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The health effects of climatic changes constitute an important research area, yet few researchers have reported city- or region-specific projections of temperature-related deaths based on assumptions about mitigation and adaptation. Herein, we provide quantitative projections for the number of additional deaths expected in the future, owing to the cold and heat in the city of Nanjing, China, based on 31 global circulation models (GCMs), two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and three population scenarios [a constant scenario and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) (SSP2 and SSP5)], for the periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. The results show that for the period 2070-2099, the net number of temperature-related deaths can be comparable in the cases of RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5 owing to the offsetting effects attributed to the increase of heat related deaths and the decrease of cold-related deaths. In consideration of this adaptation, we suggest that RCP4.5/SSP2 is a better future development pathway/scenario., (Copyright © 2019 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.)

Background: Climate change is projected to increase the frequency, intensity, and duration of heat waves while reducing cold extremes, yet few studies have examined the relationship between temperature and fetal health., Objectives: We estimate the impacts of extreme temperatures on birth weight and gestational age in Manhattan, a borough in New York City, and explore differences by socioeconomic status (SES)., Methods: We combine average daily temperature from 1985 to 2010 with birth certificate data in Manhattan for the same time period. We then generate 33 downscaled climate model time series to project impacts on fetal health., Results: We find exposure to an extra day where average temperature <25 °F and >85 °F during pregnancy is associated with a 1.8 and 1.7 g (respectively) reduction in birth weight, but the impact varies by SES, particularly for extreme heat, where teen mothers seem most vulnerable. We find no meaningful, significant effect on gestational age. Using projections of temperature from these climate models, we project average net reductions in birth weight in the 2070-2099 period of 4.6g in the business-as-usual scenario., Conclusions: Results suggest that increasing heat events from climate change could adversely impact birth weight and vary by SES., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The frequency of heat waves (defined as daily temperature exceeding the local 90th percentile for at least three consecutive days) during summer in the United States is examined for daily maximum and minimum temperature and maximum apparent temperature, in recent observations and in 10 CMIP5 models for recent past and future. The annual average percentage of days participating in a heat wave varied between approximately 2% and 10% in observations and in the model's historical simulations during 1979-2005. Applying today's temperature thresholds to future projections, heatwave frequencies rise to more than 20% by 2035-40. However, given the models' slight overestimation of frequencies and positive trend rates during 1979-2005, these projected heat-wave frequencies should be regarded cautiously. The models' overestimations may be associated with their higher daily autocorrelation than is found in observations. Heat-wave frequencies defined using apparent temperature, reflecting both temperature and atmospheric moisture, are projected to increase at a slightly (and statistically significantly) faster rate than for temperature alone. Analyses show little or no changes in the day-to-day variability or persistence (autocorrelation) of extreme temperature between recent past and future, indicating that the future heat-wave frequency will be due predominantly to increases in standardized (using historical period statistics) mean temperature and moisture content, adjusted by the local climatological daily autocorrelation. Using nonparametric methods, the average level and spatial pattern of future heat-wave frequency is shown to be approximately predictable on the basis of only projected mean temperature increases and local autocorrelation. These model-projected changes, even if only approximate, would impact infrastructure, ecology, and human well-being. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Changing climates have been causing variations in the number of global ischemic heart disease and stroke incidences, and will continue to affect disease occurrence in the future. Objectives To project temperature-related mortality for acute ischemic heart disease, and ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke with concomitant climate warming. Methods We estimated the exposure-response relationship between daily cause-specific mortality and daily mean temperature in Beijing. We utilized outputs from 31 downscaled climate models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) for the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. This strategy was used to estimate future net temperature along with heat- and cold-related deaths. The results for predicted temperature-related deaths were subsequently contrasted with the baseline period. Results In the 2080s, using the RCP8.5 and no population variation scenarios, the net total number of annual temperature-related deaths exhibited a median value of 637 (with a range across models of 434–874) for ischemic