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African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease's progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data. The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014–2021. The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km2 every year since 2017) and marks trends. The strong method-independent correlation between the year and the surface area affected by African swine fever indicated a near-linear generalised trend. Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African swine fever (ASF) has spread across many countries in Europe since the introduction into Georgia in 2007. We report here on the first cases of ASF in wild boar detected in Germany close to the border with Poland. In addition to the constant risk of ASF virus (ASFV) spread through human activities, movements of infected wild boar also represent a route of introduction. Since ASF emerged in Western Poland in November 2019, surveillance efforts, in particular examination of wild boar found dead, were intensified in the regions of Germany bordering with Poland. The first case of ASF in wild boar in Germany was therefore detected by passive surveillance and confirmed on 10 September 2020. By 24 September 2020, 32 cases were recorded. Testing of samples from tissues of carcasses in different stages of decomposition yielded cycle threshold values from 18 to 36 in the OIE‐recommended PCR, which were comparable between the regional and national reference laboratory. Blood swabs yielded reliable results, indicating that the method is suitable also under outbreak conditions. Phylogenetic analysis of the ASFV whole‐genome sequence generated from material of the first carcass detected in Germany, revealed that it groups with ASFV genotype II including all sequences from Eastern Europe, Asia and Belgium. However, some genetic markers including a 14 bp tandem repeat duplication in the O174L gene were confirmed that have so far been detected only in sequences from Poland (including Western Poland). Epidemiological investigations that include estimated postmortem intervals of wild boar carcasses of infected animals suggest that ASFV had been introduced into Germany in the first half of July 2020 or even earlier. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental sources of infection can play a primary role in shaping epidemiological dynamics; however, the relative impact of environmental transmission on host‐pathogen systems is rarely estimated. We developed and fit a spatially explicit model of African swine fever virus (ASFV) in wild boar to estimate what proportion of carcass‐based transmission is contributing to the low‐level persistence of ASFV in Eastern European wild boar. Our model was developed based on ecological insight and data from field studies of ASFV and wild boar in Eastern Poland. We predicted that carcass‐based transmission would play a substantial role in persistence, especially in low‐density host populations where contact rates are low. By fitting the model to outbreak data using approximate Bayesian computation, we inferred that between 53% and 66% of transmission events were carcass‐based that is, transmitted through contact of a live host with a contaminated carcass. Model fitting and sensitivity analyses showed that the frequency of carcass‐based transmission increased with decreasing host density, suggesting that management policies should emphasize the removal of carcasses and consider how reductions in host densities may drive carcass‐based transmission. Sensitivity analyses also demonstrated that carcass‐based transmission is necessary for the autonomous persistence of ASFV under realistic parameters. Autonomous persistence through direct transmission alone required high host densities; otherwise re‐introduction of virus periodically was required for persistence when direct transmission probabilities were moderately high. We quantify the relative role of different persistence mechanisms for a low‐prevalence disease using readily collected ecological data and viral surveillance data. Understanding how the frequency of different transmission mechanisms vary across host densities can help identify optimal management strategies across changing ecological conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]