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Seedlings in moist tropical forests must cope with deep shade and seasonal drought. However, the interspecific relationship between seedling performance in shade and drought remains unsettled. We quantified spatiotemporal variation in shade and drought in the seasonal moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and estimated responses of naturally regenerating seedlings as the slope of the relationship between performance and shade or drought intensity. Our performance metrics were relative height growth and first-year survival. We investigated the relationship between shade and drought responses for up to 63 species. There was an interspecific trade-off in species responses to shade versus species responses to dry season intensity; species that performed worse in the shade did not suffer during severe dry seasons and vice versa. This trade-off emerged in part from the absence of species that performed particularly well or poorly in both drought and shade. If drought stress in tropical forests increases with climate change and as solar radiation is higher during droughts, the trade-off may reinforce a shift towards species that resist drought but perform poorly in the shade by releasing them from deep shade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Local tree species distributions in tropical forests correlate strongly with soil water availability. However, it is unclear how species distributions are shaped by demographic responses to soil water availability. Specifically, it remains unknown how growth affects species distributions along water availability gradients relative to mortality.We quantified spatial variation in dry season soil water potential (SWP) in the moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, and used a hierarchical Bayesian approach to evaluate relationships between demographic responses of naturally regenerating seedlings to SWP (RGRs and first‐year mortality) and species distributions along the SWP gradient for 62 species. We also tested whether species that were more abundant at the wet or dry end of the gradient performed better (a) at their "home end" of the gradient ("best at home" hypothesis) and (b) "at home" compared to co‐occurring species ("home advantage" hypothesis).Four and five species responded significantly to SWP in terms of growth or mortality respectively. Growth (but not mortality) responses were positively related to species distributions along the SWP gradient; species with a more positive (negative) growth response to SWP were more abundant at higher (lower) SWP, that is, at wetter (drier) sites. In addition, wet distributed species grew faster on the wet end of the SWP gradient than on the dry end ("best at home") and grew faster on the wet end than dry distributed species ("home advantage"). Mortality rates declined with seedling size for all species. Thus, seedling growth responses to SWP indirectly shaped local species distributions by influencing seedling size and thereby mortality risk.Synthesis. By demonstrating how growth responses to spatial variation in soil water availability affect species distributions, we identified a demographic process underlying niche differentiation on hydrological gradients in tropical forests. Recognizing the role of these growth responses in shaping species distributions should improve the understanding of tropical forest composition and diversity along rainfall gradients and with climate change. This study shows that growth responses to soil moisture play an important role in shaping the distribution of tree seedlings along a local soil moisture gradient. Species that grew well on the wet end of the gradient were more abundant there because they became taller more quickly, reducing their mortality risk, and because they grew faster than dry distributed species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The fate of tropical forests under climate change is unclear as a result, in part, of the uncertainty in projected changes in precipitation and in the ability of vegetation models to capture the effects of drought‐induced mortality on aboveground biomass (AGB). We evaluated the ability of a terrestrial biosphere model with demography and hydrodynamics (Ecosystem Demography, ED2‐hydro) to simulate AGB and mortality of four tropical tree plant functional types (PFTs) that operate along light‐ and water‐use axes. Model predictions were compared with observations of canopy trees at Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. We then assessed the implications of eight hypothetical precipitation scenarios, including increased annual precipitation, reduced inter‐annual variation, El Niño‐related droughts and drier wet or dry seasons, on AGB and functional diversity of the model forest. When forced with observed meteorology, ED2‐hydro predictions capture multiple BCI benchmarks. ED2‐hydro predicts that AGB will be sustained under lower rainfall via shifts in the functional composition of the forest, except under the drier dry‐season scenario. These results support the hypothesis that inter‐annual variation in mean and seasonal precipitation promotes the coexistence of functionally diverse PFTs because of the relative differences in mortality rates. If the hydroclimate becomes chronically drier or wetter, functional evenness related to drought tolerance may decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Lianas are structural parasites of trees and reduce individual host tree growth, survival and fecundity. Thus, liana infestation is expected to affect tree population growth rates, with potentially different effects in different species depending on the frequency of liana infestation and the impact of liana infestation on population growth rates. Previous studies have documented the myriad negative effects of lianas on trees and variation in liana infestation among tree species; however, no study has quantified the impact