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This paper builds a model of sovereign debt in which default risk, interest rates, and debt depend not only on current fundamentals but also on news about future fundamentals. News shocks affect equilibrium outcomes because they contain information about the likelihood that the government repays its debt in the future. First, in the model with news shocks not all defaults occur in bad times, bringing the model closer to the data. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads, as well as a higher level of debt more in line with the characteristics of more developed economies. Third, the model also captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data. Finally, the news shocks have a nonmonotonic effect on the welfare.

Central banks regularly monitor select financial and macroeconomic variables in order to obtain early indication of the impact of monetary policies. This practice is discussed on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York website, for example, where one particular set of macroeconomic indicators is given. In this paper, we define a particular set of indicators; that is chosen to be representative of the typical sort of variable used in practice by both policy-setters and economic forecasters. As a measure of the adequacy; of the indicators, we compare their predictive content with that of a group of observable factor proxies selected from amongst 132 macroeconomic and financial time series, using the diffusion index methodology of Stock and Watson (2002a,b) and the factor proxy methodology of Bai and Ng (2006a,b) and Armah and Swanson (2010). The variables that we predict are output growth and inflation, two representative variables from our set of indicators that are often discussed when assessing the impact of monetary policy. Interestingly, we find that thc indicators are all contained within the set the observable variables that proxy our factors. Our findings, thus, support the notion that a judiciously chosen set of macroeconomic indicators can effectively provide the same macroeconomic policy-relevant information as that contained in a largescale time series dataset. Of course, the large-scale datasets are still required in order to select the key indicator variables or confirm one's prior choice of key variables. Our findings also suggest that certain yield spreads; are also useful indicators. The particular spreads that we find to be useful are the difference between Treasury or corporate yields and the federal funds rate. After conditioning on these variables, traditional spreads, such as the yield curve slope and the reverse yield gap are found to contain no additional marginal predictive content. We also find that the macroeconomic indicators (not including spreads) perform best when forecasting inflation in non-volatile time periods, while inclusion of our spread variables improves predictive accuracy in times of high volatility.

Diffusion index models have received considerable attention from both theoreticians and empirical econometricians in recent years. One reason for this is that datasets with many variables are increasingly becoming available and being utilized for economic modelling, and another is that common factors are often assumed to underlie the co-movements of a set of macroeconomic variables. In this paper we review some recent results in the study of diffusion index models, focusing primarily on advances due to [4, 5] and [1]. We discuss, for example, the construction of factors used in prediction models implemented using diffusion index methodology and approaches that are useful for assessing whether there are observable variables that adequately proxy for estimated factors.

Short-term fiscal indicators based on public accounts data are often used by European policy makers. They represent one of the main sources of publicly available intra-annual fiscal information. Nevertheless, these indicators have received limited attention from the academic literature analysing fiscal forecasting in Europe. Some recent literature suggests the validity of public accounts data to forecast government deficits in the euro area. We extend this literature on two fronts:(i) we shift the focus from indicators of government deficits to look at indicators for government total revenue and total expenditure; (ii) we use a mixed-frequency state-space model to integrate readily available monthly/quarterly cash-based fiscal data with annual general government series (National Accounts). By doing so, we are able to maintain the focus on forecasting and monitoring annual outcomes, while making use of infra-annual fiscal information, available within the current year. The paper makes a case for the use of monthly cash indicators for multi- lateral fiscal surveillance at the European level.

In 2004 the German Patent and Trademark Office commissioned the Ifo Institute to deliver a research report on the topic "Identification of Available and Desirable Indicators for Patent Systems, Patenting Processes and Patent Rights". - The report provides an extensive overview of the existing literature about the valuation of patents, mainly from an economic point of view but also giving consideration to legal and business aspects. This includes the valuation of the patent system itself, the valuation of the patenting process and the valuation of the assigned patent rights. Looking at the relevant literature, however, it reveals immeadiately that a quantification of these patent related issues is not easy. The economic literature relies heavily on the valuation of patent rights, as this gives a possible measurement of innovation output.

As innovation becomes an ever more central issue for the development of firms and world economies, so the need for improved assessments of innovative performance grows more urgent. This paper suggests that trademark analysis can contribute in capturing relevant aspects of innovation phenomena and the process of industrial change. We propose trademarks as a complementary indicator in the portfolio of available empirical tools of innovation studies and industrial dynamics. Our empirical exploration is based on a study of Community Trade Marks, an intellectual property right granted in the European Union, and draws on recent research on trademarking trends in Portugal. Quantitative as well as qualitative data, including survey data from a representative sample of Portuguese manufacturing and services firms, are used to identify the advantages and limitations of this indicator.

