Search

This reflective paper considers how Dr. Ian Yeoman teaches futures studies and scenario planning to tourism students across several undergraduate and postgraduate degree programs at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. It is based on his teaching philosophy of visualization, authenticity, problem-based learning, scaffolding, and his understanding of how students negotiate their own learning. The paper examines the approach taken in three papers, where Yeoman is the primary lecturer. As part of the bachelor of tourism management degree, two papers are taught. TOUR104 is a first-year introductory paper addressing how the drivers and trends in the macro-environment influence tourism from a political, economic, social, technology, and environmental perspective. TOUR301 is a third-year paper that aims to help students develop the skills and knowledge necessary to understand and critically analyze tourism public policy, planning, and processes primarily within New Zealand. TOUR413 is a scenario planning paper, applied in a tourism context and taught to students in postgraduate programs. The contribution this paper makes is in its demonstration of the link between teaching philosophy and student learning, the challenges students encounter with futures thinking in a problem-based learning environment and the evolution of the papers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Food tourism or food and tourism has emerged as a major theme for recent tourism research. This paper critically reviews and evaluates this growing subject area of tourism research thus identifies the core concepts associated with food tourism as major research themes, perspectives, and disciplinary approaches. Using the process of cognitive mapping this paper discovers that the literature on food tourism is dominated by five themes: motivation, culture, authenticity, management and marketing , and destination orientation . The authors conceptualise food tourism research from a cultural anthropology perspective, given that much of the literature on food tourism defines cuisine as place and is used in many forms and interactions with tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tourism in New Zealand represents nearly 1 in 10 jobs, 9.1% of the country's GDP and 18% of foreign exchange earnings. The country's tourism brand, 100% Pure New Zealand, is world leading. However visitor demand and global tourism trends are changing. The Tourism 2050 project, commissioned by the Ministry of Tourism and the Foundation for Research in Science and Technology, set out to envision the future of tourism in New Zealand by asking the question, 'What will New Zealand tourism look in the year 2050?'. The research project produced four scenarios, Manaakitanga, An Eco Paradise, Peifc c t Stomi and The State of China, which all follow different pathways and are constructed upon realistic circumstances. The purpose of the scenarios was to provide a foundation to encourage and promote discussion in order to understand New Zealand's tourism future and to 'think differently'. The scenarios provided a comprehensive analysis of the external and internal challenges New Zealand's tourism industry would face in the future and conclude with a series of strategic recommendations which are the basis of a tourism national plan. This paper provides a detailed account of that scenario planning process, content and outcomes, thus providing policy makers with a blue print of how to do scenario planning in the tourism context and serves as a guide to the future of tourism in New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper situates current knowledge on family tourism with pointers to the future by drawing on multidisciplinary contributions to a recent consolidative book Research in family tourism is limited, fragmented and individualized, thus not accounting or t ie diversity of family forms, sociality of family groups and multidimensionality of family experiences. Integration of thinking about and understanding the changing nature of families in tourism is needed. The key concepts of change are captured through a cognitive mapping perspective. This research process allows an exploration and systemic tool for constructivism interpretation. The cognitive model resulted in nine main themes that represent emerging and changing trends in family tourism. The key purpose here is the identification of the slow moving changes and trends that are occurring in family tourism based upon cognitive modelling of current research and their significance for pie icting the future. This demonstrates connectivity between concepts providing a more holistic and critical interpretation of the future of families and tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This conceptual paper uses a scenario planning process to facilitate possible futures for literary festivals, a form of festival tourism that has grown rapidly in the developed and developing countries of the world in the early decades of the 21st Century and which continues to grow towards 2050. The paper addresses this in the context of two significant cities, Shanghai - a megacity in China, and Melbourne, the capital city of Victoria, Australia. The paper offers two scenarios for literary festivals, one drawn from science fiction and the other from a process of prognosis. The aim of this work is to contribute to research in festival tourism studies by exploring the signposts and signals that may confer the future role, form and function of literature and the format and activity of literary festivals and literary festival tourism in a changing world. Utilizing signals and signposts, the work contributes to the body of work which seeks strategic responses to rapid change, rapid urbanization and possible zones of uncertainty that may await literary festivals and associated tourism and community activity in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue including business environment, tourism research and touriem futures.

