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In this paper, we investigate the scale of the drop in American imports after it imposed punitive tariffs on Chinese goods. Our analysis spans the whole period of Donald Trump’s presidency (January 2017 – January 2021). In contrast to existing studies, which are mainly devoted to the impact of reduced trade flows on the key macroeconomic indicators, we focus on the specific market of textile products, which was among the most affected by the protectionism measures. The quantitative analysis allows us to conclude that the imposed duties severely hit the textile industry, bringing a noticeable drop in US imports of selected groups of products from China. Furthermore, the review of long‑term consequences indicates that the ongoing trade war has not only adversely affected the macroeconomic fundamentals of the US economy, but it is also likely to have a long‑lasting impact on global supply and production chains. W niniejszym artykule badana jest skala spadku amerykańskiego importu po nałożeniu ceł na chińskie towary w kontekście tzw. wojny handlowej. Analiza obejmuje cały okres prezydentury Donalda Trumpa (styczeń 2017 – styczeń 2021). W przeciwieństwie do dotychczasowych badań, które poświęcone były głównie wpływowi zmniejszonych przepływów handlowych na kluczowe wskaźniki makroekonomiczne, koncentrujemy się na specyficznym rynku wyrobów tekstylnych, który był jednym z najbardziej dotkniętych środkami protekcjonizmu. Przeprowadzona analiza wraz z badaniem ilościowym pozwala stwierdzić, że nałożone cła istotnie uderzyły w przemysł tekstylny, przynosząc zauważalny spadek importu do USA wybranych grup produktów z Chin. Ponadto przegląd długoterminowych konsekwencji wskazuje, że trwająca wojna handlowa nie tylko negatywnie wpłynęła na makroekonomiczne podstawy gospodarki amerykańskiej, ale prawdopodobnie będzie miała długotrwały wpływ na globalne łańcuchy dostaw i produkcji.

The US-China trade war, initiated in March 2018, substantially transformed the trading partnership between the two largest economic powers. It directly influenced the profitability of domestic enterprises related to the export chain and harmed the domestic economy in China and its stock market. This study empirically examines the effects of the trade war on China’s stock market based on chronological events and tests whether it is the contagion effect or the present value effect. The empirical study supports the contagion effect because the impact of the US-China trade war differed significantly in different sectors only when the US announced its imposition of more tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese products. However, there is no apparent difference between the industries for other events, nor is there any significant difference between the industries in terms of long-term impact.

This paper uses data on the near universe of job adverts posted online in the US to study the impact of the 2018 trade war on US job opportunities. It develops measures of labor market exposure to three key channels of impact from the trade war: import protection for US producers, the higher cost of imported inputs for US producers, and exposure of US exporters to retaliatory tariffs. It finds evidence that both tariffs on imported inputs and retaliatory tariffs led to a relative decline in online job postings in affected commuting zones. These effects were stronger for lower skilled postings than for higher skill postings. By contrast, it does not find any evidence of positive impacts of import protection on job openings. It estimates that the tariffs led to a combined effect of 175,000 fewer job postings in 2018, or 0.6 percent of the US total, with two thirds of this aggregate decline due to the imported input tariffs and one third due to retaliatory tariffs.

Using monthly trade data from January 2018 to December 2019, we empirically examine the effects of the U.S.-China trade war on Taiwan’s exports as well as imports. On the export side, the tariff hike in the U.S. against imports from China may induce Taiwan to export to the U.S., that is, the substit ution effect. To investigate this hypothesis, we examine how U.S. tariffs on goods from China affect Taiwan ’s exports to the U.S. More directly, we also explore how China’s exports to the U.S. change Taiwan ese exports to the U.S. On the import side, Taiwan may increase imports of the intermediate inputs necessa ry to produce goods for the U.S. market, from China. Our empirical analyses confirmed the validity of these hypotheses. By contrast, we did not find a substitution effect in exports from Japan and South Korea.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued a statement Friday morning, July 6, 2018, confirming the outbreak of a trade war between the United States and China. The statement came after the United States imposed tariffs on many Chinese goods, in violation of international and bilateral agreements, and the destruction of the concept of free trade which the United States calls for following it. It is a war of opposite directions, especially the contradiction between the new Trump policy and the Chinese approach. The proof is what US Defense Secretary James Matisse announced in Singapore in early June 2018 of “the full strategy of the new United States, in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific,” where China was the “sole enemy of the United States” in China’s geostrategic region. Intentions have become publicized, and trade war between the two economic giants is turning into a reality. This paper will give an overview of the US-China scenario of trade war, then a focused analysis on the Trump’s administration economic decision regarding China, and the consequences of this decision.

