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Our longitudinal study of plague dynamics was conducted in north-central New Mexico to identify which species in the community were infected with plague, to determine the spatial and temporal patterns of the dynamics of plague epizootics, and to describe the dynamics of Yersinia pestis infection within individual hosts. A total of 3156 fleas collected from 535 small mammals of 8 species were tested for Y. pestis DNA. Nine fleas collected from six southern plains woodrats (Neotoma micropus) and from one rock squirrel (Otospermophilus variegatus) were positive for the pla gene of Y. pestis. None of 127 fleas collected from 17 woodrat nests was positive. Hemagglutinating antibodies to the Y. pestis-specific F1 antigen were detected in 11 rodents of 6 species. All parts of the investigated area were subjected to local disappearance of woodrats. Despite the active die-offs, some woodrats always were present within the relatively limited endemic territory and apparently were never exposed to plague. Our observations suggest that small-scale die-offs in woodrats can support maintenance of plague in the active U.S. Southwestern focus.

One human plague case was reported in Oregon in September 2010 and another in New Mexico in May 2011. Misidentification of Yersinia pestis by automated identification systems contributed to delayed diagnoses for both cases.

We describe an analytic approach to provide fine-scale discrimination among multiple infection source hypotheses. This approach uses mutation-rate data for rapidly evolving multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat loci in probabilistic models to identify the most likely source. We illustrate the utility of this approach using data from a North American human plague investigation.

Yersinia pestis, the causative agent of plague, has been detected in fleas and mammals throughout the western United States. This highly virulent infection is rare in humans, surveillance of the disease is expensive, and it often was assumed that risk of exposure to Y. pestis is high in most of the western United States. For these reasons, some local health departments in these plague-affected regions have hesitated to undertake surveillance and other prevention activities. To aid in targeting limited public health resources, we created a fine-resolution human plague risk map for New Mexico, the state reporting more than half the human cases in the United States. Our GIS-based model included three landscape features-a nonlinear relationship with elevation, distance to water, and distance to the ecotone between Rocky Mountain/Great Basin open and closed coniferous woodlands-and yielded an overall accuracy of approximately 80%. The model classified 17.25% of the state as posing significant risk of exposure to humans on privately or tribally owned land, which suggests that resource requirements for regular surveillance and control of plague could be effectively focused on < 20% of the state.

Plague is a rare but highly virulent flea-borne zoonotic disease caused by the Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis Yersin. Identifying areas at high risk of human exposure to the etiological agent of plague could provide a useful tool for targeting limited public health resources and reduce the likelihood of misdiagnosis by raising awareness of the disease. We created logistic regression models to identify landscape features associated with areas where humans have acquired plague from 1957 to 2004 in the four-corners region of the United States (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah), and we extrapolated those models within a geographical information system to predict where plague cases are likely to occur within the southwestern United States disease focus. The probability of an area being classified as high-risk plague habitat increased with elevation up to approximately 2300 m and declined as elevation increased thereafter, and declined with distance from key habitat types (e.g., southern Rocky Mountain piñon--juniper [Pinus edulis Engelm. and Juniperus spp.], Colorado plateau piñon--juniper woodland, Rocky Mountain ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P.& C. Lawson var. scopulorum), and southern Rocky Mountain juniper woodland and savanna). The overall accuracy of the model was >82%. Our most conservative model predicted that 14.4% of the four-corners region represented a high risk of peridomestic exposure to Y. pestis.