of liana infestation on individual tree species population growth rates. Lianas are increasing in abundance in multiple Neotropical sites, which may have profound consequences for tree species composition if lianas differentially affect host tree species population growth. Here, we use long‐term data to evaluate the effects of liana infestation on the reproduction, growth, survival and ultimately population growth rates of dozens of tree species from Barro Colorado Island, Panama. We then test whether liana infestation affects tree species differentially with respect to two axes of life‐history variation: adult stature and position along the fast–slow axis, a measure of shade tolerance. Liana infestation decreased tree growth, survival and reproduction, with the strongest effects on survival in fast‐growing, light‐demanding species and on reproduction in large‐statured species. In combination, these effects reduced tree population growth rates such that liana‐infested populations declined by an average of 1.4% annually relative to conspecific liana‐free populations. The reduction in population growth rates was greatest among fast‐growing species and smaller in slow‐growing species. Synthesis. Our results demonstrate that liana infestation has strong negative effects on tree population growth rates, which vary systematically among tree species with tree life history. The finding that liana infestation is more harmful to fast‐growing tree species appears to be at odds with the general expectations in the literature. We propose that this is likely due to survivorship bias, as infestation greatly decreases survival in fast‐growing species such that the observable sample is biased towards those that survived and liana‐free. In combination with data on how tree species vary in liana infestation rates, these results provide a basis for predicting the impacts of changes in liana abundance on tree species composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Dispersal and density dependence are major determinants of spatial structure, population dynamics and coexistence for tropical forest plants. However, because these two processes can jointly influence spatial structure at similar scales, analysing spatial patterns to separate and quantify them is often difficult. Species functional traits can be useful indicators of dispersal and density dependence. However, few methods exist for linking functional traits to quantitative estimates of these processes that can be compared across multiple species. We analysed static spatial patterns of woody plant populations in the 50 ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama with methods that distinguished scale‐specific differences in species aggregation. We then tested how these differences related to seven functional traits: growth form, dispersal syndrome, tree canopy layer, adult stature, seed mass, wood density and shade tolerance. Next, we fit analytically tractable spatial moment models to the observed spatial structure of species characterized by similar trait values, which allowed us to estimate relationships of functional traits with the spatial scale of dispersal, and the spatial scale and intensity of negative density dependence. Our results confirm that lianas are more aggregated than trees, and exhibit increased aggregation within canopy gaps. For trees, increased seed mass, wood density and shade tolerance were associated with less intense negative density dependence, while higher canopy layers and increased stature were associated with decreased aggregation and better dispersal. Spatial structure for trees was also strongly determined by dispersal syndrome. Averaged across all spatial scales, zoochory was more effective than wind dispersal, which was more effective than explosive dispersal. However, at intermediate scales, zoochory was associated with more aggregation than wind dispersal, potentially because of differences in short‐distance dispersal and the intensity of negative density dependence. Synthesis. We develop new tools for identifying significant associations between functional traits and spatial structure, and for linking these associations to quantitative estimates of dispersal scale and the strength and scale of density dependence. Our results help clarify how these processes influence woody plant species on Barro Colorado, and demonstrate how these tools can be applied to other sites and systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multiple anthropogenic drivers affect every natural community, and there is broad interest in using functional traits to understand and predict the consequences for future biodiversity. There is, however, no consensus regarding the choice of analytical methods. We contrast species- and community-level analyses of change in the functional composition for four traits related to drought tolerance using three decades of repeat censuses of trees in the 50-ha Forest Dynamics Plot on Barro Colorado Island, Panama. Community trait distributions shifted significantly through time, which may indicate a shift toward more drought tolerant species. However, at the species level, changes in abundance were unrelated to trait values. To reconcile these seemingly contrasting results, we evaluated species-specific contributions to the directional shifts observed at the community level. Abundance changes of just one to six of 312 species were responsible for the community-level shifts observed for each trait. Our results demonstrate that directional changes in community-level functional composition can result from idiosyncratic change in a few species rather than widespread community-wide changes associated with functional traits. Future analyses of directional change in natural communities should combine community-, species-, and possibly individual-level analyses to uncover relationships with function that can improve understanding and enable prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]