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In the field of time series forecasting, the combination of linear and nonlinear models has been explored to improve the accuracy of predictions when compared with the performance of individual models. Traditional forecasting methods such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing (ETS) are employed to map linear patterns in a time series while neural networks (ANNs) and support vector machines (SVMs) map nonlinear patterns. A traditional hybrid ARIMA–ANN system works by performing linear relationships in the data, considering the residual error a nonlinear component which is mapped by the ANN. The nature of a time series can be taken into consideration before applying a model. This work employs both linear and nonlinear patterns of a time series based on its volatility. This is explored using a hybrid evolutionary system composed by a simple exponential smoothing filter, ARIMA and autoregressive (AR) linear models and a SVR model. Particle swarm optimization is employed to optimize the order of the AR model, SVR parameters and number of lags of the time series. Experimental results show that the evolutionary hybrid system presented promising results in the forecasting domain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present here a work that applies an automatic construction of ensembles based on the Clustering and Selection (CS) algorithm for time series forecasting. The automatic method, called CSELM, initially finds an optimum number of clusters for training data set and subsequently designates an Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) for each cluster found. For model evaluation, the testing data set are submitted to clustering technique and the nearest cluster to data input will give a supervised response through its associated ELM. Self-organizing maps were used in the clustering phase. Adaptive differential evolution was used to optimize the parameters and performance of the different techniques used in the clustering and prediction phases. The results obtained with the CSELM method are compared with results obtained by other methods in the literature. Five well-known time series were used to validate CSELM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] We present a method for optimization of the activation functions for ANN. [•] The proposed optimization method uses Simulated Annealing and Tabu Search. [•] The proposed method is good for forecasting distinct time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Reservoir computing is a framework for computation like a recurrent neural network that allows for the black box modeling of dynamical systems. In contrast to other recurrent neural network approaches, reservoir computing does not train the input and internal weights of the network, only the readout is trained. However it is necessary to adjust parameters to create a “good” reservoir for a given application. In this study we introduce a method, called RCDESIGN (reservoir computing and design training). RCDESIGN combines an evolutionary algorithm with reservoir computing and simultaneously looks for the best values of parameters, topology and weight matrices without rescaling the reservoir matrix by the spectral radius. The idea of adjust the spectral radius within the unit circle in the complex plane comes from the linear system theory. However, this argument does not necessarily apply to nonlinear systems, which is the case of reservoir computing. The results obtained with the proposed method are compared with results obtained by a genetic algorithm search for global parameters generation of reservoir computing. Four time series were used to validate RCDESIGN. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

A time series is a sequence of observations of a random variable. Hence, it is a stochastic process. Forecasting time series data is important component of operations research because these data often provide the foundation for decision models. This models are used to predict data points before they are measured based on known past events. Researches in this subject have been done in many areas like economy, energy production, ecology and others. To improve the process of time series forecasting it is important to identify which of past values will be considered to be used in the models by eliminating redundant or irrelevant attributes. Two hybrid systems Harmony Search with Neural Networks (HS) and Temporal Memory Search with Neural Networks (TMS) are improved and a new one is proposed: the Temporal Memory Search Limited with Neural Networks (TMSL). The performance of the techniques is investigated through an empirical evaluation on twenty real-world time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present here an original work that applies meta-learning approaches to select models for time-series forecasting. In our work, we investigated two meta-learning approaches, each one used in a different case study. Initially, we used a single machine learning algorithm to select among two models to forecast stationary time series (case study I). Following, we used the NOEMON approach, a more recent work in the meta-learning area, to rank three models used to forecast time series of the M3-Competition (case study II). The experiments performed in both case studies revealed encouraging results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The selection of a good model for forecasting a time series is a task that involves experience and knowledge. Employing machine learning algorithms is a promising approach to acquiring knowledge in regards to this task. A supervised classification method originating from the symbolic data analysis field is proposed for the model selection problem. This method was applied in the task of selecting between two widespread models, and compared to other learning algorithms. To date, it has obtained the lowest classification errors among all the tested algorithms. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An introduction is presented in which the guest editors discuss various reports within the issue on topics including selection of algorithms to solve traveling salesman problem using meta-learning, selecting features to improve time series forecasting using hybrid intelligent techniques, and comparison of single classification methods and classifier ensembles performances.

Time series forecasting is an important research field in machine learning. Since the literature shows several techniques for the solution of this problem, combining outputs of different models is a simple and robust strategy. However, even when using combiners, the experimenter may face the following dilemma: which technique should one use to combine the individual predictors? Inspired by classification and pattern recognition algorithms, this work presents a dynamic selection method of forecast combiners. In the dynamic selection, each test pattern is submitted to a certain combiner according to a nearest neighbor rule. The proposed method was used to forecast eight time series with chaotic behavior in short and long term. In general, the dynamic selection presented satisfactory results for all datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper presents approaches to interval-valued time series forecasting. The first and second approaches are based on the autoregressive (AR) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, respectively. The third approach is based on an artificial neural network (ANN) model and the last is based on a hybrid methodology that combines both ARIMA and ANN models. Each approach fits, respectively, two models on the mid-point and range of the interval values assumed by the interval-valued time series in the learning set. The forecasting of the lower and upper bounds of the interval value of the time series is accomplished through a combination of forecasts from the mid-point and range of the interval values. The evaluation of the models presented is based on the estimation of the average behavior of the mean absolute error and mean squared error in the framework of a Monte Carlo experiment. The results demonstrate that the approaches are useful in forecasting alternatives for interval-valued time series and indicate that the hybrid model is an effective way to improve the forecasting accuracy achieved by any one of the models separately. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]