1. KAMU HARCAMALARI VE İŞSİZLİK ORANI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ: ABRAMS EĞRİSİNİN TÜRKİYE İÇİN SINANMASI.
- Author
-
ÖZER, Mustafa Orhan
- Subjects
- *
PUBLIC spending , *UNEMPLOYMENT statistics , *TEST validity , *COINTEGRATION , *UNEMPLOYMENT - Abstract
The Abrams curve shows the relationship between public expenditures and unemployment in a country. In the economy where this curve is valid, the increase in public expenditures causes the unemployment rate to increase. This study tests the validity of the Abrams curve for Turkey over the period 1980-2018. The stationarity of the variables is examined by the Fourier KPSS unit root test and it is understood that they are stationary at the first differences. Later, the long-term relationship between the variables is examined by the Fourier Shin cointegration test and it is determined that the variables are cointegrated. The CCR method is used to estimate long-run coefficients. According to this, one unit increase in public expenditures causes unemployment rate increase by 0.45 units. The findings from the FMOLS and DOLS estimators also support this result. Finally, the Toda-Yamamoto causality test is implemented and it is observed that there is a unidirectional causal relationship running from public expenditures to unemployment rate. The results demonstrate that the Abrams curve is valid for Turkey. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2020