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A sequential multiple assignment randomized trial, which incorporates multiple stages of randomization, is a popular approach for collecting data to inform personalized and adaptive treatments. There is an extensive literature on statistical methods to analyze data collected in sequential multiple assignment randomized trials and estimate the optimal dynamic treatment regime. Q-learning with linear regression is widely used for this purpose due to its ease of implementation. However, model misspecification is a common problem with this approach, and little attention has been given to the impact of model misspecification when treatment effects are heterogeneous across subjects. This article describes the integrative impact of two possible types of model misspecification related to treatment effect heterogeneity: omitted early-stage treatment effects in late-stage main effect model, and violated linearity assumption between pseudo-outcomes and predictors despite non-linearity arising from the optimization operation. The proposed method, aiming to deal with both types of misspecification concomitantly, builds interactive models into modified parametric Q-learning with Murphy's regret function. Simulations show that the proposed method is robust to both sources of model misspecification. The proposed method is applied to a two-stage sequential multiple assignment randomized trial with embedded tailoring aimed at reducing binge drinking in first-year college students. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent sequential multiple assignment randomized trials, outcomes were assessed multiple times to evaluate longer-term impacts of the dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs). Q-learning requires a scalar response to identify the optimal DTR. Inverse probability weighting may be used to estimate the optimal outcome trajectory, but it is inefficient, susceptible to model mis-specification, and unable to characterize how treatment effects manifest over time. We propose modified Q-learning with generalized estimating equations to address these limitations and apply it to the M-bridge trial, which evaluates adaptive interventions to prevent problematic drinking among college freshmen. Simulation studies demonstrate our proposed method improves efficiency and robustness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aims: Secondary analyses of randomized clinical trials often seek to identify subgroups with differential treatment effects. These discoveries can help guide individual treatment decisions based on patient characteristics and identify populations for which additional treatments are needed. Traditional analyses require researchers to pre-specify potential subgroups to reduce the risk of reporting spurious results. There is a need for methods that can detect such subgroups without a priori specification while allowing researchers to control the probability of falsely detecting heterogeneous subgroups when treatment effects are uniform across the study population. Methods: We propose a permutation procedure for tuning parameter selection that allows for type I error control when testing for heterogeneous treatment effects framed within the Virtual Twins procedure for subgroup identification. We verify that the type I error rate can be controlled at the nominal rate and investigate the power for detecting heterogeneous effects when present through extensive simulation studies. We apply our method to a secondary analysis of data from a randomized trial of very low nicotine content cigarettes. Results: In the absence of type I error control, the observed type I error rate for Virtual Twins was between 99% and 100%. In contrast, models tuned via the proposed permutation were able to control the type I error rate and detect heterogeneous effects when present. An application of our approach to a recently completed trial of very low nicotine content cigarettes identified several variables with potentially heterogeneous treatment effects. Conclusions: The proposed permutation procedure allows researchers to engage in secondary analyses of clinical trials for treatment effect heterogeneity while maintaining the type I error rate without pre-specifying subgroups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Treatment effect heterogeneity occurs when individual characteristics influence the effect of a treatment. We propose a novel approach that combines prognostic score matching and conditional inference trees to characterize effect heterogeneity of a randomized binary treatment. One key feature that distinguishes our method from alternative approaches is that it controls the Type I error rate, that is, the probability of identifying effect heterogeneity if none exists and retains the underlying subgroups. This feature makes our technique particularly appealing in the context of clinical trials, where there may be significant costs associated with erroneously declaring that effects differ across population subgroups. Treatment effect heterogeneity trees are able to identify heterogeneous subgroups, characterize the relevant subgroups and estimate the associated treatment effects. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method using a comprehensive simulation study and illustrate our method using a nutrition trial dataset to evaluate effect heterogeneity within a patient population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of statistical approaches have been proposed for incorporating supplemental information in randomized clinical trials. Existing methods often compare the marginal treatment effects to evaluate the degree of consistency between sources. Dissimilar marginal treatment effects would either lead to increased bias or down-weighting of the supplemental data. This represents a limitation in the presence of treatment effect heterogeneity, in which case the marginal treatment effect may differ between the sources solely due to differences between the study populations. We introduce the concept of covariate-adjusted exchangeability, in which differences in the marginal treatment effect can be explained by differences in the distributions of the effect modifiers. The potential outcomes framework is used to conceptualize covariate-adjusted and marginal exchangeability. We utilize a linear model and the existing multisource exchangeability models framework to facilitate borrowing when marginal treatment effects are dissimilar but covariate-adjusted exchangeability holds. We investigate the operating characteristics of our method using simulations. We also illustrate our method using data from two clinical trials of very low nicotine content cigarettes. Our method has the ability to incorporate supplemental information in a wider variety of situations than when only marginal exchangeability is considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Aerobic exercise has shown inconsistent cognitive effects in older adults with Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia.Objective: To examine the immediate and longitudinal effects of 6-month cycling on cognition in older adults with AD dementia.Methods: This randomized controlled trial randomized 96 participants (64 to cycling and 32 to stretching for six months) and followed them for another six months. The intervention was supervised, moderate-intensity cycling for 20-50 minutes, 3 times a week for six months. The control was light-intensity stretching. Cognition was assessed at baseline, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months using the AD Assessment Scale-Cognition (ADAS-Cog). Discrete cognitive domains were measured using the AD Uniform Data Set battery.Results: The participants were 77.4±6.8 years old with 15.6±2.9 years of education, and 55% were male. The 6-month change in ADAS-Cog was 1.0±4.6 (cycling) and 0.1±4.1 (stretching), which were both significantly less than the natural 3.2±6.3-point increase observed naturally with disease progression. The 12-month change was 2.4±5.2 (cycling) and 2.2±5.7 (control). ADAS-Cog did not differ between groups at 6 (p = 0.386) and 12 months (p = 0.856). There were no differences in the 12-month rate of change in ADAS-Cog (0.192 versus 0.197, p = 0.967), memory (-0.012 versus -0.019, p = 0.373), executive function (-0.020 versus -0.012, p = 0.383), attention (-0.035 versus -0.033, p = 0.908), or language (-0.028 versus -0.026, p = 0.756).Conclusion: Exercise may reduce decline in global cognition in older adults with mild-to-moderate AD dementia. Aerobic exercise did not show superior cognitive effects to stretching in our pilot trial, possibly due to the lack of power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unbiased estimation of causal effects with observational data requires adjustment for confounding variables that are related to both the outcome and treatment assignment. Standard variable selection techniques aim to maximize predictive ability of the outcome model, but they ignore covariate associations with treatment and may not adjust for important confounders weakly associated to outcome. We propose a novel method for estimating causal effects that simultaneously considers models for both outcome and treatment, which we call the bilevel spike and slab causal estimator (BSSCE). By using a Bayesian formulation, BSSCE estimates the posterior distribution of all model parameters and provides straightforward and reliable inference. Spike and slab priors are used on each covariate coefficient which aim to minimize the mean squared error of the treatment effect estimator. Theoretical properties of the treatment effect estimator are derived justifying the prior used in BSSCE. Simulations show that BSSCE can substantially reduce mean squared error over numerous methods and performs especially well with large numbers of covariates, including situations where the number of covariates is greater than the sample size. We illustrate BSSCE by estimating the causal effect of vasoactive therapy vs. fluid resuscitation on hypotensive episode length for patients in the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care III critical care database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of very low nicotine content (VLNC) cigarettes indicates that smokers randomized to VLNC cigarettes had significantly lower cigarette use, dependence, and biomarkers of exposure than smokers randomized to normal nicotine content control cigarettes. In these trials, a substantial number of participants did not adhere to their randomized treatment assignment, i.e., they used commercial cigarettes not provided by the trial in place of or in addition to the VLNC cigarettes provided by the trial. As with most RCTs, the analysis of these trials followed the intention-to-treat principle, where participants are analyzed according to their randomized treatment assignment regardless of adherence. Alternately, the analysis of an RCT could focus on the estimation and testing of the causal effect of the intervention, which is the treatment effect if all subjects were to adhere to their randomized treatment assignment. In this commentary, we compare these two approaches, highlighting the important role of causal estimation and inference for