogue efforts, thereby enhancing the chances of inclusion of non-warring actors at the negotiation table. The argument is examined by analysing unique and new monthly data on peacemaking efforts in all intrastate armed conflicts in Africa and the Americas, 1989–2018, including measures beyond mere nominal participation, such as whether civil society actors or political parties had substantive roles as either mediators or full participants at the peace talks. Our findings show that protests by civil society actors increase the likelihood that non-warring actors will have a seat at the negotiation table, whereas we find no such effect concerning dialogue efforts. The article contributes by providing new insights into how nonviolent action can shape peace processes by opening the doors to negotiations and is thus part of an emerging research agenda that seeks to bring together the fields of civil resistance and inclusive peace processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Turkey puts an emphasis on the African connections in general and also strengthening its military connection with the African countries. The economic, diplomatic, cultural partnerships of Turkey and Africa are more discussed but the security, army and military industry connection between Ankara and the African countries is less captured, according to some experts, so now we put the dimension of security, army and military industry in the centre of our study. Turkish army and military industry is present in Africa in various forms: Turkey is supporting international peacekeeping missions in Africa, Turkish military export is growing on the continent, Ankara is making defence, military agreements with several African country, Turkish army has training programs for African soldiers. And lastly the Turkish army is present in two countries: Libya, where Turkish troops support the government in the civil war, and in Somalia, where they are operating a military training camp. We would like to study through these actions how Turkey is connected to African countries and analyze whether these are individual actions that connect Ankara and the African countries or they indicate levels of deepening connections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does violence during civil war shape citizens' demand for state-provided security, especially in settings where non-state actors compete with the state for citizens' loyalties? This article draws on Hobbesian theory to argue that in post-conflict countries, citizens who were more severely victimized by wartime violence should substitute away from localized authorities and towards centralized ones, especially the state. The author tests the theory by combining two original surveys with existing media and non-governmental organization data on wartime violence in Liberia. The study shows that citizens who were more severely affected by violence during the Liberian civil war are more likely to demand state-provided security, both in absolute terms and relative to non-state alternatives. More sporadic collective violence in the post-conflict period does not reverse this substitution effect. Also consistent with Hobbesian theory, citizens who were more severely victimized are more fearful of threats to peace almost a decade later. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a systematic literature review of 109 empirical articles published between 1977 and 2017 in English and French on management accounting (MA) in Africa. Our main results are synthesized into seven larger themes and an evidence-based explanatory framework regarding MA in Africa. This framework suggests that MA in Africa is subject to various antecedents, some of which are specific to African countries and contexts. In addition, we find that current MA practices and systems may have mainly hampered, rather than fostered, performance and development in many African countries and enterprises. However, our review also shows overall that such critical views on MA in Africa are rather found in internationally ranked English-language journals, than in less esteemed English-language and Francophone journals. According to our analyses, the more critical findings can largely be explained by the overriding paradigm of neopatrimonialism, while the less critical and more positivist findings rather adhere to contingency thinking. Finally, the present review highlights a need for more research about MA in the informal African economy, the connection between MA and development-related sustainability issues, such as civil wars and environmental management, and the impact of the increased presence of China on MA in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One way of improving forecasts is through better data. We explore how much we can improve predictions of conflict violence by introducing data reflecting third-party efforts to manage violence. By leveraging new sub-national data on all UN peacekeeping deployments in Africa, 1994–2020, from the Geocoded Peacekeeping (Geo-PKO) dataset, we predict changes in violence at the local level. The advantage of data on peacekeeping deployments is that these vary over time and space, as opposed to many structural variables commonly used. We present two peacekeeping models that contain several local peacekeeping features, each with a separate set of additional variables that form the respective benchmark. The mean errors of our predictions only improve marginally. However, comparing observed and predicted changes in violence, the peacekeeping features improve our ability to identify the correct sign of the change. These results are particularly strong when we limit the sample to countries that have seen peacekeeping deployments. For an ambitious forecasting project, like ViEWS, it may thus be highly relevant to incorporate fine-grained and frequently updated data on peacekeeping troops. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article addresses the discrepancy between the explanation and the prediction of political violence through the development of different models that approximate the decision-making on war and peace. Borrowing from the crisis bargaining literature, the prediction models particularly consider the situational attributes through which players can challenge the status quo. We distinguish between direct and indirect proxies of a weakening of the status quo and show that adding decision-making data can improve the accuracy of cross-sectional forecasting models. The study, which demonstrates the increased conflict risk due to the COVID-19 pandemic and thus another development upsetting the status quo, discusses the usefulness of decision-making forecasts through various case study illustrations. Este artículo aborda la discrepancia entre la explicación y la predicción de la violencia política mediante la elaboración de diversos modelos que se acercan a la toma de decisiones sobre la guerra y la paz. Inspirados en las publicaciones sobre negociaciones de crisis, los modelos de predicción consideran, en particular, las características situacionales a través de las cuales las piezas claves pueden desafiar el statu quo. Distinguimos entre indicadores directos e indirectos de un debilitamiento del statu quo y demostramos que la incorporación de datos sobre la toma de decisiones puede mejorar la precisión de los modelos de previsión transversal. El estudio, que demuestra el aumento del riesgo de conflicto durante la pandemia de la COVID-19 y, por lo tanto, otro acontecimiento que altera el statu quo, analiza la utilidad de las previsiones para la toma de decisiones mediante diferentes ejemplos de casos prácticos. Cet article aborde la divergence entre l'explication et la prédiction de la violence politique par le développement de différents modèles qui permettent une estimation des prises de décisions sur la guerre et la paix. S'inspirant de la littérature sur les négociations de crises les modèles de prédiction prennent en particulier en compte les attributs situationnels par lesquels les acteurs peuvent remettre en question le statu quo. Nous distinguons les variables directes des variables indirectes de l'affaiblissement du statu quo et montrons que l'ajout de données sur les prises de décisions peut améliorer la précision des modèles de prévision transversaux. L'étude, qui démontre l'augmentation du risque de conflit par la pandémie de COVID et donc une autre évolution bouleversant le statu quo, discute de l'utilité des prévisions de prises de décisions à travers diverses illustrations par des études de cas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce the Anatomy of Resistance Campaigns (ARC) dataset, which records information on 1,426 organizations that participated in events of maximalist violent and nonviolent contention in Africa from 1990 to 2015. The ARC dataset contains 17 variables covering organization-level features such as type, age, leadership, goals, and interorganizational alliances. These data facilitate new measurements of key concepts in the study of contentious politics, such as the social and ideological diversity of resistance episodes, in addition to measures of network centralization and fragmentation. The ARC dataset helps resolve existing debates in the field and opens new avenues of inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A significant proportion of trade in Africa takes place informally. In this paper we postulate that informal trade is more sensitive to securityrelated trade costs than formal trade. To test this hypothesis, we combine unique aggregated survey data on Uganda's informal crossborder trade with formal customs data and exploit the spatial and time variation of the South Sudanese civil war to causally identify the impact of conflict on different types of trade. Our preferred estimates suggest that the civil war reduced Uganda's informal exports to South Sudan by as much as 80%, compared to an estimated effect of 12% for formal exports. Further, we show that the impact of the conflict on formal exports is driven entirely by a reduction of industrial goods exports while exports of agricultural products continued to flow, presumably reflecting necessities in consumption for which willingness to pay is high. Taken together our results are consistent with the hypothesis that security‐related trade costs have heterogeneous effects on different types of international trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current humanity is experiencing extraordinary levels of material and ideal connectivity. Change being constant and stability exceptional and provisional; one has to expect a significant acceleration of change in the next hundred years. The core question is therefore: What kind of future is being shaped for the next generations, our grandchildren and greatgrand children? Without going too far back in time, it is fair to say that the current world was shaped by two different, successive and antinomic global processes: imperial expansion, colonization and domination on the one hand, and resistance, struggle for liberation, and the search for a more equitable world order on the other hand. Against all the odds, European