stroke; this is an increase of approximately 100% compared with the 1980s. The median number of projected annual temperature-related deaths was 660 (with a range across models of 580–745) for hemorrhagic stroke (virtually no change compared with the 1980s), and 1683 (with a range across models of 1351–2002) for acute ischemic heart disease (a slight increase of approximately 20% compared with the 1980s). In the 2080s, the monthly death projection for hemorrhagic stroke and acute ischemic heart disease showed that the largest absolute changes occurred in summer and winter while the largest absolute changes for ischemic stroke occurred in summer. Conclusions We projected that the temperature-related mortality associated with ischemic stroke will increase dramatically due to climate warming. However, projected temperature-related mortality pertaining to acute ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke should remain relatively stable over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BACKGROUND: High temperatures have substantial impacts on mortality and, with growing concerns about climate change, numerous studies have developed projections of future heat-related deaths around the world. Projections of temperature-related mortality are often limited by insufficient information to formulate hypotheses about population sensitivity to high temperatures and fixture demographics. OBJECTIVES: The present study derived projections of temperature-related mortality in New York City by taking into account future patterns of adaptation or demographic change, both of which can have profound influences on fixture health burdens. METHODS: We adopted a novel approach to modeling heat adaptation by incorporating an analysis of the observed population response to heat in New York City over the course of eight decades. This approach projected heat-related mortality until the end of the 21st century based on observed trends in adaptation over a substantial portion of the 20th century. In addition, we incorporated a range of new scenarios for population change until the end of the 21st century. We then estimated future heat-related deaths in New York City by combining the changing temperature -- mortality relationship and population scenarios with downscaled temperature projections from the 33 global climate models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). RESULTS: The median number of projected annual heat-related deaths across the 33 GCMs varied greatly by RCP and adaptation and population change scenario, ranging from 167 to 3,331 in the 2080s compared with 638 heat-related deaths annually between 2000 and 2006. CONCLUSIONS: These findings provide a more complete picture of the range of potential future heat-related mortality risks across the 21st century in New York City, and they highlight the importance of both demographic change and adaptation responses in modifying future risks. CITATION: Petkova EP, Vink JK, Horton RM, Gasparrini A, Bader DA, Francis JD, Kinney PL. 2017. Towards more comprehensive projections of urban heat-related mortality: estimates for New York City under multiple population, adaptation, and climate scenarios. Environ Health Perspect 125:47-55; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/EHPl66 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: A warming climate will affect future temperature-attributable premature deaths. This analysis is the first to project these deaths at a near national scale for the United States using city and month-specific temperature-mortality relationships.Methods: We used Poisson regressions to model temperature-attributable premature mortality as a function of daily average temperature in 209 U.S. cities by month. We used climate data to group cities into clusters and applied an Empirical Bayes adjustment to improve model stability and calculate cluster-based month-specific temperature-mortality functions. Using data from two climate models, we calculated future daily average temperatures in each city under Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0. Holding population constant at 2010 levels, we combined the temperature data and cluster-based temperature-mortality functions to project city-specific temperature-attributable premature deaths for multiple future years which correspond to a single reporting year. Results within the reporting periods are then averaged to account for potential climate variability and reported as a change from a 1990 baseline in the future reporting years of 2030, 2050 and 2100.Results: We found temperature-mortality relationships that vary by location and time of year. In general, the largest mortality response during hotter months (April - September) was in July in cities with cooler average conditions. The largest mortality response during colder months (October-March) was at the beginning (October) and end (March) of the period. Using data from two global climate models, we projected a net increase in premature deaths, aggregated across all 209 cities, in all future periods compared to 1990. However, the magnitude and sign of the change varied by cluster and city.Conclusions: We found increasing future premature deaths across the 209 modeled U.S. cities using two climate model projections, based on constant temperature-mortality relationships from 1997 to 2006 without any future adaptation. However, results varied by location, with some locations showing net reductions in premature temperature-attributable deaths with climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]