evaluating the regulatory effect of a nicotine standard for cigarettes. Additionally, we review the results of the secondary analyses of randomized trials of VLNC cigarettes using causal inference methodology to account for non-adherence to the assigned treatment and discuss the implications for a nicotine standard for cigarettes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Tobacco Longitudinal Care study was a randomized controlled trial for smoking cessation. It demonstrated that longitudinal care for smoking cessation, in which telephone-based counseling and nicotine replacement therapy were offered for 12 months, was more effective than the standard 8-week treatment.Purpose: This study aims to identify for whom and how longitudinal care increased the likelihood of abstinence.Methods: Mediated moderation analyses were utilized across three time points.Results: There was a trend towards smokers who did not respond to treatment (i.e., were still smoking) by 21 days being more likely to be abstinent at 6 months if they received longitudinal care rather than usual care. Similarly, those who did not respond to treatment by 3 months were more likely to be abstinent at 12 months if they received longitudinal care. At both time points, the likelihood of abstinence did not differ across treatment conditions among participants who responded to treatment (i.e., quit smoking). The effect on 6-month outcomes was mediated by satisfaction and readiness to quit. Cessation self-efficacy, satisfaction, and readiness to quit mediated the effect on 12-month outcomes. The effect of treatment condition on the likelihood of abstinence at 18 months was not moderated by response to treatment at 6 months.Conclusions: Smokers who did not respond to initial treatment benefited from longitudinal care. Differential effects of treatment condition were not observed among those who responded to early treatment. Conditional assignment to longitudinal care may be useful. Determining for whom and how interventions work over time will advance theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background/Aims: A single best endpoint for evaluating treatments of severe influenza requiring hospitalization has not been identified. A novel six-category ordinal endpoint of patient status is being used in a randomized controlled trial (FLU- Intravenous Immunoglobulin - FLU-IVIG) of intravenous immunoglobulin. We systematically examine four factors regarding the use of this ordinal endpoint that may affect power from fitting a proportional odds model: (1) deviations from the proportional odds assumption which result in the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol and which result in a diminished overall treatment effect, (2) deviations from the distribution of the placebo group assumed in the FLU- IVIG design, (3) the effect of patient misclassification among the six categories, and (4) the number of categories of the ordinal endpoint. We also consider interactions between the treatment effect (i.e. factor 1) and each other factor. Methods: We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the effect of each factor. To study factor 1, we developed an algorithm for deriving distributions of the ordinal endpoint in the two treatment groups that deviated from proportional odds while maintaining the same overall treatment effect. For factor 2, we considered placebo group distributions which were more or less skewed than the one specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol by adding or subtracting a constant from the cumulative log odds. To assess factor 3, we added misclassification between adjacent pairs of categories that depend on subjective patient/clinician assessments. For factor 4, we collapsed some categories into single categories. Results: Deviations from proportional odds reduced power at most from 80% to 77% given the same overall treatment effect as specified in the FLU-IVIG protocol. Misclassification and collapsing categories can reduce power by over 40 and 10 percentage points, respectively, when they affect categories with many patients and a discernible treatment effect. But collapsing categories that contain no treatment effect can raise power by over 20 percentage points. Differences in the distribution of the placebo group can raise power by over 20 percentage points or reduce power by over 40 percentage points depending on how patients are shifted to portions of the ordinal endpoint with a large treatment effect. Conclusion: Provided that the overall treatment effect is maintained, deviations from proportional odds marginally reduce power. However, deviations from proportional odds can modify the effect of misclassification, the number of categories, and the distribution of the placebo group on power. In general, adjacent pairs of categories with many patients should be kept separate to help ensure that power is maintained at the pre-specified level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chen et al. (2022) recently proposed a set of estimating equations that incorporate data from secondary endpoints to improve precision in parameter estimates related to a primary endpoint. We were motivated to translate their methodology to the context of randomized controlled trials to gain precision in treatment effect estimation using data from secondary endpoints. Our results suggest that this estimator cannot gain efficiency in this context because of random treatment assignment, especially when there is a treatment effect on secondary endpoints, and that further methodological work in this area is needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]