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Tropical forests face increasing climate risk 1,2 , yet our ability to predict their response to climate change is limited by poor understanding of their resistance to water stress. Although xylem embolism resistance thresholds (for example, [Formula: see text] 50 ) and hydraulic safety margins (for example, HSM 50 ) are important predictors of drought-induced mortality risk 3-5 , little is known about how these vary across Earth's largest tropical forest. Here, we present a pan-Amazon, fully standardized hydraulic traits dataset and use it to assess regional variation in drought sensitivity and hydraulic trait ability to predict species distributions and long-term forest biomass accumulation. Parameters [Formula: see text] 50 and HSM 50 vary markedly across the Amazon and are related to average long-term rainfall characteristics. Both [Formula: see text] 50 and HSM 50 influence the biogeographical distribution of Amazon tree species. However, HSM 50 was the only significant predictor of observed decadal-scale changes in forest biomass. Old-growth forests with wide HSM 50 are gaining more biomass than are low HSM 50 forests. We propose that this may be associated with a growth-mortality trade-off whereby trees in forests consisting of fast-growing species take greater hydraulic risks and face greater mortality risk. Moreover, in regions of more pronounced climatic change, we find evidence that forests are losing biomass, suggesting that species in these regions may be operating beyond their hydraulic limits. Continued climate change is likely to further reduce HSM 50 in the Amazon 6,7 , with strong implications for the Amazon carbon sink., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The continued functioning of tropical forests under climate change depends on their resilience to drought and heat. However, there is little understanding of how tropical forests will respond to combinations of these stresses, and no field studies to date have explicitly evaluated whether sustained drought alters sensitivity to temperature. We measured the temperature response of net photosynthesis, foliar respiration and the maximum quantum efficiency of photosystem II (F v /F m ) of eight hyper-dominant Amazonian tree species at the world's longest-running tropical forest drought experiment, to investigate the effect of drought on forest thermal sensitivity. Despite a 0.6°C-2°C increase in canopy air temperatures following long-term drought, no change in overall thermal sensitivity of net photosynthesis or respiration was observed. However, photosystem II tolerance to extreme-heat damage (T 50 ) was reduced from 50.0 ± 0.3°C to 48.5 ± 0.3°C under drought. Our results suggest that long-term reductions in precipitation, as projected across much of Amazonia by climate models, are unlikely to greatly alter the response of tropical forests to rising mean temperatures but may increase the risk of leaf thermal damage during heatwaves., (© 2022 The Authors. Plant, Cell & Environment published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Tropical forests store 40-50 per cent of terrestrial vegetation carbon 1 . However, spatial variations in aboveground live tree biomass carbon (AGC) stocks remain poorly understood, in particular in tropical montane forests 2 . Owing to climatic and soil changes with increasing elevation 3 , AGC stocks are lower in tropical montane forests compared with lowland forests 2 . Here we assemble and analyse a dataset of structurally intact old-growth forests (AfriMont) spanning 44 montane sites in 12 African countries. We find that montane sites in the AfriMont plot network have a mean AGC stock of 149.4 megagrams of carbon per hectare (95% confidence interval 137.1-164.2), which is comparable to lowland forests in the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network 4 and about 70 per cent and 32 per cent higher than averages from plot networks in montane 2,5,6 and lowland 7 forests in the Neotropics, respectively. Notably, our results are two-thirds higher than the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change default values for these forests in Africa 8 . We find that the low stem density and high abundance of large trees of African lowland forests 4 is mirrored in the montane forests sampled. This carbon store is endangered: we estimate that 0.8 million hectares of old-growth African montane forest have been lost since 2000. We provide country-specific montane forest AGC stock estimates modelled from our plot network to help to guide forest conservation and reforestation interventions. Our findings highlight the need for conserving these biodiverse 9,10 and carbon-rich ecosystems., (© 2021. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Non-structural carbohydrates (NSC) are major substrates for plant metabolism and have been implicated in mediating drought-induced tree mortality. Despite their significance, NSC dynamics in tropical forests remain little studied. We present leaf and branch NSC data for 82 Amazon canopy tree species in six sites spanning a broad precipitation gradient. During the wet season, total NSC (NSC T ) concentrations in both organs were remarkably similar across communities. However, NSC T and its soluble sugar (SS) and starch components varied much more across sites during the dry season. Notably, the proportion of leaf NSC T in the form of SS (SS:NSC T ) increased greatly in the dry season in almost all species in the driest sites, implying an important role of SS in mediating water stress in these sites. This adjustment of leaf NSC balance was not observed in tree species less-adapted to water deficit, even under exceptionally dry conditions. Thus, leaf carbon metabolism may help to explain floristic sorting across water availability gradients in Amazonia and enable better prediction of forest responses to future climate change.

