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The well-established practice of time series analysis involves estimating deterministic, non-stationary trend and seasonality components followed by learning the residual stochastic, stationary components. Recently, it has been shown that one can learn the deterministic non-stationary components accurately using multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (mSSA) in the absence of a correlated stationary component; meanwhile, in the absence of deterministic non-stationary components, the Autoregressive (AR) stationary component can also be learnt readily, e.g. via Ordinary Least Squares (OLS). However, a theoretical underpinning of multi-stage learning algorithms involving both deterministic and stationary components has been absent in the literature despite its pervasiveness. We resolve this open question by establishing desirable theoretical guarantees for a natural two-stage algorithm, where mSSA is first applied to estimate the non-stationary components despite the presence of a correlated stationary AR component, which is subsequently learned from the residual time series. We provide a finite-sample forecasting consistency bound for the proposed algorithm, SAMoSSA, which is data-driven and thus requires minimal parameter tuning. To establish theoretical guarantees, we overcome three hurdles: (i) we characterize the spectra of Page matrices of stable AR processes, thus extending the analysis of mSSA; (ii) we extend the analysis of AR process identification in the presence of arbitrary bounded perturbations; (iii) we characterize the out-of-sample or forecasting error, as opposed to solely considering model identification. Through representative empirical studies, we validate the superior performance of SAMoSSA compared to existing baselines. Notably, SAMoSSA's ability to account for AR noise structure yields improvements ranging from 5% to 37% across various benchmark datasets.

In addition to its public health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic has led to the shutdown and closure of workplaces with an estimated total cost of more than $16 trillion. Given the long hours an average person spends in buildings and indoor environments, this research article proposes data-driven control strategies to design optimal indoor airflow to minimize the exposure of occupants to viral pathogens in built environments. A general control framework is put forward for designing an optimal velocity field and proximal policy optimization, a reinforcement learning algorithm is employed to solve the control problem in a data-driven fashion. The same framework is used for optimal placement of disinfectants to neutralize the viral pathogens as an alternative to the airflow design when the latter is practically infeasible or hard to implement. We show, via simulation experiments, that the control agent learns the optimal policy in both scenarios within a reasonable time. The proposed data-driven control framework in this study will have significant societal and economic benefits by setting the foundation for an improved methodology in designing case-specific infection control guidelines that can be realized by affordable ventilation devices and disinfectants.

In this work, inspired by secret sharing schemes, we introduce a privacy-preserving approach for network consensus, by which all nodes in a network can reach an agreement on their states without exposing the individual state to neighbors. With the privacy degree defined for the agents, the proposed method makes the network resistant to the collusion of any given number of neighbors, and protects the consensus procedure from communication eavesdropping. Unlike existing works, the proposed privacy-preserving algorithm is resilient to node failures. When a node fails, the method offers the possibility of rebuilding the lost node via the information kept in its neighbors, even though none of the neighbors knows the exact state of the failing node. Moreover, it is shown that the proposed method can achieve consensus and average consensus almost surely, when the agents have arbitrary privacy degrees and a common privacy degree, respectively. To illustrate the theory, two numerical examples are presented., Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures

We propose a means to relate properties of an interconnected system to its separate component systems in the presence of cascade-like phenomena. Building on a theory of interconnection reminiscent of the behavioral approach to systems theory, we introduce the notion of generativity, and its byproduct, generative effects. Cascade effects, enclosing contagion phenomena and cascading failures, are seen as instances of generative effects. The latter are precisely the instances where properties of interest are not preserved or behave very badly when systems interact. The goal is to overcome that obstruction. We will show how to extract mathematical objects from the systems, that encode their generativity: their potential to generate new phenomena upon interaction. Those objects may then be used to link the properties of the interconnected system to its separate systems. Such a link will be executed through the use of exact sequences from commutative algebra., 31 pages

