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Climate change is a major problem for humanity, as it can drastically alter the current climate scenario, affecting mainly agriculture. In the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), agribusiness is the main economic activity representing a large part of the state's GDP. Therefore, the aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the climatological water balance in the Pantanal regions of Brazil. We used a 30-year historical series (1987–2018) of air temperature data (Tar, °C) and rainfall (P, mm) from the state of MS; climatic data were collected by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration platform/Prediction of World Wide Energy Resources - (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (PET) was estimated using the Camargo (1971) method. The water balance (WB) was calculated using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, with soil water storage capacity equal to 100 mm. We calculated the aridity, hydric, and moisture indices for all municipalities in MS, and later classified according to Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the (IPCC 2014) projections. Air temperatures in the MS ranged from 22.5 to 27.6 °C in the current scenario; rainfall and PET have an average of 1400 mm annual−1 and 1188 mm annual−1, respectively. The WB of the state of MS has an EXC and DEF of 197.7 mm annual−1 and 64.2 mm annual−1, respectively. The predominant climatic type is C2 - subhumid. The highest values for SWS and EXC occur in scenarios S5, S10, S15, and S20, which are the most moisture scenarios. The highest DEF occurred in scenarios S1, S11, S16, and S21; these scenarios showed the driest climatic types. The northwestern region of the state, where the Pantanal is located, was the driest. In scenario S21, the climate of the state has a drastic change that makes several crops in the MS unfeasible, thus negatively influencing the fauna and flora of the Pantanal biome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate directly and indirectly influences agriculture, being the main responsible for low and high yields. Prior knowledge on yield helps coffee farmers in their decision-making and planning for the future harvest, avoiding unnecessary costs and losses during the harvesting process. Thus, we sought to predict coffee yield with regressive models using meteorological data of the state of Paraná, Brazil. This study was carried out in 15 localities that produce Coffea arabica in this Brazilian state. The climate data were collected using the NASA/POWER platform from 1989 to 2020, while the data of arabica coffee yield (bags/ha) were obtained by CONAB from 2003 to 2018. The Penman–Monteith method was used to calculate the reference evapotranspiration and the climatological water balance (WB) was calculated based on Thornthwaite and Mather (1955). Multiple linear regression was used in the data modeling, in which C. arabica yield was the dependent variable and air temperature, precipitation, solar radiation, water deficit, water surplus, and soil water storage were the independent variables. The comparison between the estimation models and the actual data was performed using the statistical indices RMSE (accuracy) and adjusted coefficient of determination (R2adj) (precision). Multiple linear regression models can predict arabica coffee yield in the state of Paraná 2 to 3 months before harvest. The maximum air temperature is the climate element that most influences coffee plants, especially during fruit formation (March). Maximum air temperatures of 31.01 °C in March can reduce coffee production. Wenceslau Braz, Jacarezinho, and Ibaiti presented the highest yields, with mean values of 32.5, 29.9, and 29.3 bags ha−1, respectively. The models calibrated for localities that have Argisol had the highest mean accuracy, with an RMSE of 2.68 bags ha−1. The best models were calibrated for Paranavaí (Latosol), with an RMSE of 0.78 bags ha−1 and R2adj of 0.89, and Ibaiti (Argisol), with RMSE and R2adj values of 3.09 bags ha−1 and 0.83, respectively. Paranavaí has a mean difference between the actual and estimated coffee yield of only 0.86 bags ha−1. The highest deviations were observed in Wenceslau Braz (9.17 bags ha−1) and the lowest deviations were found in Paranavaí (0.86 bags ha−1). The models can be used to predict arabica coffee yield, assisting the planning of coffee farmers in the northern region of the state of Paraná. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate Classification System (CCS) is an important tool for validating climate change models, subsidizing the characterization of new areas suitable or unfit for agricultural activity according to future climate change scenarios. This study aims to classify the climate of the Brazilian territory in the various climate change scenarios of the IPCC through the Thornthwaite system (1948). We used a 30-year historical series (1989–2019) of climatic data of average air temperature (°C) and rainfall (mm), obtained from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources platform (NASA/POWER). Potential evapotranspiration (ETP) was estimated by the method of Camargo (1971); the climatological water balance (CWB) was calculated by the method of Thornthwaite and Mather (1955), using 100 mm of soil water storage capacity. CWB extracts were combined for classification by Thornthwaite (1948). The scenarios used were based on the IPCC (2014) projections and the study of Pirttioja et al. (2015). The Brazilian territory had an average air temperature of 22.20 °C (± 3.20) °C and annual precipitation of 1987 mm (± 725) mm. The climatic classification of Thornthwaite presented 108 climatic classes for the current scenario with a more significant predominance of the classes ArAʹaʹ, B4rAʹaʹ, and B3rAʹaʹ representing 20.54%, 15.62%, and 9.46% of the Brazilian territory, respectively. The climate class ArAʹaʹ had 39.20% in the North and 14.97% in the Midwest. The South region has a predominance of 24.31% for the class ArBʹ3aʹ. In the Southeast and Northeast, the climate classes B2rBʹ3aʹ and DdBʹ2aʹ represented 14.80% and 15.26% of the regions, respectively. The S5 scenario was considered more favorable to establishing crops, with 48.04% of Brazil represented by the climate class ArAʹaʹ. Furthermore, the most catastrophic scenarios for crops were S3 and S4, promoting Brazil a predominance of classes B3rAʹaʹ in 18.02% and B1rAʹaʹ in 21.04%, respectively, favoring the occurrence of arid and dry climates in large part of the Brazilian territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]