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Understanding the impact of landscape patterns on ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for the design and management of ecological restoration programs. However, the impacts of landscape configuration on ES from a geospatial perspective have not been studied sufficiently. This study analyzed the landscape composition and pattern changes and quantified the changes in water yield, carbon storage, soil retention, water purification, and habitat quality under the Grain for Green Program (GFGP) from 2000 to 2020 in Kaihua County. The responses of ES to landscape patterns were revealed by geographic detector and geographically weighted regression models. The results showed that landscape fragmentation and diversity increased, and forest landscape area and aggregation increased because of the GFGP implementation. Water yield declined with the decrease in the mean patch area of the landscape, while other ES improved due to the increase in Shannon's diversity index and largest patch index. The interspersion and juxtaposition of cropland and forest land played an important role in improving ES under the GFGP. In addition, some ES may be closely related to natural factors and connection to landscape patterns, such as soil retention and topography, water yield and precipitation, but this response to landscape pattern changes was captured due to the subjective nature of the GFGP. The results can provide scientific guidance for forest landscape restoration to better improve ES. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the threshold for the response of ecosystem services (ESs) to vegetation change is critical for ecological restoration, and once the threshold is exceeded, ESs may be inhibited. Vegetation type and altitude are important factors affecting ESs. However, the nonlinear effects of vegetation change on ESs and their threshold under different vegetation types and altitude gradients are not clear. This study selected the Sichuan-Yunnan ecological shelter as the study area. Four ESs (water yield (WY), carbon storage (CS), soil conservation (SC), and water purification (WP)) were quantified by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs model. The differences in ESs among different vegetation types were identified. Variance analysis was used to explore the spatial differences in ESs under different altitude gradients. The inflection point of the promoting effect of vegetation cover on ESs was taken as the threshold, and elastic analysis was used to determine the impact threshold of fractional vegetation cover (FVC) on ESs. The threshold represents the inflection point at which vegetation cover promotes ESs. The results showed that the CS, SC, and WP of the natural forest were higher than those of the plantation, while the WY was lower than that of the plantation. WY, CS, and SC remained higher in the high-altitude regions, while nitrogen export was higher in the low-altitude regions. FVC was positively correlated with nitrogen export in the low-altitude regions and negatively correlated with WY in the high-altitude regions. FVC had a promoting effect on ESs, and the promoting effect was weakened beyond the threshold. The thresholds of FVC promoting ESs were 0.86, 0.79, 0.85, and 0.83 in natural forest, shrub, plantation, and grassland, respectively. The threshold of FVC promoting ESs in low-altitude regions was larger than that in high-altitude regions. This study can provide a theoretical basis for large-scale ecological management and moderate restoration. [Display omitted] • Supply capacity of ESs among separate vegetation types was identified. • Spatial differences in vegetation types and ESs at different altitudes were explored. • A framework was proposed for determining the impact threshold of FVC on ESs. • Impact threshold of FVC on ESs varied with vegetation type and altitude. • This framework can act as reference for multi-scale vegetation restoration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Ecosystem services differed for different vegetation types. • Ecosystem services and vegetation types have large spatial heterogeneity. • Organic agriculture and mixed forest are sustainable measures. • The priority conservation areas were determined by using OWA method. • The framework can provide reference for vegetation protection and management. Natural vegetation plays a vital role in ecosystem services, while anthropogenic land-use change causes extensive damage to natural vegetation, decreasing ecosystem services, and impacting human well-being. Therefore, it is of great significance to establish protected areas and implement vegetation protection measures. Ecosystem services depend on the vegetation type and terrain, but this topic has not been considered in detail in policy implementations. In this study, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model was used to evaluate water yield, carbon storage, soil conservation, and water purification in the Chuan-Dian ecological shelter. Statistical methods were applied to analyze the differences in ecosystem services of different vegetation types and determine spatial variations in ecosystem services along terrain (altitude, slope, landform relief, and terrain niche) gradients. The results showed that ecosystem services differed for different vegetation types, and natural forests provided higher ecosystem services than other vegetation types, except for water yield. The rational allocation of forests, shrubs, and grasses and the implementation of organic agriculture and agroforestry systems are important measures to ensure sustainable economic and ecological development. We used the ordered weighted average method to select priority conservation areas based on ecosystem services. The priority conservation areas can play an important role in vegetation management in mountainous regions. This study provides new perspectives for vegetation