The sensitivity of tropical forest carbon to climate is a key uncertainty in predicting global climate change. Although short-term drying and warming are known to affect forests, it is unknown if such effects translate into long-term responses. Here, we analyze 590 permanent plots measured across the tropics to derive the equilibrium climate controls on forest carbon. Maximum temperature is the most important predictor of aboveground biomass (-9.1 megagrams of carbon per hectare per degree Celsius), primarily by reducing woody productivity, and has a greater impact per °C in the hottest forests (>32.2°C). Our results nevertheless reveal greater thermal resilience than observations of short-term variation imply. To realize the long-term climate adaptation potential of tropical forests requires both protecting them and stabilizing Earth's climate., (Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Structurally intact tropical forests sequestered about half of the global terrestrial carbon uptake over the 1990s and early 2000s, removing about 15 per cent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions 1-3 . Climate-driven vegetation models typically predict that this tropical forest 'carbon sink' will continue for decades 4,5 . Here we assess trends in the carbon sink using 244 structurally intact African tropical forests spanning 11 countries, compare them with 321 published plots from Amazonia and investigate the underlying drivers of the trends. The carbon sink in live aboveground biomass in intact African tropical forests has been stable for the three decades to 2015, at 0.66 tonnes of carbon per hectare per year (95 per cent confidence interval 0.53-0.79), in contrast to the long-term decline in Amazonian forests 6 . Therefore the carbon sink responses of Earth's two largest expanses of tropical forest have diverged. The difference is largely driven by carbon losses from tree mortality, with no detectable multi-decadal trend in Africa and a long-term increase in Amazonia. Both continents show increasing tree growth, consistent with the expected net effect of rising atmospheric carbon dioxide and air temperature 7-9 . Despite the past stability of the African carbon sink, our most intensively monitored plots suggest a post-2010 increase in carbon losses, delayed compared to Amazonia, indicating asynchronous carbon sink saturation on the two continents. A statistical model including carbon dioxide, temperature, drought and forest dynamics accounts for the observed trends and indicates a long-term future decline in the African sink, whereas the Amazonian sink continues to weaken rapidly. Overall, the uptake of carbon into Earth's intact tropical forests peaked in the 1990s. Given that the global terrestrial carbon sink is increasing in size, independent observations indicating greater recent carbon uptake into the Northern Hemisphere landmass 10 reinforce our conclusion that the intact tropical forest carbon sink has already peaked. This saturation and ongoing decline of the tropical forest carbon sink has consequences for policies intended to stabilize Earth's climate.

Quantifying carbon dynamics in forests is critical for understanding their role in long-term climate regulation 1-4 . Yet little is known about tree longevity in tropical forests 3,5-8 , a factor that is vital for estimating carbon persistence 3,4 . Here we calculate mean carbon age (the period that carbon is fixed in trees 7 ) in different strata of African tropical forests using (1) growth-ring records with a unique timestamp accurately demarcating 66 years of growth in one site and (2) measurements of diameter increments from the African Tropical Rainforest Observation Network (23 sites). We find that in spite of their much smaller size, in understory trees mean carbon age (74 years) is greater than in sub-canopy (54 years) and canopy (57 years) trees and similar to carbon age in emergent trees (66 years). The remarkable carbon longevity in the understory results from slow and aperiodic growth as an adaptation to limited resource availability 9-11 . Our analysis also reveals that while the understory represents a small share (11%) of the carbon stock 12,13 , it contributes disproportionally to the forest carbon sink (20%). We conclude that accounting for the diversity of carbon age and carbon sequestration among different forest strata is critical for effective conservation management 14-16 and for accurate modelling of carbon cycling 4 .