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Since the past few decades, human trajectory forecasting has been a field of active research owing to its numerous real-world applications: evacuation situation analysis, deployment of intelligent transport systems, traffic operations, to name a few. Early works handcrafted this representation based on domain knowledge. However, social interactions in crowded environments are not only diverse but often subtle. Recently, deep learning methods have outperformed their handcrafted counterparts, as they learned about human-human interactions in a more generic data-driven fashion. In this work, we present an in-depth analysis of existing deep learning-based methods for modelling social interactions. We propose two knowledge-based data-driven methods to effectively capture these social interactions. To objectively compare the performance of these interaction-based forecasting models, we develop a large scale interaction-centric benchmark TrajNet++, a significant yet missing component in the field of human trajectory forecasting. We propose novel performance metrics that evaluate the ability of a model to output socially acceptable trajectories. Experiments on TrajNet++ validate the need for our proposed metrics, and our method outperforms competitive baselines on both real-world and synthetic datasets., IEEE format, Layer-wise Relevance Propagation added

Human Trajectory Prediction (HTP) has gained much momentum in the last years and many solutions have been proposed to solve it. Proper benchmarking being a key issue for comparing methods, this paper addresses the question of evaluating how complex is a given dataset with respect to the prediction problem. For assessing a dataset complexity, we define a series of indicators around three concepts: Trajectory predictability; Trajectory regularity; Context complexity. We compare the most common datasets used in HTP in the light of these indicators and discuss what this may imply on benchmarking of HTP algorithms. Our source code is released on Github., Comment: ACCV2020

Anticipating human motion in crowded scenarios is essential for developing intelligent transportation systems, social-aware robots and advanced video surveillance applications. A key component of this task is represented by the inherently multi-modal nature of human paths which makes socially acceptable multiple futures when human interactions are involved. To this end, we propose a generative architecture for multi-future trajectory predictions based on Conditional Variational Recurrent Neural Networks (C-VRNNs). Conditioning mainly relies on prior belief maps, representing most likely moving directions and forcing the model to consider past observed dynamics in generating future positions. Human interactions are modeled with a graph-based attention mechanism enabling an online attentive hidden state refinement of the recurrent estimation. To corroborate our model, we perform extensive experiments on publicly-available datasets (e.g., ETH/UCY, Stanford Drone Dataset, STATS SportVU NBA, Intersection Drone Dataset and TrajNet++) and demonstrate its effectiveness in crowded scenes compared to several state-of-the-art methods., Accepted at Computer Vision and Image Understanding (CVIU)

In this paper we show the importance of the head pose estimation in the task of trajectory forecasting. This cue, when produced by an oracle and injected in a novel socially-based energy minimization approach, allows to get state-of-the-art performances on four different forecasting benchmarks, without relying on additional information such as expected destination and desired speed, which are supposed to be know beforehand for most of the current forecasting techniques. Our approach uses the head pose estimation for two aims: 1) to define a view frustum of attention, highlighting the people a given subject is more interested about, in order to avoid collisions; 2) to give a shorttime estimation of what would be the desired destination point. Moreover, we show that when the head pose estimation is given by a real detector, though the performance decreases, it still remains at the level of the top score forecasting systems.

Spatio-temporal data is a commonly used source of information. Using machine learning to analyse this kind of data can lead to many interesting and useful insights. In this thesis project, a novel public transportation spatio-temporal dataset is explored and analysed. The dataset contains 282 GB of positional events, spanning two weeks of time, from all public transportation vehicles in Östergötland county, Sweden. From the data exploration, three high-level problems are formulated: bus stop detection, GPS variance estimation, and arrival time prediction, also called trajectory forecasting. The bus stop detection problem is briefly discussed and solutions are proposed. Gaussian process regression is an effective method for solving regression problems. The GPS variance estimation problem is solved via the use of a mixture of Gaussian processes. A mixture of Gaussian processes is also used to predict the arrival time for public transportation buses. The arrival time prediction is from one bus stop to the next, not for the whole trajectory. The result from the arrival time prediction is a distribution of arrival times, which can easily be applied to determine the earliest and latest expected arrival to the next bus stop, alongside the most probable arrival time. The naïve arrival time prediction model implemented has a root mean square error of 5 to 19 seconds. In general, the absolute error of the prediction model decreases over time in each respective segment. The results from the GPS variance estimation problem is a model which can compare the variance for different environments along the route on a given trajectory.