We revisit the behavioral approach to systems theory and make explicit the abstract pattern that governs it. Our end goal is to use that pattern to understand interaction-related phenomena that emerge when systems interact. Rather than thinking of a system as a pair $(\mathbb{U}, \mathcal{B})$, we begin by thinking of it as an injective map from $\mathcal{B} \rightarrow \mathbb{U}$. This relative perspective naturally brings about the sought structure, which we summarize in three points. First, the separation of behavioral equations and behavior is developed through two spaces, one of syntax and another of semantics, linked by an interpretation map. Second, the notion of interconnection and variable sharing is shown to be a construction of the same nature as that of gluing topological spaces or taking amalgamated sums of algebraic objects. Third, the notion of interconnection instantiates to both the syntax space and the semantics space, and the interpretation map is shown to preserve the interconnection when going from syntax to semantics. This pattern, in its generality, is made precise by borrowing very basic constructs from the language of categories and functors., 25 pages

We review selected results related to robustness of networked systems in finite and asymptotically large size regimes, under static and dynamical settings. In the static setting, within the framework of flow over finite networks, we discuss the effect of physical constraints on robustness to loss in link capacities. In the dynamical setting, we review several settings in which small gain type analysis provides tight robustness guarantees for linear dynamics over finite networks towards worst-case and stochastic disturbances. We also discuss network flow dynamic settings where nonlinear techniques facilitate in understanding the effect on robustness of constraints on capacity and information, substituting information with control action, and cascading failure. We also contrast the latter with a representative contagion model. For asymptotically large networks, we discuss the role of network properties in connecting microscopic shocks to emergent macroscopic fluctuations under linear dynamics as well as for economic networks at equilibrium. Through the review of these results, the paper aims to achieve two objectives. First, to highlight selected settings in which the role of interconnectivity structure of a network on its robustness is well-understood. Second, to highlight a few additional settings in which existing system theoretic tools give tight robustness guarantees, and which are also appropriate avenues for future network-theoretic investigations., To appear in Annual Review of Control, Robotics, and Autonomous Systems

We address the problem of learning the parameters of a stable linear time invariant (LTI) system or linear dynamical system (LDS) with unknown latent space dimension, or order, from a single time--series of noisy input-output data. We focus on learning the best lower order approximation allowed by finite data. Motivated by subspace algorithms in systems theory, where the doubly infinite system Hankel matrix captures both order and good lower order approximations, we construct a Hankel-like matrix from noisy finite data using ordinary least squares. This circumvents the non-convexities that arise in system identification, and allows accurate estimation of the underlying LTI system. Our results rely on careful analysis of self-normalized martingale difference terms that helps bound identification error up to logarithmic factors of the lower bound. We provide a data-dependent scheme for order selection and find an accurate realization of system parameters, corresponding to that order, by an approach that is closely related to the Ho-Kalman subspace algorithm. We demonstrate that the proposed model order selection procedure is not overly conservative, i.e., for the given data length it is not possible to estimate higher order models or find higher order approximations with reasonable accuracy., Comment: Restructuring the paper

We consider the problem of robustness in large consensus networks that occur in many areas such as distributed optimization. Robustness, in this context, is the scaling of performance measures, e.g. H2-norm, as a function of network dimension. We provide a formal framework to quantify the relation between such performance scaling and the convergence speed of the network. Specifically, we provide upper and lower bounds for the convergence speed in terms of robustness and discuss how these bounds scale with the network topology. The main contribution of this work is that we obtain tight bounds, that hold regardless of network topology. The work here also encompasses some results in convergence time analysis in previous literature., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, IEEE American Control Conference 2018 (Accepted; To be published)

We investigate the ability of a homogeneous collection of deferrable energy loads to behave as a battery; that is, to absorb and release energy in a controllable fashion up to fixed and predetermined limits on volume, charge rate and discharge rate. We derive explicit bounds on the battery capacity that can be offered, and show that there is a fundamental trade-off between the abilities of collective load to absorb and release energy at high aggregate rates. Finally, we introduce a new class of dynamic priority-driven feedback policies that balance these abilities, and characterize the batteries that they can emulate., arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1610.01973

