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Groundwater is critical for maintaining stream baseflow and thermal stability; however, the influence of groundwater on streamflow has been difficult to evaluate at broad spatial scales. Techniques such as baseflow separation necessitate streamflow records and do not directly indicate whether groundwater inflow may be sourced from more dynamic shallow flowpaths. We present a web tool application PASTA (Paired Air and Stream Temperature Analysis; https://cuahsi.shinyapps.io/pasta/) that capitalizes on increased public stream temperature data availability and large-scale, gridded climate observations to provide new and efficient insights regarding relative groundwater influence on streams. PASTA analyzes paired air and stream water temperature signals to evaluate spatiotemporal patterns in stream thermal sensitivity and relative groundwater influence, including inference regarding the dominant source groundwater depth (shallow or deep (i.e., approximately >6 m depth)). The tool is linked to publicly available stream temperature datasets and accepts user-uploaded datasets. As local air temperature is not often monitored, PASTA pulls daily air temperature data from the comprehensive Daymet products when directly measured data are unavailable, allowing the repurposing of existing stream temperature data. After data are selected or uploaded, the tool (a) fits sinusoidal curves of daily stream and air temperatures by year (water or calendar) to indicate groundwater influence characteristics and (b) performs linear regressions for stream versus air temperatures to indicate stream thermal sensitivity. Results are exported in ASCII file format, creating an efficient and approachable analysis tool for the adoption of newly developed heat tracing analysis from stream reach to landscape scales.

Alpine headwaters in subarctic regions are particularly sensitive to climate change, yet there is little information on stream thermal regimes in these areas and how they might respond to global warming. In this paper, we characterize and compare the hydrological and thermal regimes of two subarctic headwater alpine streams within an empirical framework. The streams investigated are located within two adjacent catchments with similar geology, size, elevation and landscape, Granger Creek (GC) and Buckbrush Creek (BB), which are part of the Wolf Creek Research Basin in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Hydrometeorological and high‐resolution stream temperature data were collected throughout summer 2016. Both sites exhibited a flow regime typical of cold alpine headwater catchments influenced by frozen ground and permafrost. Comparatively, GC was characterized by a flashier response with more extreme flows, than BB. In both sites, stream temperature was highly variable and very responsive to short‐term changes in climatic conditions. On average, stream temperature in BB was slightly higher than in GC (respectively 5.8 and 5.7°C), but less variable (average difference between 75th and 25th quantiles of 1.6 and 2.0°C). Regression analysis between mean daily air and stream temperature suggested that a greater relative (to stream flow) groundwater contribution in BB could more effectively buffer atmospheric fluctuations. Heat fluxes were derived and utilized to assess their relative contribution to the energy balance. Overall, non‐advective fluxes followed a daily pattern highly correlated to short‐wave radiation. G1enerally, solar radiation and latent heat were respectively the most important heat source and sink, while air–water interface processes were major factors driving nighttime stream temperature fluctuations.

Understanding the interactions between ground freeze-thaw, groundwater flow, and solute transport is imperative for evaluating the fate of contaminants in permafrost regions. However, predicting solute migration in permafrost-affected groundwater systems is challenging due to the inherent interactions and coupling between subsurface mass and energy transport processes. To this end, we developed a numerical model that considers coupled groundwater flow, subsurface heat transfer, and solute transport, including water-ice phase change, solute-dependent porewater freezing, and temperature-dependent solute reaction rates. As an illustrative example, we present simulations to investigate the potential for contamination from a municipal wastewater lagoon in the Canadian sub-arctic. Two-dimensional groundwater models assuming varying permafrost conditions were developed to evaluate possible contaminant migration scenarios associated with groundwater flow from the lagoon to a river, including the transport of conservative, degradable, and sorbing solutes. Model results reveal important transport mechanisms controlling the behavior of aqueous contaminants in permafrost landscapes as well as the hydrogeologic factors affecting reactive transport in cold regions. Seasonal freeze-thaw episodically restricts connectivity of transport pathways, which attenuates both transport and reaction rates. However, elevated solute concentrations can depress the freezing temperature of porewater and produce thaw-induced solute transport. Both thermally driven and solute-enhanced thaw can decrease ice content in permafrost, which can have significant implications for solute migration. Therefore, thermo-hydrogeologic process controlling reactive transport in cold-region groundwater systems must be considered when quantitatively assessing the impact of changing environmental conditions on contaminant hydrogeology.

