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Predmet i problem ovog rada ogleda se u usporedbi uspješnosti poslovanja vinarija s područja Republike Hrvatske primjenom višekriterijalne analize. Odnosno, pomoću PROMETHEE metode rangirat će se vinarije s obzirom na uspješnost poslovanja istih. Obuhvaćene su vinarije iz raznih dijelova Hrvatske, pa su tako redom obuhvaćene vinarije iz slijedećih županija: Osječko – baranjske, Požeško – slavonske županije, Grada Zagreba, Varaždinske županije, Međimurske županije, Istarske županije, Šibensko – kninske županije te Splitsko – dalmatinske županije. Kao ulazne varijable (kriteriji) za metodu višekriterijalnog odlučivanja koristit će se financijski pokazatelji dobiveni iz dostupnih financijskih izvještaja za 2017. godinu. Svrha ovog rada jest utvrditi može li se rangiranje vinarija prema uspješnosti poslovanja uspješno provesti PROMETHEE metodom. Provedenom analizom podataka utvrđeno je kako se navedena istraživačka hipoteza potvrđuje, odnosno PROMETHEE metodom se može uspješno rangirati vinarije prema uspješnosti poslovanja istih. The subject and the problem of this paper is reflected in the comparison of the performance of wineries from the territory of the Republic of Croatia using multicriteria analysis. Respectively, using the PROMETHEE method, wineries will be ranked, in terms of their performance. Wineries from different parts of Croatia are included, and included wineries are from following tribal states: Osječko – baranjska, Požeško – slavonska, , Varaždinska, Međimurska, Istarska, Šibensko – kninska, Splitsko – dalmatinska tribal state and city of Zagreb. The input variable (criteria) for the multicriteria decision-making method will be the financial ratios obtained from the available financial statements for year 2017. The purpose of this paper was to determine whether the ranking of wineries by business performance can be successfully carried out by the "PROMETHEE" method. The analysis of the data revealed that the stated research hypothesis is confirmed. Respectively, he PROMETHEE method can successfully rank the wineries according to their business performance.

U vinogradarstvu i vinarstvu Republike Hrvatske sabrani su tradicija, žrtva i nada, jedinstvenost terroira i sortimenta. Osim ove gotovo „romantične“ slike, vinogradari i vinari izloženi su svakodnevnom dokazivanju na tržištu. Upravljanje rizicima važan je dio poslovnog uspjeha i potrebno im je posvetiti važnost i sagledati ih u cjelini. Ciljevi istraživanja bili su analizirati rizik u poslovanju, rangirati vinarije prema stupnju rizika i dati preporuke instrumenata upravljanja rizikom te ustanoviti učinkovitost strateškog upravljanja rizikom primjenom stohastičkih simulacija. U radu su korištene metode analize rizika, strateškog upravljanja, anketnog ispitivanja, regresijska, korelacijska i financijska analiza i stohastičke simulacije. Rezultati su pokazali da anketirane vinarije u Hrvatskoj prepoznaju rizike i strategije, ali nedovoljno primjenjuju strategije upravljanja rizicima. Ispitanici smatraju važnim primjenjivati strategije za upravljanje rizicima na gospodarstvu (poput pridržavanja tehnologije i agrotehničkih rokova, prodaje putem više različitih kanala, …) i izvan gospodarstva (poput korištenja programa potpore) te strategije prijenosa rizika (osiguranje,...). S druge strane, ispitanici ponekad i često primjenjuju strategije izvan gospodarstva i ponekad primjenjuju strategije za upravljanje rizicima na gospodarstvu. Strategije prijenosa rizika rijetko se primjenjuju u anketiranim vinarijama u Hrvatskoj. Financijski pokazatelji sugeriraju da se većina vinarija, u promatranom petogodišnjem razdoblju, nalazi u teškoj situaciji u svom poslovanju što se tiče likvidnosti, zaduženosti i rizika od stečaja. Prema ukupnoj prosječnoj vrijednosti, 47 poslovnih subjekata od ukupno 95 poslovalo je s dobitkom. Altman A-Z score kao pokazatelj rizika od stečaja primijenjen je za rangiranje vinarija prema stupnju rizika. Prema standardnoj devijaciji Altmanov A-Z-score rangirano je 95 vinarija u Hrvatskoj. Rezultati su pokazali veliki broj visoko rizičnih vinarija koje su imale prosječnu srednju vrijednost score-a manju od 1,23, a kojima prijeti vrlo veliki, 95%-tni rizik od stečaja. Od ukupno 95 analiziranih vinarija, 75 poslovnih subjekta visoko su rizične vinarije. Rezultati jednostavne linearne regresije pokazali su da je najrizičnija varijabla materijalni trošak koji utječe na ukupan prihod. Osim