protection and sustainable development in large-scale mountain areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Water-related ecosystem services were evaluated under four LULC scenarios and two climate scenarios. • The RCP4.5 scenario reduced water yield, while the RCP8.5 scenario increased water yield. • Climate change will be the major driver of water yield. • Land use/cover change will be the major driver of water purification. • The returning farmland to lakes scenario reduced water yield but increased water purification. Climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes alter ecosystem services that directly and indirectly affect human well-being. The impacts of management scenarios and different climate scenarios on water-related ecosystem services are uncertain in the context of future LULC and climate change interactions. Therefore, here, we analyzed the impact of future climate change and land management scenarios on water-related ecosystem services by 2030 in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ). Water yield and water purification were modelled for 2030, and the models were built on LULC scenarios and climate scenarios by using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services Trade-offs (InVEST) model. We used the Beijing Normal University Earth system model (BNU-ESM) for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, and we simulated four LULC scenarios using the future LULC simulation (FLUS) model. Four 2030 LULC scenarios, including rapid urbanization (RUS), farmland protection (FPS), ecological protection (EPS), and returning farmland to lakes scenario (RLS), were designed and compared with the year 2015 as the baseline. We found that the water yield of each LULC scenario under RCP4.5 had a decreasing trend: 10.41% (RUS), 12.43% (FPS), 13.69% (EPS), and 13.83% (RLS). However, the water yield increased under RCP8.5 and were 5.92%, 3.77%, 2.35%, and 2.18%, respectively. Water purification increased more in all LULC scenarios under the RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5. The water purification of all land-use scenarios from small to large was FPS, RUS, EPS, and RLS. Our results indicated that climate change had a greater impact than LULC on water yield, but LULC change had a greater impact on water purification. Our results provide scientific guidance for decision makers to develop better LULC policies to achieve sustainable water resource management in watershed-dominated regions. The integrated assessment approach to climate and land management also applies to other conditions to help achieve sustainable management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Urbanization was divided into three different stages according to change in urban land. • Changes in wetland and ESs in different urbanization stages were detected. • Urbanization and wetland change had linear or nonlinear effects on variations in ESs. • Different ESs showed varied responses to urbanization and wetland change. • Wetland restoration has the potential to eliminate the negative effects of urbanization. Urbanization has had a profound impact on wetlands, and wetland conservation and restoration have attracted much attention. However, the detailed impacts of different urbanization and wetland changing processes on ecosystem services (ESs) are not well understood. Based on long-time series of remote sensing data (1990–2020), flood mitigation (FM), water purification (WP), carbon sequestration (CS), and biodiversity conservation (BC) were quantified in the Hang-Jia-Hu (HJH) region, China. According to the changing trend of urban land, the study period was divided into three urbanization stages: slow urbanization (1990–1998), rapid urbanization (1998–2013), and moderate urbanization (2013–2020). Regression analysis was used to explore the quantitative relationship between urbanization/wetland changes and ESs. The results showed that the urban land expansion rates in the slow urbanization, rapid urbanization, and moderate urbanization stages were 46.51 km2/yr, 100.62 km2/yr, and 70.87 km2/yr, respectively, and the corresponding wetland changing rates were 5.14 km2/yr, 19.54 km2/yr and −20.88 km2/yr, respectively. FM decreased in the slow and moderate urbanization stages and increased in the rapid urbanization stage, and WP increased in the slow and rapid urbanization stages and decreased in the moderate urbanization stage. Urbanization led to a decrease in FM, CS, and BC. Wetland restoration improved these ESs, while wetland loss caused a decline in multiple ESs in the slow and rapid urbanization stages. Wetland restoration partially offsets the negative effects of urbanization and wetland loss on ESs in the rapid urbanization stage. Urbanization and wetland changes have linear and nonlinear effects on ESs in different urbanization stages. Wetland restoration is an effective way to improve ESs in urbanization regions. This study can make an important contribution to sustainable wetland ecosystem development in urbanization regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The ERP has caused significant changes in the landscape pattern. • The impact of landscape patterns on WESs in different periods was assessed from a geospatial perspective. • Landscape composition has a greater impact on WESs than configuration. • PD and CONTAG are the main factors affecting WESs. Understanding the changes and drivers of water ecosystem services (WESs) can provide guidance for the management of ecological restoration programs (ERPs). This study analyzed the changes in WESs (water yield and water purification) and landscape patterns in the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ) from 2000 to 2020 and revealed the effect of landscape patterns on WESs in different periods (development priority and ecological priority) through a geographic detector (GD) and geographic weighted regression (GWR). During the development