The Asia Pacific region is the focus for the future of world tourism and thus the future catalyst for tourism research as the process of internationalization shapes academic knowledge and creation. This special issue of the Journal of Travel Research came about due to the formation of the Travel and Tourism Research Association (TTRA) Asia Pacific Chapter, in which the guest editors pondered on the present state of tourism futures writing in the region. This Special Issue uses an ontological classification to view how researchers see the future of tourism. The classification is based on two dimensions: truth claim (or not) and explanatory claim (or not). Thus, four entities are formed: prediction, prognosis, science fiction, and utopia/dystopia. Seventy percent of articles published are based upon an entity of prognosis or prediction in which authors claim truthfulness, whereas a minority of the articles are classified as science fiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The future of tourism is dominated by discussions on sustainability, but the single biggest issue that is largely ignored is demography. As a key driver for future tourism demand, demography needs a strategic planning approach. This article takes a scenario planning perspective and examines the future of tourism in New Zealand and how it will be shaped by demography. This article, as part of a wider study on the future of tourism, focuses on a scenario–sclerosis of demography–where the tourism industry is in a downward spiral of decline with tourists spending less monies year on year because of ageing populations, resulting in falling productivity and less disposable income in future years. This scenario is based upon two key issues. First, as populations age, the pressure on New Zealand’s public purse is contested and second, older consumers extend their healthy years resulting in an ageless society. The scenario raises four key questions for the future. First, what is the role of tourism in an ageing society? Second, if the New Zealand tourism sector fails and as a consequence government is forced to intervene, what does this mean? Third, what is the impact on future immigration policies as a consequence of a decline in traditional labour supplies? Finally, what is the future of youth tourism if future generations are stifled by debt and lack of purchasing power? The article concludes with a conceptual map as a strategic planning device that considers these questions and offers answers around the themes of lifestyle, the role of government, economic aspects, and trends in employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Authentic learning is well documented in the education literature, whether drawing upon the dimensions of social capital in which student learning is enhanced through partnerships and group learning or the teacher acting as facilitator. What does this all mean in practice? This reflective article observes a number of practical learning points that embrace the principles of authentic learning as described by the author when making a series of changes to a tourism postgraduate course. This article highlights the role of formalizing incremental learning as a feedback mechanism for nonclassroom learning, which includes the importance of variety in assignments to stimulate creative and critical skills. This article creates a sense of authentic learning through action research, which encompasses a student's construction and negotiation of knowledge, shows how the role of the teacher is that of a facilitator rather than a formal teacher, and finally, presents the difficulties students encounter engaging with this learning approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the use of scenario planning as a methodology to help understand the future of tourism. It reports on the results of a scenario planning exercise undertaken in 2007 in Scotland by VisitScotland, the National Tourism Organisation for Scotland, which seeks to understand how transport might shape tourism in 2025. The study followed an established methodology used by the UK's Office for Science and Technology [OfST. (2006). Transport - intelligent futures project. London: Author.] and how it set out to understand what transport provision might look like in 2055. The methodology used by the OfST study was modified and expanded by this study with a series of in-depth interviews with industry stakeholders to understand what the key drivers of change in the transport sector were in 2007 and would be in 2025. This was followed by the construction of two scenarios designed to look at two extreme cases of how transport and tourism would be interconnected to shape the destination and ability to access different types of tourism product and experience. These scenarios were then introduced to a workshop setting with key industry stakeholders to assess the reliability and validity of the scenarios. The paper also draws out wider implications for academic research of using scenario analysis in tourism, so that the value of this methodology can be understood and used more widely in appropriate settings. The study has to be viewed against the current tourism strategy for Scotland - the Tourism Framework for Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the next 10 years, Scottish tourism is expected to grow by 50%. One of the keys to that growth is transport which is a sector that is dependent upon oil. This paper considers oil and