As permafrost thaws in the Arctic, new subsurface pathways open for the transport of groundwater, energy, and solutes. We identify different ways that these subsurface changes are driving observed surface consequences, including the potential for increased contaminant transport, modification to water resources, and enhanced rates of infrastructure (e.g. buildings and roads) damage. Further, as permafrost thaws it allows groundwater to transport carbon, nutrients, and other dissolved constituents from terrestrial to aquatic environments via progressively deeper subsurface flow paths. Cryohydrogeology, the study of groundwater in cold regions, should be included in northern research initiatives to account for this hidden catalyst of environmental and societal change.

Heat has been widely applied to trace groundwater-surface water exchanges in inland environments, but it is infrequently applied in coastal sediment where head oscillations induce periodicity in water flux magnitude/direction and heat advection. This complicates interpretation of temperatures to estimate water fluxes. We investigate the convolution of thermal and hydraulic signals to assess the viability of using heat as a tracer in environments with tidal head oscillations superimposed on submarine groundwater discharge. We first generate sediment temperature and head time series for conditions ranging from no tide to mega-tidal using a numerical model (SUTRA) forced with periodic temperature and tidal head signals. We then analyze these synthetic temperature time series using heat tracing software (VFLUX2 and 1DTempPro) to evaluate if conventional terrestrial approaches to infer fluxes from temperatures are applicable for coastal settings. We consider high-frequency water flux variability within a tidal signal and averaged over tidal signals. Results show that VFLUX2 analytical methods reasonably estimated the mean discharge fluxes in most cases but could not reproduce the flux variability within tidal cycles. The model results further reveal that high-frequency time series of water fluxes varying in magnitude and direction can be accurately estimated if paired temperatures and hydraulic heads are analyzed using numerical models (e.g., 1DTempPro) that consider both dynamic hydraulic gradients and thermal signals. These results point to the opportunity to incorporate pressure sensors within heat tracing instrumentation to better assess sub-daily flux oscillations and associated reactive processes.

Reliably quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from confined aquifers in sedimentary basins is increasingly recognized as a critical challenge that impedes sustainable groundwater management. One approach to quantify such fluxes is through the analysis of deep (e.g., >50 m) borehole thermal profiles penetrating through aquifer-aquitard systems. Recently developed methods to interpret such data exploit the relationship between vertical groundwater flow and the downward propagation of surface temperature disturbances resulting from climate warming. In this note, we advance beyond prior studies that assumed steady-state groundwater flow by demonstrating how hydrogeological regime shifts on decadal time scales can be quantitatively inferred from temperature-depth profiles (TDPs). We use a set of repeated temperature-depth profiles from one site in an unconsolidated sedimentary aquifer system, recorded in 1980 and 2016/2018 to tentatively infer a minimum of a threefold increase in groundwater downwelling to deeper aquifers (i.e., from 100 to 350 mm/year). The enhanced flux likely results from intensified, deep groundwater abstraction in the vicinity since the mid-1980s. We reach this conclusion through analyzing the occurrence and downward propagation of the minimum temperature in the profiles as well as the temporal trend in deeper groundwater temperatures. We conclude that repeated temperature-depth profiles can be suitable to archive hydrogeological changes. Our results provide the impetus for more systematic collection of present-day TDPs to provide a historical benchmark from which to assess future groundwater flow alterations, especially in areas that lack traditional aquifer monitoring via hydraulic head measurements.

Numerical models of permafrost evolution in porous media typically rely upon a smooth continuous relation between pore ice saturation and sub-freezing temperature, rather than the abrupt phase change that occurs in pure media. Soil scientists have known for decades that this function, known as the soil freezing curve (SFC), is related to the soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) for unfrozen soils due to the analogous capillary and sorptive effects experienced during both soil freezing and drying. Herein we demonstrate that other factors beyond the SFC-SWCC relationship can influence the potential range over which pore water phase change occurs. In particular, we provide a theoretical extension for the functional form of the SFC based upon the presence of spatial heterogeneity in both soil thermal conductivity and the freezing point depression of water. We infer the functional form of the SFC from many abrupt-interface 1-D numerical simulations of heterogeneous systems with prescribed statistical distributions of water and soil properties. The proposed SFC paradigm extension has the appealing features that it (1) is determinable from measurable soil and water properties, (2) collapses into an abrupt phase transition for homogeneous media, (3) describes a wide range of heterogeneity within a single functional expression, and (4) replicates the observed hysteretic behavior of freeze-thaw cycles in soils.