priority period, there was an increase in landscape diversity and aggregation, as well as a decrease in landscape fragmentation and complexity. Additionally, the area of water bodies landscape decreased while the aggregation of cropland and built-up land increased. In contrast, during the ecological priority period, landscape diversity, fragmentation, and complexity increased, while landscape aggregation decreased. The water body area also increased, and cropland fragmentation increased. Water yield experienced an initial decrease and subsequent increase, while water purification continued to improve. Patch density and the contagion index are the main factors affecting WESs, and the improvement of water connectivity and the reduction of fragmented Landscape are of great significance to WESs. This study analyzed the impact of landscape pattern changes on WESs from a geospatial perspective and provided a reference for the sustainable development of ERPs in the JHEEZ. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Considering ecosystem service trade-offs to identify ecological sources. • OWA was used to set up multiple ecological source scenarios. • Circuit theory was used to constructed an ecological security pattern. • Results can provide implications for ecosystem security in fast-growing cities. A well-constructed ecological security pattern (ESP) can promote linkages between ecological sources, mitigate the degradation of ecosystems, and facilitate sustainable urban development. However, when determining the ecological sources for ESPs, previous studies have less frequently or insufficiently considered the ecosystem service trade-offs. Our research aims to fill this research gap to improve the assessment of ESPs. Through a case study in a rapidly urbanizing region—the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone in China—we demonstrate the application possibilities of the proposed framework. Ecosystem services in the study area were evaluated using the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs model, ecological sources were screened using the ordered weighted averaging method; then, an ESP was constructed using the minimum cumulative resistance model and circuit theory. The results indicated that crop production and water purification were higher in the east and lower in the west, while the water yield showed the opposite trend. Habitat quality and carbon storage were higher in the south and lower in the north. Eleven scenarios were set to determine ecological sources based on ecosystem service trade-offs. By comparing service efficiency, scenario 5 was selected as our optimal scenario, and the service efficiencies of ecological sources for crop production, water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage and water purification were 1.35, 1.15, 1.21, 1.06 and 0.92, respectively. There were no significant ecological sources in the developed eastern and central regions due to rapid urbanization and drastic land use changes in the area. There were 31 major ecological sources located in the western and northwestern parts of the study area, where water bodies and wetlands were well developed. There was a total of 70 ecological corridors in the study area, with 53 key ecological corridors. Based on these results, we proposed three measures to improve the sustainability of ecosystems to cope with the rapid urbanization while providing ecological quality. This study can provide implications for ecosystem security in other fast-growing cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Implementing the policy of returning farmland to lakes (RFL) led to land use/land cover (LULC) changes and affected ecosystem service trade-offs. Consequently, the implementation intensity of RFL has become an important issue. The LULC of the Jianghuai Ecological Economic Zone (JHEEZ) has transformed significantly because of the implementation of RFL. In this study, we simulated the LULC change of the JHEEZ in 2030 and then analyzed the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services under four RFL intensity scenarios. Our results showed that water yield first increased and then decreased, and crop production decreased; in contrast, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification continuously increased. The levels of the five ecosystem services were most balanced in the mild RFL scenario. In this scenario, water yield and crop production decreased by 0.46% and 5.95%, respectively. In contrast, carbon storage, habitat quality, and water purification increased by 0.35%, 3.49% and 3.20%, respectively. Under the moderate and strong RFL scenarios, increases in regulation services were at the expense of significant reductions in supply services. In all RFL scenarios, carbon storage, habitat quality and water purification increased in synergy, except for natural RFL scenarios. These three ecosystem services were in a trade-off relationship with water yield and crop production. However, under the natural RFL scenario, water yield was synergistic with these three ecosystem services. Therefore, the implementation of RFL may enhance ecosystem service trade-offs. Our results reveal the impact of different intensities of RFL on ecosystem service trade-offs and suggest that the intensity of RFL implementation should be factored into policy making and ecosystem management. This study can provide a useful reference for decision makers to choose the optimal restoration intensity of lake and wetland. • Four returning farmland to lakes scenarios were designed and their impacts on ecosystem services were quantified. • Trade-offs among ecosystem services were simulated under four returning farmland to lakes scenarios. • Ecosystem services were most balanced in the mild returning farmland to lakes scenario. • The implementation intensity of returning farmland to lakes should be focused in policy making and ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]