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OBJECTIVE: Improved risk assessment for patients with type 2 diabetes and elevated cardiovascular (CV) risk is needed. The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) Risk Score for Secondary Prevention (TRS 2°P) predicts a gradient of risk in patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) but has not been evaluated in patients with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: CV event rates were compared by baseline TRS 2°P in 16,488 patients enrolled in SAVORTIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53)with type 2 diabetes and high CV risk or established CV disease. Calibration was tested in the diabetes cohort from the REACH (REduction of Atherothrombosis for Continued Health) Registry. RESULTS: TRS 2°P revealed a robust risk gradient for the composite of CV death, MI, and ischemic stroke in the full trial population, with 2-year event rates of 0.9% in the lowestand 19.8% in the highest-risk groups (Ptrend < 0.001). A clear risk gradient was present within the subgroups of all coronary artery disease (CAD), CAD without prior MI, CAD with priorMI, peripheral artery disease, and prior stroke (Ptrend < 0.001 for each), with consistent risk relationships across subgroups. The C-statistic (0.71 for CV death and 0.66 for the composite end point) was consistent in each subgroup. There was close calibration with the type 2 diabetes cohort from the REACH Registry (goodness-of-fit P = 0.78). CONCLUSIONS: The expanded TRS 2°P provides a practical and well-calibrated risk prediction tool for patients with type 2 diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk of developing heart failure. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors reduce the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) in patients with T2DM. We aimed to develop and validate a practical clinical risk score for HHF in patients with T2DM and assess whether this score can identify high-risk patients with T2DM who have the greatest reduction in risk for HHF with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor.Methods: We developed a clinical risk score for HHF in 8212 patients with T2DM in the placebo arm of SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin Assessment of Vascular Outcomes Recorded in Patients With Diabetes Mellitus-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 53). Candidate variables were assessed using multivariable Cox regression, and independent clinical risk indicators achieving statistical significance of P<0.001 were included in the risk score. We externally validated the score in 8578 patients with T2DM in the placebo arm of DECLARE-TIMI 58 (Dapagliflozin Effect on Cardiovascular Events-Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction 58). The relative and absolute risk reductions in HHF with the sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitor dapagliflozin were assessed by baseline HHF risk.Results: Five clinical variables were independent risk predictors of HHF: prior heart failure, history of atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio. A simple integer-based score (0-7 points) using these predictors identified a >20-fold gradient of HHF risk (P for trend <0.001) in both the derivation and validation cohorts, with C indices of 0.81 and 0.78, respectively. Although relative risk reductions with dapagliflozin were similar for patients across the risk scores (25%-34%), absolute risk reductions were greater in those at higher baseline risk (1-sided P for trend=0.04), with high-risk (2 points) and very-high-risk (≥3 points) patients having 1.5% and 2.7% absolute reductions in Kaplan-Meier estimates of HHF risk at 4 years, respectively.Conclusions: Risk stratification using a novel clinical risk score for HHF in patients with T2DM identifies patients at higher risk for HHF who derive greater absolute benefit from sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibition.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifiers: NCT01107886 and NCT01730534. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Metformin is first-line therapy for type 2 diabetes mellitus, although its effects on the cardiovascular system are unproved.Methods: In this post hoc analysis, patients in SAVOR-TIMI 53 (Saxagliptin and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus) with baseline biomarker samples (n=12 156) were classified as ever versus never taking metformin during the trial period. Associations between metformin exposure and outcomes were estimated with inverse probability of treatment weighting Cox modeling for the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke, as well as cardiovascular death and all-cause mortality, with biomarkers included as covariates. Additional sensitivity analyses included propensity score matching and Cox multivariable models.Results: Of the 12 156 patients with baseline biomarker samples, 8971 (74%) had metformin exposure, 1611 (13%) had prior heart failure, and 1332 (11%) had at least moderate chronic kidney disease (estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤45 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2). Metformin use was associated with no difference in risk for the composite end point (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.92 [95% CI, 0.76-1.11]) but lower risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio for inverse probability of treatment weighting, 0.75 [95% CI, 0.59-0.95]). There was no significant relationship between metformin use and these end points in patients with prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease.Conclusions: In a cohort of 12 156 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and high cardiovascular risk, metformin use was associated with lower rates of all-cause mortality, including after adjustment for clinical variables and biomarkers, but not lower rates of the composite end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke. This association was most apparent in patients without prior heart failure or moderate to severe chronic kidney disease.Clinical Trial Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01107886. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]