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The Pacific Northwest is expected to witness changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change. In this study, we enhance the Snake River Planning Model ( SRPM) by modeling the feedback loop between incidental recharge and surface water supply resulting from surface water and groundwater extraction for irrigation and provide a case study involving climate change impacts and management scenarios. The new System Dynamics-Snake River Planning Model ( SD- SRPM) is calibrated to flow at Box Canyon Springs located along a major outlet of the East Snake Plain Aquifer. A calibration of the model to flow at Box Canyon Springs, based on historic diversions (1950-1995) resulted in an r2 value of 0.74 and a validation (1996-2005) r2 value of 0.60. After adding irrigation entities to the model an r2 value of 0.91, 0.88, and 0.87 were maintained for modeled vs. observed (1991-2005) end-of-month reservoir content in Jackson Lake, Palisades, and American Falls, the three largest irrigation reservoirs in the system. The scenarios that compared the impacts of climate change were based on ensemble mean precipitation change scenarios and estimated changes to crop evapotranspiration ( ET). Increased ET, despite increased precipitation, generally increased surface water shortages and discharge of springs. This study highlights the need to develop and implement models that integrate the human-natural system to understand the impacts of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines what is generally considered to be an unattainable goal in the western United States: integrated water resources management (IWRM). Specifically, we examine an organization that is quite unique in the West, Montana's Clark Fork River Basin Task Force (Task Force), and we analyze its activities since its formation in 2001 to answer the question: are the activities and contributions of the Task Force working to promote a more strongly integrated approach to water resources management in Montana? After reviewing the concepts underlying IWRM, some of the issues that have been identified for achieving IWRM in the West, and the Montana system of water right allocation and issues it faces, we adapt Mitchell's IWRM framework and apply it to the analysis of the Task Force's activities in the context of IWRM. In evaluating the physical, interaction, and protocol/planning/policy components of IWRM, we find that the Task Force has been contributing to the evolution of Montana's water resources management towards this framework, though several factors will likely continue to prevent its complete realization. The Task Force has been successful in this regard because of its unique nature and charge, and because of the authority and power given it by successive Montana legislatures. Also critical to the success of the organization is its ability to help translate into policy the outcomes of legal and quasi-judicial decisions that have impacted the state's water resources management agency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in irrigation and land use may impact discharge of the Snake River Plain aquifer, which is a major contributor to flow of the Snake River in southern Idaho. The Snake River Basin planning and management model (SRBM) has been expanded to include the spatial distribution and temporal attenuation that occurs as aquifer stresses propagate through the aquifer to the river. The SRBM is a network flow model in which aquifer characteristics have been introduced through a matrix of response functions. The response functions were determined by independently simulating the effect of a unit stress in each cell of a finite difference groundwater flow model on six reaches of the Snake River. Cells were aggregated into 20 aquifer zones and average response functions for each river reach were included in the SRBM. This approach links many of the capabilities of surface and ground water flow models. Evaluation of an artificial recharge scenario approximately reproduced estimates made by direct simulation in a ground water flow model. The example demonstrated that the method can produce reasonable results but interpretation of the results can be biased if the simulation period is not of adequate duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]