We show that using data which are properly available in real time when assessing the sensitivity of asset prices to economic news leads to different empirical findings than when data availability and timing issues are ignored. We do this by focusing on a particular example, namely Chen, Roll and Ross (1986), and examine whether innovations to economic variables can be viewed as risks that are rewarded in asset markets. Our findings support the view that data uncertainty is sufficiently prevalent to warrant careful use of real-time data when forming real-time news measures, and in general when undertaking empirical financial investigations involving macroeconomic data.

In this paper we question the consensus of using a binary crisis definition for empirical crisis models. We believe that the most severe shortcomings of the crisis models today are in the crisis definition rather than the explanatory variables. We present a crisis model that is specified for a continuous crisis definition especially designed to describe extreme exchange-rate and interest-rate events in emerging markets. The crisis variable successfully portrays the crises of the 1990s and the estimated models perform excellently in explaining these events.

We analyze several identification frameworks based on operating procedures to measure monetary policy in a small open economy. We use a two-stage non-recursive VAR model to identify monetary shocks. We construct then various overall monetary policy indicators based on different residuals treatments and report them as weighted sums of monetary policy variables. Finally, our model is applied to the Swiss National Bank. Our main indicator reveals that the exchange rate was the dominant variable at the end of the seventies. During the eighties, aggregates had their golden age, while in the nineties, the call rate showed up as operating variable.

A preliminary step in the measurement of inequality regards the choice of the index to use. Several indices exist, each one responding to a built-in aversion to inequality, and the choice affects conclusions. But how much? And in which way? We test the ranking correlation between inequality indices, by drawing a distinction between cases involving non-intersecting and intersecting Lorenz curves.

Der vorliegende Aufsatz untersucht die Ursachen von Finanzmarktkrisen anhand entsprechender Vorkommnisse in Thailand, Mexiko und Tschechien, um risikoreiche Konstellationen für Emerging Markets zu identifizieren. Als Modell wurde der Ansatz von Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996) gewählt, der durch Einbeziehung von Kreditrationierung und Haftungsbeschränkung erweitert und modifiziert wurde. Aus diesen Überlegungen heraus wurden Indikatoren für die Prognose von Währungskrisen abgeleitet und anhand der Beispiele Thailands, Mexikos und Tschechiens berechnet. This present paper studies the reasons for financial market crises on the background of recent examples of Thailand, Mexico and the Czech Republic. We are interested to identify risky constellations for emerging markets. As a model, we have chosen the approach of Sachs/Tornell/Velasco (1996), which we have modified and extended by incorporating credit rationing and limited liability aspects. From this thinking, we have derived indicators for the prediction of financial market crises. We have calculated the indicators for the cases of Thailand, Mexico and the Czech Republic.

The application of aggregate indicators in environmental-economic research has received littleattention so far. An important reason is the incompleteness of environmental data. This articlepresents a systematic approach to construct indicators of environment and economy on a macrolevel. It includes a distinction into the following categories: the volume of economic activities as anindicator of potential environmental pressure; actual environmental pressure; environmentalquality; and environmental policy. In each category aggregate indicators are calculated for 12OECD countries. Subsequently, the correlation between these indicators is examined. Significantcorrelation is found between the economic activity indicators (or 'potential' environmentalpressure), actual environmental pressure and environmental quality, whereas a very weakcorrelation exists with these indicators and two types of aggregate indicators of environmentalpolicy. Due to some arbitrary choices, which are inevitable, the results are to be judged withcaution. Several suggestions are offered to improve the calculation and comparison of aggregateindicators.

The search for frameworks and indicators of sustainable development has taken a prominent place in this journal. However, some specific aspects have received little or no attention, notably the spatial dimension and the role of international trade in indicator development. Moreover, many sustainable development indicators comprise implicit valuations, weighting schemes and policy objectives, which are insufficiently recognised as such. This contribution tries to highlight these issues by means of a review of a recently proposed indicator for ecological–economic analysis, namely the ecological footprint, that has been developed by Wackernagel and Rees. Its concept and calculation procedure are criticised on a number of points, and it is concluded that the Ecological Footprint is not the comprehensive and transparent planning tool as is often assumed. In explaining our position we will argue that spatial sustainability and regional sustainable development have not been precisely discussed so far, neither in the literature on trade and environment, nor in that on sustainable development. We will defend the view that trade can contribute positively and negatively to environmental unsustainability. Consequently, indicators and models are needed that allow for analysing interactions and trade-offs between such opposite effects.

