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Wildfires emit smoke particles and gaseous pollutants that greatly aggravate air quality and cause adverse health impacts in the western US (WUS). This study evaluates how wildfire impacts on air pollutants and air toxics evolve from the present climate to the future climate under a high anthropogenic emission scenario at regional and city scales. Through employing multiple climate and chemical transport models, small changes in domain-averaged air pollutant concentrations by wildfires are simulated over WUS. However, such changes significantly increase future city-scale pollutant concentrations by up to 53 ppb for benzene, 158 ppb for formaldehyde, 655 μg/m 3 for fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), and 102 ppb for ozone, whereas that for the present climate are 104 ppb for benzene, 332 ppb for formaldehyde, 1,378 μg/m 3 for PM 2.5 , and 140 ppb for ozone. Despite wildfires induce smaller changes in the future, the wildfire contribution ratios can increase by more than tenfold compared to the present climate, indicating wildfires become a more critical contributor to future air pollution in WUS. In addition, additional 6 exceedance days/year for formaldehyde and additional 3 exceedance days/year for ozone suggest increasing health impacts by wildfires in the future., (Copyright © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Wildfires can significantly impact air quality and human health. However, little is known about how different fuel bed components contribute to these impacts. This study investigates the air quality impacts of duff and peat consumption during wildfires in the southeastern United States, with a focus on the differing contributions of fine particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in size (PM 2.5) and ozone (O 3) to air quality episodes associated with the four largest wildfire events in the region during this century. The emissions of duff burning were estimated based on a field measurement of a 2016 southern Appalachian fire. The emissions from the burning of other fuels were obtained from the Fire INventory from NCAR (FINN). The air quality impacts were simulated using a three-dimensional regional air quality model. The results show the duff burning emitted PM 2.5 comparable to the burning of the above-ground fuels. The simulated surface PM 2.5 concentrations due to duff burning increased by 61.3 % locally over a region approximately 300 km within the fire site and by 21.3 % and 29.7 % in remote metro Atlanta and Charlotte during the 2016 southern Appalachian fires and by 131.9 % locally and by 17.7 % and 24.8 % in remote metro Orlando and Miami during the 2007 Okefenokee Fire. However, the simulated ozone impacts from the duff burning were negligible due to the small duff emission factors of ozone precursors such as NO x. This study suggests the need to improve the modeling of PM 2.5 and the air quality, human health, and climate impacts of wildfires in moist ecosystems by including duff burning in global fire emission inventories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous devastating air pollution events from wildfire smoke occurred in this century in the western USA, leading to severe environmental consequences. This study projects future fire emissions in this region under climate change with a focus on comparing the relative contributions from future changes in burned area, fuel loading and fuel moisture. The three properties were projected using an empirical fire model, a dynamical global vegetation model and meteorological conditions respectively. The regional climate change scenarios for the western USA were obtained by dynamical downscaling of global climate projections. The results show overall increasing wildfires and fuel loading and decreasing fuel moisture. As a result, fire emissions are projected to increase by ~50% from 2001–2010 to 2050–2059. The changes in wildfires and fuel loading contribute nearly 75% and 25% of the total fire emission increase, respectively, but the contribution from fuel moisture change is minimal. The findings suggest that the air pollution events caused by wildfire smoke could become much more serious in the western USA by the middle of this century, and that it would be essential to take the future changes in fuel conditions into account to improve the accuracy of fire emission projections. Devastating air pollution events from wildfire smoke have increased dramatically in the western United States. Here we indicate that this situation would become worse in the future due to climate change. Increasing fuel amount for burning is an important contributor to increasing fire emissions, in addition to more wildfires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fire plume height (smoke injection height) is an important parameter for calculating the transport and lifetime of smoke particles, which can significantly affect regional and global air quality and atmospheric radiation budget. To develop an observation‐based global fire plume‐rise data set, a modified one‐dimensional plume‐rise model was used with observation‐based fire size and Maximum Fire Radiative Power (MFRP) data, which are derived from satellite fire hotspot measurements. The resulting data set captured well the observed plume height distribution derived from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) measurements. The fraction of fire plumes penetrating above the boundary layer is relatively low at 20% at the time of MISR observation (10:30 am LT) but increases to an average of ∼55% in the late afternoon, implying that the MISR observation data sampled in late morning underestimate the average daytime fire plume heights and plume mixing into the free troposphere. Therefore, adjustments are required through dynamic modeling or parameterization of fire plume height as a function