The thermal regimes of alpine streams remain understudied and have important implications for cold-water fish habitat which is expected to decline due to climatic warming. Previous research has focused on the effects of distributed energy fluxes and meltwater from snowpacks and glaciers on the temperature of mountain streams. This study presents the effects of the groundwater spring discharge from an inactive rock glacier containing little ground ice on the temperature of an alpine stream. Rock glaciers are coarse blocky landforms that are ubiquitous in alpine environments and typically exhibit low groundwater discharge temperatures and resilience to climatic warming. Water temperature data indicate that the rock glacier spring cools the stream by an average of 3°C during July and August and reduces maximum daily temperatures by an average of 5°C during the peak temperature period of the first two weeks in August, producing a cold-water refuge downstream of the spring. The distributed stream surface and streambed energy fluxes are calculated for the reach along the toe of the rock glacier, and solar radiation dominates the distributed stream energy budget. The lateral advective heat flux generated by the rock glacier spring is compared to the distributed energy fluxes over the study reach, and the spring advective heat flux is the dominant control on stream temperature at the reach scale. This study highlights the potential for coarse blocky landforms to generate climatically-resilient cold-water refuges in alpine streams.

Temperature can be used to trace groundwater flows due to thermal disturbances of subsurface advection. Prior hydrogeological studies that have used temperature-depth profiles to estimate vertical groundwater fluxes have either ignored the influence of climate change by employing steady-state analytical solutions or applied transient techniques to study temperature-depth profiles recorded at only a single point in time. Transient analyses of a single profile are predicated on the accurate determination of an unknown profile at some time in the past to form the initial condition. In this study, we use both analytical solutions and a numerical model to demonstrate that boreholes with temperature-depth profiles recorded at multiple times can be analyzed to either overcome the uncertainty associated with estimating unknown initial conditions or to form an additional check for the profile fitting. We further illustrate that the common approach of assuming a linear initial temperature-depth profile can result in significant errors for groundwater flux estimates. Profiles obtained from a borehole in the Veluwe area, Netherlands in both 1978 and 2016 are analysed for an illustrative example. Since many temperature-depth profiles were collected in the late 1970s and 1980s, these previously profiled boreholes represent a significant and underexploited opportunity to obtain repeat measurements that can be used for similar analyses at other sites around the world.

Groundwater flow advects heat, and thus, the deviation of subsurface temperatures from an expected conduction-dominated regime can be analysed to estimate vertical water fluxes. A number of analytical approaches have been proposed for using heat as a groundwater tracer, and these have typically assumed a homogeneous medium. However, heterogeneous thermal properties are ubiquitous in subsurface environments, both at the scale of geologic strata and at finer scales in streambeds. Herein, we apply the analytical solution of Shan and Bodvarsson (2004), developed for estimating vertical water fluxes in layered systems, in 2 new environments distinct from previous vadose zone applications. The utility of the solution for studying groundwater-surface water exchange is demonstrated using temperature data collected from an upwelling streambed with sediment layers, and a simple sensitivity analysis using these data indicates the solution is relatively robust. Also, a deeper temperature profile recorded in a borehole in South Australia is analysed to estimate deeper water fluxes. The analytical solution is able to match observed thermal gradients, including the change in slope at sediment interfaces. Results indicate that not accounting for layering can yield errors in the magnitude and even direction of the inferred Darcy fluxes. A simple automated spreadsheet tool (Flux-LM) is presented to allow users to input temperature and layer data and solve the inverse problem to estimate groundwater flux rates from shallow (e.g.