The aim of this study is to establish a classification for environmental indicators that can be used to communicate companies' environmental performance in Emas Environmental Statements and to assess their actual use in certified Environmental Statements. Starting from the ISO14031 draft indicators classification we have tried to verify its correspondence with EMAS EEC Council Regulation (93/1836/EEC) requirements and definitions, and therefore we have established a more appropriate classification according to the information the different indicators can provide. The evaluation of environmental indicators' use in Environmental Statements has been performed through the analysis of a sample of 62 certified EMAS Environmental Statements.

Indicators based on spillover coefficients contribute to the characterization of reciprocal externality fields. Such indicators can describe both quantity and structure aspects of diffiision schemes. In this paper the significance of spillover coefficients and corresponding indicators for bilateral externality coordination is demonstrated. Among other things, their relevance in instrumental designing is analysed. Finally "extended" spillover coefficients are derived, including damage aspects of external effects in addition to diffiision phenonema.

The aim of this paper is to describe and discuss the weak and strong sustainability approach of assessing climate change and to show reasonable applications, weaknesses, possible improvements and linkages of both approaches. Main features of ?weak? and ?strong? sustainability approaches are characterized. Damage cost studies of global warming representing weak sustainability indicators are discussed. Further, the examples of the ?inverse scenario? approach of the German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) and the environmental space concept of the Dutch Advisory Council for Research on Nature and Environment (RMNO) are described and discussed for illustrating advantages and weaknesses of strong sustainability indicators. Finally, the integration of damage cost modules into a broader methodological framework of strong sustainability is recommended.

During the last years more and more discussions came up about the contribution of technology-oriented and technology-intensive industries for employment and economic development. One reason for some of the contradictory evaluations of technology-intensive industries can be attributed to different conceptual definitions of technology and high-technology. This paper examines various definitions of high-technology, ranging from input factors, output factors, mixed input-output factors. subjective evaluations to definitions, based on employment or turnover growth. After characterizing the advantages and disadvantages of each factor, relevant definitions of high-technology are then discussed in detail. One finding of this overview is, that there's a huge mass of definitions which make more or less sense, depending on the underlying data, definitions and thresholds.

Insbesondere in den achtziger Jahren sind. zahlreiche Untersuchungen zur Schattenwirtschaft - im folgenden mit SW abgekürzt - erschienen. Wirtschaftspolitische und finanzwissenschaftliche Analysen überwiegen dabei. Nach wie vor gibt es bei der Quantifizierung der SW viele Probleme. Sie liegen im methodischen Ansatz, in der Abgrenzung dessen, was unter SW zu verstehen ist, in den Daten und deren Gewinnung sowie in den Schätzmethoden. Ziel der vorliegenden Analyse ist es, die grundsätzlichen Möglichkeiten einer Quantifizierung der SW und die bei der Erfassung auftretenden Probleme aufzuzeigen. Dabei geht es jedoch nicht um den gesamten Bereich der SW, der auch die Selbstversorgungswirtschaft mit einschließt, sondern nur um den Bereich der eigentlichen Schwarzarbeit“, der meist als Untergrundwirtschaft bezeichnet wird. (Im folgenden werden die Begriffe SW und Untergrundwirtschaft allerdings synonym verwendet). Der Schwerpunkt liegt dabei auf Quantifizierungsfragen, detaillierte Wirkungsanalysen und wirtschaftspolitische Schlußfolgerungen bleiben unbeachtet. Zunächst wird eine kurze Abgrenzung des Untersuchungsgegenstandes und der Problematik vorgenommen. Danach werden die grundsätzlichen Quantifizierungsmöglichkeiten und ihre methodischen Ansätze vorgestellt, wobei deren Problematik im Vordergrund steht und weniger die damit in der Vergangenheit erzielten empirischen Ergebnisse. Die Methoden gliedern sich einerseits in indirekte, globale makroökonomische Indikator- bzw. Modellansätze und andererseits in direkte, mikroanalytische Methoden. Im letzten Teil wird mit dem Determinantenansatz eine Schätzung für die BR Deutschland der Jahre 1960-1990 vorgenommen, wie überhaupt sich die Ausführungen nur auf die Verhältnisse in der BR Deutschland beziehen.