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This study assesses the global and cross-regional influence of China's currency, the renminbi (RMB). We first develop a theoretical framework to determine the channel through which progress in RMB internationalization can be mapped onto the market influence of the RMB exchange rate on that of other currencies. Using a volatility connectedness approach, we then construct a series of spillover indices reflecting the international influence of the RMB. We find that the RMB's influence is worldwide but is smaller than that of major international currencies, such as the US dollar. Overall, the RMB has basically become a peripheral currency in Greater China, Central Asia, Eastern Europe, and some South Asian economies. Because of the Belt and Road initiative, regionalization of the RMB has also progressed in developing economies; however, China still has far to go in fully achieving internationalization of its currency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is widely assumed that the renminbi (RMB) cannot acquire a meaningful place in central bank reserve portfolios without full liberalization of China's capital account. We argue that the RMB can in fact develop into an international reserve currency in the absence of capital‐account convertibility. Trade and investment links can drive use despite limited access to Chinese financial markets. But this route to currency internationalization requires policy support. China must provide access to RMB through loans and the People's Bank of China (PBoC) currency swaps. It must ensure the convertibility of RMB into US dollars in offshore markets. It must provide RMB services at a stable and predictable price. Currency internationalization without full capital‐account liberalization thus requires the RMB to be backed by dollar reserves, which the PBoC consequently will continue to hold and use. Hence, we do not foresee RMB internationalization as supplanting dollar dominance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Travelers who lack extensive experience or those visiting multiple countries in a short timeframe often need help to differentiate and identify the values of mixed foreign coins. This paper introduces a model that employs You Only Look Once (YOLO) object detection to identify various foreign coins within a single image frame and thoroughly evaluate its performance. The model, developed on Google Colab, has been trained using a dataset of 8,100 images and successfully identifies 18 different classes of coins, including the US dollar, European euro, and Chinese yuan. Implementing the model as a mobile-friendly web application allows users to upload images of their coins, and the application will provide identification results along with the option to receive the latest currency exchange information. The performance metrics scores of the model were 0.892, 0.932, and 0.925 for Precision, Recall, and Accuracy, respectively, showing satisfactory results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically examines the role of USD, EUR, and CNY as international payment currencies in Korea, China, and Japan. Our survey of business people in those countries finds that higher convertibility and stability of these currencies in the SDR enhance their acceptability and usability for international payments. However, even during times of instability, USD remains highly accepted and usable as a trade payment currency unlike the cases of EUR and CNY. Therefore, maintaining exchange rate stability is essential for improving the acceptability and usability of EUR and CNY as international payment currencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to explore the relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization by employing an analytical framework and applying it to RMB internationalization. Our results reaffirm that economic size, financial market development and network externalities are keys in currency internationalization. We also find that international competitiveness is a potential determinant of currency internationalization. However, a more comprehensively and fully measured index of international competitiveness than the GCI is needed to investigate the potential relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization. The RMB could become an international reserve currency that is larger than the Japanese yen and the British pound sterling, but still lags far behind the US dollar and the euro by 2035. Given the network externalities and historical experience of currency internationalization, however, it will be a long and bumpy process for the RMB to become an international currency, particularly an international reserve currency. Exploring the relation between international competitiveness and currency internationalization; Reaffirming economic size, financial market development and network externalities as keys in currency internationalization; International competitiveness is a potential determinant of currency internationalization; The RMB could become an international reserve currency by 2035; RMB internationalization will be a long and bumpy process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We extend the opinion formation approach to probe the world influence of economical organizations. Our opinion formation model mimics a battle between currencies within the international trade network. Based on the United Nations Comtrade database, we construct the world trade network for the years of the last decade from 2010 to 2020. We consider different core groups constituted by countries preferring to trade in a specific currency. We will consider principally two core groups, namely, five Anglo-Saxon countries that prefer to trade in US dollar and the 11 BRICS+ that prefer to trade in a hypothetical currency, hereafter called BRI, pegged to their economies. We determine the trade currency preference of the other countries via a Monte Carlo process depending on the direct