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Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), vortex formation, and final breakdown dates are key highlight points of the stratospheric polar vortex. These phenomena are relevant for stratosphere‐troposphere coupling, which explains the interest in understanding their future changes. However, up to now, there is not a clear consensus on which projected changes to the polar vortex are robust, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, possibly due to short data record or relatively moderate CO2 forcing. The new simulations performed under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6, together with the long daily data requirements of the DynVarMIP project in preindustrial and quadrupled CO2 (4xCO2) forcing simulations provide a new opportunity to revisit this topic by overcoming the limitations mentioned above. In this study, we analyze this new model output to document the change, if any, in the frequency of SSWs under 4xCO2 forcing. Our analysis reveals a large disagreement across the models as to the sign of this change, even though most models show a statistically significant change. As for the near‐surface response to SSWs, the models, however, are in good agreement as to this signal over the North Atlantic: There is no indication of a change under 4xCO2 forcing. Over the Pacific, however, the change is more uncertain, with some indication that there will be a larger mean response. Finally, the models show robust changes to the seasonal cycle in the stratosphere. Specifically, we find a longer duration of the stratospheric polar vortex and thus a longer season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling. Key Points: The tropospheric signal of sudden stratospheric warming (SSWs) in the North Atlantic does not change under 4xCO2 forcingThere is high uncertainty in changes of SSW frequency under 4xCO2 forcing; single models show the rate to be significantly halved or doubledThe boreal polar vortex will form earlier and disappear later under increased CO2, extending the season of stratosphere‐troposphere coupling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The separate climate effects of middle-atmospheric and tropospheric CO2 doubling have been simulated and analyzed with the ECHAM middle-atmosphere climate model. To this end, the CO2 concentration has been separately doubled in the middle-atmosphere, the troposphere, and the entire atmosphere, and the results have been compared to a control run. During NH winter, the simulated uniformly doubled CO2 climate shows an increase of the stratospheric residual circulation, a small warming in the Arctic lower stratosphere, a weakening of the zonal winds in the Arctic middle-atmosphere, an increase of the NH midlatitude tropospheric westerlies, and a poleward shift of the SH tropospheric westerlies. The uniformly doubled CO2 response in most regions is approximately equal to the sum of the separate responses to tropospheric and middle-atmospheric CO2 doubling. The increase of the stratospheric residual circulation can be attributed for about two-thirds to the tropospheric CO2 doubling and one-third to the middle-atmospheric CO2 doubling. This increase contributes to the Arctic lower-stratospheric warming and, through the thermal wind relationship, to the weakening of the Arctic middle-atmospheric zonal wind. The increase of the tropospheric NH midlatitude westerlies can be attributed mainly to the middle-atmospheric CO2 doubling, indicating the crucial importance of the middle-atmospheric CO2 doubling for the tropospheric climate change. Results from an additional experiment show that the CO2 doubling above 10 hPa, which is above the top of many current GCMs, also causes significant changes in the tropospheric climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere has been investigated by analysing low-frequency variations in: (1) the meridional mass flux into the polar cap (north of 60°N), computed separately for the stratosphere and the troposphere; (2) the polar cap mean surface pressure, and (3) the surface level meridional pressure gradient and zonal wind around 60°N. The analysis has been done for the 1979–93 Northern Hemisphere (NH) winters, using ECMWF reanalysis data. The results show that for all winters the meridional mass flux variations in the stratosphere precede those in the troposphere, by about one day. This result can also be obtained qualitatively with a very simple model, based on the zonally averaged zonal and meridional momentum equations. The lag is not very sensitive to the latitude of the southern boundary of the polar cap. The analysed variations in the polar cap mean surface pressure associated with variations in the meridional mass flux, determine most of the variability in the analysed meridional surface pressure gradient and the associated surface zonal wind around 60°N. The results also show that in the stratosphere the Coriolis force associated with the zonal-mean meridional wind is in near-balance with the convergence of the eddy momentum flux, and in the lower troposphere with the zonal frictional force. In summary, the results indicate that in the extratropical northern winter hemisphere, low-frequency variations in the meridional wind in the stratosphere induce low-frequency variations in the zonal wind near the surface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]