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Rationale: Disease activity in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) remains highly variable, poorly understood, and difficult to predict. Objectives: To identify a predictor using short-term longitudinal changes in gene expression that forecasts future FVC decline and to characterize involved pathways and cell types. Methods: Seventy-four patients from COMET (Correlating Outcomes with Biochemical Markers to Estimate Time-Progression in IPF) cohort were dichotomized as progressors (≥10% FVC decline) or stable. Blood gene-expression changes within individuals were calculated between baseline and 4 months and regressed with future FVC status, allowing determination of expression variations, sample size, and statistical power. Pathway analyses were conducted to predict downstream effects and identify new targets. An FVC predictor for progression was constructed in COMET and validated using independent cohorts. Peripheral blood mononuclear single-cell RNA-sequencing data from healthy control subjects were used as references to characterize cell type compositions from bulk peripheral blood mononuclear RNA-sequencing data that were associated with FVC decline. Measurements and Main Results: The longitudinal model reduced gene-expression variations within stable and progressor groups, resulting in increased statistical power when compared with a cross-sectional model. The FVC predictor for progression anticipated patients with future FVC decline with 78% sensitivity and 86% specificity across independent IPF cohorts. Pattern recognition receptor pathways and mTOR pathways were downregulated and upregulated, respectively. Cellular deconvolution using single-cell RNA-sequencing data identified natural killer cells as significantly correlated with progression. Conclusions: Serial transcriptomic change predicts future FVC decline. An analysis of cell types involved in the progressor signature supports the novel involvement of natural killer cells in IPF progression.

Background: COVID-19 has been associated with Interstitial Lung Disease features. The immune transcriptomic overlap between Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis (IPF) and COVID-19 has not been investigated., Methods: we analyzed blood transcript levels of 50 genes known to predict IPF mortality in three COVID-19 and two IPF cohorts. The Scoring Algorithm of Molecular Subphenotypes (SAMS) was applied to distinguish high versus low-risk profiles in all cohorts. SAMS cutoffs derived from the COVID-19 Discovery cohort were used to predict intensive care unit (ICU) status, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. A COVID-19 Single-cell RNA-sequencing cohort was used to identify the cellular sources of the 50-gene risk profiles. The same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were used to predict mortality in the IPF cohorts., Findings: 50-gene risk profiles discriminated severe from mild COVID-19 in the Discovery cohort (P = 0·015) and predicted ICU admission, need for mechanical ventilation, and in-hospital mortality (AUC: 0·77, 0·75, and 0·74, respectively, P < 0·001) in the COVID-19 Validation cohort. In COVID-19, 50-gene expressing cells with a high-risk profile included monocytes, dendritic cells, and neutrophils, while low-risk profile-expressing cells included CD4 + , CD8 + T lymphocytes, IgG producing plasmablasts, B cells, NK, and gamma/delta T cells. Same COVID-19 SAMS cutoffs were also predictive of mortality in the University of Chicago (HR:5·26, 95%CI:1·81-15·27, P = 0·0013) and Imperial College of London (HR:4·31, 95%CI:1·81-10·23, P = 0·0016) IPF cohorts., Interpretation: 50-gene risk profiles in peripheral blood predict COVID-19 and IPF outcomes. The cellular sources of these gene expression changes suggest common innate and adaptive immune responses in both diseases., Funding: This work was supported in part by National Institute for Health Research Clinician Scientist Fellowship NIHR: CS-2013-13-017 (TMM); Action for Pulmonary Fibrosis Mike Bray fellowship (PLM); The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) through award K01-HL-130704 (AJ); The University of South Florida (USF) Academic Support Fund and the USF Foundation, Ubben Fibrosis Fund (JHM)., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest JHM has a patent titled “52-gene signature in peripheral blood identifies a genomic profile associated with increased risk of mortality and poor disease outcomes in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis” that relates to the work presented in this manuscript. IN receives consulting fees from Boehringer Ingelheim, Genentech and Parion Sciences., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Inadequate DNA repair is implicated in the pathogenesis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). However, the mechanisms that underlie inadequate DNA repair in COPD are poorly understood. We applied an integrative genomic approach to identify DNA repair genes and pathways associated with COPD severity.We measured the transcriptomic changes of 419 genes involved in DNA repair and DNA damage tolerance that occur with severe COPD in three independent cohorts (n=1129). Differentially expressed genes were confirmed with RNA sequencing and used for patient clustering. Clinical and genome-wide transcriptomic differences were assessed following cluster identification. We complemented this analysis by performing gene set enrichment analysis, Z-score and weighted gene correlation network analysis to identify transcriptomic patterns of DNA repair pathways associated with clinical measurements of COPD severity.We found 15 genes involved in DNA repair and DNA damage tolerance to be differentially expressed in severe COPD. K-means clustering of COPD cases based on this 15-gene signature identified three patient clusters with significant differences in clinical characteristics and global transcriptomic profiles. Increasing COPD severity was associated with downregulation of the nucleotide excision repair pathway.Systematic analysis of the lung tissue transcriptome of individuals with severe COPD identified DNA repair responses associated with disease severity that may underlie COPD pathogenesis., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: W. Timens reports unrestricted institutional grants from Merck, during the conduct of the study; fees paid to institution for consultancy from Pfizer, fees paid to the institution for lecturing from GSK, Chiesi, Lilly Oncology and Boehringer Ingelheim, fees paid to the institution for consultancy and lecturing, and travel costs, from Roche Diagnostics/Ventana, grants from Dutch Asthma Fund, fees for travel paid to the institution from Biotest, and fees paid to the institution for consultancy and lecturing from Merck Sharp Dohme, AstraZeneca and Novartis, outside the submitted work. Conflict of interest: N. Kaminski reports grants and personal fees for consultancy from Biogen Idec, personal fees for consultancy from Boehringer Ingelheim, Third Rock and MMI, non-financial support from Actelion and Miragen, personal fees for advisory board work from Pliant, unpaid consultancy work for Samumed, and personal fees from Numedii, outside the submitted work; in addition, N. Kaminski has a patent New Therapies in Pulmonary Fibrosis licensed, and a patent Peripheral Blood Gene Expression issued, and is a Member of the Scientific Advisory Committee, the Research Advisory Forum and the Board of the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation, and also serves as Deputy Editor of Thorax. None of the above relate to COPD., (Copyright ©ERS 2018.)