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Background: High-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV)-based cervical cancer screening in the Netherlands led to a substantial increase in number of colposcopy referrals and low-grade lesions detected. Genotyping strategies may be employed to lower the screening-related burden., Methods: We evaluated 14 triage strategies with genotyping (HPV16/18 or HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58) for hrHPV-positive borderlineormilddyskaryosis (BMD)ornormal cytology,usingdata from a population-based hrHPV-based screening trial with 5-year interval (POBASCAM). We considered colposcopy referral at baseline, after 6-month repeat cytology and after 5-year hrHPV testing. Performance was evaluated by one-round positive and negative predictive value (PPVandNPV) for CIN3+ and by two-roundcolposcopy referral rate. To identify efficient strategies, they were ordered by the one-round colposcopy referral rate. Adjacent strategies were compared by the marginal PPV for detecting one additional CIN3+ (mPPV)., Results: The most conservative strategy (repeat cytology after BMD and HPV16/18/31/33/45/52/58-positive normal cytology, next round otherwise) yielded an mPPV of 28%, NPV of 98.2%, and two-round colposcopy referral rate of 47.2%. Adding direct referral after BMD or genotype-positive BMD yielded an mPPV ≤ 8.2%, NPV ≥ 98.5% and an increase in colposcopy referral rate of 1.9% to 6.5%. Adding direct referral after HPV16/18-positive normal cytology yielded an mPPV ≤ 3.5%, NPV ≥ 99.5% and an increase in colposcopy referral rate of 13.9%., Conclusions: Direct colposcopy referral of women with BMD or normal cytology is unlikely to be efficient, but genotype-guided direct referral after BMD may be considered because the increase in colposcopies is limited., Impact: hrHPV screening programs can become very efficient when immediate colposcopy referral is limited to women at highest CIN3+ risk. See related In the Spotlight, p. 979., (©2024 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: Cervical cancer is a major public health problem in India, where access to prevention programmes is low. The WHO-Strategic Advisory Group of Experts recently updated their recommendation for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to include a single-dose option in addition to the two-dose option, which could make HPV vaccination programmes easier to implement and more affordable., Methods: We combined projections from a type-specific HPV transmission model and a cancer progression model to assess the health and economic effects of HPV vaccination at national and state level in India. The models used national and state-specific Indian demographic, epidemiological and cost data, and single-dose vaccine efficacy and immunogenicity data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer India vaccine trial with 10-year follow-up. We compared single-dose and two-dose HPV vaccination for a range of plausible scenarios regarding single-dose vaccine protection, coverage and catch-up. We used a healthcare sector payer perspective with a time horizon of 100 years., Results: Under the base-case scenario of lifelong protection of single-dose vaccination in 10-year-old girls with 90% coverage, the discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of nationwide vaccination relative to no vaccination was US$406 (₹INR30 000) per DALY (disability-adjusted life-years) averted. This lay below an opportunity-cost-based threshold of 30% Indian gross domestic product per capita in each Indian state (state-specific ICER range: US$67-US$593 per DALY averted). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus no vaccination vaccination was US$1404 (₹INR104 000). The ICER of two-dose vaccination versus single-dose vaccination, assuming lower initial efficacy and waning of single-dose vaccination, was at least US$2282 (₹INR169 000) per DALY averted., Conclusions: Nationwide introduction of single-dose HPV vaccination at age 10 in India is highly likely to be cost-effective whereas extending the number of doses from one to two would have a less favourable profile., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JB has received support to his institution from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO) outside the submitted work. All other authors have no conflicts of interests to declare., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2023. