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The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought-induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2-hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light- and water-use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter-annual variation, El Niño-related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2-hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2-hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry-season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter-annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline.

Understanding variation in leaf functional traits-including rates of photosynthesis and respiration and concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus-is a fundamental challenge in plant ecophysiology. When expressed per unit leaf area, these traits typically increase with leaf mass per area (LMA) within species but are roughly independent of LMA across the global flora. LMA is determined by mass components with different biological functions, including photosynthetic mass that largely determines metabolic rates and contains most nitrogen and phosphorus, and structural mass that affects toughness and leaf lifespan (LL). A possible explanation for the contrasting trait relationships is that most LMA variation within species is associated with variation in photosynthetic mass, whereas most LMA variation across the global flora is associated with variation in structural mass. This hypothesis leads to the predictions that (i) gas exchange rates and nutrient concentrations per unit leaf area should increase strongly with LMA across species assemblages with low LL variance but should increase weakly with LMA across species assemblages with high LL variance and that (ii) controlling for LL variation should increase the strength of the above LMA relationships. We present analyses of intra- and interspecific trait variation from three tropical forest sites and interspecific analyses within functional groups in a global dataset that are consistent with the above predictions. Our analysis suggests that the qualitatively different trait relationships exhibited by different leaf assemblages can be understood by considering the degree to which photosynthetic and structural mass components contribute to LMA variation in a given assemblage.

Summary: Nutrient limitation may constrain the ability of recovering and mature tropical forests to serve as a carbon sink. However, it is unclear to what extent trees can utilize nutrient acquisition strategies – especially root phosphatase enzymes and mycorrhizal symbioses – to overcome low nutrient availability across secondary succession.Using a large‐scale, full factorial nitrogen and phosphorus fertilization experiment of 76 plots along a secondary successional gradient in lowland wet tropical forests of Panama, we tested the extent to which root phosphatase enzyme activity and mycorrhizal colonization are flexible, and if investment shifts over succession, reflective of changing nutrient limitation. We also conducted a meta‐analysis to test how tropical trees adjust these strategies in response to nutrient additions and across succession.We find that tropical trees are dynamic, adjusting investment in strategies – particularly root phosphatase – in response to changing nutrient conditions through succession. These changes reflect a shift from strong nitrogen to weak phosphorus limitation over succession. Our meta‐analysis findings were consistent with our field study; we found more predictable responses of root phosphatase than mycorrhizal colonization to nutrient availability.Our findings suggest that nutrient acquisition strategies respond to nutrient availability and demand in tropical forests, likely critical for alleviating nutrient limitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of New Phytologist is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Global Change Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Understanding the mechanisms that promote the coexistence of hundreds of species over small areas in tropical forest remains a challenge. Many tropical tree species are presumed to be functionally equivalent shade tolerant species but exist on a continuum of performance trade‐offs between survival in shade and the ability to quickly grow in sunlight. These trade‐offs can promote coexistence by reducing fitness differences.Variation in plant functional traits related to resource acquisition is thought to predict variation in performance among species, perhaps explaining community assembly across habitats with gradients in resource availability. Many studies have found low predictive power, however, when linking trait measurements to species demographic rates.Seedlings face different challenges recruiting on the forest floor and may exhibit different traits and/or performance trade‐offs than older individuals face in the eventual adult niche. Seed mass is the typical proxy for seedling success, but species also differ in cotyledon strategy (reserve vs. photosynthetic) or other leaf, stem and root traits. These can cause species with the same average seed mass to have divergent performance in the same habitat.We combined long‐term studies of seedling dynamics with functional trait data collected at a standard life‐history stage in three diverse neotropical forests to ask whether variation in coordinated suites of traits predicts variation among species in demographic performance.Across hundreds of species in Ecuador, Panama and Puerto Rico, we found seedlings displayed correlated suites of leaf, stem, and root traits, which strongly correlated with seed mass and cotyledon strategy. Variation among species in seedling functional traits, seed mass, and cotyledon strategy were strong predictors of trade‐offs in seedling growth and survival. These results underscore the importance of matching the ontogenetic stage of the trait measurement to the stage of demographic dynamics.Our findings highlight the importance of cotyledon strategy in addition to seed mass as a key component of seed and seedling biology in tropical forests because of the contribution of carbon reserves in storage cotyledons to reducing mortality rates and explaining the growth‐survival trade‐off among species.Synthesis: With strikingly consistent patterns across three tropical