Alpine watersheds source major rivers throughout the world and supply essential water for irrigation, human consumption, and hydroelectricity. Coarse depositional units in alpine watersheds can store and transmit significant volumes of groundwater and thus augment stream discharge during the dry season. These environments are typically data scarce, which has limited the application of physically-based models to investigate hydrologic sensitivity to environmental change. This study focuses on a coarse alpine talus unit within the Lake O'Hara watershed in the Canadian Rockies. We investigate processes controlling the hydrologic functioning of the talus unit using field observations and a numerical groundwater flow model driven with a distributed snowmelt model. The model hydraulic parameters are adjusted to investigate how these properties influence the propagation of snowmelt-induced diurnal signals. The model results expectedly demonstrate that diurnal signals at the talus outlet are progressively damped and lagged with lower hydraulic conductivity and higher specific yield. The simulations further indicate that the lag can be primarily controlled by a higher hydraulic conductivity upper layer, whereas the damping can be strongly influenced by a lower hydraulic conductivity layer along the base of the talus. The simulations specifically suggest that the talus slope can be represented as a two layer system with a high conductivity zone (0.02 m s−1) overlying a 10 cm thick lower conductivity zone (0.002 m s−1). This study demonstrates that diurnal signals can be used to elucidate the hydrologic functioning and hydraulic properties of shallow aquifers and thus aid in the parameterization of hydrological models.

Understanding how rivers respond to changes in land cover, climate, and subsurface conditions is critical for sustainably managing water resources and ecosystems. In this study, long-term hydrologic, climate, and satellite data (1973–2012) from the Upper Tahe River watershed (2359 km2) in the Da Hinggan Mountains of northeast China were analysed to quantify the relative hydrologic effects of climate variability (system input) and the combined influences of forest cover change and permafrost thaw (system characteristics) on average annual streamflow (system response) using 2 methods: the sensitivity-based method and the Kendall–Theil robust line method. The study period was subdivided into a forest harvesting period (1973–1987), a forest stability period (1988–2001), and a forest recovery period (2002–2012). The results indicated that the combined effects of forest harvesting and permafrost thaw on streamflow (+ 47.0 mm) from the forest harvesting period to the forest stability period was approximately twice as large as the effect associated with climate variability (+20.2 mm). Similarly, from the forest stability period to the forest recovery period, the decrease in average annual streamflow attributed to the combined effects of forest recovery and permafrost thaw (−38.0 mm) was much greater than the decrease due to climate variability (−22.2 mm). A simple method was used to separate the distinct impacts of forest cover change and permafrost thaw, but distinguishing these influences is difficult due to changes in surface and subsurface hydrologic connectivity associated with permafrost thaw. The results highlight the need to consider multiple streamflow drivers in future watershed and aquatic ecosystem management. Due to the ecological and hydrological susceptibility to disturbances in the Da Hinggan Mountains, forest harvesting will likely negatively impact ecohydrological processes in this region, and the effects of forest species transition in the forest recovery process should be further investigated.

Quantifying groundwater fluxes to and from deep aquifers or shallow sediment is a critical task faced by researchers and practitioners from many environmental science disciplines including hydrology, hydrogeology, ecology, climatology, and oceanography. Groundwater discharge to inland and coastal water bodies influences their water budgets, thermal regimes, and biogeochemistry. Conversely, downward water flow from the land surface or from surface water bodies to underlying aquifers represents an important water flux that must be quantified for sustainable groundwater management. Because these vertical subsurface flows are slow and typically diffuse, they cannot be measured directly and must rather be estimated using groundwater tracers. Heat is a naturally occurring groundwater tracer that is ubiquitous in the subsurface and readily measured. Most of the academic literature has focused on groundwater temperature tracing methods capitalizing on the propagation of diel temperature sine waves into sediment beneath surface water bodies. Such methods rely on temperature–time series to infer groundwater fluxes and are typically only viable in the shallow subsurface and in locations with focused groundwater fluxes. Alternative methods that utilize temperature–depth profiles are applicable across a broader range of hydrologic environments, and point‐in‐time measurements can be quickly taken to cover larger spatial scales. Applications of these methods have been impeded due in part to the lack of understanding regarding their potential applications and limitations. Herein, we highlight relevant theory, thermal data collection techniques, and recent diverse field applications to stimulate further multidisciplinary uptake of thermal groundwater tracing methods that rely on temperature–depth profiles.