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: The first HPV-vaccine eligible cohorts in the Netherlands will enter the cervical screening program in 2023. However, a substantial number of young women already have had a cervical sample taken before entry into the regular screening program. This study was initiated to explore early effects of HPV vaccination on detection of cytological abnormalities in cervical samples of women younger than the screening age., Methods: Results of cervical samples were obtained from the Dutch National Pathology Databank (PALGA) and were linked to the women's HPV vaccination status from the national vaccination registry (Praeventis) (N = 42,171). Occurrence of low-grade and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions or worse (LSIL and HSIL+) and high-risk HPV positive tests (hrHPV) in the first cervical sample were compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated women by multivariable logistic regression analysis, corrected for age at cervical sampling and age of vaccination (12/13 years, ≥ = 14 years)., Results: For fully vaccinated women (three- or two-dose schedule), statistically significant reductions were seen for all outcomes compared to unvaccinated women (hrHPV: adjusted OR, 0.70, 95% CI, 0.63-0.79; LSIL: 0.70, 0.61-0.80; HSIL+: 0.39, 0.30-0.51)., Conclusions: By linking nation-wide registries on pathology and vaccination, we show significant beneficial early effects of HPV-vaccination on LSIL, HSIL+, CIN3/AIS/carcinoma and hrHPV detection in young women upto 24 years of age who have a cervical sample taken before entry into the cervical cancer screening program., (© 2023 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Little is known about the long-term association between high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) test results in women participating in a hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening program. To address this question, we collected data of 2217 women who participated in the POBASCAM hrHPV-based screening trial (enrolment 1999/2002) and also attended the Dutch hrHPV-based screening program between January 2017 and March 2018. Among 143 women who tested hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002, 45 (31.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 17 (11.9%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. In comparison, among 2074 women who tested hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002, 10 (0.5%) had ≥ CIN2 or hysterectomy before 2017 and 119 (5.7%) tested hrHPV-positive at the 2017/2018 screen. It follows that in the group of women who were not treated for ≥ CIN2 or had a hysterectomy in between the two screens 15 years apart (N = 2162), women who were hrHPV-positive in 1999/2002 had a higher risk of being hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 than those who were hrHPV-negative in 1999/2002 (OR 3.4, 95% CI 1.8-6.1). A similar association was found at the genotype level for genotype-concordant results (5.1, 1.0-11.3) and for genotype non-concordant results (3.7, 1.6-6.7). Women who were hrHPV-positive in 2017/2018 had a higher risk of CIN3 after a hrHPV-positive result in 1999/2002 than after a hrHPV-negative result (5.8, 1.0-27.8). In conclusion, a positive hrHPV result in screening gives a long-term increased risk of a hrHPV-positive result, also for different genotypes, and a long-term increased risk of CIN3. This supports the concept of risk-stratification in hrHPV-based cervical cancer screening where previous hrHPV results are included in screening recommendations., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest CJLMM and DAMH declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: CJLMM is minority shareholder and part-time CEO of Self-screen B.V., a spin-off company of Amsterdam UMC, location VUMC, which develops, manufactures and licenses high-risk HPV assays and methylation marker assays for cervical cancer screening and holds patents on these tests. CJLMM formerly had a small number of shares of Qiagen and MDXHealth. He has received consultancy fees from GlaxoSmithKline, Qiagen, Sanofi Pasteur MSD/Merck, and Asieris/Ismar Healthcare NV, and served occasionally on the scientific advisory boards (expert meetings) of these companies. DAMH is minority shareholder of Self-screen B.V. The other authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Despite the high burden of cervical cancer, access to preventive measures remains low in India. A single-dose immunisation schedule could facilitate the scale-up of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, contributing to global elimination of cervical cancer. We projected the effect of single-dose quadrivalent HPV vaccination in India in comparison with no vaccination or to a two-dose schedule., Methods: In this modelling study, we adapted an HPV transmission model (EpiMetHeos) to Indian data on sexual behaviour (from the Demographic and Health Survey and the Indian National AIDS Control Organisation), HPV prevalence data (from two local surveys, from the states of Tamil Nadu and West Bengal), and cervical cancer incidence data (from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents for the period 2008-12 [volume XI], and the Indian National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research for the period 2012-16). Using the model, we