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Abstract For many years Norway has been in the forefront of promoting electromobility. Today, Norway has the world’s highest per capita fleet of plug-in electric cars. In 2021, 1.6% of the cars in the EU fleet were plug-in electric vehicles, whereas their share was 21% in Norway. Part of the successful market take-up rate is due to wide-ranging tax exemptions. Increasing plug-in electric vehicles numbers causes tax revenue losses, making exemptions unsustainable. Norway has the ambitious goal that from 2025, all newly registered cars shall be zero-emission vehicles. Keeping tax exemptions in place might be crucial for this goal. The objective of this paper is to provide information to solve this dilemma. Tax exemption reduction and abolition paths which offer a compromise between minimal effects on the development of zero-emission vehicles and tax revenues have been identified. An updated and re-calibrated version of the stock-flow-model SERAPIS was used to simulate and assess different scenarios. Results show that a controlled tax phase-in allows Norway to reach its environmental targets of 100% zero emission vehicles by 2025 and a 55% decrease of CO2-emissions in 2030 relative to 2005 while simultaneously increasing public revenues significantly.

Research has shown that most local authorities do not use models in strategy formulation or scheme design and that others who do are doubtful of their value. This paper reports on a study aimed at enhancing analytical planning tools. Firstly, barriers to modelling of policy instruments were assessed by survey and literature review. From this themes for improving the modelling of demand restraint and public transport instruments were identified as areas of main concern along with ease of use and transparency of approach. Enhancements are reported for a range of existing models including strategic, macroscopic and micro-simulation techniques. Although these are demonstrated for specific software applications the methods are transferable to other models. Finally we consider to what extent the barriers have been addressed.

This paper presents a framework for an ex ante appraisal of urban land use and transport strategies. At the core of this framework is a dynamic land use and transport interaction model. Objective functions and an optimisation routine are used to assess the effects of complex strategies formed by policy instrument combinations with different policy levels possible. The main objective of the underlying study is to promote sustainable policies. Therefore the proposed framework considers either explicitly or implicitly all five domains of the STELLA focus group 4 (environment, safety, health, land use and congestion).