Recent climate change has reduced the spatial extent and thickness of permafrost in many discontinuous permafrost regions. Rapid permafrost thaw is producing distinct landscape changes in the Taiga Plains of the Northwest Territories, Canada. As permafrost bodies underlying forested peat plateaus shrink, the landscape slowly transitions into unforested wetlands. The expansion of wetlands has enhanced the hydrologic connectivity of many watersheds via new surface and near-surface flow paths, and increased streamflow has been observed. Furthermore, the decrease in forested peat plateaus results in a net loss of boreal forest and associated ecosystems. This study investigates fundamental processes that contribute to permafrost thaw by comparing observed and simulated thaw development and landscape transition of a peat plateau-wetland complex in the Northwest Territories, Canada from 1970 to 2012. Measured climate data are first used to drive surface energy balance simulations for the wetland and peat plateau. Near-surface soil temperatures simulated in the surface energy balance model are then applied as the upper boundary condition to a three-dimensional model of subsurface water flow and coupled energy transport with freeze-thaw. Simulation results demonstrate that lateral heat transfer, which is not considered in many permafrost models, can influence permafrost thaw rates. Furthermore, the simulations indicate that landscape evolution arising from permafrost thaw acts as a positive feedback mechanism that increases the energy absorbed at the land surface and produces additional permafrost thaw. The modeling results also demonstrate that flow rates in local groundwater flow systems may be enhanced by the degradation of isolated permafrost bodies.

This study details the derivation and application of a new analytical solution to the one-dimensional, transient conduction-advection equation that is applied to trace vertical subsurface fluid fluxes. The solution employs a flexible initial condition that allows for nonlinear temperature-depth profiles, providing a key improvement over most previous solutions. The boundary condition is composed of any number of superimposed step changes in surface temperature, and thus it accommodates intermittent warming and cooling periods due to long-term changes in climate or land cover. The solution is verified using an established numerical model of coupled groundwater flow and heat transport. A new computer program FAST (Flexible Analytical Solution using Temperature) is also presented to facilitate the inversion of this analytical solution to estimate vertical groundwater flow. The program requires surface temperature history (which can be estimated from historic climate data), subsurface thermal properties, a present-day temperature-depth profile, and reasonable initial conditions. FAST is written in the Python computing language and can be run using a free graphical user interface. Herein, we demonstrate the utility of the analytical solution and FAST using measured subsurface temperature and climate data from the Sendia Plain, Japan. Results from these illustrative examples highlight the influence of the chosen initial and boundary conditions on estimated vertical flow rates.

Submarine groundwater fluxes across the seafloor facilitate important hydrological and biogeochemical exchanges between oceans and seabed sediment, yet few studies have investigated spatially distributed groundwater fluxes in deep-ocean environments such as continental slopes. Heat has been previously applied as a submarine groundwater tracer using an analytical solution to a heat flow equation assuming steady state conditions and homogeneous thermal conductivity. These assumptions are often violated in shallow seabeds due to ocean bottom temperature changes or sediment property variations. Here heat tracing analysis techniques recently developed for terrestrial settings are applied in concert to examine the influences of groundwater flow, ocean temperature changes, and seabed thermal conductivity variations on deep-ocean sediment temperature profiles. Temperature observations from the sediment and bottom ocean water on the Scotian Slope off eastern Canada are used to demonstrate how simple thermal methods for tracing groundwater can be employed if more comprehensive techniques indicate that the simplifying assumptions are valid. The spatial distribution of the inferred groundwater fluxes on the slope suggests a downward groundwater flow system with recharge occurring over the upper-middle slope and discharge on the lower slope. We speculate that the downward groundwater flow inferred on the Scotian Slope is due to density-driven processes arising from underlying salt domes, in contrast with upward slope systems driven by geothermal convection. Improvements in the design of future submarine hydrogeological studies are proposed for thermal data collection and groundwater flow analysis, including new equations that quantify the minimum detectable flux magnitude for a given sensor accuracy and profile length.

In high-elevation, boreal and arctic regions, hydrological processes and associated water bodies can be strongly influenced by the distribution of permafrost. Recent field and modeling studies indicate that a fully-coupled multidimensional thermo-hydraulic approach is required to accurately model the evolution of these permafrost-impacted landscapes and groundwater systems. However, the relatively new and complex numerical codes being developed for coupled non-linear freeze-thaw systems require verification. This issue is addressed by means of an intercomparison of thirteen numerical codes for two-dimensional test cases with several performance metrics (PMs). These codes comprise a wide range of numerical approaches, spatial and temporal discretization strategies, and computational efficiencies. Results suggest that the codes provide robust results for the test cases considered and that minor discrepancies are explained by computational precision. However, larger discrepancies are observed for some PMs resulting from differences in the governing equations, discretization issues, or in the freezing curve used by some codes.