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the trade war: US trade war tariffs boosted Trump’s support but foreign retaliation hurt Trump. In particular, the pro-Trump effects of US trade war tariffs were crucial for Trump crossing the recount thresholds in Georgia and Wisconsin. These effects cross political and racial lines, suggesting the mechanism operates through the impact on local economies rather than political polarization. Even more important politically, voters abandoned Trump in counties with large expansions of health insurance coverage since the Affordable Care Act, presumably fearing the roll-back of such expansion. Absent this anti-Trump effect, Trump would have been on the precipice of re-election by winning Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and only losing Wisconsin by a few thousand votes.

This paper provides evidence on the effects of US and Chinese trade policies on the 2020 US presidential election. In response to a series of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs, especially on US agricultural products, which largely affected Republican-leaning counties. The US government then subsidized US farmers by providing direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) to mitigate the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Using the universe of actual county-level MFP disbursement data, we first document that US agricultural subsidies relative to the Chinese retaliatory tariff exposure were especially higher in solidly Republican counties, implying that Trump allocated rents in exchange for political patronage. Then, we find that US agricultural subsidies outweighed Chinese retaliatory tariffs and led to an increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we uncover evidence that China’s retaliatory trade policy and US agricultural policy exacerbated political polarization in the US, especially the rural-urban divide.

Hegemony describes the dominance of a country or a person over others and Hegemonic Stability Theory is derived from this notion. According to this theory, a hegemon country is necessary to obtain and maintain a globally open and stable economy. The US has become the hegemon power of the world after the World War II. Trade policies are the main tools that a hegemon power uses to create pressure on the others. The US used this tool also on Turkey by imposing arms embargo after the Cyprus Peace Operation in 1974. Donald Trump elected as the president in 2017 and he started a global trade war by increasing the tariffs. However, the numbers show that the US continues to import from Turkey increasingly even though the high tariffs have been imposed since 2018. In this study, the cointegration relationship between the total value of Turkey’s exports to the US and the average weighted rate of most favored nation tariffs (MFN) applied to Turkey by the US are analyzed for 1991 – 2019 period. The results revealed that there is no cointegration relationship between the Turkey’s exports to the US and the MFN tariffs imposed to Turkey by the US. Hegemonya bir ülkenin ya da kişinin diğerleri üzerinde üstünlüğü tanımlar ve Hegemonyacı İstikrarı Teorisi de bu kavramdan türetilmiştir. Söz konusu teoriye göre küresel olarak açık ve istikrarlı bir ekonominin sağlanması ve devamlılığının korunması için hegemon bir ülkenin varlığı gereklidir. ABD 2. Dünya Savaşı’ndan itibaren dünyanın hegemon gücü haline gelmiştir. Ticaret politikaları da hegemon gücün diğerleri üzerinde baskı kurmak için kullandığı temel politikalardan biridir. ABD, bu aracı Türkiye üzerinde, 1974’deki Kıbrıs Barış Harekâtından sonra silah ambargosu uygulayarak kullanmıştır. 2017’de Donald Trump, başkan seçildikten sonra tarifeleri yükselterek küresel bir ticaret savaşı başlatmıştır. Ancak, rakamların da gösterdiği üzere, yükselen tarifelere rağmen ABD, Türkiye’den artan miktarlarda ithalat yapmaya devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, ABD’nin Türkiye’ye uyguladığı tarifelerin etkilerinin tespit edilebilmesi amacı ile Türkiye’nin ABD’ye yaptığı ihracatın toplam değeri ile ABD’nin Türkiye’ye en çok kayırılan ülke kapsamında uyguladığı gümrük vergilerinin ağırlıklı ortalaması arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi araştırılmıştır. 1991 – 2019 yıllarını kapsayan veriler kullanılarak yapılan çalışma, Türkiye’nin ABD’ye yaptığı toplam ihracat ile ABD’nin uyguladığı gümrük vergileri arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisi olmadığını ortaya koymaktadır.