transactions between the countries. The results obtained in the frame of this mathematical model show that starting from the year 2014, the majority of the world countries would have preferred to trade in BRI than USD. The Monte Carlo process reaches a steady state with three distinct groups: two groups of countries preferring to trade in whatever is the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences, one in BRI and the other in USD, and a third group of countries swinging as a whole between USD and BRI depending on the initial distribution of the trade currency preferences. We also analyze the battle between three currencies: on one hand, we consider USD, BRI and EUR, the latter currency being pegged by the core group of nine EU countries. We show that the countries preferring EUR are mainly the swing countries obtained in the frame of the two currencies model. On the other hand, we consider USD, CNY (Chinese yuan), OPE, the latter currency being pegged to the major OPEC+ economies for which we try to probe the effective economical influence within international trade. Finally, we present the reduced Google matrix description of the trade relations between the Anglo-Saxon countries and the BRICS+. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides an alternative method to estimate the degree of RMB internationalization by combining the modified Frankel-Wei’s (1994, 2008) weight-inference technique and the state space model. Using a large sample of monthly exchange rate data of 54 economies, we estimate the dynamic currency weights of the U.S. dollar, Euro, RMB, Japanese yen and British pound. Results show that RMB has markedly increased since August 2015 as an international anchor currency, and then gradually decreased from June 2016 to December 2018. The currency weights ranked from highest to lowest are the U.S. dollar, Euro, RMB, British pound and Japanese yen for now. Furthermore, we also find that relative trade openness, capital account openness and exchange rate stability are the key drivers promoting the weight of the RMB. The above findings are robust to a battery of robustness tests. Our research contributes to the literature by providing a dynamic anchor currency weight estimation method and presenting a preliminary explanation for the changes of currency weight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rise of China has accelerated Renminbi (RMB) internationalization. While there seems to be global support for RMB internationalization, there is a gap in understanding how developing nations, facing potential domestic skepticism, rationalize and articulate their support. This article discusses narratives that states use to legitimize their support for RMB internationalization. Using the case of Indonesia, this article examines the country's policy responses to China's RMB internationalization strategy. It uncovers that Indonesia frames its engagement with RMB internationalization not merely as an endorsement of China's global ambitions but as a strategic move to hedge against US dollar vulnerability and to foster broader Asian regional integration, particularly in terms of currency cooperation. This article enriches the existing literature, providing a nuanced perspective on how states navigate the complexities of international economic diplomacy, crafting narratives that align with their strategic interests and policy objectives in the evolving landscape of global currency politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The up‐and‐coming influence of the RMB on currency co‐movements is examined in this paper, in the context of a transpiring tri‐polar international monetary system advocated in prior studies. The study is empirically conducted against the backdrop of a more variable RMB exchange rate regime, which enables the integration of the RMB into the international monetary system. The influence of the RMB is found most evident in Asia, being modest in Latin America while reaching Africa. The RMB co‐moves most with the currencies of countries that have large shares in trade with China considerably. Meanwhile, a residual‐based instrumental variables model is proposed in this study purposely for dealing with issues of common factor dominance, which prevails in currency co‐movements. The emerging influence of the RMB on currency co‐movements arises at the time when a multiple‐reserve currency system is coming, and the RMB is included as the third largest currency in the SDR basket. It is shored up by the improved infrastructure, strengthened central bank cooperation and expanded networks for cross‐border RMB payments and settlements. It is concluded that the RMB has increasingly integrated into the international monetary system as one of the major players, effecting currency market movements actively alongside the US dollar and euro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The internationalization of the renminbi (RMB) is viewed by some experts as a potential challenge to the US dollar's (USD) hegemonic status in the current global monetary system. This study employs a mixed theoretical framework to delve into the prospective evolution of China's monetary influence. By applying the power transition theory to analyze the global monetary power structure, this study evaluates China's dissatisfaction as a potential challenger against the dominance of the USD and examines the power parity between China and the United States. On a regional scale, the analysis focuses on possible Asian monetary integration of the RMB-domination by adopting the neofunctionalist paradigm derived from the European experience and juxtaposing this process with European monetary integration. The analysis shows that China has not been able to directly challenge the dominance of the USD, nor has it effectively spearheaded the agenda for regional monetary integration. More specifically, China's export-oriented growth model has hindered the emergence of the RMB as a substantial competition to the USD