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Yellow fever is transmitted by mosquitoes among human and non-human primates. In the last decades, infections are occurring in areas that had been free from yellow fever for decades, probably as a consequence of the rapid spread of mosquito vectors, and of the virus evolutionary dynamic in which non-human primates are involved. This research is a pathogeographic assessment of where enzootic cycles, based on primate assemblages, could be amplifying the risk of yellow fever infections, in the context of spatial changes shown by the disease since the late 20th century. In South America, the most relevant spread of disease cases affects parts of the Amazon basin and a wide area of southern Brazil, where forest fragmentation could be activating enzootic cycles next to urban areas. In Africa, yellow fever transmission is apparently spreading from the west of the continent, and primates could be contributing to this in savannas around rainforests. Our results are useful for identifying new areas that should be prioritised for vaccination, and suggest the need of deep yellow fever surveillance in primates of South America and Africa. Models based on primates and disease vectors indicate a risk of zoonotic and anthroponotic yellow fever expansion in South America and Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

West Nile virus (WNV) is an emergent arthropodborne virus that is transmitted from bird to bird by mosquitoes. Spillover events occur when infected mosquitoes bite mammals. We created a geopositioned database of WNV presence in Africa and considered reports of the virus in all animal components: reservoirs, vectors, and nonhuman dead-end hosts. We built various biogeographic models to determine which drivers explain the distribution of WNV throughout Africa. Wetlands of international importance for birds accounted for the detection of WNV in all animal components, whereas human-related drivers played a key role in the epizootic cases. We combined these models to obtain an integrative and large-scale perspective of the areas at risk for WNV spillover. Understanding which areas pose the highest risk would enable us to address the management of this spreading disease and to comprehend the translocation of WNV outside Africa through avian migration routes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The boundaries of species distributions are often shaped by natural barriers, such as mountains and rivers, but species distribution models usually fail to include these constraints. We tested several approaches that include barriers as explanatory variables in species distribution models. Location: Africa and South America. Time period: Current. Major taxa studied: Primates. Methods: We modelled the ranges of pairs of species separated by a river, taking into account three explanatory components: the environment (ecosystems, topohydrography, climate and human pressure), the spatial structure shaped by history and population dynamics (using a trend‐surface approach) and rivers as naturals barriers to dispersal (using a binary cis–trans variable that describes both sides of the river). To assess how the addition of a spatial structure and the barrier could improve distribution models, we used a nested approach by comparing models based on: (a) the environment; (b) the environment and the spatial structure; and (c) the environment, the spatial structure and the river. These models were constructed using favourability functions. Results: There was a decreased occurrence of high‐favourability values on the opposite side of the rivers in models that included the spatial structure of distributions compared with models based on the environment alone. This decrease was more marked when the description of the spatial structure was made more flexible. However, model performance was significantly improved by the inclusion of cis–trans variables that identified areas on the opposite side as totally unfavourable. Main conclusions: The performance of distribution models can be improved by the use of approaches that describe barriers. Although adding the location of geographical units in relationship to a river appears to be the most accurate way to define the presence of a barrier, defining this variable may be challenging. A suitable alternative is to analyse the spatial structure of distributions using a flexible approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the protected African rainforest mammals and climate change.

We studied the geographic ranges of the 23 African hornbill species using countries as distribution units, to search for either groups of similar distributions (chorotypes) or gradual replacement of species as two different types of distribution patterns. We used a probabilistic classification method to distinguish between these two types of biogeographic patterns. Then we analysed the influence of climate, area, surface covered by different types of habitat, and human disturbance in each country, as well as biotic features of the species involving the habitat preference, feeding requirements and habits, body size, sexual dimorphism, and metabolic parameters, on the biogeographic patterns detected. We found that 20 species were significantly classified into three chorotypes. The western-central chorotype comprises nine species characterised by their preference for forest habitat and their Iow sexual body mass dimorphism. These species occur in 25 countries, characterised by their Iow range of temperatures. The eastern chorotype includes three species characterised by their preference for feeding on the ground and greater dimorphism in mass between the sexes. Seven countries, characterised by their high values of savanna and grassland surface area, constitute the geographic element of this chorotype. The southern chorotype involves the distribution of eight species characterised by their preference for montane and coastal forests or woodlands. Eighteen countries fall into this chorotype and are characterised by their Iow values of temperature in the coldest month and greater surface area of desert scrub and desert forest. The other three species replace each other mainly following a gradual pattern within the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent modification of species distribution ranges in response to a warmer climate has constituted a major and generalized biogeographic change. The main driver of the shift in distribution is the disequilibrium of the species ranges with their climatic favourability. Most species distribution modelling approaches assume equilibrium of the distribution with the environment, which hinders their applicability to the analysis of this change. Using fuzzy set theory we assessed the response to climate change of a historically African species, the Atlas Long-legged Buzzard. With this approach we were able to quantify that the Buzzard's distribution is in a latitudinal disequilibrium of the species distribution with the current climate of 4 km, which is driving the species range northwards at a speed of around 1.3 km/year, i.e., it takes 3 years for the species to occupy new climatically favourable areas. This speed is expected to decelerate to 0.5 km/year in 2060-2080.