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The modelling, simulation and analysis methods in automotive development are in the process of transformation. Increasing system complexity, variant diversity and efforts to improve efficiency lead to more complex simulations and depend on virtual vehicle development, testing and approval across a large application area. Consequently, the new key requirements of modern validation involve more precise reliability quantification of large application areas, achieved with reasonable effort of cost and time. This paper identifies that the neglection of uncertainties, low information in validation results, low extrapolation capability and the resulting small application area are preventing the state-of-the-art validation meeting those new requirements. In an extensive analysis examining more than twenty frameworks in detail, this paper shows that statistical methods exhibit a high potential to remedy these four key insufficiencies. The paper justifies comprehensively that consistent statistical validation is necessary, important and crucial for precise reliability quantification, which enables accurate model selection, knowledge building and decision making in modern automotive vehicle-dynamics simulations. An example is given explaining the basic principle and benefit of consistent statistical validation. Since automotive statistical methods are still at the beginning, the aim is to enable further investigation by showing their potential and providing deeper knowledge about this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling and simulation process in the automotive domain is transforming. Increasing system complexity and variant diversity, especially in new electric powertrain systems, lead to complex, modular simulations that depend on virtual vehicle development, testing and approval. Consequently, the emerging key requirements for automotive validation involve a precise reliability quantification across a large application domain. Validation is unable to meet these requirements because its results provide little information, uncertainties are neglected, the model reliability cannot be easily extrapolated and the resulting application domain is small. In order to address these insufficiencies, this paper develops a statistical validation framework for dynamic systems with changing parameter configurations, thus enabling a flexible validation of complex total vehicle simulations including powertrain modelling. It uses non-deterministic models to consider input uncertainties, applies uncertainty learning to predict inherent model uncertainties and enables precise reliability quantification of arbitrary system parameter configurations to form a large application domain. The paper explains the framework with real-world data from a prototype electric vehicle on a dynamometer, validates it with additional tests and compares it to conventional validation methods. It is published as an open-source document. With the validation information from the framework and the knowledge deduced from the real-world problem, the paper solves its key requirements and offers recommendations on how to efficiently revise models with the framework's validation results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]