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Based on administrative data from Norway, we explore the "grey area" between the roles of unemployment- and temporary disability-insurances by examining how participation in these two program types is affected by local labor demand conditions. Local labor demand is identified by means of a shift-share instrumental variables strategy, where initial local industry-composition is interacted with sub-sequent national industry-specific employment fluctuations. Our results indicate that local labor demand has a large negative effect on the propensity to claim disability insurance, which, for some groups, is remarkably similar to its effect on the propensity to claim unemployment insurance. Based on this finding, we question whether it is meaningful to maintain a sharp distinction between these two programs.

While integration policies typically focus on labor market entry, we present evidence showing that immigrants from low‐income countries tend to have more precarious jobs, and face more severe consequences of job loss, than natives. For immigrant workers in the Norwegian private sector, the probability of job loss in the near future is twice that of native workers. Using corporate bankruptcy for identification, we find that the adverse effects of job loss on future employment and earnings are more than twice as large for immigrant employees.

Based on administrative registers from Norway, we examine how unemployment insurance (UI) and active labor market programs (ALMP) affect the transition rates from unemployment to regular employment and entrepreneurship. We find that the entrepreneurship hazard is highly responsive with respect to UI incentives, and that the probability of starting up a new business increases sharply around the time of UI exhaustion. We also find that while participation in ALMP has a positive impact on the employment hazard, it has no effect on entrepreneurship. We speculate that this reflects the programs' one-sided focus on job search rather than job creation.

We examine the impact of job loss on entrepreneurship behavior in Norway. Our identification strategy relies on the use of mass layoffs caused by bankruptcies as indicators of exogenous displacement. We find that working in a company which is going to close down due to bankruptcy during the next four years raises the subsequent entrepreneur rate by 3.7 percentage points (155 %) for men and 1.8 percentage points (180 %) for women, compared to working in a stable firm. These estimates are much larger than what has previously been reported in the literature. Taking into account that many workers lose their jobs in the comparison group of stable firms also, we reckon that the full effects of displacement are even larger.

Labour market conditions at the time and place of potential entry into the labour market are shown to have a substantial and persistent impact on adult labour market performance. Birth cohorts that face particularly depressed labour markets when they graduate from primary- and/or secondary education are – other things equal - subject to relatively high rates of unemployment during their whole prime-age work career. Building on a unique combination of micro- and macro data from Norway, we show that these effects are robust with respect to model-specifications and conditioning variables, and that they are not limited to particularly disadvantaged groups of workers.

We develop a new indicator of labour market tightness, based on the pure calendar time changes in individuals’ transition rates from unemployment to employment.Based on Norwegian register data from the 1989-2002 period, we show that this indicator,in contrast to the aggregate rate of unemployment, correlates well with an expost-calculated GDP-based business cycle indicator, even around the time of business cycle turning points. The indicator can be calculated just as quickly as the unemployment rate, both at an aggregate and a disaggregate level, and hence improve policy makers ability to assess current labour market developments.

Labour market conditions at the time and place of potential entry into the labour market are shown to have a substantial and persistent impact on adult labour market performance. Birth cohorts that face particularly depressed labour markets when they graduate from primary- and/or secondary education are – other things equal - subject to relatively high rates of unemployment during their whole prime-age work career. Building on a unique combination of micro- and macro data from Norway, we show that these effects are robust with respect to model-specifications and conditioning variables, and that they are not limited to particularly disadvantaged groups of workers.