projected the nationwide and state-specific effect of HPV vaccination on HPV prevalence and cervical cancer incidence, and lifetime risk of cervical cancer, for 100 years after the introduction of vaccination or in the first 50 vaccinated birth cohorts. Projections were derived under a two-dose vaccination scenario assuming life-long protection and under a single-dose vaccination scenario with protection duration assumptions derived from International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) India vaccine trial data, in combination with different vaccination coverages and catch-up vaccination age ranges. We used two thresholds to define cervical cancer elimination: an age-standardised incidence rate of less than 4 cases per 100 000 woman-years, and standardised lifetime risk of less than 250 cases per 100 000 women born., Findings: Assuming vaccination in girls aged 10 years, with 90% coverage, and life-long protection by two-dose or single-dose schedule, HPV vaccination could reduce the prevalence of HPV16 and HPV18 infection by 97% (80% UI 96-99) in 50 years, and the lifetime risk of cervical cancer by 71-78% from 1067 cases per 100 000 women born under a no vaccination scenario to 311 (80% UI 284-339) cases per 100 000 women born in the short term and 233 (219-252) cases per 100 000 women born in the long term in vaccinated cohorts. Under this scenario, we projected that the age-standardised incidence rate threshold for elimination could be met across India (range across Indian states: 1·6 cases [80% UI 1·5-1·7] to 4·0 cases [3·8-4·4] per 100 000 woman-years), while the complementary threshold based on standardised lifetime risk was attainable in 17 (68%) of 25 states, but not nationwide (range across Indian states: 207 cases [80% UI 194-223] to 477 cases [447-514] per 100 000 women born). Under the considered assumptions of waning vaccine protection, single-dose vaccination was projected to have a 21-100% higher per-dose efficiency than two-dose vaccination. Single-dose vaccination with catch-up for girls and women aged 11-20 years was more impactful than two-dose vaccination without catch-up, with reduction of 39-65% versus 38% in lifetime risk of cervical cancer across the ten catch-up birth cohorts and the first ten routine vaccination birth cohorts., Interpretation: Our evidence-based projections suggest that scaling up cervical cancer prevention through single-dose HPV vaccination could substantially reduce cervical cancer burden in India., Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests JB has received support to his institution from IARC/WHO outside of the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (© 2022 World Health Organization; licensee Elsevier. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 3.0 IGO license which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. In any use of this article, there should be no suggestion that WHO endorses any specific organisation, products or services. The use of the WHO logo is not permitted. This notice should be preserved along with the article's original URL.)

Birth cohorts vaccinated against human papillomavirus (HPV) are now entering cervical cancer screening. Assessment of (pre)cancer (CIN3+) risk is needed to assess the residual screening need in vaccinated women. We estimated the lifetime (screen-detected) CIN3+ risk under five-yearly primary HPV screening between age 30 and 60, using HPV genotyping and histology data of 21,287 women participating in a screening trial with two HPV-based screening rounds, 5 years apart. The maximum follow-up after an HPV-positive test was 9 years. We re-estimated the CIN3+ risk after projecting direct vaccine efficacy for the bivalent and the nonavalent HPV vaccines, assuming life-long protection. The lifetime CIN3+ risk was 4.1% (95% confidence interval 3.5-4.9) and declined by 53.5% and 70.5% after bivalent vaccination without and with cross-protection, respectively, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 1.9% (1.4-2.4) and 1.2% (0.9-1.5). The CIN3+ risk declined by 88.5% after nonavalent vaccination, translating into a residual lifetime CIN3+ risk of 0.5% (0.2-0.7). The latter risk increased to 1.6% when vaccine protection only lasted until the first screening round at age 30. Among HPV-positive women with abnormal adjunct cytology, the nine-year CIN3+ risk was 16.9% (8.7-32.4) after nonavalent vaccination. In conclusion, HPV vaccination will lead to a strong decline in the lifetime CIN3+ risk and the remaining absolute CIN3+ risk will be very low. Primary HPV testing combined with adjunct cytology at five-year intervals still seems feasible even after nonavalent vaccination, although unlikely to be cost-effective. Our results support a de-intensification of screening programs in settings with high vaccination coverage., (© 2020 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Union for International Cancer Control.)