Strong resilience properties of dynamical flow networks are analyzed for distributed routing policies. The latter are characterized by the property that the way the inflow at a non-destination node gets split among its outgoing links is allowed to depend only on local information about the current particle densities on the outgoing links. The strong resilience of the network is defined as the infimum sum of link-wise flow capacity reductions under which the network cannot maintain the asymptotic total inflow to the destination node to be equal to the inflow at the origin. A class of distributed routing policies that are locally responsive to local information is shown to yield the maximum possible strong resilience under such local information constraints for an acyclic dynamical flow network with a single origin-destination pair. The maximal strong resilience achievable is shown to be equal to the minimum node residual capacity of the network. The latter depends on the limit flow of the unperturbed network and is defined as the minimum, among all the non-destination nodes, of the sum, over all the links outgoing from the node, of the differences between the maximum flow capacity and the limit flow of the unperturbed network. We propose a simple convex optimization problem to solve for equilibrium limit flows of the unperturbed network that minimize average delay subject to strong resilience guarantees, and discuss the use of tolls to induce such an equilibrium limit flow in transportation networks. Finally, we present illustrative simulations to discuss the connection between cascaded failures and the resilience properties of the network., 33 pages, 7 figures, journal submission

Robustness of distributed routing policies is studied for dynamical flow networks, with respect to adversarial disturbances that reduce the link flow capacities. A dynamical flow network is modeled as a system of ordinary differential equations derived from mass conservation laws on a directed acyclic graph with a single origin-destination pair and a constant inflow at the origin. Routing policies regulate the way the inflow at a non-destination node gets split among its outgoing links as a function of the current particle density, while the outflow of a link is modeled to depend on the current particle density on that link through a flow function. The dynamical flow network is called partially transferring if the total inflow at the destination node is asymptotically bounded away from zero, and its weak resilience is measured as the minimum sum of the link-wise magnitude of all disturbances that make it not partially transferring. The weak resilience of a dynamical flow network with arbitrary routing policy is shown to be upper-bounded by the network's min-cut capacity, independently of the initial flow conditions. Moreover, a class of distributed routing policies that rely exclusively on local information on the particle densities, and are locally responsive to that, is shown to yield such maximal weak resilience. These results imply that locality constraints on the information available to the routing policies do not cause loss of weak resilience. Some fundamental properties of dynamical flow networks driven by locally responsive distributed policies are analyzed in detail, including global convergence to a unique limit flow., Comment: 32 pages, 5 figures, journal submission

This paper analyzes stability conditions for wholesale electricity markets under real-time retail pricing and realistic consumption models with memory, which explicitly take into account previous electricity prices and consumption levels. By passing on the current retail price of electricity from supplier to consumer and feeding the observed consumption back to the supplier, a closed-loop dynamical system for electricity prices and consumption arises whose stability is to be investigated. Under mild assumptions on the generation cost of electricity and consumers' backlog disutility functions, we show that, for consumer models with price memory only, market stability is achieved if the ratio between the consumers' marginal backlog disutility and the suppliers' marginal cost of supply remains below a fixed threshold. Further, consumer models with price and consumption memory can result in greater stability regions and faster convergence to the equilibrium compared to models with price memory alone, if consumption deviations from nominal demand are adequately penalized., 8 pages, 7 Figures, accepted to the 2017 American Control Conference

We investigate the ability of a homogeneous collection of deferrable energy loads to behave as a battery; that is, to absorb and release energy in a controllable fashion up to fixed and predetermined limits on volume, charge rate and discharge rate. We derive bounds on the battery capacity that can be realized and show that there are fundamental trade-offs between battery parameters. By characterizing the state trajectories under scheduling policies that emulate two illustrative batteries, we show that the trade-offs occur because the states that allow the loads to absorb and release energy at high aggregate rates are conflicting.