the global economy and its relationship to Scottish tourism. Consideration is given to the key variables such as oil forecasts, security of supply, cost of production, world demand, alternative forms of energy including renewables and nuclear power. The combination of these facts means that high oil prices are here to stay. Two scenarios are constructed called Energy Inflation and Paying for Climate Change. These were developed using a triangulation of methods including the use of systems thinking models to construct the scenarios to computable general equilibrium modelling to analyse the impact of oil and energy price rises on Scottish tourism. The Energy Inflation scenario presumes mass belief in the plenitude of available oil reserves and the failure to respond quickly enough to alter demand. This triggers a sudden and prolonged period of economic shocks, political instability and environmental disasters. The Paying for Climate Change scenario assumes rising energy prices, combined with conservation measures such as carbon taxes. Both scenarios raise a number of policy issues for the future including oil and fossil fuels being the main sources of energy as there is no real alternative. Renewables and nuclear power will continue to grow and countries will try to reduce further their reliance on oil. Rising oil prices are also noted as a positive feature, driving innovation and new technologies, which will become more economic as oil prices rise. For Scottish tourism, the impact of rising oil prices could mean a bumpy ride with carbon taxes, more wind farms and the possible end of the low cost carrier. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

It is Scotland's tourism ambition to grow by 50% by 2015. In order to achieve this, “authenticity” has being identified as a future key consumer-driver and as a trend that matches Scotland's brand equity proposition of “human, enduring and dramatic”. This paper identifies 10 trends that are shaping the concept of authenticity and exemplifies these through two scenarios—the Ella Stewart Family Centre Holidays and Orkadian Ancestors and Fiddlers. The paper discusses the concept of “authenti-seeking”, which is defined as “consumers searching for authenticity from a range of products, services and experiences or looking for it within themselves”. This concept is then considered within the context of tourism, highlighting the opportunity for Scotland, whether this be community-based propositions, activity holidays or even nostalgic, authentic products, such as the Tizer Experience at Barr's Soft Drink Plant. If authenticity is to be a serious proposition, it must be built around the notions of ethical, natural, honest, simple, beautiful, rooted and human concepts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper examines how a National Tourism Organisation, VisitScotland is making use of scenario planning to identify key factors influencing tourism performance. The future of Scottish tourism to 2015 will be affected by macro-trends and drivers in UK society. These trends include demography, globalization, sustainability, technology/communication, politics, transport, fuel supply and pricing, and levels of inflation and affluence. These complex phenomena will impact on tourism in a range of interrelated ways which remain difficult to quantify. This paper will illustrate the utilization of the scenario planning approach to capture expert opinion and reflective discussion in order to build and inform potential futures for the Scottish tourism industry. 'What if' thinking is utilized to anticipate the future and conclusions are drawn from two potential future scenarios for Scottish tourism in 2015. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines one of the key risks facing businesses and emergency planners today: the likely impact of a flu pandemic on business activities. The paper uses the example of a large tourism organisation — VisitScotland, the national tourism organisation for Scotland, with over 1,000 employees — and explains how it has planned and prepared for such a pandemic. The paper reports the research methods used by the authors in this planning process, including scenario planning, economic forecasting and in-house workshops to scope the range of issues to address in preparing a contingency plan for a flu pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scottish tourism is forecasted to grow by 50 per cent over the next 10 years but one of the factors that may hinder or facilitate that growth is climatic change. Indeed, many people are now starting to question the impact of such significant growth on the planet. Therefore, this paper assesses the impact of climate change on Scottish tourism in order that policy makers can separate the facts from the myths. The dimensions of climate change such as CO2 emissions, temperature, rainfall, storms, and wind speed are discussed and the implications for Scottish tourism are mapped. Those implications may include the introduction of CO2 allowances for all travellers, more wind farms in rural locations impacting on film tourism or the grouse species disappearing from Scotland. The paper concludes with a number of adaptation strategies that Scottish tourism agencies and business could adopt to mitigate climate change. The importance of this paper lies in understanding how climate change could impact upon a specific destination, in this case Scotland, and in providing a micro analysis of that impact. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the internet expected to account for the vast majority of all holiday purchases by 2015 and with other technologies such as 3G and a digital society changing purchasing behaviour, we have seen as much change in technologies in the last 10 years as we have in the previous 150 years. All of this exponential change impacts upon information and Scottish tourism, but does this mean a cashless society/a paperless office/big brother or androids? The scenarios have been constructed called The Free Information Society and The Real Information Society in order to discuss how information and consumer trends folds out in the future. These scenario are not an answer to the future, but a means to discuss the future implications of an information society. The free information Society highlights that information is freely available and that we do not buy information any more, whereas the Real Information Society is about how technology supports personal information rather than replacing it. The paper identifies 16 trends that will shape the future of an information society including citizen brands, gaming cultures and technology convergence. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for Scotland's tourism industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Information about current and forecast levels of tourism and its contribution to the economy is important for policy making by businesses and governments. Traditional forecasting methods can provide reasonable forecasts in the context of predictable changes. However, forecasting becomes problematic in the context of both predictable changes and less predictable domestic or international shocks. This paper demonstrates the ways in which an integrated model, combining traditional forecasting methods and quantifiable forecasts from a computable general equilibrium model, can be used to examine combinations of events. The model is applied to Scotland and combines tourism indicators with structural time-series forecasting and CGE impact analysis. Results are provided for changes in exchange rates, income of major origin countries and a positive shock to tourism demand, to demonstrate the integrated model''s ability to take account of the multiple events that affect tourism destinations. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In a world of 9/11 and Tsunami, trying to predict the future of tourism is an uncertain science. VisitScotland, the national tourism agency of the Scotland uses a process of scenario planning and futures thinking in order to make sense of that uncertain future. This paper, examines how world mega trends and consumer behaviour will shape the future tourists. Four scenarios are constructed using the principles of cognitive mapping. Firstly, a right royal treatment scenario describes the business traveller as sophisticated, demanding and time sensitive. He/she wants exceptional service but is only willing to pay a premium price for added value rather than functionality. The tourist living local scenario describes the authentic tourist as someone that is discerning but wants to 'live local'. They are from a networked society where information is freely available. They are ethical and inconspicuous consumers who have grown up in an affluent world. Their values and beliefs are based upon an untrusting and anxious society fuelled by safety. The authentic tourist feels safe in the past rather than the artificial world of Disneyland. The living the low-brow and high-brow life scenario reflects cultural capital being driven by an educated well-travelled consumer who is more concerned with experience than material possessions. The Asia gets going scenario is a realization that the middle classes of China are driving the growth of tourism across the world by 2015; here, Chinese tourists want to live their dreams. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is the history of a nation that creates its sense of place, and within this context tourism and national identity are inseparable. By examining Scotland's culture, people and landscapes from a historical perspective, a sense of place is constructed. This sense of place is clustered into four themes, namely, first, literature, food, landscape, music and film; secondly, different tastes, differing country; thirdly, literature and place, nation and region; and, finally, heritage, authenticity and the appeal of Scotland. Using stories of a far and near past, the authors construct a sense of place that is a representation of destination marketing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective crisis management requires information about the ways in which tourists of different nationalities respond to different types of crisis. This paper provides a model which can be used to quantify such effects. The model is applied to the case of American, French and German tourism demand in Scotland. The results show that French tourists were particularly affected by the foot and mouth disease crisis. Germans were most severely affected by the September 11 events. Although arrivals from the USA decreased after both crises, receipts were hardly affected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forecasting UK domestic tourists to Scotland is never an exact science, but in order to see into the future it is important to understand the correlation between economic performance and tourism revenues. In order to do this, VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland, uses econometrics (the Moffat model). VisitScotland is projecting a robust performance for UK tourism in Scotland up to 2008, based upon a stable housing market, a tight labour market and low interest rates. Therefore Scottish tourism domestic revenues should rise from £4.1bn in 2005 to £4.4bn in 2008 in terms of real expenditure (excluding inflation). This paper sets out to explain this forecast. The forecasts are based upon economic conditions and represent the opportunity for tourism; they do not account for shocks such as 9/11 or extreme weather conditions. Such projections are used as a guide to the future, rather than the exact future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

