8 results on '"Scott, Louis"'
Search Results
2. Reconstructing past biomes states using machine learning and modern pollen assemblages: A case study from Southern Africa.
- Author
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Sobol, Magdalena K., Scott, Louis, and Finkelstein, Sarah A.
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POLLEN , *FOSSIL pollen , *SHRUBLANDS , *BIOMES , *RANDOM forest algorithms , *MACHINE learning - Abstract
Fossil pollen assemblages can assist in understanding biome responses to global climate change if there is reasonable probability that they represent specific biomes or bioregions. In this paper, we introduce a novel probabilistic presentation of pollen data and biome assignment. We apply a recently developed pollen-based vegetation classification method utilizing supervised machine learning to Southern Africa modern pollen assemblages. We present an updated modern pollen dataset from Southern Africa, linking the sites to previously defined vegetation units and, ultimately, we generate probabilistic classification for fossil assemblages to reconstruct past vegetation. The modern pollen dataset (N = 211 sites) represents a long vegetation gradient, from desert to forest biomes, capturing broad climate gradients ranging from arid to subtropical. We validate two models using Random Forest algorithm to classify modern vegetation at different spatial resolutions: subcontinental (biomes) and regional (bioregions). When the modern pollen assemblages (N = 164 sites) are used to predict the vegetation types, the classification models are correct in a number of cases. In our dataset of 164 sites, the classification model correctly classifies pollen assemblages from savanna (91% correct), grassland (87%), and coastal forest (82%) vegetation types, while the best results for classification of regional vegetation are achieved for sub-humid savanna (95%), dry savanna (95%), coastal forest (91%), and wet grassland (90%). We apply the models to a fossil pollen sequence at Wonderkrater in the South African savanna, to reconstruct subcontinental and regional changes in past vegetation states over the last 60 000 years. The most probable vegetation state dominating the region since the Late Pleistocene is sub-humid savanna yet grassland occurred at times associated with high vegetation variability. Within the record, the most frequent and amplified variability in the inferred vegetation states occurred during the transitional phase between the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The machine learning approach for reconstructing past vegetation, offers a more complex and nuanced view of past vegetation dynamics and has the potential to support quantitative proxy-based techniques for palaeoclimatic reconstructions. • Expanded modern pollen dataset for Southern Africa. • Probabilistic classification for fossil assemblages to reconstruct past vegetation. • Savanna-grassland dynamics reconstructed over the last 60 000 years at Wonderkrater. • Increased oscillations in probabilities of predicted biomes during Younger Dryas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. E.M. van Zinderen Bakker (1907–2002) and the study of African Quaternary palaeoenvironments.
- Author
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Neumann, Frank H. and Scott, Louis
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RAIN forests , *AFRICANA studies - Abstract
Abstract The scientific contributions of E.M. van Zinderen Bakker (1907–2002) included the introduction of pollen analysis to Quaternary studies in South Africa. His palaeoecological theories evolved while performing palynological research in Southern Africa (the Maluti Mountains, Florisbad, Aliwal North, the Namib Desert), East Africa (Kalambo Falls, Mount Kenya, Cherangani Hills) and on the subantarctic islands (Marion and Prince Edward Islands). He was involved in the first radiocarbon dating from South Africa at Florisbad. Due to quantitative palynological studies he abandoned Wayland's (1929) Pluvial Theory that was generally accepted in the 1960s. He correlated observations of climate changes in Africa to data from marine borehole-cores and climatic fluctuations in the Northern Hemisphere. His observations led to the proposal that global temperature fluctuations are the primary cause of palaeoenvironmental changes. His studies culminated in a conceptual paleoecological model for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Initially he based the model on symmetrical contraction of climatic belts about the equator that shifted the mid-latitude westerly wind system northward to increase the area receiving winter rainfall but later adjusted this by proposing a mechanism of westerly wind system intensification. He suggested that at this time grasslands had spread over wider areas in Southern Africa and that the tropical rain forests in the equatorial region fragmented. For interglacial periods he suggested that a southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) resulted in widespread humidity in the Congo Basin while large areas of the interior of Southern Africa became arid. Some of his ideas, especially his conceptual models of Quaternary vegetation and climate, are still relevant to the explanation of recent discoveries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Pollen-interpreted palaeoenvironments associated with the Middle and Late Pleistocene peopling of Southern Africa.
