Search

To examine the impact of projected climate changes on secondary succession, we exposed the same fallow soil with a common seed bank to an in situ gradient of urban to rural macroenvironments that differed in temperature and CO2 concentration ([CO2]). This gradient was established at three locations: Baltimore city center (urban), a city park on the outskirts of Baltimore (suburban), and an organic farm 87 km from the Baltimore city center site (rural). Over a five-year period, the urban site averaged 2.1 degrees C warmer and had a [CO2] that was ~20% higher than at the rural location, indicating that this gradient was a reasonable surrogate for projected changes in those variables for this century. Previous work had demonstrated that other abiotic variables measured across the transect, including tropospheric ozone and nitrogen deposition, did not differ consistently. The first year of exposure resulted in (two- to threefold) greater aboveground biomass in the urban relative to the rural site, but with uniform species composition across sites. Simple regression of abiotic variables indicated that temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) were the best predictors of plant biomass among locations. Stepwise multiple regressions were also performed to analyze the effect of more than one macroenvironmental variable on total plant biomass. The combination of daily CO2 concentration and nighttime temperature explained 87% (P < 0.01) of the variability in total biomass between sites. After five years, the species demography of the plant communities had changed significantly, with a greater ratio of perennials to annuals for the urban relative to the rural location. Greater first-year biomass and litter accumulation at the urban site may have suppressed the subsequent seed germination of annual species, accelerating changes in species composition. If urban macroenvironments reflect future global change conditions, these data suggest a faster rate of secondary succession in a warmer, higher [CO2] world.

To examine the impact of climate change on vegetative productivity, we exposed fallow agricultural soil to an in situ temperature and CO2 gradient between urban, suburban and rural areas in 2002. Along the gradient, average daytime CO2 concentration increased by 21% and maximum (daytime) and minimum (nighttime) daily temperatures increased by 1.6 and 3.3°C, respectively in an urban relative to a rural location. Consistent location differences in soil temperature were also ascertained. No other consistent differences in meteorological variables (e.g. wind speed, humidity, PAR, tropospheric ozone) as a function of urbanization were documented. The urban-induced environmental changes that were observed were consistent with most short-term (~50 year) global change scenarios regarding CO2 concentration and air temperature. Productivity, determined as final above-ground biomass, and maximum plant height were positively affected by daytime and soil temperatures as well as enhanced [CO2], increasing 60 and 115% for the suburban and urban sites, respectively, relative to the rural site. While long-term data are needed, these initial results suggest that urban environments may act as a reasonable surrogate for investigating future climatic change in vegetative communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]