materijalnih troškova i troškovi osoblja imaju utjecaj na ukupan prihod. Rezultati modela strateškog upravljanja rizikom odnosno strategije modernizacije i rasta kroz nova ulaganja rezultirali su povećanjem stope rasta, Altman A-Z score-a, neto i bruto dobiti, dobiti prije kamata i poreza, povrata na imovinu, povrata na kapital za 7%, 23,74%, 59%, 41,35%, 36,06% i 22,56%. Istraživanjem je potvrđeno da su vinarije u Hrvatskoj izložene riziku i da primjena strateškog upravljanja rizikom doprinosi rastu i profitabilnosti vinarija. Viticulture and Enology as part of agriculture of the Republic of Croatia encompasses tradition, hard work, sacrifice, persistence and hope of vine and wine growers, uniqueness of terroir and vine varieties, and potential of wine placement through tourism. By EU accession, Croatian wine makers have entered the market of half a billion consumers. These are consumers of high purchasing power and, to a large extent, experts in the culture of consuming wine. However, there are threats that emerge from the inner weaknesses of the wineries, in the management, organization and financing of this threat from the environment, first of all competition. Therefore, one of the necessary preconditions of business success is strategic thinking and risk management. All of this has led us to research business subjects in the wine industry, the risks faced by winemakers, and the strategies they apply to successfully manage their business. The objectives of the research were to analyze the risk in the winery business, to rank wineries according to the degree of risk and to give recommendations to risk management instruments and to identify the effectiveness of strategic risk management using stochastic simulations. The systematic risk management scenarios are developed in the model example. The paper deals with methods of risk analysis, strategic management, questionnaire testing, regression, correlation and financial analysis and stochastic simulations. The research material consists of a primary survey (SWOT analysis of the state of the winery sector in the Republic of Croatia and a survey on risk management perceptions in Croatian wineries "Strategic Risk Management of Wineries in Croatia") and secondary data sources. The risk management has been in the focus of research for many years and there are numerous risk management papers that observe it from different aspects, such as sources of risk and their impact on business, business decision making, risk management strategies, and farmers' preferences to risk. In the segment of strategic management, the authors deal specifically with the issue of competitiveness and the strategies of vertical integration of companies. Every business is exposed to risks. Agricultural production is additionally burdened with the risks of natural disasters, disease and pests and environmental pollution. This survey evaluated the state of the sector and the conditions of the winery business, analyzed the risks faced by winemakers and the risk management they apply. Based on the existing state of affairs and the calculation of key business indicators, a model was proposed with improvements for risk management. The results of the research have shown that the environment in which wineries operate in Croatia is very uncertain. On the other hand, providing quality and timely information to decision makers in executive and business entities can have a positive impact on the state of the vineyard sector in the Republic of Croatia. Wineries in Croatia today act as part of the global market. The available data show a trend of decreasing vineyards (-3.04% in 2015/2005) and wine production (-1.29% in 2015/2005) in a world that has not bypassed wineries in Croatia. In 2015, compared to 2005, vineyards in Croatia decreased by -13.76%, grape production by -14.80% and wine production by -20.51%. In the period from 2005 to 2015, wineries in the Republic of Croatia were exposed to significant temptations in their business: from climatic conditions, "poor" vine harvest (2015), the impact of the economic crisis (2008 to 2017), high prices (in 2009 the interest rate on loans in HRK without a currency clause of 9.69%), growth of average costs of raw materials consumption by unit of measure of all energy sources in the production of beverages (27.31% on average), changes in wine prices and the procedure of trade wine, the accession of the Republic of Croatia to the European Union and import of