imperialism, civil war, wars of aggression, and Western ostracism, China was an influential actor in the struggle for liberation of Africa from colonialism, got its rightful place in the international world order and is now the second economy of the planet. Globalization resulted in the emergence of a de facto multipolar world, with different models of societies and organizational cultures. These are dialectic processes constantly in operation, but there is however a third crucial area of interest, generally taken granted, that of people and culture. Peaceful relations and sustainable economic development backed by greater cultural and demographic connectivity are better options for the construction of a novel future for humanity. Universities and higher education institutions can play an important role in spearheading and implementing these new orientations for the construction of a future peaceful and sustainable human world in which war will be outlawed. This paper outlines what academics can do to promote such a vision. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We often find the application of indistinctive, brutal and extraordinary violence by all fighters and soldiers in terrorist, insurgency, and counter-insurgency acts in Africa. This article argues that we need a code of honor for those bearing arms to limit these unrestricted acts of violence, a code of honor that combines military duties with the demands of civil society in the model democratic warrior. The changes to the global system that followed the end of the Cold War are widely regarded as requiring a different kind of soldier for democratic societies. A number of writers have proposed that the new model should be that of the “warrior,” a concept that highlights the psychological and social distinctiveness of those who bear arms. Such men and (rarely) women are often conceived as operating according to a distinctive code of honor that sets them apart from civil society, usually in a positive way. But we know that the concept of honor may also lead to a terrible escalation. So, the task is to reconnect the concepts—warrior and honor—to civil society to de-escalate the ongoing brutal violence in civil wars. There is no honor in killing innocent people. On the contrary, it is perhaps the most egregious act against one’s honor and dignity to torture, violate, or kill the innocent. The concept of the democratic warrior seeks to reinstate honor and dignity to those bearing arms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite the importance of having continuity in third-party involvement, many third parties lack the ability to commit as long-term peace guarantors. We argue that non-state actors and third parties with vested interests in peace and stability will be more likely to sustain involvement in post-conflict periods. Analysis of monthly level data from the Managing Intrastate Conflict (MIC) project confirms that third parties that have had wartime experience as conflict managers are more likely to get involved in post-conflict peace processes, regardless of whether the conflict management is in the form of peacekeeping missions, mediation or good offices; regardless of whether the third party is geographically proximate; and regardless of whether the third party is a state or non-state actor. The results also confirm that third-party geographic proximity and other measures of vested interests additively increase the propensity for postwar involvement. However, wartime conflict management experience matters less for third parties with vested interests, suggesting the additional importance of demand-side determinants of third-party conflict management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transitional justice processes take on a range of different forms. Much attention is paid to their face value rather than the underlying characteristics that embody the true nature of these mechanisms. This articles argues that more attention needs to be paid to one underlying factor that has critical implications for the role of transitional justice in shaping new political dynamics: the impartiality or selectiveness of transitional justice processes. Using a comparative analysis of state-sponsored transitional justice in twelve African countries, we explore the contextual factors that appear to impact on impartiality, in order to make sense of the politics that shape transitional justice. The findings suggest that impartial transitional justice appears to flow from processes where the power balance is more equal, a situation that appears enhanced in contexts where there is some degree of democracy leading up to the transition, where the conflict was in the form of repression rather than civil war, and where change came as part of a reform process, rather than a military victory. This raises serious questions about which contexts may be amenable to effective transitional justice processes, while also highlighting the danger of political manipulation of transitional justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The main aim of this paper is to analyse possible persistent French neo-colonialism in Africa. The first section deals with the theoretical framework of the term under scrutiny, followed by an analysis of the genesis of contemporary French foreign policy towards Africa by comparing the French presidential administrations, as well as analysing the persistent French military presence in Africa. The paper also focuses on the study of France's relations with African countries using the example of Côte d'Ivoire and of the French military