To better understand and monitor the hydraulic effects caused by clogging near groundwater production wells, a study was conducted in the unconfined sand aquifer used by the City of North Battleford, Saskatchewan, Canada. Detailed investigations were carried out near one production well between the spring of 2007 and the fall of 2008. Results from four pumping tests conducted over this time period indicated no significant temporal changes in hydraulic conductivity within approximately 2 m of the pumping well. In contrast, long-term monitoring of hydraulic head differentials did reveal increases with time, and suggested that clogging began to accelerate within a radius of 1 m of the well after about one year of continuous pumping. Continuous monitoring of hydraulic head in pumping wells and nearby piezometers, combined with breakpoint analyses of head differentials and specific capacity tests, will be more effective than standard pumping tests for detecting temporal and spatial trends in aquifer an...

Rapid permafrost thaw and precipitation regime shifts are altering surface and subsurface hydrological processes in arctic and subarctic watersheds. Long-term data (40 years) from two large permafrost watersheds in northeastern China, the Tahe River and Duobukuer River watersheds, indicate that winter baseflows are characterized by significant positive trends of 1.7% and 2.5%·year−1, respectively. Winter baseflows exhibited statistically significant positive correlations with mean annual air temperature and the thawing index, an indicator of permafrost degradation, for both watersheds, as well as the increasing annual rainfall fraction of precipitation for the Duobukuer River watershed. Winter baseflows were characterized by a breakpoint in 1989, which lagged behind the mean annual air temperature breakpoint by only two years. The statistical analyses suggest that the increases in winter baseflow are likely related to enhanced groundwater storage and winter groundwater discharge caused by permafrost thaw and are potentially also due to an increase in the wet season rainfall. These hydrological trends are first apparent in marginal areas of permafrost distribution and are expected to shift northward towards formerly continuous permafrost regions in the context of future climate warming.

summary Streambed temperature and heat fluxes are important for aquatic habitats as well as in the development and improvement of water temperature models. In the present study, measured streambed temperatures at different depths were used as a tracer to predict the magnitude and direction of groundwater flow using an advection–conduction heat transport model. This analysis was carried out under different conditions, namely under natural surface water temperature conditions (i.e., as measured in the field), under steady-state conditions (e.g. under stream ice cover) and for conditions where the surface water temperatures followed a sinusoidal function. In Catamaran Brook, results from the advection–conduction numerical model showed good agreement between predicted and observed streambed temperatures with root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) ranging between 0.07 C to 0.6 C. A comparison of streambed fluxes showed that the heat flux by conduction was more important during the summer period for upwelling conditions (mean value 96 W m � 2

Numerous cold regions water flow and energy transport models have emerged in recent years. Dissimilarities often exist in their mathematical formulations and/or numerical solution techniques, but few analytical solutions exist for benchmarking flow and energy transport models that include pore water phase change. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Lunardini solution, an approximate analytical solution for predicting soil thawing subject to conduction, advection, and phase change. Fifteen thawing scenarios are examined by considering differences in porosity, surface temperature, Darcy velocity, and initial temperature. The accuracy of the Lunardini solution is shown to be proportional to the Stefan number. The analytical solution results obtained for soil thawing scenarios with water flow and advection are compared to those obtained from the finite element model SUTRA. Three problems, two involving the Lunardini solution and one involving the classic Neumann solution, are recommended as standard benchmarks for future model development and testing.

