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OBJECTIVE--To examine whether the patterns of insulin concentration during the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) predict type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--We followed 400 nondiabetic Japanese Americans for 10-11 years. Insulin concentrations at 30, 60, and 120 min during a 2-h 75-g OGTT at baseline were used to derive the following possible patterns of insulin: pattern 1 (30-min peak, higher insulin level at 60 than at 120 min), pattern 2 (30-min peak, lower or equal level at 60 vs. 120 min), pattern 3 (60-min peak); pattern 4 (120-min peak, lower level at 30 than at 60 min), and pattern 5 (120-min peak, equal or higher level at 30 vs. 60 min). Insulin sensitivity was estimated by homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and Matsuda index. Insulin secretion was estimated by the insulinogenic index (IGI) [Δinsulin/Δglucose (30- 0 min)] and disposition index (IGI/HOMA-IR). RESULTS--There were 86 incident cases of type 2 diabetes. The cumulative incidence was 3.2, 9.8, 15.4, 47.8, and 37.5% for patterns 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Compared with pattern 1, patterns 4 and 5, characterized by a lasting late insulin response, were associated with significantly less insulin sensitivity as measured by the Matsuda index and lower early insulin response by the disposition index. The multiple-adjusted odds ratios of type 2 diabetes were 12.55 (95% CI 4.79-32.89) for pattern 4 and 8.34 (2.38-29.27) for pattern 5 compared with patterns 1 and 2. This association was independent of insulin secretion and sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS--The patterns of insulin concentration during an OGTT strongly predict the development of type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE--It has been reported that moderate alcohol consumption decreased the risk of type 2 diabetes but that elevated liver enzymes increased it. The comparative importance of alcohol consumption and liver enzymes as predictors of type 2 diabetes remains unconfirmed. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS--The participants included 8,576 Japanese men, aged 40-55 years, without type 2 diabetes at entry. Type 2 diabetes was diagnosed if a fasting plasma glucose level was ≥126 mg/dl or if participants were taking oral hypoglycemic medications or insulin. RESULTS--During the 4-year follow-up period, we confirmed 878 cases. In multivariate models, moderate daily alcohol consumption (16.4-42.6 g ethanol/day) decreased the risk of type 2 diabetes, and higher levels of γ-glutamyhransferase (GGT) and alanine aminotransferase (ALT) increased the risk. In joint analyses of alcohol consumption and liver enzymes, moderate drinkers with the lowest tertile of GGT had the lowest risk of type 2 diabetes. Compared with them, nondrinkers with the highest GGT had the highest risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio 3.18 [95% CI 1.75-5.76]). At every level of GGT, moderate or heavy alcohol drinkers (≥42.7 g ethanol/day) had a lower risk of type 2 diabetes than nondrinkers. The relationship of ALT and daily alcohol consumption with the risk of type 2 diabetes was almost the same as that of GGT. CONCLUSIONS--GGT, ALT, and daily alcohol consumption were independently associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Nondrinkers with the highest GGT or ALT had a high risk of type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVE -- Because skeletal muscle is one of the target tissues for insulin, skeletal muscle mass might be associated with type 2 diabetes. Serum creatinine is a possible surrogate marker of skeletal muscle mass. The purpose of this study was to determine whether serum creatinine level is associated with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS-- The study participants were nondiabetic Japanese men (n = 8,570) aged 40-55 years at entry. Type 2 diabetes was diagnosed if fasting plasma glucose was ≥ 126 mg/dl or if participants were taking oral hypoglycemic medication or insulin. RESULTS-- During the 4-year follow-up period, 877 men developed type 2 diabetes. Lower serum creatinine was associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes. The multiple-adjusted odds ratio for those who had serum creatinine levels between 0.40 and 0.60 mg/dl was 1.91 (95% CI 1.44-2.54) compared with those who had levels between 0.71 and 0.80 mg/dl. CONCLUSIONS -- Lower serum creatinine increased the risk of type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]