of meteorological and fire conditions when the MISR data set is applied in climate model simulations. We conducted sensitivity simulations using the Community Atmospheric Models version 5 (CAM5). Model results show that the incorporation of fire plume rise in the model tends to significantly increase fire aerosol impacted regions. We applied the offline plume‐rise data to develop an online fire plume height parameterization, allowing for simulating the feedbacks of climate/weather on fire plume rise in climate models. Plain Language Summary: The wildfire smoke injection height is important to study the lifetime and transport capacity of smoke particles. This study developed a long‐term global wildfire injection height data set, which has been well evaluated and applied to global climate model simulation. For fully coupled atmosphere‐land simulation purposes, implementation has been developed for the climate model to generate injection height at each time step. The fire plume height (smoke injection height) is important for calculating the transport and lifetime of smoke particles. A modified one‐dimensional plume‐rise model was used with observation‐based fire size and Maximum Fire Radiative Power (MFRP) data. The resulting data set captured well the observed plume height distribution. The simulated plume penetration rate suggests higher fire emission mixed in the free troposphere in the late afternoon. We conducted sensitivity simulations using the Community Atmospheric Models version 5 (CAM5). In downwind regions, model results show that the incorporation of fire plume rise tends to increase fire aerosol transport. Additionally, we develop an online fire plume height parameterization, allowing for simulating the feedbacks of climate/weather on fire plume rise in climate models. Key Points: An observation‐based fire plume height data set is developed for 2002–2010. It is in general agreement with global Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiomete observationsLate morning satellite observations tend to underestimate the fraction of fire plumes reaching the free troposphere during the dayModeling using online fire plume‐rise parameterizations based on this data set shows extensive free‐tropospheric transport of fire aerosols [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is an urgent need for next-generation smoke research and forecasting (SRF) systems to meet the challenges of the growing air quality, health and safety concerns associated with wildland fire emissions. This review paper presents simulations and experiments of hypothetical prescribed burns with a suite of selected fire behaviour and smoke models and identifies major issues for model improvement and the most critical observational needs. The results are used to understand the new and improved capability required for the next-generation SRF systems and to support the design of the Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) and other field campaigns. The next-generation SRF systems should have more coupling of fire, smoke and atmospheric processes. The development of the coupling capability requires comprehensive and spatially and temporally integrated measurements across the various disciplines to characterise flame and energy structure (e.g. individual cells, vertical heat profile and the height of well-mixing flaming gases), smoke structure (vertical distributions and multiple subplumes), ambient air processes (smoke eddy, entrainment and radiative effects of smoke aerosols) and fire emissions (for different fuel types and combustion conditions from flaming to residual smouldering), as well as night-time processes (smoke drainage and super-fog formation). Fire behaviour and smoke models provide smoke information for managers to assess fire impacts and develop mitigation plans. This review paper describes the modelling efforts performed to understand modelling issues and data needs. The results are used to support the design of field campaigns such as the Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE), which conduct comprehensive measurements of fuels, fire behaviour, emission, smoke and weather, and the development of the next-generation smoke research and forecasting systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Major atmospheric circulation patterns for wildfires have been identified in regions with boreal, Mediterranean, and semiarid climates. This study investigates such patterns in the monsoon regions of China, where the climate is controlled by multiple atmospheric systems and wildfires have large spatial variability. We identified three patterns. The first pattern was characterized by a high‐pressure ridge in northeast China and contributed to wildfires by creating warmer and drier conditions. The second, meridional pattern contributed to wildfires in north, central, and south China by increasing dry air transport. The third, zonal pattern had a weaker westerly ridge and trough and contributed to wildfires in southwest China by decreasing the transport from westerly systems. We showed that a circulation index defined as the pressure difference between the positive and negative centers of fire‐pressure correlations had higher monthly fire prediction skills for large fire occurrences than local weather. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric circulation as a driver of wildfire changes spatially. This study investigated the circulation patterns associated with wildfires and their regional dependence in the monsoon regions of China. We identified three patterns. The first pattern of positive pressure anomalies contributed to wildfires in northeast China with a cool temperate monsoon climate. The second pattern of strong southerly airflows contributed to wildfires in north, central, and south China with a subtropical East Asian monsoon climate. The third pattern of strong westerly airflows contributed to wildfires in southwest China with a subtropical South Asian monsoon climate. We showed that a circulation index formed based on the circulation patterns had higher prediction skills for large fire occurrences than local weather. Key Points: We identified three atmospheric circulation patterns for wildfires in the monsoon regions of ChinaThese patterns contributed to wildfires by generating warmer and drier conditions or affecting moisture transportWe showed that a circulation index based on these patterns had better prediction skills for monthly fire occurrence than local weather [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wildfires can impact streamflow by modifying net precipitation, infiltration, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and hillslope run-off pathways. Regional differences in fire trends and postwildfire streamflow responses across the conterminous United States have spurred concerns about the impact on streamflow in forests that serve as water resource areas. This is notably the case for the Western United States, where fire activity and burn severity have increased in conjunction with climate change and increased forest density due to human fire suppression. In this review, we discuss the effects of wildfire on hydrological processes with a special focus on regional differences in postwildfire streamflow responses in forests. Postwildfire peak flows and annual water yields are generally higher in regions with a Mediterranean or semi-arid climate (Southern California and the Southwest) compared to the highlands (Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest), where fire-induced changes in hydraulic connectivity along the hillslope results in the delivery of more water, more rapidly to streams. No clear streamflow response patterns have been identified in the humid subtropical Southeastern United States, where most fires are prescribed fires with a low burn severity, and more research is needed in that region. Improved assessment of postwildfire streamflow relies on quantitative spatial knowledge of landscape variables such as prestorm soil moisture, burn severity and correlations with soil surface sealing, water repellency, and ash deposition. The latest studies furthermore emphasize that understanding the effects of hydrological processes on postwildfire dynamic hydraulic connectivity, notably at the hillslope and watershed scales, and the relationship between overlapping disturbances including those other than wildfire is necessary for the development of risk assessment tools. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 50% of water supplies in the conterminous United States originate on forestland or rangeland and are potentially under increasing stress as a result of larger and more severe wildfires. Little is known, however, about the long-term impacts of fire on annual water yield and the role of climate variability within this context. We here propose a framework for evaluating wildland fire impacts on streamflow that combines double-mass analysis with new methods (change point analysis, climate elasticity modeling, and process-based modeling) to distinguish between multiyear fire and climate impacts. The framework captures a wide range of fire types, watersheds characteristics, and climate conditions using streamflow data, as opposed to other approaches requiring paired watersheds. The process is illustrated with three case studies. A watershed in Arizona experienced a +266% increase in annual water yield in the 5 years after a wildfire, where +219% was attributed to wildfire and +24% to precipitation trends. In contrast, a California watershed had a lower (−64%) post-fire net water yield, comprised of enhanced flow (+38%) attributed to wildfire offset (−102%) by lower precipitation in the post-fire period. Changes in streamflow within a watershed in South Carolina had no apparent link to periods of prescribed burning but matched a very wet winter and reports of storm damage. The presented framework is unique in its ability to detect and quantify fire or other disturbances, even if the date or nature of the disturbance event is uncertain, and regardless of precipitation trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forest fuel moisture is an important factor for wildland fire behavior. Predicting future wildfire trends and controlled burned conditions is essential to effective natural resource management, but the associated effects of forest fuel moisture remain uncertain. This study investigates the responses of dead forest fuel moisture to climate change in the continental United States, one of the global regions with frequent wildfire and controlled burning activities. Moisture content was calculated for dead fuels with 1- and 1000-hr lags (MC1 and MC1000) using the algorithms from the U.S. National Fire Danger Rating System. A set of dynamically downscaled regional climate change scenarios provided by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program was used. The present fuel moisture shows large seasonal variations peaked in winter and spatial variability with dominant meridional change in winter and zonal change in summer. Fuel moisture is projected to decrease overwhelmingly across the United States, mainly caused by temperature increases. The largest MC1 decrease of over 1% mainly occurs in the southwestern United States in spring and southeastern United States in summer, while the largest MC1000 decrease of over 1.5% occurs in the southwestern United States in spring and in the southern Plains and eastern United States in summer. The spatial patterns and seasonal variations of future fuel moisture trends, however, vary considerably with regional climate change scenarios. The drying fuel trends suggest that frequency, size, and intensity of wildfires would increase and prescribed burning windows would decrease in the future in the Southwest and the inter-mountains during spring and the Rocky Mountains during summer if other fuel conditions remain the same. These results highlight the general vulnerability of semiarid forests to drying fuels trends. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The detection and mapping of burned areas from wildland fires is one of the most important approaches for evaluating the impacts of fire events. In this study, a novel burned area detection algorithm for rapid response applications using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500 m surface reflectance data was developed. Spectra from bands 5 and 6, the composite indices of the Normalized Burn Ratio, and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index were employed as indicators to discover burned pixels. Historical statistical data were used to provide pre-fire baseline information. Differences in the current (post-fire) and historical (pre-fire) data were input into a support vector machine classifier, and the fire-affected pixels were detected and mapped by the support vector machine classification process. Compared with the existing MODIS level 3 monthly burned area product MCD45, the new algorithm is able to generate burned area maps on a daily basis when new data become available, which is more applicable to rapid response scenarios when major fire incidents occur. The algorithm was tested in three mega-fire cases that occurred in the continental USA. The experimental results were validated against the fire perimeter database generated by the Geospatial Multi-Agency Coordination Group and were compared with the MCD45 product. The validation results indicated that the algorithm was effective in detecting burned areas caused by mega-fires. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Among the key issues in smoke management is predicting the magnitude and location of smoke effects. These vary in severity from hazardous (acute health conditions and drastic visibility impairment to transportation) to nuisance (regional haze), and occur across a range of scales (local to continental). Over the years a variety of tools have been developed to aid in predicting smoke effects. This review follows the development of these tools, from various indices and simple screening models to complex air quality modelling systems, with a focus on how each tool represents key processes involved in smoke transport. Among the key issues in smoke management is predicting the magnitude and location of smoke effects. This review follows the development of these tools from various indices and simple screening models to complex air quality models with a focus on how each tool represents key processes involved in smoke transport. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Regional climate modeling is a technique for simulating high-resolution physical processes in the atmosphere, soil and vegetation. It can be used to evaluate wildfire potential by either providing meteorological conditions for computation of fire indices or predicting soil moisture as a direct measure of fire potential. This study examines these roles using a regional climate model (RCM) for the drought and wildfire events in 1988 in the northern United States. The National Center for Atmospheric Research regional climate model (RegCM) was used to conduct simulations of a summer month in each year from 1988 to 1995. The simulated precipitation and maximum surface air temperature were used to calculate the Keetch–Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is a popular fire potential index. We found that the KBDI increased significantly under the simulated drought condition. The corresponding fire potential was upgraded from moderate for a normal year to high level for the drought year. High fire potential is often an indicator for occurrence of intense and extensive wildfires. Fire potential changed in the opposite direction for the 1993 flood event, indicating little possibility of severe wildfires. The soil moisture and KBDI evaluations under the drought and flood conditions are in agreement with satellite remotely sensed vegetation conditions and the actual wildfire activity. The precipitation anomaly was a more important contributor to the KBDI changes than temperature anomaly. The small magnitude of the simulated soil moisture anomalies during the drought event did not provide sufficient evidence for the role of simulated soil moisture as a direct measure of wildfire potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The trend in global wildfire potential under the climate change due to the greenhouse effect is investigated. Fire potential is measured by the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which is calculated using the observed maximum temperature and precipitation and projected changes at the end of this century (2070–2100) by general circulation models (GCMs) for present and future climate conditions, respectively. It is shown that future wildfire potential increases significantly in the United States, South America, central Asia, southern Europe, southern Africa, and Australia. Fire potential moves up by one level in these regions, from currently low to future moderate potential or from moderate to high potential. Relative changes are the largest and smallest in southern Europe and Australia, respectively. The period with the KBDI greater than 400 (a simple definition for fire season in this study) becomes a few months longer. The increased fire potential is mainly caused by warming in the U.S., South America, and Australia and by the combination of warming and drying in the other regions. Sensitivity analysis shows that future fire potential depends on many factors such as climate model and emission scenario used for climate change projection. The results suggest dramatic increases in wildfire potential that will require increased future resources and management efforts for disaster prevention and recovery. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study analyzes spatial and temporal variability of emissions from wildland fires across the contiguous US. The emissions are estimates based on a recently constructed dataset of historical fire records collected by multiple US governmental agencies. Both wildfire and prescribed fires have the highest emissions over the Pacific coastal states. Prescribed fire emissions are also found to be high over the southeastern coastal area. Temporal variations of wildfire emissions in various regions are characterized by a number of strong emissions over the past two decades, which are closely related to precipitation anomalies. Prescribed fire emissions, on the other hand, show an increasing tendency in recent years. An analysis of the emissions specifically for the three National Emissions Inventory (NEI) base years of 1996, 1999, and 2002 suggests that the average of these years would represent fairly typical wildfire emissions for all regions except the Southwest and Pacific Southwest. Prescribed fire emissions during the NEI base years, on the other hand, were much higher than the historical average for all regions except the Southeast. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Recently developed monthly and provincial fire data in China were analyzed. • Fire relationships with meteorological variables and drought indices were compared. • The correlation is the highest with vapor pressure deficit (VPD) for monthly fires. • The correlation is the highest with KBDI for seasonal and annual fires. • Skills of long-range fire predictions in China are improved by using VPD and KBDI. Wildfire predictions provide useful information for fire management planning and implementation. Temperature and precipitation have been used as the primary meteorological predictors for wildfires in China. This study is to improve the prediction skills of long-range (monthly, seasonal, and annual) wildfires in China by identifying other important meteorological predictors. Provincial data during 1999–2020 were used to calculate the correlations between fire properties (fire count and burned area) and meteorological variables of maximum temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, wind speed, and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and drought indices of Keetch-Bryam Drought Index (KBDI), Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The fitting rates of the linear regression fire prediction models were compared among these meteorological variables and drought indices. The results indicate that the number of provinces with significant correlations and / or high fitting rates is the largest with VPD for monthly fires, KBDI for seasonal fires, and KBDI, PDSI, and SPI for annual fires. The number is larger in Northeast, Central, and South China than in other China regions. The number is comparable between spring and other seasons for KBDI but often smaller in spring for meteorological variables. The number is generally smaller for burned areas than fire count. It is concluded that the skills of long-range fire predictions are expected to be improved in many provinces of China by using VPD and KBDI as well as some other drought indices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A fire dataset for Daxing'anling, China was analyzed and evaluated using GFED data. • We found that wildfires changed from a bimodal pattern to a unimodal pattern. • It was caused mainly by increasing summer lightning fires. • Analysis of compositional fire series suggests the major contribution from climate change. The length of the wildfire season has become longer in many regions around the world under climate change. This study investigated changes in fire season pattern (i.e., the number of separate periods of a year when wildfires are most likely to ignite, spread, and affect resources) and the contributions of climate change in Daxing'anling, Northeast China. An expanded fire dataset in both spatial and temporal converge from ground reporting was used. A comparison with satellite detected burned areas showed good agreement in spring, summer, and entire fire season. The results showed that the number of fires used to appear in a bimodal pattern with spring and fall peaks in the last century, but transitioned to a unimodal pattern peaked in summer in this century. This conversion was mainly resulted from a remarkable increase in summer lightning fires, which was in turned associated with warming in Daxing'anling. Another factor for the conversion was decreased spring nonlightning fire occurrence in the northwest subregion, where the conversion was the most significant. This decrease of fire was mainly associated with increased precipitation. The analysis of a compositional fire series, built as the log of the ratio of lightning to nonlightning fires, suggests that climate change was a major factor for the conversion of fire season pattern. The finding from this study indicates a need to adjust the fire prevention implementation timeline by including summer fires and to develop strategies to reduce the related risks to firefighter safety and forest ecosystem health in Daxing'anling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The air quality and human health impacts of wildfires depend on fire, meteorology, and demography. These properties vary substantially from one region to another in China. This study compared smoke from more than a dozen wildfires in Northeast, North, and Southwest China to understand the regional differences in smoke transport and the air quality and human health impacts. Smoke was simulated using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model (HYSPLIT) with fire emissions obtained from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Although the simulated