intervention during the civil war in Côte d'Ivoire (2002). The paper discusses the main consequences of French interventions in the region, and the result of the analysis is a comprehensive assessment of current mutual relations and of the current French influence in sub-Saharan Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This chapter describes how chronic conflict, warfare, and persecution, as lived experiences, have created significant mental distress in communities on the African continent. There is a growing body of research that highlights increasing mental distress in Africa e.g., about sexuality, health, disease, modernity, climate, politics, culture, religion, ethnicities, race, economies etc. Many of these stresses and uncertainties are driven by political persecution, war, and conflict. This has shaped many African people's attitudes and government policies and an increasing scholarly interest in exploring these "uncertainties and mental distresses in Africa." The chapter will show how trauma, as seen in conflict/post-conflict settings in Africa, causes significant mental stress and associated social problems as well as medically-defined PTSD syndromes, anxiety, and depression which cause much morbidity and retard development in many African communities. Taking a classical look at post-traumatic stress disorder, PTSD, the chapter explores the presentation of the various physical and mental clinical syndromes related to war-trauma on the African continent and the consequent health-seeking behaviors of the African peoples in this regard. The term "culture-bound PTSD syndromes" will be introduced and discussed in the broader context of treatment, rehabilitation, and prevention on the continent and worldwide. It will also discuss the dilemma of the vicious cycles of trauma driven by appetitive aggression in today's Africa which portends to further retard socio-economic development and drives the trans-generational perpetuation of ethnic-based conflicts including genocides. Despite this mass traumatization, the chapter points to the virtual absence of post-conflict mental health policies in almost all African countries, hence leading to discussions of "best-practices" recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars debate the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on poor societies. Apparently, FDI could embolden governments to securitize rather than reform, an argument put forth recently by (Kishi, Roudabeh, Maggio, Guiseppe, & Raleigh, Clionadh. (2017). Foreign investment and state conflicts in Africa. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 23(3), https://doi.org/10.1515/peps-2017-0007) who supply evidence within a sample of Sub Saharan African countries showing that FDI increases the number of conflict events. This study takes a critical view of their argument on conceptual and methodological grounds. Using new data for the entire world as well as a sample of developing countries, this study directly tests securitization as militarization measured as military spending and the size of armed forces and finds that several alternative measurements of the stock and flow of FDI reduces militarization, results that are robust to fixed effects estimations, Heckman selection models, and models with and without controls for ongoing armed conflict and interstate tension. Testing an Africa-only sample yields no statistically significant effects either way, but compared to the global sample, an interaction of FDI in Africa does show a positive effect. This result, however, is substantively very slight compared with the net effect of the African region where military spending is unusually greater than in other regions, but size of armed forces are smaller. These results are replicated using a measure of societal security capturing more than just the absence of war as measured by the World Economic Forum's data. If FDI increases security without increasing militarization, then FDI is potentially a sound source of finance for poor countries. Case-study-based research might usefully unpack the political economy of defence spending in Africa and identify precisely how TNCs can be implicated in the story. Our results show, however, that generally, FDI might actually reduce militarization while increasing societal security beyond just the absence of armed violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

"Domination Through Law: the internationalization of legal norms in postcolonial Africa" by Mohamed Sesay is a thought-provoking book that challenges the notion that the rule of law is always beneficial for society. Sesay argues that legal norms can actually lead to social injustice and further marginalization of certain groups. He examines how power inequalities established during the colonial period have been maintained by national elites in countries like Sierra Leone and Liberia, resulting in civil war and the consolidation of ruling powers. While the book provides valuable insights, it fails to consider the correlation between the rule of law and positive outcomes such as access to education and healthcare. However, it does offer a starting point for policymakers and development implementers to reflect on decolonizing aid and promoting inclusivity and equity. [Extracted from the article]

An introduction is presented in which editor discusses articles in issue on topics including corruption and immorality related to the transatlantic slave trade in the Nigeria; and introduction of a approach, Adaptive Peace for addressing the gaps in African Peace and Security Architecture.

