1. Aspects of climate change prediction relevant to crop productivity.
- Author
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Huntingford C, Lambert FH, Gash JH, Taylor CM, and Challinor AJ
- Subjects
- Africa, Northern, Africa, Western, Crops, Agricultural standards, Crops, Agricultural supply & distribution, Forecasting, Humans, Predictive Value of Tests, Rain, Temperature, Climate, Crops, Agricultural growth & development, Food Supply, Models, Biological, Models, Theoretical
- Abstract
Projected changes in surface climate are reviewed at a range of temporal scales, with an emphasis on tropical northern Africa--a region considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Noting the key aspects of 'weather' affecting crop yield, we then consider relevant and projected change using output from a range of state of the art global climate models (GCMs), and for different future emission scenarios. The outputs from the models reveal significant inter-model variation in the change expected by the end of the twenty-first century for even the lowest IPCC emission scenario. We provide a set of recommendations on future model diagnostics, configurations and ease of use to close further the gap between GCMs and smaller-scale crop models. This has the potential to empower countries to make their own assessments of vulnerability to climate change induced periods of food scarcity.
- Published
- 2005
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