wine. The importance of tourism in product placement (mean value 4.20), top position (mean value 4.12) and environmental conditions in grape and wine production (average 4.00) are evidenced by the experts in viticulture and winemaking. For sector weaknesses, surface saturation, wine growers' lack of organization and lack of marketing (mean value 4.20) are highlighted. New technologies (mean 2.00) and all forms of tourism (agrotourism, wine tourism, tourism demand) (mean 2.04) represent the potential for wineries in Croatia, affected by the “black market” risk and the lack of inspection (average 2.16) and competition (wines of the same quality, but lower prices) (mean value 2.20). In identifying risks and strategies for wineries in Croatia, respondents perceive the relatively moderate risks they face. As risk consequences, 39.47% of respondents believe that natural disasters can have significant consequences for the company's business, 44.74% of respondents believe that biology and the environment can have significant consequences, 47.37% of respondents believe the market can have a moderate impact, 50.00% of respondents believe that management and processes have a moderate impact, while for political influence (52.63%), they consider it to have significant business implications. Respondents consider it important to apply strategies for managing the risks “on farm” (such as adhering to technology and agrotechnical deadlines, sales through multiple channels, ...) and “off farm” (such as the use of support programs) and risk transfer strategies (insurance, ...). Respondents apply “off farm” strategies such as national and EU programs, production diversification and apply “on farm” strategies for managing the risks such as adhering to technology and agrotechnical terms, using their own land, selling products through multiple channels, continuous learning and information, human resources, procurement systems and logistics. Risk transfer strategies (insurance, sales contracts, contract with subcontractors, production for a known customer) are rarely applied in surveyed wineries in Croatia. Such thinking is expected, given the price of applying certain strategies (insurance prices, investments required in technology, education, ...). The financial analysis of the winery business showed that from 2011 to 2015 the number of business entities increased by 20% (from 172 in 2011 to 207 business entities in 2015), but 95 business entities had available data in the observed period. According to the size of business entities, the largest number of entities is small entities (91), and by type of ownership, 76 business entities were privately owned. The results of the analysis have shown that small businesses are more liquid, less dependent in comparison to large or medium-sized businesses. In medium-sized enterprises, low profitability was noticed (return on assets ranged from -0.24 in 2011 to -0.15 in 2015, return on equity ranges from 0.15 in 2011 to 0.01 in 2015), and large and small companies are facing a very high risk of bankruptcy. According to legal form, joint stock companies have the lowest average values of current liquidity coefficients, rapid liquidity, financial stability, highest indebtedness coefficient and the lowest return on equity. The joint stock companies had a mean value of Altman A-Z score of -1.99, while agricultural cooperatives had a mean value of A-Z score of 2.07. According to Altman's A-Z-score, business entities are facing a very high risk, 95% risk of bankruptcy (an average of less than 1.23). According to the characteristics of business entities, the risk of bankruptcy is very high in 43 companies registered as a limited liability company, in 59 small enterprises, in 54 private ownership companies, in 56 companies with 100% domestic capital, in 26 enterprises with less than 10 employees and 38 companies in the area of coastal Croatia. One business entity, which is registered as limited company, belongs to small enterprises, which is privately owned since its inception, with a 100% share of domestic capital, excluding employees and from the coastal part of Republic of Croatia, was not involved in the processing. The results of multiple regression models on the winery analysis (n = 95) of total revenue (dependent variables) and number of employees, material costs, staff costs (independent variables) showed that dummy variables "county" and "domestic capital" are not statistically significant. Variables “legal status” and “winery size” are statistically significant in the model. The regression of total revenue (dependent variable) and one independent variable and one dummy variable has shown that the “business status” and “size” are statistically significant variables. Dummy variables “counties” and “domestic capital” have not shown statistically significant. The results of simple linear regression have shown that material costs (standardized coefficient 0.94) have the greatest relative impact on total revenue. According to the standard deviation, Altman's A-Z-score ranked 95 wineries in Croatia. For the period from 2011 to 2015, there were 8 business entities facing a very low risk of bankruptcy, 10 medium-risk wineries and 75 high-risk wineries, which confirms the difference between wineries in terms of the degree of financial risk. Two business entities are not involved in the processing. The simulation of the model “Vinarija” has applied risk management strategies, a costcutting flexibility strategy that stabilizes the cost of wine-making, a market expansion strategy that assumes increased sales, i.e. greater capacity utilization, a sales stability strategy that is based on the assumption that the influence of the price of wine or its stabilization on the winery is coming the more favorable financial position and the strategy of modernization and growth through new investments starts from the assumption of new wage borrowing. The model is a stochastic simulation model created in @Risk software (Excel supplement) with Monte Carlo simulation and 5000 iterations. Stochastic input parameters are the sales price of wine, the cost of wine production (cost price) and winery capacity (% capacity utilization). The results of the model or strategy of modernization and growth through new investments resulted in an increase in the growth rate, Altman A-Z score, net and gross profit, profit before interest and tax, return on assets, return on equity by 7%, 23.74%, 59 %, 41.35%, 36.06%, and 22.56%. The research has confirmed that wineries in Croatia are exposed to risk and that the application of strategic risk management contributes to the growth and profitability of wineries.

Tijekom posljednjeg desetljeća brojne su studije o turizmu vinskih cesta (wine tourism) doprinijele spoznajama na području doživljaja vinarija, a uključivale su podatke o zadovoljstvu posjetitelja, njihovoj percepciji doživljaja vina ili potencijalne modele ponašanja nakon kupovine vina. Medutim, identificiranje konkretnih grupa posjetitelja koje bi mogle imati veći tržišni potencijal ili potencijalnih razlika između posjetitelja u vidu roda, starosti ili podrijetla povezanih s njihovim ponašanjem u vinariji kritična su pitanja kojima se posvećuje manja pozornost u istraživanju turizma vinskih cesta. Ova studija istražuje muške i ženske posjetitelje vinarija na Novom Zelandu te razlike među ovim dvjema grupama u nekoliko područja njihovog doživljaja vinarija, uključujući njihovu potrošnju u vinarijama, potrošnju vina i cjelokupno zadovoljstvo. Rezultati imaju nekoliko implikacija na vinarije otvorene za javnost, ne samo s obzirom na njihovu potencijainu praktičnu primjenu u poslovanju vinarija, nego i stoga što ukazuju na činjenicu kako bi turoperatori trebali koristiti različite strategije u svojim nastojanjima da tirn dvjema grupama posjetitelja pruže što bolju uslugu., In the last decade numerous wine tourism studies have contributed knowledge in areas of the winery experience that included visitors' satisfaction, their perceptions about their wine experience, or potential post-winery visit purchasing patterns. However, identifying particular visitor groups that may have more commercial potential, or whether differences exist among visitors in terms of gender, age, or origin, vis-à-vis their behaviour at the winery, are some critical issues that have received less attention in wine tourism research. The present study investigates male and female winery visitots in New Zealand and differences between these two groups in several areas of their winery experience, including their winery expenditures, wine consumption, and overall satisfaction. The Undings have several implications for wineries open to the public, not only in tcrtns of their potential practical applicability for winery businesses, but also as they demonstrate that different strategies might be needed by operators in their efforts to better provide for these two visitor groups.