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A volcanic eruption is usually preceded by seismic precursors, but their interpretation and use for forecasting the eruption onset time remain a challenge. A part of the eruptive processes in open conduits of volcanoes may be similar to those encountered in geysers. Since geysers erupt more often, they are useful sites for testing new forecasting methods. We tested the application of Permutation Entropy (PE) as a robust method to assess the complexity in seismic recordings of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Strokkur features several minute‐long eruptive cycles, enabling us to verify in 63 recorded cycles whether PE behaves consistently from one eruption to the next one. We performed synthetic tests to understand the effect of different parameter settings in the PE calculation. Our application to Strokkur shows a distinct, repeating PE pattern consistent with previously identified phases in the eruptive cycle. We find a systematic increase in PE within the last 15 s before the eruption, indicating that an eruption will occur. We quantified the predictive power of PE, showing that PE performs better than seismic signal strength or quiescence when it comes to forecasting eruptions. Plain Language Summary: When a volcano shows the first sign of activity, it is challenging to determine whether and when the actual eruption will occur. Usually, researchers create earthquake lists and locate these events to assess this. However, an alternative and simpler method can be directly applied to continuous seismic data. We tested a method that assesses the complexity of signals. We first created synthetic data to find reasonable parameter settings for this method. While volcanoes do not erupt very often, frequent eruptions at geysers allow us to systematically study and compare several eruptions. We analyzed the continuous record of 63 eruptions of the Strokkur geyser, Iceland. Our results show a distinct pattern that repeats from one eruption to the next one. We also find a clear pattern that indicates about 15 s before the next eruption that an eruption will occur. We show that this method performs better in eruption forecasting than assessing the seismic noise or silence caused by the geyser. Key Points: Permutation Entropy (PE) is a simple tool to assess the complexity of a time seriesWe analyzed the PE evolution for 63 eruptive cycles of Strokkur geyser and found characteristic changes in PE during rechargePE is found to be an useful statistical predictor of the eruption times and highlights the precursor 15 s before eruptions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic data have been used to catalog the location and volume of most of the rockfalls that occurred at the Piton de la Fournaise volcano from May 2007, just after the major collapse of the Dolomieu summit crater floor, to May 2011. This catalog made it possible to compare the evolution of the number and volume of rockfalls at a high temporal resolution and to investigate their links with eruptions, seismicity, deformations and rainfalls affecting the Piton de la Fournaise volcano. Results show that the purge of unstable areas created by the Dolomieu crater floor collapse occurred in two phases: a first phase, lasting three months, during which the intense rockfall activity immediately following the collapse decreased abruptly and a second phase, lasting more than two years, during which the daily volume of the rockfalls slowly decreased before reaching a steady state. A detailed study of 4 time periods, including 3 eruptive cycles, indicates that strong seismicity can increase the number of rockfalls. Furthermore, when a dike reaches the surface at the summit of the central cone, giving birth to an eruption, the associated local forcing can in some cases increase the volume of rockfalls, possibly by creating or expanding weak zones. In most cases, this is not observed for dike intrusions that do not reach the surface. The newly created weak zones are most often far from the eruptive fissures of the ongoing eruption, but close to the location of the next eruption. This suggests that these distant zones are also weakened at depth, thus creating preferred paths for future dikes propagating toward the surface. The impact of rainfall on rockfall activity was also studied, given that La Réunion Island is subject to very intense rainfall events. Our results show that rainfall can in some cases trigger rockfalls rapidly, with response times of less than a day, but not systematically, and no triggering rainfall threshold was found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior to many volcanic eruptions, an acceleration in seismicity has been observed, suggesting the potential for this as a forecasting tool. The Failure Forecast Method (FFM) relates an accelerating precursor to the timing of failure by an empirical power law, with failure being defined in this context as the onset of an eruption. Previous applications of the FFM have used a wide variety of accelerating time series, often generating questionable forecasts with large misfits between data and the forecast, as well as the generation of a number of different forecasts from the same data series. Here, we show an alternative approach applying the FFM in combination with a cross correlation technique which identifies seismicity from a single active source mechanism and location at depth. Isolating a single system at depth avoids additional uncertainties introduced by averaging data over a number of different accelerating phenomena, and consequently reduces the misfit between the data and the forecast. Similar seismic waveforms were identified in the precursory accelerating seismicity to dome collapses at Soufrière Hills volcano, Montserrat in June 1997, July 2003 and February 2010. These events were specifically chosen since they represent a spectrum of collapse scenarios at this volcano. The cross correlation technique generates a five-fold increase in the number of seismic events which could be identified from continuous seismic data rather than using triggered data, thus providing a more holistic understanding of the ongoing seismicity at the time. The use of similar seismicity as a forecasting tool for collapses in 1997 and 2003 greatly improved the forecasted timing of the dome collapse, as well as improving the confidence in the forecast, thereby outperforming the classical application of the FFM. We suggest that focusing on a single active seismic system at depth allows a more accurate forecast of some of the major dome collapses