forests, we find strong evidence for the promise of functional traits to provide mechanistic links between seedling form and demographic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) include the representation of vertical gradients in leaf traits associated with modeling photosynthesis, respiration, and stomatal conductance. However, model assumptions associated with these gradients have not been tested in complex tropical forest canopies.We compared TBM representation of the vertical gradients of key leaf traits with measurements made in a tropical forest in Panama and then quantified the impact of the observed gradients on simulated canopy‐scale CO2 and water fluxes.Comparison between observed and TBM trait gradients showed divergence that impacted canopy‐scale simulations of water vapor and CO2 exchange. Notably, the ratio between the dark respiration rate and the maximum carboxylation rate was lower near the ground than at the top‐of‐canopy, leaf‐level water‐use efficiency was markedly higher at the top‐of‐canopy, and the decrease in maximum carboxylation rate from the top‐of‐canopy to the ground was less than TBM assumptions.The representation of the gradients of leaf traits in TBMs is typically derived from measurements made within‐individual plants, or, for some traits, assumed constant due to a lack of experimental data. Our work shows that these assumptions are not representative of the trait gradients observed in species‐rich, complex tropical forests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Ecology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Topographic heterogeneity and lateral subsurface flow at the hillslope scale of ≤1 km may have outsized impacts on tropical forest through their impacts on water available to plants under water-stressed conditions. However, vegetation dynamics and finer-scale hydrologic processes are not concurrently represented in Earth system models. In this study, we integrate the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) that includes the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), with a three-dimensional hydrology model (ParFlow) to explicitly resolve hillslope topography and subsurface flow and perform numerical experiments to understand how hillslope-scale hydrologic processes modulate vegetation along water availability gradients at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. Our simulations show that groundwater table depth (WTD) can play a large role in governing aboveground biomass (AGB) when drought-induced tree mortality is triggered by hydraulic failure. Analyzing the simulations using random forest (RF) models, we find that the domain-wide simulated AGB and WTD can be well predicted by static topographic attributes, including surface elevation, slope, and convexity, and adding soil moisture or groundwater table depth as predictors further improves the RF models. Different model representations of mortality due to hydraulic failure can change the dominant topographic driver for the simulated AGB. Contrary to the simulations, the observed AGB in the well-drained 50 ha forest census plot within BCI cannot be well predicted by the RF models using topographic attributes and observed soil moisture as predictors, suggesting other factors such as nutrient status may have a larger influence on the observed AGB. The new coupled model may be useful for understanding the diverse impact of local heterogeneity by isolating the water availability and nutrient availability from the other external and internal factors in ecosystem modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Among tropical forests, lianas are predicted to have a growth advantage over trees during seasonal drought, with substantial implications for tree and forest dynamics. We tested the hypotheses that lianas maintain higher water status than trees during seasonal drought and that lianas maximize leaf cover to match high, dry‐season light conditions, while trees are more limited by moisture availability during the dry season.We monitored the seasonal dynamics of predawn and midday leaf water potentials and leaf phenology for branches of 16 liana and 16 tree species in the canopies of two lowland tropical forests with contrasting rainfall regimes in Panama.In a wet, weakly seasonal forest, lianas maintained higher water balance than trees and maximized their leaf cover during dry‐season conditions, when light availability was high, while trees experienced drought stress. In a drier, strongly seasonal forest, lianas and trees displayed similar dry season reductions in leaf cover following strong decreases in soil water availability.Greater soil moisture availability and a higher capacity to maintain water status allow lianas to maintain the turgor potentials that are critical for plant growth in a wet and weakly seasonal forest but not in a dry and strongly seasonal forest. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The representation of stomatal regulation of transpiration and CO2 assimilation is key to forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. Given its importance in determining the relationship between forest productivity and climate, accurate and mechanistic model representation of the relationship between stomatal conductance (gs) and assimilation is crucial.We assess possible physiological and mechanistic controls on the estimation of the g1 (stomatal slope, inversely proportional to water use efficiency) and g0 (stomatal intercept) parameters, using diurnal gas exchange surveys and leaf‐level response curves of six tropical broadleaf evergreen tree species.g1 estimated from ex situ response curves averaged 50% less than g1 estimated from survey data. While g0 and g1 varied between leaves of different phenological stages, the trend was not consistent among species. We identified a diurnal trend associated with g1 and g0 that significantly improved model projections of diurnal trends in transpiration.The accuracy of modeled gs can be improved by accounting for variation in stomatal behavior across diurnal periods, and between measurement approaches, rather than focusing on phenological variation in stomatal behavior. Additional investigation into the primary mechanisms responsible for diurnal variation in g1 will be required to account for this phenomenon in land‐surface models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]