Background: In many European countries, human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine uptake among girls has remained below target levels, supporting the scope for vaccination of boys. We aimed to investigate if sex-neutral HPV vaccination can be considered cost-effective compared with girls-only vaccination at uptake levels equal to those among girls and under tender-based vaccination costs achieved throughout Europe., Methods: We investigated the cost-effectiveness of sex-neutral HPV vaccination in European tender-based settings. We applied a Bayesian synthesis framework for health economic evaluation to 11 countries (Austria, Belgium, Croatia, Estonia, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Poland, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden), accommodating country-specific information on key epidemiological and economic parameters, and on current HPV vaccination programmes. We used projections from three independently developed HPV transmission models to tailor region-specific herd effects. The main outcome measures in the comparison of sex-neutral with girls-only vaccination were cancer cases prevented and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), defined as the cost in international dollars (I$) per life-year gained., Findings: The total number of cancer cases to be prevented by vaccinating girls at currently realised vaccine uptake varied from 318 (95% CI 197-405) per cohort of 200 000 preadolescents (100 000 girls plus 100 000 boys) in Croatia (under 20% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine) to 1904 (1741-2101) in Estonia (under 70% uptake of the 9-valent vaccine). Vaccinating boys at equal coverage increased these respective numbers by 168 (95% CI 121-213) in Croatia and 467 (391-587) in Estonia. Sex-neutral vaccination was likely to be cost-effective, with ICERs of sex-neutral compared with girls-only vaccination varying from I$4300 per life-year gained in Latvia (95% credibility interval 3450-5160; 40% uptake) to I$25 720 per life-year gained in Spain (21 380-30 330; 80% uptake). At uniform 80% uptake, a favourable cost-effectiveness profile was retained for most of the countries investigated (Austria, Belgium, Italy, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden)., Interpretation: Sex-neutral HPV vaccination is economically attractive in European tender-based settings. However, tendering mechanisms need to ensure that vaccination of boys will remain cost-effective at high vaccine uptake rates., Funding: European Commission 7th Framework Programme and WHO., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Genotype attribution in high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+) can be calculated by the hierarchical or proportional method, but these do not account for the genotype distribution in the general population and cannot assess the number of genotype-specific high-grade cervical lesions (CIN3+)., Methods: We present a statistical method for estimating genotype-specific CIN3+ risks and genotype attribution in CIN3+ from cervical screening samples. A key assumption is that genotype-specific infections in women with multiple infections have independent progression risks. We applied the method to 512 human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive women referred for colposcopy and validated it by laser-capture microscopy-polymerase chain reaction. We also compared performance by simulation., Results: For endpoint CIN3+, the summed deviation of attributable fractions between the estimated genotype-specific attributable fractions and laser-capture microscopy polymerase chain reaction-based attributable fractions was similar for the three methods: 0.17 for the new method (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.091, 0.28), 0.19 (95% CI = 0.11, 0.33) for the hierarchical method and 0.15 (95% CI = 0.085, 0.26) for the proportional method. Simulations indicated that the new method outperformed the other methods for endpoint CIN3+ when the number of HPV-positive women was large. Exclusion of HPV16-positive women had only a small effect on the estimated genotype-specific risks, supporting the independence assumption., Conclusions: Genotype-specific attribution in CIN3+ can be accurately predicted by a model that assumes independence between genotypes with respect to disease progression. The method can be used to monitor HPV vaccine effectiveness for prevention of genotype-specific CIN3+ and to assess disease risk after vaccination.