VisitScotland, the national tourism agency for Scotland, used a scenario-planning process to untangle the complexity of the forthcoming war in Iraq. The scenarios explored the impact of such a war on tourism against a backdrop of an economic environment of failing equity markets and GDP. In 2003, Scotland was on the verge of a recession, and VisitScotland wanted to know how war would affect this economic environment and, simultaneously, how this would affect different tourism markets. VisitScotland constructed four scenarios: how the West was won, global Northern Ireland, new dawn, and into the valley of death. The scenarios helped the organization develop policies and actions to deal with contingencies in each scenario. More importantly, the article shows how VisitScotland managed the process, what it did, and policy implications for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers how a future outbreak of foot- and-mouth disease (FMD) would be treated and considers the potential reaction by government agencies with particular reference to communication and the management of crises within the tourism sectors. Lessons and experience are drawn from the outbreak of FMD in Scotland in 2001 and reoccurrences in other parts of the world. Two potential scenarios are considered, namely a 'suspected case' and a 'confirmed case', and the likely consequences of both for the tourism industry of Scotland and the UK are considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visit Scotland has set out a vision for the Scottish tourism industry in which tourism will be the `first and everlasting industry' of Scotland. This vision is driven by an ambition to increase tourism revenue by 50 per cent within the next ten years. In order to achieve that objective, a strategy map is used to provide direction that sets out the size and shape of the industry. A constructivist interpretation paradigm and a cognitive mapping methodology are used to bring structure to the phenomenon of tourism futures by using a software package called Decision Explorer. This paper describes tourism being shaped by changes in demographics and in monetary policy. The consumer will be price-sensitive and/or sophisticated. Scotland will be recognised as a leisure destination rather than a tourism destination, with revenue growth much more likely to be derived from retail and leisure activities rather than the traditional sectors of accommodation and transport. But as tourism develops in Scotland, faster growth will be seen from European and short-haul markets compared to traditional long-haul markets. Shifts in demand as a result of demographic changes will result in visitors staying more with friends rather than with relatives, particularly in urban locations. A decreasing labour supply will result in more dependency on labour substitutes and the newer technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand the potential for tourism in Scotland, it is important to look beyond the near future. Four scenarios have been created that paint contrasting pictures of Scottish tourism in 2015. The 'Dynamic' scenario creates a ...l0bn tourism economy with tourism being the number-one industry in Scotland. The 'Weekend Getaway' sees tourism based upon consumerism and play. The value of tourism in this scenario is ...7.6bn. 'Yesterday's Destination' means tourism is based upon the past, and the industry is found to be too complacent. An uncompetitve industry means that growth is only 1 per cent per annum and valued at ...5.1bn. Finally, 'Exclusive Scotland' means that the Scottish economy has failed as deflation has taken the soul out of the country but favourable exchange rates mean that international high-spending tourists flock to exclusive resorts. Tourism in this scenario is a ...2.6bn industry. These four scenarios follow different paths and are driven by different circumstances. But within all of the scenarios, tourism exists. The opportunity for Scotland is to maximise its potential in order that tourism is Scotland's first and everlasting industry. The paper begins with a commentary by Peter Lederer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the events of oil price hike in 1974 and 1979 and its effect to the world tourism industry. This in connection to the continuous high oil prices in 2008 due to falling house prices, tension in the Middle East, and increased demand for consumerism in China. It states that despite the oil price hike this 2008, its effect to the economy is better compared in the 1970s and early 1980s. Details related to the reasons of higher oil prices in 1974 and 1979, as well as its effect to the tourism industry are discussed.