RESUMEN: El desequilibrio de las relaciones de China y Estados Unidos, caracterizadas por la interdependencia económica en su cadena de producción dentro de sus sectores y la lucha por la hegemonía de una economía más globalizada, acentúan el riesgo que puede conllevar el proteccionismo para el resto de países. En el presente trabajo se analizarán las causas, implicaciones y, a través de un modelo de teoría de juegos, asignado pérdidas y ganancias y basándonos en estimaciones ex ante que analice el impacto sobre el PIB que tienen estas políticas, se analizará el desarrollo del conflicto, así como su posible solución para la guerra comercial. En cuanto al modelo de teoría de juegos que se expone, Drezner (2000) enuncia un modelo de coerción económica encuadrándose como un modelo de negociación secuencial, siendo un juego dinámico con información completa y perfecta. En este modelo, se incorporan las expectativas de conflictos futuros ya que tienen un efecto paradójico en contextos de disputas de política comercial. En primer lugar, los países que esperan conflictos frecuentes estarán más dispuestos a iniciar acciones proteccionistas, incluso si tales intentos tienen unas pérdidas altas. Los países que esperan pocos conflictos no amenazarán con sanciones a menos que incurran en pérdidas mínimos y el país rival tuviera pérdidas significativas. En el contexto de guerra comercial entre Estados Unidos y China, antes del inicio del conflicto, el Órgano de Solución de Diferencias (OSD) de la OMC se inició en 31 ocasiones, lo que hace que este modelo se ajuste a la evidencia empírica y pueda explicar cómo afecta a la toma de decisiones de ambos países. Los resultados de la aplicación del modelo son claros: el modelo explica los elementos que intervienen en la formación de incentivos a la hora de tomar decisiones, así como el desarrollo previsible del juego hasta la actualidad, llegando a un escenario desfavorable para ambos países. Sin embargo, esta situación no puede sostenerse de manera indefinida por lo que el factor temporal podría afectar a los elementos estudiados haciendo que el juego termine en un escenario más favorable para Estados Unidos. ABSTRACT: The imbalance in the relations between China and the United States, characterised by economic interdependence in their production chain within their sectors and the struggle for hegemony in a more globalised economy, accentuate the risk that protectionism may entail for the rest of the countries. This paper will analyse the causes, implications and, by means of a game theory model, assigning losses and gains and based on estimates that analyse the impact on GDP of these policies, the development of the conflict will be analysed, as well as its possible solution for the trade war. With regard to the game theory model presented, Drezner (2000) enunciates a model of economic coercion framed as a sequential bargaining model, belonging to dynamic games with complete and perfect information. In this model, expectations of future conflict are incorporated as they have a paradoxical effect in contexts of trade policy disputes. First, countries expecting frequent conflicts will be more willing to initiate protectionist actions, even if such attempts are costly. Countries that expect few conflicts will not threaten sanctions unless they incur minimal costs and the rival country would incur significant losses. In the US-China trade war context, prior to the onset of the conflict, the WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) was initiated 31 times, so it makes this model fit the empirical evidence and how it may affect the decision-making of both countries. The results of the application of the model are clear: the model explains the elements involved in the formation of decision-making incentives, as well as the foreseeable development of the game up to the present day. However, this situation cannot be sustained indefinitely, so the time factor could affect the elements studied, causing the game to end in a scenario more favourable to the United States. Grado en Economía

The ongoing trade war (or at least dispute) between the US and China has its roots in the early 2000s when American politicians and economists started complaining about the US trade deficit with China. Accusing China of wrong-doing, as far as the US trade deficit is concerned, is based on the three propositions that the yuan is undervalued against the dollar, that the trade deficit is caused by currency undervaluation, and that Chinese trade and exchange rate policies are illegal or at least immoral, designed to promote Chinese exports and obstruct imports. These propositions are examined critically, and empirical results are produced to show that the revaluation of the yuan and the imposition of tariffs will not produce the desired results. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The US–China trade relationship has expanded immensely after China’s reformation of its economy and liberalization in 1979. A very huge amount of trade takes place between the United States and China in terms of monetary value and quantity. China benefits the United States in several forms other than just trade, such as US firms seeking investment opportunities in China for their assembly units. Subsequently, China holds a huge amount of US treasury securities, and purchases US debt securities, which helps them to keep their interest rates low. However, even after the development of such a trade relationship, the United States has certain concerns relating to China’s intentions. From the United States’ point of view, China is not involved in a fair practice of trade. China has imposed state-directed policies that bend the flow of trade and investment opportunities. Furthermore, the United States has allegations against China pertaining to the issue of intellectual property rights along with mixed records on implementation of WTO obligations, establishment of procedures for impacting the value of its currency and restrictions on FDI. The United States claims that such policies from China’s side make a great impact on the US economy and thus is the concern of the Congress. The current president, Mr. Donald J. Trump, has pledged to promote the free and fair trade policy. So his administration has taken some severe steps to reduce the US bilateral trade deficit. The president first announced the imposition of tariffs on steel and aluminum at 25% and 15%, respectively. To this action of the United States, China retaliated by raising the tariffs on various goods that are imported from the United States. Furthermore, the United States claimed that it would take actions against Chinese intellectual property rights policies that could be a hindrance to the US stakeholders. Later, the United States released a two-stage plan to impose tariffs on Chinese imports that would directly affect Chinese industrial policies for which again there was retaliation by China by releasing their own two-stage plan for American imports that would adversely affect American industries. This paper is an attempt to analyze the effect of the trade war between the United States and China and briefly discusses about the impact of this war on China and the probable measures implemented by the country.