within East and South Asia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Decisions of central banks on foreign exchange rates are based on the comovement of foreign exchange (FOREX) in mature markets such as US dollar rates to the British pound, euro, Chinese yuan, Japanese yen and Australian dollar. We investigate the long-run movement and dynamic quantile connectedness of volatility among pairs of these exchange rates. The updated residual-based fractional cointegration testing framework using narrow-band frequency domain least squares estimator is used to obtain the residual series for fractional cointegration. Quantile dynamic connectedness framework for volatility spillovers at different market conditions, depicted by quantiles, are used. We find evidence of long memory cointegration in seven pairs of exchange rates involving the previously mentioned currencies. These seven cases also correspond to a higher average index of quantile connectedness, with the effect of connectedness phasing out at higher quantiles and being more visible at lower quantiles. A portfolio investment strategy using optimal portfolio weights and hedge ratios for maintaining the accrued profit at the FOREX market is also presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do historical celebrities contribute to city tourism today? While the existing literature has widely examined the tourism effect of modern film celebrities, it has not yet explored the long-run impact of historical and cultural celebrities on tourism economies. We answer this question by tracing the places of residence of Su Shi, one of the greatest Chinese cultural celebrities in the Northern Song Dynasty (960–1127), and estimating the effect on average city tourism between 2002 and 2019. Our ordinary least square estimation finds that one more month of Su Shi's residence increases domestic tourism revenue today by about 0.3%, leading to an average tourism value of around 118 million Chinese Yuan (about 18 million US dollars). We consolidate the long-run effect with several robustness checks. Channel analysis further shows that his residence facilitates tourism development today and increased cultural heritage in subsequent dynasties. These findings highlight the roles of historical celebrities in fostering cultural heritages and forming city tourism competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Government bonds might provide reference entities that reduce corporate bond yields. We study China's 2017 issuance of two U.S. dollar (USD)-denominated sovereign bonds when there were (effectively) no outstanding USD sovereigns. We find that Chinese corporate USD bonds experienced a four- to nine-basis-point decline in yield spreads, whereas corporate renminbi (RMB) bonds did not. The effect was stronger for corporate bonds with maturities similar to those of the USD sovereigns. Further consistent with the reference effect, USD-denominated corporate bonds experienced declines in bid-ask spreads and volatility; corporate bond yield spread changes became more sensitive to sovereign yield innovations; and the less-informed foreign mutual funds significantly increased their holdings of offshore USD Chinese corporate bonds. Limited evidence indicates that new corporate bond maturities shifted toward the sovereign bonds' maturity after their issuance. This paper was accepted by Lukas Schmid, finance. Funding: B. Wang received financial support from Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. C. Y. Hong received financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72003125]. Supplemental Material: The internet appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4499. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Uncertain hypothesis test is a statistical tool that uses uncertainty theory to determine whether some hypotheses are correct or not based on observed data. As an application of uncertain hypothesis test, this paper proposes a method to test whether an uncertain differential equation fits the observed data or not. In order to demonstrate the test method, some numerical examples are provided. Finally, both uncertain currency model and stochastic currency model are used to model US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD–CNY) exchange rates. As a result, it is shown that the uncertain currency model fits the exchange rates well, but the stochastic currency model does not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Inspired by Karl Polanyi's argument that the institution of money offers an essential insight into the economy as an instituted process, I examine the extent to which the recent proposals presented in various countries to formulate their central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) actually represent the reactions of governments to the new development paths of their respective society in the digital age. To illustrate this, I scrutinize the particular social, political and economic dimensions of the instituted process which have led to the launch of the digital yuan by the Chinese government in 2021. I also argue that the formulation of the digital yuan is specific to the particular contextual settings of China and their progress. Finally, I argue that the evolving role and long-term influence of the digital yuan in a global context is largely subject to the competition of the world's major upcoming CBDCs like the U.S. dollar and euro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Research background: Most transactions in world trade are invoiced in several international currencies. The changes in the distribution of the great economic powers and the strengthening of the position of developing countries make it necessary to consider the factors determining the choice of trade invoicing currency and to assess the prospects of the dollar as an invoicing currency and the possibility of strengthening the position of developing countries' currencies in this function. Purpose of the article: The