Cervical cancer arises differentially from infections with up to 14 high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) types, making model-based evaluations of cervical cancer screening strategies computationally heavy and structurally complex. Thus, with the high number of HPV types, microsimulation is typically used to investigate cervical cancer screening strategies. We developed a feasible deterministic model that integrates varying natural history of cervical cancer by the different high-risk HPV types with compressed mixture representations of the screened population, allowing for fast computation of screening interventions. To evaluate the method, we built a corresponding microsimulation model. The outcomes of the deterministic model were stable over different levels of compression and agreed with the microsimulation model for all disease states, screening outcomes, and levels of cancer incidence. The compression reduced the computation time more than 1000 fold when compared to microsimulation in a cohort of 1 million women. The compressed mixture representations enable the assessment of uncertainties surrounding the natural history of cervical cancer and screening decisions in a computationally undemanding way., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

We assessed whether infection with chlamydia increases the incidence of carcinogenic human papillomavirus (HPV) infections and if HPV persistence is affected by chlamydia co-infection. For 1982 women (16-29 years-old) participating in two consecutive rounds of a chlamydia screening implementation trial, swabs were polymerase chain reaction tested to detect chlamydia and 14 carcinogenic HPV genotypes. HPV type-specific incidence and persistence rates were stratified for chlamydia positivity at follow-up. Associations were assessed by multilevel logistic regression analyses with correction for sexual risk factors. HPV type-specific incidence ranged from 1.4% to 8.9% and persistence from 22.7% to 59.4% after a median follow-up of 11 months (interquartile range: 11-12). Differences in 1-year HPV persistence rates between chlamydia -infected and noninfected women were less distinct than differences in HPV incidence rates (pooled adjusted odds ratios of 1.17 [95% CI: 0.69-1.96] and 1.84 [95% CI: 1.36-2.47], respectively). The effect of chlamydia co-infection on HPV-infection risk did not significantly differ by HPV genotype. In conclusion, infection with chlamydia increases the risk of infection by carcinogenic HPV types and may enhance persistence of some HPV types. Although these findings could reflect residual confounding through unobserved risk factors, our results do give reason to explore more fully the association between chlamydia and HPV type-specific acquisition and persistence., (© 2015 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Cytological screening has substantially decreased the cervical cancer incidence, but even better protection may be achieved by primary high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) screening. In the Netherlands, five-yearly cytological screening for women aged 30-60 years will be replaced by primary hrHPV screening in 2016. The new screening guidelines involve an extension of the screening interval from 5 to 10 years for hrHPV-negative women aged 40 or 50 years. We investigated the impact of this program change on the lifetime cancer risks in women without an hrHPV infection at age 30, 35, 40, 45 or 50 years. The time to cancer was estimated using 14-year follow-up data from a population-based screening intervention trial and the nationwide database of histopathology reports. The new screening guidelines are expected to lead to a reduced cervical cancer risk for all age groups. The average risk reduction was 34% and was smallest (25%) among women aged 35 years. The impact of hrHPV screening on the cancer risk was sensitive to the duration from cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2/3 (CIN2/3) to cancer; a small increase in the cancer risk was estimated for women aged 35 or 40 years in case a substantial proportion of CIN2/3 showed fast progression to cancer. Our results indicate that primary hrHPV screening with a ten-yearly interval for hrHPV-negative women of age 40 and beyond will lead to a further reduction in lifetime cancer risk compared to five-yearly cytology, provided that precancerous lesions progress slowly to cancer., (© 2014 UICC.)

