1. Risk of COVID-19 after natural infection or vaccination
- Author
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Rick, Anne-Marie, Laurens, Matthew B, Huang, Ying, Yu, Chenchen, Martin, Thomas CS, Rodriguez, Carina A, Rostad, Christina A, Maboa, Rebone M, Baden, Lindsey R, Sahly, Hana M El, Grinsztejn, Beatriz, Gray, Glenda E, Gay, Cynthia L, Gilbert, Peter B, Janes, Holly E, Kublin, James G, Huang, Yunda, Leav, Brett, Hirsch, Ian, Struyf, Frank, Dunkle, Lisa M, Neuzil, Kathleen M, Corey, Lawrence, Goepfert, Paul A, Walsh, Stephen R, Follmann, Dean, Kotloff, Karen L, Adams, Atoya, Miller, Eric, Rankin, Bruce G, Shinn, Steven, Nash, Marshall, Green, Sinikka L, Jacobsen, Colleen, Krishnankutty, Jayasree, Phungwayo, Sikhongi, Glover, Richard M, Slechta, Stacy, Holdeman, Troy, Hartvickson, Robyn, Grant, Amber, Poling, Terry L, Klein, Terry D, Klein, Thomas C, Klein, Tracy R, Smith, William B, Gibson, Richard L, Winbigler, Jennifer, Parker, Elizabeth, Wijewardane, Priyantha N, Bravo, Eric, Thessing, Jeffrey, Maxwell, Michelle, Horn, Amanda, Healy, Catherine Mary, Akamine, Christine, Chu, Laurence, Chouteau, R Michelle, Cotugno, Michael J, Bauer, George H, Hachigian, Greg, Oshita, Masaru, Cancilla, Michael, Kiersey, Kristen, Seger, William, Antwi, Mohammed, Green, Allison, Kim, Anthony, Desjardins, Michael, Johnson, Jennifer A, Sherman, Amy, Borger, Judith, Saleem, Nafisa, Solis, Joel, Medina, Martha Carmen, Keating, Westly, Garcia, Edgar, Bueno, Cynthia, Segall, Nathan, Denham, Douglas S, Weiss, Thomas, Avworo, Ayoade, Hedges, Parke, Strout, Cynthia Becher, Santiago, Rica, Davis, Yvonne, Howenstine, Patty, Bondell, Alison, Marks, Kristin, Wang, Tina, Wilkin, Timothy, Vogler, Mary, Johnston, Carrie, Andrasik, Michele P, Andriesen, Jessica G, Broder, Gail, Eaton, Niles, Gelderblom, Huub G, and McClennen, Rachael
- Subjects
Biomedical and Clinical Sciences ,Clinical Sciences ,Vaccine Related ,Biotechnology ,Prevention ,Clinical Trials and Supportive Activities ,Immunization ,Clinical Research ,Emerging Infectious Diseases ,Infectious Diseases ,Coronaviruses ,6.1 Pharmaceuticals ,3.4 Vaccines ,Infection ,Good Health and Well Being ,Humans ,COVID-19 ,COVID-19 Vaccines ,Pandemics ,SARS-CoV-2 ,United States ,Vaccination ,Natural infection ,Hybrid immunity ,NIAID-funded COVID-19 Prevention Network ,natural infection ,hybrid immunity ,vaccination ,Public Health and Health Services ,Clinical sciences ,Epidemiology - Abstract
BackgroundWhile vaccines have established utility against COVID-19, phase 3 efficacy studies have generally not comprehensively evaluated protection provided by previous infection or hybrid immunity (previous infection plus vaccination). Individual patient data from US government-supported harmonized vaccine trials provide an unprecedented sample population to address this issue. We characterized the protective efficacy of previous SARS-CoV-2 infection and hybrid immunity against COVID-19 early in the pandemic over three-to six-month follow-up and compared with vaccine-associated protection.MethodsIn this post-hoc cross-protocol analysis of the Moderna, AstraZeneca, Janssen, and Novavax COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials, we allocated participants into four groups based on previous-infection status at enrolment and treatment: no previous infection/placebo; previous infection/placebo; no previous infection/vaccine; and previous infection/vaccine. The main outcome was RT-PCR-confirmed COVID-19 >7-15 days (per original protocols) after final study injection. We calculated crude and adjusted efficacy measures.FindingsPrevious infection/placebo participants had a 92% decreased risk of future COVID-19 compared to no previous infection/placebo participants (overall hazard ratio [HR] ratio: 0.08; 95% CI: 0.05-0.13). Among single-dose Janssen participants, hybrid immunity conferred greater protection than vaccine alone (HR: 0.03; 95% CI: 0.01-0.10). Too few infections were observed to draw statistical inferences comparing hybrid immunity to vaccine alone for other trials. Vaccination, previous infection, and hybrid immunity all provided near-complete protection against severe disease.InterpretationPrevious infection, any hybrid immunity, and two-dose vaccination all provided substantial protection against symptomatic and severe COVID-19 through the early Delta period. Thus, as a surrogate for natural infection, vaccination remains the safest approach to protection.FundingNational Institutes of Health.
- Published
- 2023