Mortality due to violent conflicts or political events (whether interstate, civil wars or conflicts between antagonistic groups, etc.) in countries of Africa is an issue of great concern due to the high number of victims and constant violation of human rights, which occurs daily. The participation of different types of actors, among them rebels, ethnic groups and regular troops, in these violent processes has been widely studied in numerous theoretical works based on a process of perception and intuition. This paper uses spatial modelling methods to empirically examine how these different groups of actors explain the mortality of violent political events in African countries in the period 2014–2015. The main contributions of this work consist in identifying the actors that have the greatest impact on mortality in Africa, as well as the spatial contagion effect caused by them. The results can be of use to policymakers for the design and implementation of geopolitical strategies based on more efficient empirical data with a view to reducing the mortality these actors cause in violent political events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article assesses when diversity becomes a curse in Africa. The review of literature on the causation of civil wars shows gaps, weaknesses and lack of holistic framework of analysis. It is argued in this article that the risk of violent conflict is better explained in Africa by absence of social contract as a manifestation of governance deficit rather than the presence of grievances and greed. Recognizing these gaps, this article uses the heuristic social contract framework to assess the drivers of diversity-related conflicts in Africa. Applying this social contract framework to analyze the case of the two Sudans that have been susceptible to recurrent diversity-related conflict, it is argued in this article that ethnic diversity is not a curse and it becomes a curse when there is governance deficit that is manifested in social contract and system of government that abhor and detest diversity. Transforming diversity to become a virtue requires forging a system of government and a resilient social contract that addresses the core conflict issues as well as building inclusive and accountable institutions that promote social cohesion and democratic governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an analysis of the costs of conflict for the countries that are most affected by it, namely low‐income and fragile countries in Africa. It provides an analysis of the impact of conflict on economic growth using a panel of African countries and investigates the differences between those categorized as fragile and others. It finds that there are significant differences, with fragile countries most affected by conflict. It also considers the potential spillover effects of conflict and finds that fragile states also suffer more from conflicts within neighboring states. Finally, it considers whether the results are robust to endogeneity of the conflict variable. Using instrumental variable estimation confirms the negative effect of conflict and the larger effects on fragile states and gives even larger coefficient estimates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peace is fragile, about half of all peace episodes break down within the first eight post‐conflict years. In Sub‐Saharan Africa this risk is even higher. Using survival analysis this paper suggests that while it is difficult to find correlates of peace stabilization, there are some policy relevant results. How a conflict ends is important. Negotiated settlements are fragile but the chances of peace surviving can be significantly improved through the deployment of UN peacekeeping operations. This also appears to be the case for Sub‐Saharan Africa but case study evidence suggests that peacekeepers face particularly complex situations in the region and should therefore be well resourced in order to increase their chance of success [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents ViEWS – a political violence early-warning system that seeks to be maximally transparent, publicly available, and have uniform coverage, and sketches the methodological innovations required to achieve these objectives. ViEWS produces monthly forecasts at the country and subnational level for 36 months into the future and all three UCDP types of organized violence: state-based conflict, non-state conflict, and one-sided violence in Africa. The article presents the methodology and data behind these forecasts, evaluates their predictive performance, provides selected forecasts for October 2018 through October 2021, and indicates future extensions. ViEWS is built as an ensemble of constituent models designed to optimize its predictions. Each of these represents a theme that the conflict research literature suggests is relevant, or implements a specific statistical/machine-learning approach. Current forecasts indicate a persistence of conflict in regions in Africa with a recent history of political violence but also alert to new conflicts such as in Southern Cameroon and Northern Mozambique. The subsequent evaluation additionally shows that ViEWS is able to accurately capture the long-term behavior of established political violence, as well as diffusion processes such as the spread of violence in Cameroon. The performance demonstrated here indicates that ViEWS can be a useful complement to non-public conflict-warning systems, and also serves as a reference against which future improvements can be evaluated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do different types of inequality spur violence with different targets? This article explores whom violent movements choose to target when they take to arms, by comparing civil conflicts, which target the state, to communal conflicts, which target other ethnic groups. Different types of ethnic group disadvantage relate to conflict through different mechanisms. Political exclusion is expected to promote the choice to target the central government rather than other