Cold groundwater discharge to streams and rivers can provide critical thermal refuge for threatened salmonids and other aquatic species during warm summer periods. Climate change may influence groundwater temperature and flow rates, which may in turn impact riverine ecosystems. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the timing, magnitude, and temperature of groundwater discharge from small, unconfined aquifers that undergo seasonal freezing and thawing. Seven downscaled climate scenarios for 2046–2065 were utilized to drive surficial water and energy balance models (HELP3 and ForHyM2) to obtain future projections for daily ground surface temperature and groundwater recharge. These future surface conditions were then applied as boundary conditions to drive subsurface simulations of variably saturated groundwater flow and energy transport. The subsurface simulations were performed with the U.S. Geological Survey finite element model SUTRA that was recently modified to include the dynamic freeze-thaw process. The SUTRA simulations indicate a potential rise in the magnitude (up to 34%) and temperature (up to 3.6°C) of groundwater discharge to the adjacent river during the summer months due to projected increases in air temperature and precipitation. The thermal response of groundwater to climate change is shown to be strongly dependent on the aquifer dimensions. Thus, the simulations demonstrate that the thermal sensitivity of aquifers and baseflow-dominated streams to decadal climate change may be more complex than previously thought. Furthermore, the results indicate that the probability of exceeding critical temperature thresholds within groundwater-sourced thermal refugia may significantly increase under the most extreme climate scenarios.

Recently, there has been a revival in the development of models simulating coupled heat and water transport in cold regions. These models represent significant advances in our ability to simulate the sensitivity of permafrost environments to future climate change. However, there are considerable differences in model formulations arising from the diverse backgrounds of researchers and practitioners in this field. The variability in existing model formulations warrants a review and synthesis of the underlying theory to demonstrate the implicit assumptions and limitations of a particular approach. This contribution examines various forms of the Clapeyron equation, the relationship between the soil moisture curve and soil freezing curve, and processes for developing soil freezing curves and hydraulic conductivity models for partially frozen soils. Where applicable, results from recent laboratory tests are presented to demonstrate the validity of existing theoretical formulations. Identified variations in model formulations form the basis for briefly comparing and contrasting existing models. Several unresolved questions are addressed to highlight the need for further research in this rapidly expanding field.

Summary Global climate models (GCMs) project significant changes to regional and globally-averaged precipitation and air temperature, and these changes will likely have an associated impact on groundwater recharge. A common approach in recent climate change-impact studies is to employ multiple downscaled climate change scenarios to drive a hydrological model and project an envelope of recharge possibilities. However, each step in this process introduces variability into the hydrological results, which translates to uncertainty in the future state of groundwater resources. In this contribution, seven downscaled future climate scenarios for a northern humid-continental climate in eastern Canada were generated from selected combinations of GCMs, emission scenarios, and downscaling approaches. Meteorological data from the climate scenarios and field data from a small unconfined aquifer were used to estimate groundwater recharge with the soil water balance model HELP3. HELP3 simulations for the period 2046–2065 indicated that projected recharge was most sensitive to the selected downscaling/debiasing algorithm and GCM. Projected changes in average annual recharge varied from an increase of 58% to a decrease of 6% relative to the 1961–2000 reference period. Such a large range in projected recharge provides very little useful information regarding the future state of groundwater resources. Additional results from recent comparable studies are compiled and discussed. Based on the results obtained from the present case study and the other studies reviewed, the limitations of current approaches for projecting future recharge are identified, and several suggestions for research opportunities to advance this field are offered.

Groundwater temperature is an important water quality parameter that affects species distributions in subsurface and surface environments. To investigate the response of subsurface temperature to atmospheric climate change, an analytical solution is derived for a one-dimensional, transient conduction–advection equation and verified with numerical methods using the finite element code SUTRA. The solution can be directly applied to forward model the impact of future climate change on subsurface temperature profiles or inversely applied to produce a surface temperature history from measured borehole profiles. The initial conditions are represented using superimposed linear and exponential functions, and the boundary condition is expressed as an exponential function. This solution expands on a classic solution in which the initial and boundary conditions were restricted to linear functions. The exponential functions allow more flexibility in matching climate model projections (boundary conditions) and measured temperature–depth profiles (initial conditions). For example, measured borehole temperature data from the Sendai Plain and Tokyo, Japan, were used to demonstrate the improved accuracy of the exponential function for replicating temperature–depth profiles. Also, the improved accuracy of the exponential boundary condition was demonstrated using air temperature anomaly data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. These air temperature anomalies were then used to forward model the effect of surficial thermal perturbations in subsurface environments with significant groundwater flow. The simulation results indicate that recharge can accelerate shallow subsurface warming, whereas upward groundwater discharge can enhance deeper subsurface warming. Additionally, the simulation results demonstrate that future groundwater temperatures obtained from the proposed analytical solution can deviate significantly from those produced with the classic solution. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.