We propose a dynamical model for cascading failures in single-commodity network flows. In the proposed model, the network state consists of flows and activation status of the links. Network dynamics is determined by a, possibly state-dependent and adversarial, disturbance process that reduces flow capacity on the links, and routing policies at the nodes that have access to the network state, but are oblivious to the presence of disturbance. Under the proposed dynamics, a link becomes irreversibly inactive either due to overload condition on itself or on all of its immediate downstream links. The coupling between link activation and flow dynamics implies that links to become inactive successively are not necessarily adjacent to each other, and hence the pattern of cascading failure under our model is qualitatively different than standard cascade models. The magnitude of a disturbance process is defined as the sum of cumulative capacity reductions across time and links of the network, and the margin of resilience of the network is defined as the infimum over the magnitude of all disturbance processes under which the links at the origin node become inactive. We propose an algorithm to compute an upper bound on the margin of resilience for the setting where the routing policy only has access to information about the local state of the network. For the limiting case when the routing policies update their action as fast as network dynamics, we identify sufficient conditions on network parameters under which the upper bound is tight under an appropriate routing policy. Our analysis relies on making connections between network parameters and monotonicity in network state evolution under proposed dynamics.

We consider a dynamical formulation of network flows, whereby the network is modeled as a switched system of ordinary differential equations derived from mass conservation laws on directed graphs with a single origin-destination pair and a constant inflow at the origin. The rate of change of the density on each link of the network equals the difference between the inflow and the outflow on that link. The inflow to a link is determined by the total flow arriving to the tail node of that link and the routing policy at that tail node. The outflow from a link is modeled to depend on the current density on that link through a flow function. Every link is assumed to have finite capacity for density and the flow function is modeled to be strictly increasing up to the maximum density. A link becomes inactive when the density on it reaches the capacity. A node fails if all its outgoing links become inactive, and such node failures can propagate through the network due to rerouting of flow. We prove some properties of these dynamical networks and study the resilience of such networks under distributed routing policies with respect to perturbations that reduce link-wise flow functions. In particular, we propose an algorithm to compute upper bounds on the maximum resilience over all distributed routing policies, and discuss examples that highlight the role of cascading failures on the resilience of the network., National Science Foundation (U.S.). Office of Emerging Frontiers in Research and Innovation (ARES Grant 0735956), United States. Air Force Office of Scientific Research (Grant FA9550-09-1-0538)

Original manuscript: June 7, 2011, The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power systems with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, real-time pricing creates a closed-loop feedback system between the physical layer and the market layer of the system. In the absence of a carefully designed control law, such direct feedback can increase sensitivity and lower the system's robustness to uncertainty in demand and generation. It is shown that price volatility can be characterized in terms of the system's maximal relative price elasticity, defined as the maximal ratio of the generalized price-elasticity of consumers to that of the producers. As this ratio increases, the system may become more volatile. Since new demand response technologies increase the price-elasticity of demand, and since increased penetration of distributed generation can also increase the uncertainty in price-based demand response, the theoretical findings suggest that the architecture under examination can potentially lead to increased volatility. This study highlights the need for assessing architecture systematically and in advance, in order to optimally strike the trade-offs between volatility/robustness and performance metrics such as economic efficiency and environmental efficiency.

Author's final manuscript: September 29, 2011, This paper examines the value of storage in securing reliability of a system with uncertain supply and demand, and supply friction. The storage is frictionless as a supply source, but it cannot be filled up instantaneously. The focus is on application to an energy network in which the nominal supply and demand are assumed to match perfectly, while deviations from the nominal values are modeled as random shocks with stochastic arrivals. Due to friction, the random shocks cannot be tracked by the main supply sources. Storage, when available, can be used to compensate, fully or partially, for the surge in demand or sudden drop in supply. The problem of optimal utilization of storage with the objective of maximizing system reliability is formulated as minimization of the expected discounted cost of blackouts over an infinite horizon. It is shown that when the stage cost is linear in the size of the blackout, the optimal policy is myopic in the sense that all shocks will be compensated by storage up to the available level of storage. However, when the stage cost is strictly convex, it may be optimal to curtail some of the demand and allow a small blackout in the interest of maintaining a higher level of reserve, which may help avoid a large blackout in the future. The value of storage capacity in improving reliability, as well as the effects of the associated optimal policies under different stage costs on the probability distribution of blackouts are examined., National Science Foundation (U.S.), Siemens-MIT Alliance