ethnic groups, while economic disadvantages should increase the risk of both civil and communal conflicts. The different expectations stem from two important differences between political and economic horizontal inequalities: only the government has the authority to change the political distribution, while there can be many avenues to economic redistribution; and blame is more straightforwardly assigned to the government for political than for economic disadvantages. Statistical analysis of 155 politically relevant ethnic groups in Africa (1991–2009) provides support for both propositions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Peace has been elusive to the greater part of the African continent. For peace to thrive in any place, certain fundamentals for societal cohesion must be entrenched in its social fabric. This essay studies Micah 6:8, with the aim of identifying such important biblical fundamental principles for societal peace. This article employs rhetorical analysis with the historical grammatical method of textual analysis to exegete Micah 6:8. The article begins with an exploration of the biblical concepts of peace and justice. It then exegetes Micah 6:8 in its historical and literary contexts, explaining the three critical demands of YHWH in the verse, namely, to act justly (both in the judicial administration of justice and in the maintenance of right relationships in the community), to love mercy (highlighting loyal loving commitment to God and the brotherhood in covenant) and to walk humbly with God (a basic call to discipleship). This is followed by an analysis of the African crisis situation, pointing out the similarities between the socio-economic conditions of Micah's times and ours. Ultimately, these biblical principles are interconnected with the African situation, showing how the implementation of Micah's justice agenda (employing the retributive, restorative and redistributive elements of justice) is a recipe for peace in Africa. Intradisciplinary and/or interdisciplinary implications: This essay challenges the approaches towards the pursuit of peace in Africa and calls for a biblical justice approach for finding peace. It works across the disciplinary fields of biblical studies, biblical theology, public theology and social justice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Child-soldiering is one of the most painful topics to analyse. These children, who are not authors of the war, are protagonists of the postcolonial novels, dragging the reader into the sad events of the civil wars in Africa. The main objective of this study is to demonstrate how war steals childhoods by turning children into killing machines. It is all about looking at how the writer represents the effects of war on children. Inspired by the theory of trauma and the illocutionary force propounded by Maria Pia Lara, this article examines how the war transforms the life of the child-soldier in Charly en guerre written by Florent Couao-Zotti1 and La Petite fille à la kalachnikov written by China Keitetsi2. This study concludes that children must have the opportunity to learn and overcome traumatic experiences during the war. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Introduces new data on rebel group formation in African states (1997–2015). • Indicates that most rebel groups formed in rural areas and did not emerge from local protests. • Demonstrates the need for more theory on the pathways to internal armed conflict. • Demonstrates the need for – and challenges of collecting – systematic evidence on armed group formation. Theories of internal armed conflict onset often conceptualize an eruption emerging from pre-existing, non-violent opposition movements or organizations. This paper argues that this is not the most common pathway to armed conflict in Africa. It introduces new data on rebel group formation in 47 African states (1997–2015) that offers a more complete picture than existing conflict datasets; about two-thirds of the groups in the new dataset are not named in standard conflict datasets. The strong majority of these rebel groups formed in rural areas; did not emerge from nearby protest movements or civil society organizations; and initially did not benefit from substantial material resources nor commit large-scale violence. Analyses suggest that rebel groups forming in rural parts of African states draw less often on pre-war, public, non-violent contestation than those of urban areas. The paper highlights the need for more theory on the varied pathways to internal armed conflict, and the importance of – and challenges of collecting – systematic evidence on armed group formation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we describe a project to support children from Burundi, Africa, who were orphaned by the civil war (1993 to 2003), or by poverty and the HIV/AIDS epidemic. We present our experiences of offering training in collective narrative practices to caregivers and volunteers and providing therapy for the children, and we share our plans for the future. Our hope is to inspire others to do similar work in developing countries and to inform them of some of the possible pitfalls. Although we outline many of the heartbreaking realities of life for these children, our hope is that this paper also highlights how narrative practices can be used to help such children find moments of hope in their lives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Southern Sudan's past crises have mobilised consistent flows of humanitarian assistance. Recalling the humanitarian catastrophes and international interventions of the 1990s–2000s, the war that exploded in South Sudan in 2013 has been no exception. This paper shows that the SPLM/A political elite promptly incorporated these flows of external resources into its extraverted strategies of state-building. Similar to the current situation, it did so by appropriating not only material assets but also discourses, playing the ‘fragile state’ card and raising fears of governance failure and state collapse. This paper analyses two