- Author
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Scott, Louis and Neumann, Frank H.
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CLIMATE change - Abstract
Abstract An investigation of the vegetation and climate from the Middle Pleistocene until the end of the Late Pleistocene reveals a plethora of terrestrial and marine biological, geological and archaeological evidence for marked and complex climate cycles of change, which reflect on past circulation patterns. While acknowledging the usefulness of diverse proxies for detecting these changes, an efficient way to summarize past events is to focus on one of them, viz. fossil pollen, which, although providing scattered and incomplete records, gives fairly direct reflections of past climates and vegetation growth. The findings are structured according to six subregions and reveal distinct changes in temperature and moisture patterns, e.g. during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the Younger Dryas. The data suggest an environmental background against which cultural evolution took place, e.g., the appearance of Fauresmith, Still Bay, Howiesons Poort and Later Stone Age lithic industries. The pollen archives can be associated with global climate changes, as recorded in isotopes in marine sequences (Marine Isotope Stages or MISs). The observations show differences between regions, which can serve as a base for improving palaeo-data to eventually simulate past and future climates and to better understand the role of past global climates in relation to human and animal occupation in Southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
- Full Text
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5. The first Loranthaceae fossils from Africa.
- Author
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Grímsson, Friðgeir, Xafis, Alexandros, Neumann, Frank H., Scott, Louis, Bamford, Marion K., and Zetter, Reinhard
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BIOLOGICAL evolution ,MIOCENE Epoch ,LORANTHACEAE ,PALEONTOLOGY ,FOSSIL collection ,FORESTS & forestry - Abstract
An ongoing re-investigation of the early Miocene Saldanha Bay (South Africa) palynoflora, using combined light and scanning electron microscopy (single grain method), is revealing several pollen types new to the African fossil record. One of the elements identified is Loranthaceae pollen. These grains represent the first and only fossil record of Loranthaceae in Africa. The fossil pollen grains resemble those produced by the core Lorantheae and are comparable to recent Asian as well as some African taxa/lineages. Molecular and fossil signals indicate that Loranthaceae dispersed into Africa via Asia sometime during the Eocene. The present host range of African Loranthaceae and the composition of the palynoflora suggest that the fossil had a range of potential host taxa to parasitise during the early Miocene in the Saldanha Bay region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
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- 2018
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6. Grassland development under glacial and interglacial conditions in southern Africa: review of pollen, phytolith and isotope evidence
- Author
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Scott, Louis
- Subjects
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FOSSIL pollen , *TERTIARY paleobotany , *GRASSES - Abstract
Pollen evidence suggests that grasslands were well established in southern Africa by the Late Tertiary. Evidence for grassland composition in the region during the Quaternary includes published accounts of isotopes, grass phytoliths and pollen of both grasses and woody plants from a wide range of different environments. Isotope data were derived from speleothems (stalagmites), fossil bones, and fossil tooth enamel and plant material in fossil hyrax dung. The different data types suggest that, with perhaps the exception of the dry southern Kalahari region, temperate grassland consisted of a relatively increased C3- to C4-grass ratios during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Cold winter temperature extremes in the southern high latitude and altitude regions and a persistent winter rainfall pattern over the Cape region during the LGM probably limited the distribution of C4 grasses and canceled out any advantages gained from lowered CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. In contrast, in the tropics where marked seasonal temperature fluctuations were lacking, C4-grass growth was favored. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
- Published
- 2002
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7. Miocene fluvial systems and palynofloras at the southwestern tip of Africa: Implications for regional and global fluctuations in climate and ecosystems.