Background: The European Medicines Agency (EMA) recently approved two-dose immunization schedules for bivalent (HPV 16/18) and quadrivalent (HPV 6/11/16/18) human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines in nine to fourteen and thirteen year-old-girls, respectively. Registration was based on trials comparing immunogenicity of two-dose schedules in girls 9-14 years to three-dose schedules in young women 15-26 years. We evaluate comparability of antibody levels between and within age groups and discuss potential implications for monitoring the effectiveness of HPV vaccination., Methods: A systematic literature search was performed for studies comparing immunogenicity of two- to three-dose schedules of HPV vaccination. We compared geometric mean concentrations (GMCs) of vaccine-type antibodies between different dosing schedules across different age groups. Meta-analysis was used to estimate pooled GMC ratios (bivalent vaccine) of two- compared with three-dose schedules within girls., Findings: For both vaccines, two-dose immunization of girls yielded non-inferior GMCs relative to a three-dose schedule in young women up to respectively 36 and 48 months follow-up. Pooled GMC ratios for the bivalent vaccine within girls showed the two-dose schedule becoming inferior to the three-dose schedule in girls for HPV 16 at approximately two years after the first dose. For the quadrivalent vaccine, antibody responses for HPV-18 became inferior from 18 months follow-up onwards when comparing the two-dose schedule with the three-dose schedule within girls., Implications: Two-dose immunization of girls has non-inferior immunogenicity compared to a three-dose schedule among young women. However, non-inferior immunogenicity of two- compared with three-dose schedules within girls has not been shown at all time points. Due to this inconclusive evidence, implementation of two-dose HPV vaccination needs to be monitored closely., (Copyright © 2015 The British Infection Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We studied the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention strategies in the Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CEECA) region. The cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus (HPV)16/18 vaccination of 12 year-old girls was calculated for 28 countries, under the assumption that vaccination prevents 70% of all cervical cancer cases and that cervical cancer and all-cause mortality rates are stable without vaccination. At three-dose vaccination costs of I$ 100 per vaccinated girl (currency 2005 international dollars), HPV16/18 vaccination was very cost-effective in 25 out of 28 countries using the country's gross domestic product (GDP) per capita as cost-effectiveness threshold (criterion by World Health Organization). A three-dose vaccination cost of I$ 100 is within the current range of vaccine costs in European immunization programs, and therefore our results indicate that HPV vaccination may be good value for money. To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening combined with vaccination, we calibrated a published simulation model to HPV genotype data collected in Slovenia, Poland, and Georgia. The screening interval was varied at 3, 6, and 10 years starting at age 25 or 30 and ending at age 60. In Slovenia and Poland, combined vaccination and 10-yearly HPV (DNA) screening (vaccination coverage 70%, screening coverage per round 70%) was very cost-effective when the cost of three-dose vaccination was I$ 100 per vaccinated girl. More intensive screening was very cost-effective when the screening coverage per round was 30% or 50%. In Georgia, 10-yearly Pap screening was very cost-effective in unvaccinated women. Vaccination combined with 10-yearly HPV screening was likely to be cost-effective if the three-dose vaccination cost was I$ 50 per vaccinated girl. To conclude, cervical cancer prevention strategies utilizing both HPV16/18 vaccination and HPV screening are very cost-effective in countries with sufficient resources. In low-resource settings, low vaccine pricing is essential for strategies of combined vaccination and screening to be cost-effective. This article forms part of a regional report entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases in the Central and Eastern Europe and Central Asia Region" Vaccine Volume 31, Supplement 7, 2013. Updates of the progress in the field are presented in a separate monograph entitled "Comprehensive Control of HPV Infections and Related Diseases" Vaccine Volume 30, Supplement 5, 2012., (Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Little is known about the time span of progression from high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN2/3) to invasive cervical cancer. Estimation of this duration from longitudinal studies is not permitted, as CIN2/3 should be treated when detected. Cross-sectional data on the age-specific incidence of detected CIN2/3 and cervical cancer cases are readily available in national registries, but these data are difficult to interpret because neither the moment of lesion development nor the onset of invasive cancer is observed. We developed a statistical model for estimating the duration of time between CIN2/3 and preclinical cancer using Dutch national registries for the years 2000-2005. Human papillomavirus (HPV) genotype data were used to separate CIN2/3 and cancer incidences to obtain estimates for HPV-16-positive and HPV-16-negative lesions. The median time from CIN2/3 to cancer was estimated to be 23.5 years (95% confidence interval: 20.8, 26.6), and 1.6% of the lesions progressed to cancer within 10 years. The median duration for HPV-16-positive lesions was similar, but 2.4% of the HPV-16-positive lesions progressed to cancer within 10 years, as compared with 0.6% for HPV-16-negative lesions. Estimated durations of time to cancer are essential for reassessment of the optimal screening interval in light of vaccination and novel screening tests.