specific aspects of international support to Southern Sudan in the 1990s–2000s: the political legitimisation of the movement through the negotiation of relief delivery, and direct support to rebel local government structures. These two aspects contributed to the creation of a state that substantially overlapped with the SPLM/A structure, thanks to the movement's capacity to capitalise on external resources, a subject worth analysing in future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines how fictional representations of civil conflict and its consequences enable contemporary African writers to capture the raft of ways in which war remains a troubling agent within the national body. This is especially relevant in the context of postcolonial societies living the traumatic aftermath of decolonization and liberation wars. Focusing on the figure of the ‘child soldier’ as an emblem of the experience of displacement as engendered by Civil war in Chimamanda Ngozi Adichie’s Half a Yellow Sun (2006) and Chris Abani’s Song for Night (2007), I argue that the figure of a child soldier qua displaced individual brings into relief a polemic and politically explosive commentary on the state of nationalism, statehood and citizenship in postcolonial, post-independence Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars debate whether climate change has a consistent effect on the likelihood of armed conflict in Africa. One major pathway by which climatic variability is hypothesized to increase conflict is by decreasing food availability. However, limitations on food access at both the local and national levels in many developing African countries force most armed groups and communities to depend on locally-produced food. These actors are therefore likely to use violence to establish control over more food resources or be stationed where more food is available, suggesting that food abundance might also be driving conflict. The present study employs novel data on wheat and maize yields in Africa measured at the very local level to empirically evaluate this hypothesis on a highly disaggregated conflict indicator. To account for the endogenous relationship between conflict and food production, average local levels of drought are used as an instrument. The findings show that, contrary to previous expectations, conflict is driven by higher yields, on average, and not by scarcity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The historical literature on statebuilding in Europe has often portrayed a positive relationship between war, state making and long-term democratisation. Similarly, a number of large-n quantitative studies have concluded that war promotes democracy – even in cases of civil war. Against this, a growing area studies literature has argued that violent conflict in developing countries is unlikely to drive either statebuilding or democratisation. However, this literature has rarely sought to systematically set out the mechanisms through which war undermines democracy. Contrasting three ‘high conflict’ cases (Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda) with two ‘low conflict’ cases (Kenya and Tanzania) in East Africa, we trace the way in which domestic conflict has undermined three key elements of the democratisation process: the quality of political institutions, the degree of elite cohesion, and the nature of civil-military relations. Taken together, we suggest that the combined effect of these three mechanisms helps to explain why Kenya and Tanzania have made significantly greater progress towards democratic consolidation than their counterparts and call for more in-depth research on the long-term legacy of conflict on democratisation in the African context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research demonstrates that refugee populations can threaten the security of receiving countries. This study, in contrast, seeks to examine the physical security challenges refugees face in host states. It utilizes a new, geographically referenced data set on subcountry refugee demographics to test the hypothesis that locations home to larger refugee populations are more likely to experience one-sided attacks by conflict actors. Results demonstrate that refugee accommodation is a significant predictor of one-sided violence in Africa. In particular, combatants commit significantly more acts of violence against civilians in locations home to larger numbers of self-settled refugees compared to other locations. These findings suggest that scholars and practitioners account for possible dangers presented by refugee flows and threats to refugees simultaneously. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article aims to disrupt the grand-narrative about African civil wars in Australian and New Zealand refugee scholarship. To that end, this article investigates the impact of the Cold War and European colonialism in political conflicts that have produced millions of refugees in Africa to illustrate the point that many of the conflicts from which African refugees fled from are partly attributable to the actions of Western powers. This study also argues that the refugee crises in Africa are partly a product of a global system that has been shaped by colonialism and white supremacy, with a key finding that the political analyses of African civil conflicts and wars in Australian and New Zealand refugee scholarship largely focuses on issues such as ethnocentrism or African dictators, without highlighting the global historical context within which African political conflicts occur. Thus, this article shows that this ahistorical reading of African political conflicts enable Australian and New Zealand scholarship on African refugees to conveniently leave out 'unthinkable facts' in the framework of Western thought about Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Humania del Sur: Revista de Estudios Latinoamericanos, Africanos y Asiáticos is the property of Humania del Sur. Estudios Latinoamericanos Africanos y Asiaticos and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)