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This paper studies the relative importance of societal drivers and changing climate on anthropogenic nutrient inputs to the Baltic Sea. Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways are extended at temporal and spatial scales relevant for the most contributing sectors. Extended socioeconomic and climate scenarios are then used as inputs for spatially and temporally detailed models for population and land use change, and their subsequent impact on nutrient loading is computed. According to the model simulations, several factors of varying influence may either increase or decrease total nutrient loads. In general, societal drivers outweigh the impacts of changing climate. Food demand is the most impactful driver, strongly affecting land use and nutrient loads from agricultural lands in the long run. In order to reach the good environmental status of the Baltic Sea, additional nutrient abatement efforts should focus on phosphorus rather than nitrogen. Agriculture is the most important sector to be addressed under the conditions of gradually increasing precipitation in the region and increasing global demand for food. Unlabelled Image • We provide plausible projections for nutrient pollution to the Baltic Sea until 2100. • Projected overall nutrient loads at 2100 range from 52% to 115% of the initial levels. • Changing society outweighs climate change in the effects on nutrient loading. • Projections of nutrient loading are most sensitive to changes in agriculture. • Combatting eutrophication should focus on reducing phosphorus loads to the Baltic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]