Several countries recently added human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination to cervical cancer screening in the effort to prevent cervical cancer. They include the Netherlands, where both programs are free. To estimate their combined future impact on cancer prevention, information is needed on the association between participation in vaccination now and in screening in the future and on what groups are at risk for nonparticipation. We studied the association between participation in screening by mothers and in vaccination by their daughters. Girls' vaccination status was matched by house-address with their mothers' screening participation. We estimated the effect on cancer incidence by means of computer simulation. We investigated risk groups for nonparticipation using multivariable multilevel logistic regression and calculated population-attributable fractions. Our results, based on 89% of girls invited for vaccination in 2009 (n = 337,368), show that vaccination status was significantly associated with mothers' screening participation (odds ratio: 1.54 [95% confidence interval: 1.51-1.57]). If a mother's screening is taken as proxy of a girl's future screening, only 13% of the girls will not participate in either program compared to 23% if screening alone is available. The positive association between vaccination and screening resulted in slightly lower model estimates of the impact of vaccination on cancer incidence, compared to estimates assuming no association. Girls with nonwestern ethnicities, with young mothers, who live in urban areas with low socioeconomic status, are at risk for nonparticipation. A significant part of potential nonscreeners may be reached through HPV vaccination. Estimates made before vaccination was introduced only slightly overestimated its impact on cervical cancer incidence., (Copyright © 2012 UICC.)

Background: The use of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines has been universally approved for women from age 12 to 25 years, but those older than 16 years receive no reimbursement for the cost of the vaccine in the Netherlands. Reductions in the vaccine price as well as new insights in the efficacy of HPV vaccines offer renewed arguments to consider HPV vaccination in adult women. We calculated the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of vaccinating women aged 17-25 years in 2010., Methods: The calculations were based on an individual-based simulation model for cervical carcinogenesis, with HPV infection risks obtained from a type-specific HPV transmission model. The indirect protective effect from vaccinating 12 to 16 year-old girls was adjusted for. Cervical screening in the model was incorporated according Dutch screening guidelines, i.e. 7 cytology-based rounds at 5-year intervals from the age of 30. As base-case, we assumed the vaccine to offer full protection against HPV16/18 only if no prior exposure to that type had occurred before vaccination. In sensitivity analyses, we considered partial cross-protection against types 31/33/45/58 and efficacy against all future infections, irrespective of previous or current infection status., Results: In base-case analyses, vaccinating 17 year-olds reduced their lifetime risk of treatment for precancerous lesions from 7.77% to 3.48% and their lifetime cervical cancer risk from 0.52% to 0.24%. These risks were 6.12% and 0.45%, respectively, for a 25 year-old vaccinee. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for vaccinating 17-25 year-olds was €22,526 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) at a vaccine price of €65 per dose, a 50% reduction of the 2010 pharmacy price in the Netherlands. If cross-protection against types 31/33/45/58 was included, the ICER decreased to €14,734 per QALY. Results were robust to efficacy assumptions with respect to previous or current infection status., Conclusion: The clinical benefit of HPV vaccination of women up to 25 years moderately depends on cross-protection to non-vaccine types. Refunding the cost of the vaccine to 17-25 year-old women in the Netherlands can be considered cost-effective at anticipated price reductions., (Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: Vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) types 16/18 is being implemented in many countries. There may be indirect benefit of HPV vaccination to nonvaccinated women, who may experience a reduced risk of infection with vaccine-preventable types (herd immunity). We attempt to disentangle the direct and indirect effects of HPV vaccination, while accounting for 14 oncogenic