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The Pacific island countries (PICs) are some of the most exposed to frequent natural disasters and climate shocks, and their vulnerability is increasing due to mounting effects of climate change as well as demographic and economic forces. Natural disasters hit the poorest hardest and have long-term consequences for human development. Social protection programs and systems have an important role in helping poor and vulnerable populations cope with the impacts of shocks as well as build long-term resilience. This paper discusses the potential role of social protection for disaster and climate risk reduction and management in PICs. It presents evidence and lessons from other regions, providing examples of tools and entry points for the development of climate, and disaster, responsive social protection interventions and context-specific recommendations for PICs.

This study examines the role of social protection programming, and programming design and implementation features, that are prominent in fragile and conflict-affected states. The main objective is to build on existing, available information from a sample of fragile and conflict-affected countries and develop operational guidance that addresses policy, design, and implementation issues and offers operational solutions for social protection programming and policy making in different fragile settings. The analysis showcases the universe of social protection objectives that are evident in these countries as well as the programming trends, types, coverage, and expenditure patterns. The paper also examines dimensions specific to fragile and conflict-affected settings in implementing social protection and labor programs, such as social cohesion, the role of community-driven development, and postwar benefits. Finally, the study highlights social protection and labor program delivery in seven different country contexts, and discusses the country-specific programming options chosen to achieve the objectives and overcome capacity and operational constraints.

During a decade of rapid growth, more jobs and higher wages dramatically reduced poverty and drove down historically high levels of inequality. Governments in the region complemented the gains from growth with investments in social protection policies, further reducing poverty and inequality. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean are rightfully proud of these achievements. As the region prepares for a long period of slower growth and tighter budgets, the value of their investment in building social protection systems will grow. Social protection can help protect social gains as labor earnings and employment fall. The evidence accumulated from the region’s experience of which social protection interventions work and which do not, will be an essential resource to guide difficult policy decisions. Countries will move ahead with the long run development of their diverse social protection systems as they are able. But in the shorter run three areas of policy action will rise in priority: (i) protecting poor and vulnerable people through the lean years; (ii) finding fiscal savings in reforms to large and regressive items of social policy; and (iii) fielding labor market initiatives to support workers during a long, slack period and prepare them for economic recovery.

A new domestic political stalemate has developed while spillovers from the Syrian conflict further exacerbated. A mid-year lull in the security situation gave a temporary boost to consumer and investor sentiment. Lebanon’s current account deficit remains elevated, albeit lower than during the pre-crisis period. Lebanon’s fiscal position continues to deteriorate. Banque du Liban maintained an expansionary monetary stance to support the economy, while sustaining confidence in the Lebanese pound. Conservatism in financial regulations and private sector banking helped maintain a well-capitalized and resilient domestic banking sector, despite sluggish growth and downgrades by international rating agencies. The expanding political stalemate at home and regional spillovers pose significant downside risk to growth. The Lebanon economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon.

Since the peak of the economic crisis, poverty reduction in Armenia has made limited progress, with poverty rates moving from 34.1 percent in 2009 to 32 percent in 2013. This slow pace has been mirrored by the limited progress of the labor market (LM), particularly in terms of job-creation. In 2013, about 36 percent of people worked in the agricultural sector, and about half of all workers earned wages through informal jobs. These conditions highlight the need to have a robust social protection (SP) system that not only offers adequate protection to people living in poverty but can also serve as a tool to increase the quality of human capital, which in turn can help improve their economic opportunities. The government of Armenia (GoA) has shown a clear interest in building its infrastructure to deliver SP services through integrated social service centers as a means to better harness its investment in SP. Its vision is to ultimately implement an integrated social policy that personalizes interventions and tries to address multiple constraints that people face when trying to escape poverty— not only through the provision of cash benefits. The objective of this policy note is twofold. First, it provides a diagnostic of the SP system in order to identify the key issues that could be addressed to enhance its effectiveness and efficiency to achieve greater poverty reduction. Second, the note outlines a set of options—policies and reforms—for the GoA to consider as it continues to strengthen its poverty-reduction strategy. It is important to note that the focus of the report is on social assistance (SA) and LM policies for vulnerable groups. Other key aspects of SP—such as pensions, labor regulations, or the functioning of the LM as a whole—are not addressed in this report, and they have been the subject of extensive analysis elsewhere.