aim of the paper is to assess the factors influencing the choice of invoicing currency for international trade in 2000-2019. Methods: The analysis of factors influencing the choice of international trade invoicing currency is based on panel data modelling. The study is conducted for a group of 55 countries. It is assumed that the following variables may influence the currency position in the trade invoicing function: the share of the issuer's country in the bilateral trade, inflation and exchange rate. Findings & value added: The analysis showed that despite the decreasing share of the United States in world trade, the U.S. dollar remains the most important export invoicing currency. The main factors influencing the dollar's dominance are the U.S. share of countries' exports, inflation in developing countries, and the exchange rate in advanced economies. The great significance of trade share as a determinant of the position of the trade invoicing currency is an important indication of the strengthening position of developing country currencies, particularly the Chinese yuan. The obtained results confirm, with the use of more complete data, the validity of the dominant currency paradigm and enrich the still underdeveloped analysis in the area of international macroeconomics using panel data analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As China's position in the global economy has gradually improved, the importance of debates on the role of the renminbi in the international monetary system has significantly increased. This paper uses bibliometric methods—Bibliometrix R-package and its web-based graphical interface Biblioshiny—applied to data imported from Web of Science and Scopus to investigate and synthesize the renminbi literature published in English between 1995 and 2021. Science mapping offers a visual representation of different networks and clusters of authors' keywords. The performance analysis, a quantitative evaluation of the most published sources, authors and papers on renminbi internationalization in the last 25 years, shows that the interest on the topic has grown, particularly after 2009 and 2016, respectively. There is also a high degree of concentration in the field, considering that out of the 802 analyzed papers, published in 393 sources, five authors and four journals had the highest impact. The content analysis identifies the main directions in the renminbi internationalization literature and future research questions to further explore this subject. The COVID-19 pandemic and post-Ukraine war era could generate a deeper reform of the international monetary system, in which the Chinese currency will strengthen its global position alongside the US dollar and the euro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From the Bretton Woods agreement in 1944 till the present day, the US dollar has been the dominant currency in world trade. However, the rise of the Chinese economy has recently led to the emergence of trade transactions in Chinese yuan. Here, we mathematically analyze how the structure of international trade flows would favor a country to trade whether in US dollar or in Chinese yuan. The trade currency preference of a country is modeled as a binary variable with the properties of a spin in an Ising model. The computation of this trade currency preference is based on the world trade network built from the 2010–2020 UN Comtrade data and is determined by two multiplicative factors: the relative weight of trade volume exchanged by the country with its direct trade partners and the relative weight of its trade partners in global international trade. The performed analysis, based on the convergence of the Ising spin interactions, shows that from 2010 to present a transition took place, and the majority of the world countries would now have a preference to trade in Chinese yuan if one only considers the world trade network structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper quantitatively analyzes the current status of North Korean consumer payment instruments through a questionnaire survey of 292 North Korean defectors. In the 2010s, it was found that the payment experience ratio of domestic currency cash and grain decreased, while the payment experience ratio of foreign currency cash increased. The use of foreign currency reached a stage where it was spread not only as a store of value but also as a medium of exchange. However, the most frequently used payment instrument by North Korean consumers was still domestic currency cash. By region, in inland urban areas both domestic currency cash and U.S. dollars are used and in the North Korea-China border region both domestic currency cash and Chinese yuan are used, while in inland rural areas dollarization does not occur because both domestic currency cash and grain are used. Meanwhile, despite the stable price trend during 2013-2019, the dollarization hysteresis effect is appearing, and both the purchasing power risk theory and the network externality theory are considered to have explanatory power for the cause. The results of this paper suggest that as dollarization is intensifying, it is expected that more costs such as shortages of commodities will be incurred than in the past if North Korea's de-dollarization policy is reimplemented. Also, in the case of domestic currency cards, which the North Korean authorities introduced in 2015 as part of a means of financial reform, this paper suggests that it may continue to be difficult for domestic currency cards to normalize official finance under the dollarization hysteresis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the internationalization of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) in light of a redefined network effects framework to incorporate an original institutionalist perspective. Contradicting common wisdom, this approach shows that rather than slowing down in 2015, the strategy to internationalize the RMB has been redirected towards the creation of network effects, thereby directly challenging the institutions—such as the petrodollar system, creditworthiness, among others—that support the United States dollar's hegemony. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies China's recent exchange rate policy for the renminbi (RMB). We demonstrate empirically that a two‐pillar policy is in place, aiming to balance exchange rate flexibility and RMB index stability via market and basket pillars. We further extend and validate the formulation that incorporates the so‐called countercyclical factor. Theoretically, we develop a flexible‐price monetary model for the RMB in which the two‐pillar policy arises endogenously as an optimal response of the government. We estimate the model by generalized method of moments and quantitatively assess various policy trade‐offs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the global financial recession of 2008 and the subsequent sovereign debt crisis, the US economic supremacy has experienced setbacks. China has steadily grown into a dependable economic force across the globe, particularly in Asia. Is the renminbi on the verge of becoming a global currency given the financial domination setbacks of the US economy? In this critical review analysis, I contend that the dollar’s hegemonic position is at risk, but the political and economic climate does not appear to be ripe for renminbi globalization. The Chinese hawks see the economic sanctions levied against Russia following the Ukraine invasion as a chance to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. Furthermore, China has benefited from the first-mover advantage through the launching of the Central Bank Digital Currency. However, China must gain the trust of foreign users in the robustness of its financial system, economy, and digital yuan’s functionality for the globalization of the digital yuan to be effective. Moreover, to promote renminbi internalization, China must ease capital regulations, increase renminbi convertibility, and restructure its financial system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study adopts the New Keynesian theoretical model to analyse the heterogeneity spillover effect of U.S. permanent and temporary monetary policy shock on China's economy through an exchange rate channel. It also employs the Bayesian technique to estimate SVAR model and obtain two main results. First, the permanent increase in the nominal interest rate in the U.S. causes Chinese yuan appreciation and U.S. dollar depreciation, which has a negative spillover impact on China's economy and leads to the decline in China's real output. Second, the temporary increase in the nominal interest rate in the U. S. leads to Chinese yuan depreciation, which has a positive spillover impact on China' s macroeconomy and leads to the rise of China's real output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China and Russia have been pushing for years to reduce the role of the US dollar in the international financial system. Beijing hoped that the yuan would take over the function of the dollar (and euro) in the global economy. Among the various initiatives underway. one of particular interest is the 2019 Sino-Russian Settlement and Payment Agreement. However, the continuing economic perturbations caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and the effects of economic sanctions imposed on Russia in 2022 will strengthen structural limitations of RMB and force both countries, as well as their BRIC-supporters, to reevaluate their plans to build an alternative system of internati.onal jinancial settlements and transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the return‐volatility relationship of the offshore Chinese RMB (CNH). Based on a regime‐switching copula model, we find that the return‐volatility relationship has changed since the August 2015 reform of the central parity formation mechanism. Before the reform, implied volatility increased only in response to CNH depreciation. After the reform, both large depreciation and appreciation of CNH trigger higher implied volatility. We show that both the "fear of a crash" and interest rate differentials are important factors contributing to the return‐volatility dynamics. Our study provides empirical evidence that the 2015 reform increased the two‐way flexibility of the USD/CNH exchange rate. Specifically, after the reform, both large negative and large positive USD/CNH returns have created fear of future losses, which causes investors to bid up option prices and therefore implied volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article discusses the implications of the weaponization of the US dollar and the potential impact on the international monetary system. It highlights the concerns raised after the 2008 global financial crisis about the sustainability of the US dollar as the global reserve currency. The article also mentions the efforts made by China to internationalize the renminbi (RMB) but acknowledges that it still faces significant hurdles. Despite these challenges, the US dollar is expected to remain the dominant global reserve currency due to the unique features of the US economy. The article concludes by suggesting that China and the USA should work together to avoid a financial rupture scenario. [Extracted from the article]

