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The future trajectory of global forests is closely intertwined with tree demography, and a major fundamental goal in ecology is to understand the key mechanisms governing spatio‐temporal patterns in tree population dynamics. While previous research has made substantial progress in identifying the mechanisms individually, their relative importance among forests remains unclear mainly due to practical limitations. One approach to overcome these limitations is to group mechanisms according to their shared effects on the variability of tree vital rates and quantify patterns therein. We developed a conceptual and statistical framework (variance partitioning of Bayesian multilevel models) that attributes the variability in tree growth, mortality, and recruitment to variation in species, space, and time, and their interactions – categories we refer to as organising principles (OPs). We applied the framework to data from 21 forest plots covering more than 2.9 million trees of approximately 6500 species. We found that differences among species, the species OP, proved a major source of variability in tree vital rates, explaining 28–33% of demographic variance alone, and 14–17% in interaction with space, totalling 40–43%. Our results support the hypothesis that the range of vital rates is similar across global forests. However, the average variability among species declined with species richness, indicating that diverse forests featured smaller interspecific differences in vital rates. Moreover, decomposing the variance in vital rates into the proposed OPs showed the importance of unexplained variability, which includes individual variation, in tree demography. A focus on how demographic variance is organized in forests can facilitate the construction of more targeted models with clearer expectations of which covariates might drive a vital rate. This study therefore highlights the most promising avenues for future research, both in terms of understanding the relative contributions of groups of mechanisms to forest demography and diversity, and for improving projections of forest ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors in shaping forest biomass stocks and fluxes remains a controversial issue. Here, using data gathered from 39 1 ha plots located in flooded and terra firme mature tropical lowland forests of the Amazon and Orinoquia regions of Colombia, we evaluated the importance of climate, soil fertility, and flooding, as well as tree taxonomic/phylogenetic diversity and forest structural properties, in determining the aboveground biomass stocks (AGB; Mg ha−1) and aboveground woody productivity (AWP; Mg ha−1 year−1). Using information‐theoretic multimodel inference and variance partitioning we found that forest structural features such as the number of trees with diameter at breast height ≥ 70 cm, and wood density, are the main drivers of variation in AGB. However, taxonomic diversity also contributes to AGB because it is associated with more large trees in these forests. In contrast, the key drivers of AWP in these forests were soil P and Mg concentrations, with no significant effects of diversity indices. These findings emphasize the need to include major soil cations other than N and P (e.g. Mg) in experimental studies to improve our understanding about the extent to which soil fertility can modulate increases in forest AWP due to climate change. Terra firme forests had higher AGB stocks than flooded forests, but both had similar AWP; and we found similar results for the drivers of AGB and AWP between flooded and terra firme forests. Our results provide limited evidence for strong effects of plant diversity on AGB or AWP. Therefore, we call for caution on generalizations of nature‐based initiatives aiming to preserve diversity based on maximizing carbon stocks and productivity, due to the complex nature of the processes controlling carbon accumulation and carbon fluxes in tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]