This paper studies adjustments in labor demand of firms exposed to the recent China-US trade war. Our analysis leverages information from a Chinese online job board and a firm-level measure of tariff exposure obtained from customs transactions data. Firms that are more exposed to US tariffs on Chinese goods responded by posting fewer job vacancies and offering lower wages. The latter is partly balanced out by increased non-wage compensation. We also find a negative relationship between US-tariff exposure and the educational background required in firms’ job ads. China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US does not appear to have a statistically significant systematic impact on hiring. The paper also reports heterogeneous adjustment patterns across firms of different size, ownership and product mix. Overall, the trade war reveals to have negative impact on firms and job-seekers in China.

This paper studies the hiring behavior of firms exposed to the recent China-US trade war. Our analysis leverages information from a Chinese online job board and a firm-level measure of tariff exposure obtained from customs transactions data. Firms that are more exposed to US tariffs on Chinese goods responded by posting fewer job vacancies and offering lower wages. The latter is partly balanced out by increased non-wage compensation. We also find a negative relationship between US-tariff exposure and the educational background required in firms’ job ads. China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US does not appear to have a statistically significant systematic impact on hiring. The paper also reports heterogeneous adjustment patterns across firms of different size, ownership and product mix. Overall, the trade war reveals to have negative impact on firms and job-seekers in China.

This paper studies the hiring behavior of firms exposed to the recent China-US trade war. Our analysis leverages information from a Chinese online job board and a firm-level measure of tariff exposure obtained from customs transactions data. Firms that are more exposed to US tariffs on Chinese goods responded by posting fewer job vacancies and offering lower wages. The latter is partly balanced out by increased non-wage compensation. We also find a negative relationship between US-tariff exposure and the educational background required in firms’ job ads. China’s retaliatory tariffs against the US does not appear to have a statistically significant systematic impact on hiring. The paper also reports heterogeneous adjustment patterns across firms of different size, ownership and product mix. Overall, the trade war reveals to have negative impact on firms and job-seekers in China.

Over the last three years, trade tensions between the United States (US) and China have transformed a fairly open bilateral trading environment into a rather protectionist one. The new administration of the United States has maintained most of the bilateral tariffs and non-tariff barriers put in place by the previous administration. Moreover, incentives to diversify trade partners and localisation have been intensified following COVID-19-induced global supply-chain disruptions. Continuing bilateral trade tensions between the world's largest economic powerhouse scan be expected to have significant impacts on the rest of the world. While it is intuitive to conclude that bilateral trade restrictions create new opportunities for others, deep economic interdependence through Global Value Chains (GVCs) complicate matters considerably. Impact assessment needs to consider supply-side relationships between each economy and the two GVC giants. Therefore, in this paper, we develop an analytical framework based on input-output data to assess how existing trade flows will be affected by tariff escalation between the US and China. The aim is to identify potential winners and losers among third-party economies. More specifically, we used product-level data and a new UN-ESCAP WWZ decomposition technique of MRIO trade in value-added data to (1) model tariff's impacts on US-China bilateral trade and then (2) track how third-countries might be impacted via international supply-chains: both negatively, via lower exports in affected (tariffed) links, as well as positively via enhanced exports demand in alternative ones. We find that the current trade war has been overall positive for third-party economies, shifting US$ 61.1 billion in net exports away from the US-China link towards other economies. Due to export asymmetries in the US-China bilateral trade relationship, opportunities for third-party economies emerge more from the US tariff imposition than a vice versa. Indeed, our model indicates that the supply-side reconfiguration to avoid US tariffs accounted for more than 80% of third-party economies' gains, equivalent to US$ 49.5 billion in net exports coming from China to the US diverted. Mexico, Canada, Republic of Korea, Germany and Japan are among the top beneficiaries. Ultimately, lingering trade tensions between the world's two largest economies will continue to pressure international trade downwards, while accelerating pre-existing trends, such as diversification of supply chains.