The contributions of this paper are two‐fold, one methodological and the other substantive. First, we propose a novel way of estimating volatility impulse response functions (VIRF) employing the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. As a useful byproduct, the associated confidence bands can be constructed. Second, we analyze volatility spillovers between the on‐ and offshore Renminbi exchange rates toward the US dollar. The VIRF show that the satellite CNH exchange rate promptly reflects the global market demand and supply, while the main CNY exchange rate reacts with a time lag. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the mean and volatility spillover effects of U.S. economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the RMB exchange rate return and the effects' time-varying features corresponding to the 2015 "8.11" RMB exchange rate reform and the Sino–U.S. trade friction. We find that rising U.S. EPU amplifies the RMB exchange rate return's volatility at the volatility spillover level while driving the RMB's appreciation against the USD at the mean spillover level. After the reform's implementation, the U.S. EPU's mean spillover on the RMB exchange rate return disappears, while the volatility spillover increases and is further enhanced by trade friction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article provides a new framework to evaluate the status of Renminbi internationalization. It proposes that the trading patterns of a currency in the global foreign exchange market embody the currency's position in the international monetary system. Based on foreign exchange trading data provided by CLS Group, the article constructs a ranking of major international currencies including the Renminbi. It finds that the Renminbi shares more similarities in foreign exchange trading patterns with the established global currencies like the US dollar and the Euro than with those regional currencies. The article also explores the policy implications that the new evaluation approach provides. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Purpose: It has been increasingly recognized that exchange rate changes affect the cash flow and the value of firms. Existing studies on exchange rate exposure do not have much success in finding significant exposure, and the failure to find this relationship empirically has been termed "exposure puzzle". Motivated by the limited success in detecting significant exchange rate exposure in the extant literature, China's exchange rate regime reform in 2005, the increasing role of China's stock market played in the global financial market and its attractiveness in international portfolio diversification, the purpose of this paper is to resolve the so-called "exposure puzzle" and thus make a contribution to the literature by investigating whether the renminbi (RMB) exchange rate movements have any significant impact on China's stock market from the perspective of US investors who may want to diversify their portfolios with Chinese stocks. Design/methodology/approach: Since previous studies which rely heavily on the standard Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) or seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method of estimation with the assumption of constant variance of firm's or industry's returns do not have much success in detecting significant exchange rate exposure, in this study, we apply an asymmetric GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (GED) model which takes conditional heteroscedasticity and leptokurtosis of asset returns into account in the estimation of first- and second-moment exchange rate exposure. Findings: Using weekly data over the period August 10, 2005–January 1, 2020 on 40 Chinese sector stock returns, the authors find strong evidence of first-moment exchange rate exposure. In particular, 65% (26 out of 40) of sectors examined have significant first-moment exposures and 73.08% (19 out of 26) of these significant first-moment exposures are asymmetric. For the second-moment exchange rate exposures, they are less frequently detected with 20% (8 out of 40) significant cases. These results are robust to whether an unorthogonalized or orthogonalized bilateral US dollar (USD)/Chinese Yuan (CNY) exchange rate is used in the estimation. Research limitations/implications: Because this study concerns only with whether exchange rate movements affect ex post returns as opposed to expected (ex ante) returns, and given the significant exposures with respect to different risk factors found in the study, it is interesting to see if any of these risk factors commands a risk premium. In other words, a natural extension of this study is to test whether any of these risk factors is priced in China's stock market. Practical implications: The findings of the study have interesting implications for US investors who would like to diversify their portfolios with Chinese stocks and are concerned about whether the unexpected movements in CNY will affect their portfolio returns in addition to its local and world market risk exposures. Originality/value: The study extends previous research on the first- and second-moment exchange rate exposure of Chinese stock returns by utilizing an asymmetric GARCH(1,1) with generalized error distribution (GED) model, which has not been fully exploited in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study attempts to investigate whether monetary models of exchange rates are contributing at the same pace to determine the exchange rates across countries, or whether their role has been changed through the development process. Since the 'money demand' and 'purchasing power parity are two major elements of these models suggesting a linear association of monetary models with exchange rate fundamentals, therefore, to capture the expected long-run relationship across these models is assessed by applying the cointegration technique. Three main currenciesbased exchange rates of Pakistan are evaluated within the context of monetary models including the US dollar, Euro, and Chinese Yuan. A sample of monthly data for the period 1957 to 2020 has been analyzed. The results show a weak long run relationship in the case of the Chinese Yuan-based exchange rate; however, in the short-run monetary models are significantly contributing to determining the real (nominal) exchange rate in the case of all three based currencies. Whereas in the case of both Euro and US dollar-based exchange rates the relationship is strongly evident both in the long and short runs. Chinese Yuan appears to be preferred over both US Dollar and Euro for international payments and a major share