HPV types in a dynamic modeling framework., Methods: On the basis of vaccine uptake among preadolescent girls in the Netherlands, we calculated how heterosexual transmission of HPV-16/18 is expected to change as a result of vaccination, and used these predictions in an individual-based simulation model of cervical carcinogenesis that considers 14 high-risk HPV types. Models were parameterized to match prevaccine data on type-specific HPV infection and cervical disease., Results: At 50% vaccine coverage, the estimated lifetime infection risk in nonvaccinated women dropped from 0.46 (95% credible interval = 0.35-0.54) to 0.37 (0.26-0.46) for HPV-16, and from 0.40 (0.32-0.46) to 0.31 (0.22-0.36) [corrected] for HPV-18. For the whole population, we calculated an eventual 47% reduction in cervical cancer incidence, with 1 in 4 cases prevented among nonvaccinated women. The number of indirectly averted cancer cases was highest with vaccine coverage between 50% and 70%, approximating 70 cases per 100,000 women born from 2010 onward., Conclusions: HPV-16/18 vaccination of preadolescent girls will markedly lower infection rates among nonvaccinated women. Reduced transmission of vaccine-preventable HPV becomes a prominent aspect of cervical cancer control, especially in populations with moderate vaccine coverage.

We studied the health and economic effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing in cervical screening using a simulation model. The key data source was a Dutch longitudinal screening trial. We compared cytological testing with repeat cytology (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears) to HPV testing with cytology triage (for HPV-positive smears), combination testing (combined HPV and cytology) and cytological testing with HPV triage (for borderline/mildly abnormal smears). We varied the screening interval from 5 to 10 years. The main outcome measures were the number of cervical cancer cases, the number of quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). The base-case estimates were accompanied with ranges across 118 calibrated parameter settings (calibration criteria: cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 2/3, cancer and mortality rates). In comparison to 5-yearly cytology, 5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage gave a reduction in the number of cancer cases of 23% (range, 9-27%). The reduction was 26% (range, 10-29%) for combination testing and 3% (range, -1 to 8%) for cytology with HPV triage. For strategies with primary HPV testing, the model also estimated a reduction in cancer cases when the screening interval was extended to 7.5 years. Five-yearly cytology with HPV triage and 5 to 7.5-yearly HPV testing with cytology triage were cost effective for the base-case settings and the majority of calibrated parameter settings (ICER below Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold of euro20,000/QALY). Our model indicates that HPV testing with cytology triage is likely to be cost effective. An extension of the screening interval may be considered to control costs.

Viral transmissibility and natural resistance to infection are key determinants in assessing the population impact of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination, yet information on these parameters is scarce. Using data from 2 large-scale surveys on sexual behavior in the Netherlands (carried out in 2005-2006), the authors employed a Bayesian framework to fit a transmission model to the cross-sectional age-dependent prevalence of HPV DNA in cervical smears (data collected in 1992-2002), assuming that the prevaccine situation reflected an endemic equilibrium, and calculated type-specific estimates of transmissibility and infection-induced resistance. The posterior median transmission probability per heterosexual partnership covered a range of 0.43-0.94 among the 14 high-risk types of HPV. The transmission probability of HPV-16 was estimated at 0.80 (95% posterior interval: 0.60, 0.99) and that of HPV-18 at 0.93 (95% posterior interval: 0.72, 1). The model predicted that the decrease in HPV prevalence with age could not solely be explained by sexual activity and screening but also by resistance to reinfection, which is lost at a rate of 0.014-0.047 (1%-5%) per year. These results support the notion that HPV infection is highly transmissible, and they suggest a gradual loss of type-specific immunity over time. Because high transmission potential is associated with a low impact of herd immunity, extensive vaccination coverage will be required to substantially reduce cervical cancer incidence.