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Hydraulic fracturing (HF) is commonly used to enhance onshore recovery of oil and gas during production. This process involves the use of a variety of chemicals to support the physical extraction of oil and gas, maintain appropriate conditions downhole (e.g., redox conditions, pH), and limit microbial growth. The diversity of chemicals used in HF presents a significant challenge for risk assessment. The objective of the present study is to establish a transparent, reproducible procedure for estimating 5th percentile acute aquatic hazard concentrations (e.g., acute hazard concentration 5th percentiles [HC5s]) for these substances and validating against existing toxicity data. A simplified, grouped target site model (gTSM) was developed using a database (n = 1696) of diverse compounds with known mode of action (MoA) information. Statistical significance testing was employed to reduce model complexity by combining 11 discrete MoAs into three general hazard groups. The new model was trained and validated using an 80:20 allocation of the experimental database. The gTSM predicts toxicity using a combination of target site water partition coefficients and hazard group-based critical target site concentrations. Model performance was comparable to the original TSM using 40% fewer parameters. Model predictions were judged to be sufficiently reliable and the gTSM was further used to prioritize a subset of reported Permian Basin HF substances for risk evaluation. The gTSM was applied to predict hazard groups, species acute toxicity, and acute HC5s for 186 organic compounds (neutral and ionic). Toxicity predictions and acute HC5 estimates were validated against measured acute toxicity data compiled for HF substances. This case study supports the gTSM as an efficient, cost-effective computational tool for rapid aquatic hazard assessment of diverse organic chemicals. Environ Toxicol Chem 2024;43:1161-1172. © 2024 ExxonMobil Petroleum and Chemical BV. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC., (© 2024 ExxonMobil Petroleum and Chemical BV. Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of SETAC.)

A database of 1480 chemicals with 47 associated modes of action compiled from the literature encompasses a wide range of chemical classes (alkanes, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, pesticides, and polar compounds) and includes toxicity data for 79 different aquatic genera. The data were split into a calibration group and a validation group (80/20) to apply k-nearest neighbors (k-NN) methodology to predict the toxic mode of action for the compound. Other approaches were tested (support vector machines and linear discriminant analysis) as well as variations in the k-NN technique (distance weighting, feature weighting). Best-prediction results were found with k = 3, in a voting platform with optimized feature weighting. Using the predicted mode of action, the appropriate polyparameter target site model for that mode of action is applied to calculate the 50% lethal concentration (LC50). Predicted LC50s for the validation database resulted in a root-mean squared error (RMSE) of 0.752. This can be compared to an RMSE of 0.655 for the same validation set using the reference mode of action labels. The complete database resulted in an RMSE of 0.793 for reference mode of action labels. This confirms that the classification model has sufficient accuracy for predicting the mode of action and for determining toxicity using the target site model. Environ Toxicol Chem 2019;38:375-386. © 2018 SETAC., (© 2018 SETAC.)