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We examined the degree to which 200-m and 400-m Individual Medley (IM) performance was related to sprint-, middle- and long-distance events before a swimmer reached a Top-20 world ranking. A retrospective longitudinal modelling study was conducted. Data on Top-20 swimmers between 2010 and 2018 were obtained from publicly available websites. A general linear model was used to examine associations between 200-m and 400-mIM performance (FINA ranking points) and performance in sprint, middle-distance and distance events in the previous two years. In the 200-mIM, there were significant associations (p < 0.001) between prior competition results obtained for both the 200-mIM (r = 0.80; β = 0.543) and 400-m IM (r = 0.70; β = 0.317) events before the Top-20 performance in 200-mIM in the year of the Top-20. Sprint distance events were associated (p < 0.006; r = 0.39; β = 0.088) with 200-mIM (t). Each additional 10 FINA points in the 200-mIM in each of the two years preceding the Top-20 performance. were associated with an increase of 5 FINA points in 200-mIM in in the year of the Top-20 (goodness of fit R2 = 0.70). There were similar associations (p < 0.001) for a Top 20-FINA 400-mIM performance with both 200-mIM (r = 0.72; β = 0.385) and 400-m IM (r = 0.79; β = 0.492) events in the two years before a swimmer reached the Top20. Middle-distance events were associated with 400-mIM performance (p < 0.001; r = 0.53; β = 0.163). Each additional 10 FINA points in 400-mIM in in each of the two years preceding the Top-20 performance were associated with an increase of 5 FINA points in in the year that a swimmer reached the Top-20 (goodness of fit R2 = 0.75). The specificity and complexity of the IM require a thorough preparation in this event for worldclass performances. The 200-mIM is more closely related to sprint distance events, whereas middle-distance events support preparations for the 400-mIM.

The aims of the present research were to estimate the age of peak performance (APP) and to examine the role of previous experience at the world-level open water race performances. Finishing positions and age of swimmers (639 females and 738 males) in the 10-km events of World Championship (WCH) and Olympic Games (OG) from 2000 to 2019 were obtained from the official results websites. Years of previous experience were computed using the number of previous participations in WCH or OG. APP was estimated using quadratic models of the 10th percentile top race positions and resulted in 28.94 years old for males (R2 = 0.551) and 27.40 years old for females (R2 = 0.613). Regression analysis revealed an improvement of 1.36 or 8.19 finishing positions for each additional year of age or experience, respectively (R2 = 0.157). However, significant differences (p < 0.001) between age and experience showed that the swimmer’s age became less relevant for performance as years of experience increased. These results, in terms of age, are in line with other mass-start disciplines of similar duration (≈2 h) and, in terms of experience, confirm the importance of previous participation in improving tactical decision making during open water races.

Purpose: This study aimed to compare the performance progression model of the European countries that participated in the World Championships (WCs) from 2006 to 2017. Data from all championships were compared between the top five (1–5) and the next five (6–10) countries on the medal table. The study also identifies the ages of peak performance in senior swimmers, the annual ratio of progression and the effect of junior performance on senior success by these groups of countries. We hypothesized that: (1) countries with swimmers achieving better performances at the Junior WCs would also be higher in the medal ranking at the Senior WCs and (2) a higher annual performance progression in their swimmers increases the chances of countries being ranked in the top 5 at the Senior World Championships.Methods: Participant’s data from all Junior and Senior WCs between 2006 and 2017 were obtained from FINA. The final, filtered database included 629 swimmers after removing those participating only in the Junior WCs and selecting swimmers from the top 10 countries. One-way ANOVA, F test, and decision tree methods were used to examine differences between the top (1–5) and the next best (6–10) countries on the medal table for first participation age, annual progress, and best-time in junior and senior championships.Results: There was no difference (p = 0.492 and p = 0.97) between 1–5 and 6–10 ranked countries for best senior time and annual progression, respectively. Countries ranked in the top 5 at the Senior WCs had swimmers with faster times at the Junior WCs (p > 0.001). Decision tree analysis found that best-time at the Junior WC had the greatest explanatory capacity (94%).Conclusion: European countries with swimmers who perform best at the Junior WCs are also likely to be in the top 5 countries that win medals at the Senior WCs.