PM2.5 concentrations reached unhealthy or more severe levels at regional scale for some largest fires in Northeast China, smoke from only one fire was transported to densely populated areas (population density greater than 100 people/km2). In comparison, the PM2.5 concentrations reached unhealthy level in local densely populated areas for a few fires in North and Southwest China, though they were very low at regional scale. Thus, individual fires with very large sizes in Northeast China had a large amount of emissions but with a small chance to affect air quality in densely populated areas, while those in North and Southwest China had a small amount of emissions but with a certain chance to affect local densely populated areas. The results suggest that the fire and air quality management should focus on the regional air quality and human health impacts of very large fires under southward/southeastward winds toward densely populated areas in Northeast China and local air pollution near fire sites in North and Southwest China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of a forest canopy on smoke concentration is assessed by applying a numerical weather prediction model coupled with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to two low-intensity wildland (prescribed) fires in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. A comparison with observations indicates that the coupled numerical model can reproduce some of the observed variations in surface smoke concentrations and plume heights. Model sensitivity analyses highlight the effect of the forest canopy on simulated meteorological conditions, smoke concentrations, and plume heights. The forest canopy decreases near-surface wind speed, increases buoyancy, and increases turbulent mixing. Sensitivities to the time of day, plant area density profiles, and fire heat fluxes are documented. Analyses of temporal variations in smoke concentrations indicate that the effect of the transition from a daytime to a nocturnal planetary boundary layer is weaker when sensible heat fluxes from the fires are stronger. The results illustrate the challenges in simulating meteorological conditions and smoke concentrations at scales where interactions between the fire, fuels, and atmosphere are critically important. The study demonstrates the potential for predictive tools to be developed and implemented that could help fire and air-quality managers assess local air-quality impacts during low-intensity wildland fires in forested environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE) is designed to collect integrated observations from large wildland fires and provide evaluation datasets for new models and operational systems. Wildland fire, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry models have become more sophisticated, and next-generation operational models will require evaluation datasets that are coordinated and comprehensive for their evaluation and advancement. Integrated measurements are required, including ground-based observations of fuels and fire behavior, estimates of fire-emitted heat and emissions fluxes, and observations of near-source micrometeorology, plume properties, smoke dispersion, and atmospheric chemistry. To address these requirements the FASMEE campaign design includes a study plan to guide the suite of required measurements in forested sites representative of many prescribed burning programs in the southeastern United States and increasingly common high-intensity fires in the western United States. Here we provide an overview of the proposed experiment and recommendations for key measurements. The FASMEE study provides a template for additional large-scale experimental campaigns to advance fire science and operational fire and smoke models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weather is an important factor that determines smoke development, which is essential information for planning smoke field measurements. This study identifies the synoptic systems that would favor to produce the desired smoke plumes for the Fire and Smoke Model Evaluation Experiment (FASMEE). Daysmoke and PB-Piedmont (PB-P) models are used to simulate smoke plume evolution during the day time and smoke drainage and fog formation during the nighttime for hypothetical prescribed burns on 5–8 February 2011 at the Stewart Army Base in the southeastern United States. Daysmoke simulation is evaluated using the measured smoke plume heights of two historical prescribed burns at the Eglin Air Force Base. The simulation results of the hypothetical prescribed burns show that the smoke plume is not fully developed with low plume height during the daytime on 5 February when the burn site is under the warm, moist, and windy conditions connected to a shallow cyclonic system and a cold front. However, smoke drainage and fog are formed during the nighttime. Well-developed smoke plumes, which rise mainly vertically, extend to a majority portion of the planetary boundary layer, and have steady clear boundaries, appear on both 6 and 7 February when the air is cool but dry and calm during a transition between two low-pressure systems. The plume rises higher on the second day, mainly due to lighter winds. The smoke on 8 February shows a loose structure of large horizontal dispersion and low height after passage of a deep low-pressure system with strong cool and dry winds. Smoke drainage and fog formation are rare for the nights during 5–8 February. It is concluded that prescribed burns conducted during a period between two low-pressure systems would likely generate the desired plumes for FASMEE measurement during daytime. Meanwhile, as the fire smolders into the night, the burns would likely lead to fog formation when the burn site is located in the warm and moist section of a low-pressure system or a cold front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]