in foreign exchange reserves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare the performance of two approaches for finding the optimal set of products to display to customers landing on Alibaba's two online marketplaces, Tmall and Taobao. Both approaches were placed online simultaneously and tested on real customers for one week. The first approach we test is Alibaba's current practice. This procedure embeds thousands of product and customer features within a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm that is used to estimate the purchase probabilities of each product for the customer at hand. Our second approach uses a featurized multinomial logit (MNL) model to predict purchase probabilities for each arriving customer. In this way, we use less sophisticated machinery to estimate purchase probabilities, but we employ a model that was built to capture customer purchasing behavior and, more specifically, substitution patterns. Our experiments show that despite the lower prediction power of our MNL-based approach, it generates significantly higher revenue per visit compared with the current machine-learning algorithm with the same set of features. We compare the performance of two approaches for finding the optimal set of products to display to customers landing on Alibaba's two online marketplaces, Tmall and Taobao. We conducted a large-scale field experiment, in which we randomly assigned 10,421,649 customer visits during a one-week-long period to one of the two approaches and measured the revenue generated per customer visit. The first approach we tested was Alibaba's current practice, which embeds product and customer features within a sophisticated machine-learning algorithm to estimate the purchase probabilities of each product for the customer at hand. The products with the largest expected revenue (revenue × predicted purchase probability) are then made available for purchase. Our second approach, which we developed and implemented in collaboration with Alibaba engineers, uses a featurized multinomial logit (MNL) model to predict purchase probabilities for each arriving customer. We used historical sales data to fit the MNL model, and then, for each arriving customer, we solved a cardinality-constrained assortment-optimization problem under the MNL model to find the optimal set of products to display. Our field experiments revealed that the MNL-based approach generated 5.17 renminbi (RMB) per customer visit, compared with the 4.04 RMB per customer visit generated by the machine-learning-based approach when both approaches were given access to the same set of the 25 most important features. This improvement represents a 28% gain in revenue per customer visit, which corresponds to a 4 million RMB improvement over the week in which the experiments were conducted. Motivated by the results of our initial field experiment, Alibaba then implemented a full-featured version of our MNL-based approach, which now serves the majority of customers in this setting. Using another small-scale field experiment, we estimate that our new MNL-based approach that utilizes the full feature set is able to increase Alibaba's annual revenue by 87.26 million RMB (12.42 million U.S. dollars). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the degree of connectedness of Asia Pacific forex markets post‐global financial crisis and relates it to developments in the renminbi markets. The connectedness measure developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) (Journal of Econometrics, 182, 119–134) reveal the strength of linkages across the U.S. dollar currency pairs of 12 currencies, namely offshore renminbi, onshore renminbi, euro, yen, Australian dollar, Indian rupee, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, New Zealand dollar, Singapore dollar, Thai baht and Taiwan dollar. With the gradual liberalization of China's exchange rate system, shocks from the renminbi markets contribute more to fluctuations in almost all individual Asia Pacific currency markets vis‐à‐vis the yen. Rolling regressions show a number of Asia Pacific currencies exhibit tighter association with the renminbi when the latter underwent exchange rate regime reform. Finally, results from a two‐step analysis involving a panel regression provide evidence that time‐varying sensitivities of Asia Pacific currencies to the renminbi are directly related to the countries' trade and financial links with China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the twentieth anniversary of its inception, the euro has yet to expand its role as an international currency. We document this fact with a wide range of indicators including its role as an anchor or reference in exchange rate arrangements – which we argue is a portmanteau measure – and as a currency for the denomination of trade and assets. On all these dimensions, the euro comprises a far smaller share than that of the US dollar. Furthermore, that share has been roughly constant since 1999. By some measures, the euro plays no larger role than the Deutschemark and French franc that it replaced. We explore the reasons for this underperformance. While the leading anchor currency may have a natural monopoly, a number of additional factors have limited the euro's reach, including lack of financial centre, limited geopolitical reach and US and Chinese dominance in technology research. Most important, in our view, is the comparatively scarce supply of (safe) euro-denominated assets, which we document. The European Central Bank's (ECB's) lack of policy clarity may have also played a role. We show that the euro era can be divided into a 'Bundesbank-plus' period and a 'Whatever it Takes' period. The first shows a smooth transition from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism and continued to stabilize German inflation. The second period is characterized by an expanding ECB arsenal of credit facilities to European banks and sovereigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]