Exposure to cats infected with Yersinia pestis is a recently recognized risk for human plague in the US. Twenty-three cases of cat-associated human plague (5 of which were fatal) occurred in 8 western states from 1977 through 1998, which represent 7.7% of the total 297 cases reported in that period. Bites, scratches, or other contact with infectious materials while handling infected cats resulted in 17 cases of bubonic plague, 1 case of primary septicemic plague, and 5 cases of primary pneumonic plague. The 5 fatal cases were associated with misdiagnosis or delays in seeking treatment, which resulted in overwhelming infection and various manifestations of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome. Unlike infections acquired by flea bites, the occurrence of cat-associated human plague did not increase significantly during summer months. Plague epizootics in rodents also were observed less frequently at exposure sites for cases of cat-associated human plague than at exposure sites for other cases. The risk of cat-associated human plague is likely to increase as residential development continues in areas where plague foci exist in the western US. Enhanced awareness is needed for prompt diagnosis and treatment.

Plague occurs episodically in many parts of the world, and some outbreaks appear to be related to increased abundance of rodents and other mammals that serve as hosts for vector fleas. Climate dynamics may influence the abundance of both fleas and mammals, thereby having an indirect effect on human plague incidence. An understanding of the relationship between climate and plague could be useful in predicting periods of increased risk of plague transmission. In this study, we used correlation analyses of 215 human cases of plague in relation to precipitation records from 1948 to 1996 in areas of New Mexico with history of human plague cases (38 cities, towns, and villages). We conducted analyses using 3 spatial scales: global (El Niño-Southern Oscillation Indices [SOI]); regional (pooled state-wide precipitation averages); and local (precipitation data from weather stations near plague case sites). We found that human plague cases in New Mexico occurred more frequently following winter-spring periods (October to May) with above-average precipitation (mean plague years = 113% of normal rain/ snowfall), resulting in 60% more cases of plague in humans following wet versus dry winter-spring periods. However, we obtained significant results at local level only; regional state-wide precipitation averages and SOI values exhibited no significant correlations to incidence of human plague cases. These results are consistent with our hypothesis of a trophic cascade in which increased winter-spring precipitation enhances small mammal food resource productivity (plants and insects), leading to an increase in the abundance of plague hosts. In addition, moister climate conditions may act to promote flea survival and reproduction, also enhancing plague transmission. Finally, the result that the number of human plague cases in New Mexico was positively associated with higher than normal winter-spring precipitation at a local scale can be used by physicians and public health personnel to identify and predict periods of increased risk of plague transmission to humans.

Socioeconomic indicators associated with temporal changes in the distribution of human plague cases in New Mexico were investigated for 1976–2007. In the 1980s, cases were more likely in census block groups with poor housing conditions, but by the 2000s, cases were associated with affluent areas concentrated in the Santa Fe–Albuquerque region.

We describe an analytic approach to provide fine-scale discrimination among multiple infection source hypotheses. This approach uses mutation-rate data for rapidly evolving multiple locus variable-number tandem repeat loci in probabilistic models to identify the most likely source. We illustrate the utility of this approach using data from a North American human plague investigation.

The article discusses some cases of human plague in the U.S. in 2006. Plague is caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis. A total of 13 human plague cases have been reported in New Mexico, Colorado, California and Texas during the year. One case involved a 39-year-old man from Travis County, Texas who was hospitalized due to high fever, delirium, nausea and vomiting. Blood cultures revealed Yersinia pestis. Antibiotics were given to the patient, including gentamicin, doxycycline and ciprofloxacin, and he recovered.

Summary: In November 2002, a couple from New Mexico traveled to New York where both had fever and unilateral inguinal adenopathy. The husband was in septic shock when he sought medical care and was admitted to an intensive care unit, where he developed ischemic necrosis of his feet which later required bilateral amputation. Yersinia pestis was grown from his blood. Immunohistochemical assays using anti–Y pestis antibodies demonstrated multiple bacteria and granular antigens in and around vessels of the ischemic amputation tissues obtained 20 days after initiation of antibiotics; however, no evidence of Y pestis was present in viable tissues. Immunohistochemical evidence of Y pestis inside vessels of gangrenous feet in this patient underscores the importance of adequate excision of necrotic or partially necrotic tissues because antibiotics cannot be effectively delivered to necrotic and poorly perfused tissues. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]