This paper examines the impact of special tariffs between China and the United States (US) on their indirect trade partners via spillover effects. We applied a Value-Added Real Effective Exchange Rate (VA-REER) index to simulate how an increase in tariffs induces changes in demand for goods from Indonesia and selected Asian partners. We used the Input–Output Database (WIOD) to simulate the spillover effects across partners via the Global Value Chain (GVC) using data from 2000 to 2014. The results suggest that demand is doubly more responsive to prices (tariffs) when value-added (VA-REER) index is used instead of the conventional REER index (gross trade). We found that US tariffs on Chinese goods have a negative spillover impact on Indonesia’s exports. Meanwhile, the Chinese tariffs on American goods lead to small increased demand for Indonesian exports. We also found that US and China become equally crucial for Indonesia under the Value-Added REER scheme, concluding that the conventional REER approach may have underestimated the impact of US tariffs on Chinese goods. Finally, we found that Indonesia would be at risk to trade shocks if the US applies tariffs on China, Asian partners (Japan and South Korea), and the European Union (EU).

The paper is intended to provide information on the trade war between China and the USA. It analyses the consequences of the trade dispute, discusses the impact on an Austrian company in the steel sector, gives an overview of possible strategies with which companies can reduce the negative effects of tariffs and discusses strategies that are good options for companies in the steel industry. The methodology applied included theoretical and empirical research based on quantitative analysis as well as quantitative research in the form of expert interviews. The results show that the trade war between China and the USA was in full swing until January 2020. The impacts do not only affect the parties involved, but also other parties such as the EU. Companies can use a variety of strategies to mitigate the negative effects of trade wars. The best strategy for a company depends on the structure of the company, its products and its competitors. The paper adds new insights to the existing literature on the trade war between China and the US and its effects, strategies to mitigate the negative effects of tariffs and discussions on optimal strategies for companies in the steel industry.

Предметом исследования является освещение торговой войны между КНР и США иностранными СМИ. Целью работы является выявление и анализ восприятия массмедиа торговой войны КНР и США. Для написания работы использовались методы анализа и синтеза для получения информации из СМИ, а также контент-анализ для подробного изучения оценок массмедиа. Задачи, которые решались в ходе исследования: 1. Выявление признаков торговых войн. 2. Изучение предпосылок начала торговой войны США и КНР, развития конфликта. 3. Анализ структуры работы СМИ, их функции. 4. Рассмотрение европейских СМИ о торговой войне, выявление оценок. 5. Изучение оценок азиатских массмедиа о конфликте США и КНР. 6. Анализ средств массовой информации США и Китая. В выпускной квалификационной работе даны общие понятия об экономических торговых войнах, средствах влияния массмедиа на политическое общественное сознание, изучена хронология конфликта. Проведен подробный анализ оценок, критики и мнения СМИ различных государств о данной торговой войне. В результате проведенного исследования было выявлено, что в целом мнения и взгляды средств массовой информации о конфликте являются схожими., The aim of the work is to identify and analyze the perception of the media of the trade war of the PRC and the USA. To write the paper, analysis and synthesis methods were used to obtain information from the media, as well as content analysis for a detailed study of mass media estimates. The research set the following goals: 1. Identification of signs of trade wars. 2. The study of the prerequisites for the start of a trade war between the USA and China, the development of conflict. 3. Analysis of the structure of the media, its functionality. 4. Consideration of the European media about the trade war, identifying estimates. 5. The study of the estimates of the Asian mass media about the conflict between the United States and China. 6. Analysis of the US and Chinese media. In the final qualification work, general concepts are given about economic trade wars, the means of influence of the mass media on the political public consciousness. The history of the beginning of the war, its development and consequences are studied. A detailed analysis of the assessments, criticisms and opinions based on the media about the trade war of various states has been carried out. The outcome of the research was revealing that, in general, the opinions and views of the media about the conflict are similar.

On January 22, 2018, the Trump administration imposed Safeguard Tariffs on $8.5 billion of imports of solar panel and $1.8 billion for washing machines. This move marked the beginning of what is now considered a trade war the USA is fighting against China and other traditional American trade partners such as EU and NAFTA members states. The “official” motivation for Trump’s trade war is that the persisting US trade deficit depends on “unfair competition” by trade partners. Tariffs are therefore seen as a political tool for levelling the field of international trade. In this paper we present and discuss two main objections to this view: the first is that current and trade account disequilibria are ultimately due to differences between domestic savings and investments driven by macroeconomic fundamentals which in general do not depend only on the trade policies of foreign countries. The second objection consists in the fact that the role of the US dollar as the “world’s money” in the current asymmetric international monetary system makes the US trade deficit both inevitable and sustainable in the long run. Unless protectionist measures permanently affect the domestic savings-investment balance they alone cannot eliminate a structural trade deficit.