- Author
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Roberts, David L., Sciscio, Lara, Herries, Andy I.R., Scott, Louis, Bamford, Marion K., Musekiwa, Chiedza, and Tsikos, Harilaos
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FLUVIAL geomorphology , *MIOCENE Epoch , *PALYNOLOGY , *NEOGENE Period , *CLIMATE change , *PALEOECOLOGY - Abstract
Abstract: High amplitude climate fluctuations have been inferred from marine isotope data in the early Neogene, but few well documented terrestrial records exist from this era to gauge the effects of these high latitude events on continental climates and ecosystems. The extensive, three-dimensional exposures of Miocene fluvial and fluvio-lacustrine sediments in the Rondeberg clay pit near Cape Town provide a unique window on this era. Palaeomagnetic data suggests that the deposits accumulated over a period of <1Ma. The presence of meso-megathermic palynoforms (Palmae, Ilex-type, Euphorb-type, Rhamnaceae) and mesothermic (Podocarpus-type) palynofloras suggests a humid subtropical/tropical climate. However, abundant charcoal, charred in situ tree stumps, overall poor preservation of organics, evidence for upward-drying lacustrine successions and an appreciable fynbos presence, point to cyclical periods of drought. We suggest that these climate fluctuations may have been influenced by the orbital pacing seen in the marine isotope record of the earlier Miocene, pointing to a high latitude link with mid-latitude terrestrial climate patterns. Earlier studies of pollen spectra from the nearby, slightly older Noordhoek deposits show cyclical alternations from tropical to cooler climates and more recent biogeochemical work has shown dramatic coincident fluctuations in depositional temperature. These vegetation changes were previously correlated with major global events embracing the entire Neogene from the Oligo–Miocene (late Oligocene to early Miocene) to the Pliocene. We offer a different interpretation, suggesting that the deposits represent a much shorter time interval in the earlier Miocene and that these climate fluctuations may have been influenced by orbital forcing evinced in the marine isotope record. Along the northern west coast, the Arrisdrift vertebrate fossil assemblage in Early–Middle Miocene terrace deposits of the Orange River indicate a tropical climate but possibly less humid than in the south, with more open vegetation patterns. The presence of pedogenic calcretes and gypcretes in the deposits suggests periodic extremes of aridity not seen in south; the current pronounced north-aridity gradient from humid temperate to hyper-arid may have had its inception in the earlier Miocene. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]
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- 2013
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8. Downscaling Last Glacial Maximum climate over southern Africa.
- Author
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Engelbrecht, Francois A., Marean, Curtis W., Cowling, Richard M., Engelbrecht, Christien J., Neumann, Frank H., Scott, Louis, Nkoana, Ramapulana, O'Neal, David, Fisher, Erich, Shook, Eric, Franklin, Janet, Thatcher, Marcus, McGregor, John L., Van der Merwe, Jacobus, Dedekind, Zane, and Difford, Mark
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LAST Glacial Maximum , *GLACIAL climates , *DOWNSCALING (Climatology) , *ATMOSPHERIC models , *CAPES (Coasts) - Abstract
We conducted the first dynamic downscaling of Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate over southern Africa using a regional climate model. Eight coupled global climate model (CGCM) projections of LGM climate were downscaled to 8 km resolution, and compared to a downscaling of present-day climate. It is projected that temperatures were significantly lower during the LGM compared to the present-day, with annual average temperatures 4–6 °C lower along the eastern escarpment, south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and western escarpment. Southern Africa is projected to have been generally wetter during the LGM, with a significant extension in the northward reach of frontal rainfall. The largest rainfall increases are projected for the south-north aligned Cape Fold Mountains and the western escarpment of South Africa, but with rainfall decreases projected for the Cape south coast region. Rainfall seasonality is projected to have been significantly different from that of the present-day, with an all-year rainfall region plausibly extending as far north and east as the present-day Free State and Gauteng provinces of South Africa. Evaluations of the downscalings against key published proxy records for the LGM from southern Africa suggest good agreement and few deviations. • This pioneering study is the first to use a dynamic regional climate model to downscale LGM climate over southern Africa. • It provides a new source of information towards the reconstruction of LGM climate over southern Africa. • The simulations are indicative of a northward reach of frontal rainfall, confirming the interpretation of the proxy record. • The simulations provide an explanation for the observed zonal gradient in plant diversity within the GCFR in South Africa. • If suitably bias-corrected, the simulations may be used to reconstruct and interpret the palaeoscape of southern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2019
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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