from the ongoing eruption at Soufrière Hills volcano, and provides a simple addition to the well-used methodology of the FFM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Magma is fed to a volcano through a complex “plumbing” system that involves not only shallow structures beneath the volcano edifice, but also deep structures and processes within the underlying crust and upper mantle. This paper summarizes seismic experiments carried out over many years at Gunung Merapi in Central Java. These have resolved the 3D seismic velocity structure of the Merapi edifice, and provided a 3D structural image of the lithosphere and subduction zone beneath Central Java. Earthquake locations reveal that with distance from the trench, the dip of the subducting slab steepens from nearly horizontal (0–150km), through 45° (150–250km), to 70° (>250km). The slab appears as a 30km thick double layer of seismicity in a depth range of 80km to 150km, and it can be identified seismically to a depth of more than 600km. The active volcanoes of Merapi, Sumbing, and Lawu are located at the edge of a large low velocity body that extends from the upper crust to the upper mantle beneath Central Java. Shear wave signals recorded above this anomaly are strongly attenuated compared to neighboring areas. The anomalous body has a detected volume of >50,000km3 and a decrease in P and S velocities relative to adjacent regions of up to 30%. The resulting Vp/Vs ratio of up to 1.9 is unusually high for lower crust. Additionally, the anomaly extends along a 45 degree-slope downward from beneath the volcanic arc and meets the slab at 100km depth. We interpret this sloping anomaly as a pathway for fluids and partial melts. Increased seismicity is observed at depths of ~100km, possibly as a result of dehydration of the subducting slab with related fluid releases causing partial melting of overlying mantle material. The large velocity reduction and high Vp/Vs ratio in the region are consistent with an increase in temperature, a reduction of shear strength, and the presence of fluids or melts of 13 to 25vol.%. The detected strong anomaly beneath Central Java is unique in size and amplitude compared to other subduction zones. The geophysical evidence suggests that this segment of the arc has a high magma flux and is thus capable of developing even larger shallow crustal reservoirs and more voluminous explosive eruptions in the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The link between seismicity and degassing is investigated during the VEI 4 eruptions of Merapi volcano (Indonesia) in October and in early November 2010. Seismicity comprised a large number and variety of earthquakes including Volcano-Tectonic events, a sustained period of Long Period Seismicity (LPS), i.e., Long-Period events (LP), Very Long Period events (VLP) and tremor. LPS seismicity is ascribed to the excitation of fluid-filled cavity resonance and inertial displacement of fluids and magma. We investigate here LPS that occurred between 17 October and 4 November 2010 to obtain insights into the volcano eruption processes which preceded the paroxysmal phase of the eruption on 4–5 November. We proceed to the moment tensor inversion of a well-recorded large VLP event during the intrusion phase on 17 October 2010, i.e., before the first explosion on 26 October. By using two simplified models (crack and pipe), we find a shallow source for this VLP event at about 1km to the south of the summit and less than 1km below the surface. We analyze more than 90 LP events that occurred during the multi-phase eruption (29 October–4 November). We show that most of them have a dominant frequency in the range 0.2–4Hz. We could locate 48 of those LP events; at least 3 clusters of LP events occurred successively. We interpret these observations as generated by different fluid-filled containers in the summit area that were excited while magma rose. We also observe significant variations of the complex frequency during the course of the eruption. We discuss these changes in terms of a variable ratio of fluid to solid densities and/or by possible conduit geometry change and/or permeability of the conduit or the edifice and/or by resonance of different fluid-containers during the release of more than 0.4Tg of SO2 and large but unknown masses of other volcanic gases. Finally, we also discuss how the major explosions of the eruption were possibly triggered by passing waves resulting from regional tectonic earthquakes on 3 and 4 November. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Merapi volcano (Indonesia) is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in the world. It is known for frequent small to moderate eruptions, pyroclastic flows produced by lava dome collapse, and the large population settled on and around the flanks of the volcano that is at risk. Its usual behavior for the last decades abruptly changed in late October and early November 2010, when the volcano produced its largest and most explosive eruptions in more than a century, displacing at least a third of a million people, and claiming nearly 400 lives. Despite the challenges involved in forecasting this ‘hundred year eruption’, we show that the magnitude of precursory signals (seismicity, ground deformation, gas emissions) was proportional to the large size and intensity of the eruption. In addition and for the first time, near-real-time satellite radar imagery played an equal role with seismic, geodetic, and gas observations in monitoring eruptive activity during a major volcanic crisis. The Indonesian Center of Volcanology and Geological Hazard Mitigation (CVGHM) issued timely forecasts of the magnitude of the eruption phases, saving 10,000–20,000 lives. In addition to reporting on aspects of the crisis management, we report the first synthesis of scientific observations of the eruption. Our monitoring and petrologic data show that the 2010 eruption was fed by rapid ascent of magma from depths ranging from 5 to 30km. Magma reached the surface with variable gas content resulting in alternating explosive and rapid effusive eruptions, and released a total of ~0.44Tg of SO2. The eruptive behavior seems also related to the seismicity along a tectonic fault more than 40km from the volcano, highlighting both the complex stress pattern of the Merapi region of Java and the role of magmatic pressurization in activating regional faults. We suggest a dynamic triggering of the main explosions on 3 and 4 November by the passing seismic waves generated by regional earthquakes on these days. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]