In 2008, when food prices rose precipitously to record highs, international attention and local policy in many countries focused on safety nets as part of the response. Now that food prices are high again, the issue of appropriate responses is again on the policy agenda. This note sets out a framework for making quick, qualitative assessments of how well countries' safety nets prepare them for a rapid policy response to rising food prices should the situation warrant. The framework is applied using data from spring 2011, presenting a snap?shot analysis of what is a dynamically changing situation. Based on this data safety net readiness is assessed in 13 vulnerable countries based on the following criteria: the presence of safety net programs, program coverage, administrative capacity, and to a lesser degree, targeting effectiveness. It is argued that these criteria will remain the same throughout time, even if the sample countries affected will be expected to vary. Based on this analysis the note highlights that though a number of countries are more prepared than they were in 2008, there is still a significant medium term agenda on safety net preparedness in the face of crisis. In this context, strategic lessons from the 2008 food crisis response are presented to better understand the response options and challenges facing governments and policy makers. The note concludes by calling for continued investment and scale up of safety nets to mitigate poverty impacts and help prevent long term setbacks in nutrition and poverty.

Several East Asian countries, in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, are considering an expansion of their social safety net programs. In many cases, existing delivery mechanisms for social assistance in the region tend to be basic, in line with the small size of programs. In a context of coverage expansion and proliferation of new programs, the risk of creating increasingly complex systems characterized by cross-incentives is high. Lack of coordination, ambiguous criteria for identifying and selecting beneficiaries, low administrative capacity, lack of transparency and limited beneficiary participation pose risks for program effectiveness and can decrease accountability. Good governance can improve program outcomes through effective program coordination, stronger accountability arrangements, provider incentives and greater transparency and participation. This paper proposes an analytical framework to systematically identify governance risks and constraints which, if removed, could improve the outcomes of modern social assistance programs.

This paper makes the case for why safety nets are an important tool for managing the risk of natural hazards. The use of safety nets is advocated both ex ante, to prevent and mitigate the impact of natural disaster and ex post, to cope with the impacts of natural shocks. Firstly, the paper explores the implications of contextual factors to be taken into account in the design of an effective safety net system to respond to the needs generated by natural disasters. Learning from the responses to a number of recent natural disasters, a typology of the different types of natural hazards which require different approaches to reduce their risk is introduced. Secondly, the paper considers some 'guidelines' for improving the design and implementation of safety nets either to prevent and/or to recover from natural disasters. Finally, some conclusions and recommendations for more effective safety net and suggestions for addressing key issues are outlined.

The main focus of the social protection and labor portfolio is on strengthening client's institutional capacity in the design and implementation of programs, but projects are not well equipped to track progress in this area. Correspondingly, there is a need to strengthen approaches to measuring and monitoring a 'missing middle' of service delivery, precisely those areas for which counterpart institutions are responsible during the course of a project. In particular, better measures of the primary functions of social protection and labor agencies are needed, such as identifying and enrolling beneficiaries, targeting, payment systems, fraud and error control, performance monitoring of service delivery providers, responsiveness to citizens, transparency, efficiency, management information systems and monitoring and evaluation systems. New World Bank initiatives particularly standard core indicators by sector and the introduction of results based investment lending call for substantial improvements in the use of monitoring and evaluation (M&E). Impact evaluations are included in about half of projects and should continue to be used selectively and strategically, particularly when the program is innovative, replicable and/ or scalable to reach a broader set of beneficiaries, addresses a knowledge gap and is likely to have a substantial policy impact. Structuring evaluations around core themes with common outcome measures is fundamental to building a global knowledge base on development effectiveness.

Social Safety Nets (SSN) are defined as non?contributory transfer programs targeted to the poor or those vulnerable to poverty and shocks. About half of World Bank social protection projects in the reviewed cohort are SSN. They are mostly non-emergency investment operations with a higher presence in Latin America and the Caribbean and Africa regions. Projects aimed at strengthening country's safety nets system, including their targeting, administration and service quality, are the most common type of SSN interventions (25 percent). These are closely followed by conditional cash transfers (20 percent), and health, nutrition and education projects (15 percent). The remaining projects are a mixture of public works; food crisis mitigation measures and other types of safety nets (social inclusion, housing, and technical assistance).